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Search: Posts Made By: seemasp
Forum: Options January 17th, 2014, 02:53 PM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,951,216
Posted By seemasp
My NG Take

I also see lowest inventory levels about same and in past inventory has dropped below 1 trillion levels though it was before changed production scene. We never ran out of gas however many have run...
Forum: Options January 16th, 2014, 04:22 PM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,951,216
Posted By seemasp
If you don't want to exit but also want some...

If you don't want to exit but also want some protection again continued move higher, you can buy some lower strike (and lower volatility) calls to convert the naked calls into ratio spread position....
Forum: Options December 31st, 2013, 01:28 PM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,951,216
Posted By seemasp
Ratio Spread vs Naked Shorts

In my observation, ratio spread and naked short options are strategies for different type of markets. Naked short is usually employed when selling against trend (existing or anticipated due to...
Forum: Options December 27th, 2013, 01:28 PM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,951,216
Posted By seemasp
It was more of very high volatility in March NG...

It was more of very high volatility in March NG and some price action reading (Al Brooks style) that attracted my attention. Price action wise - spike phase just ended last week and channel is...
Forum: Options December 27th, 2013, 09:29 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,951,216
Posted By seemasp
Update

Closing this spread now for about 9 cent credit (5.20 for 600 calls and 35.00 for 425 calls) bringing total profit to 2000 (1100 + 900) on margin of about 7000 (1000 initial + 6000 spare) in a week -...
Forum: Options December 24th, 2013, 09:55 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,951,216
Posted By seemasp
Right now this spread can be closed for about 2...

Right now this spread can be closed for about 2 cent debit leaving net profit of about 900 in 2 days. Or you can hold on for a while and take chance that it would go in credit and close there. I am...
Forum: Options December 23rd, 2013, 03:06 PM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,951,216
Posted By seemasp
I think we will go very close to or above 5.00 to...

I think we will go very close to or above 5.00 to flush out all shorts - 5.00 may be max threshold of pain for most of the shorts and market often goes to those points and then return...Personally I...
Forum: Options December 23rd, 2013, 01:25 PM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,951,216
Posted By seemasp
This spread can lose money and actually lose lot...

This spread can lose money and actually lose lot of money once price goes beyond 600. Also it can lose money if volatility goes even much higher and price goes up very rapidly. There fore one has to...
Forum: Options December 23rd, 2013, 12:30 PM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,951,216
Posted By seemasp
Delta is net negative only because of very high...

Delta is net negative only because of very high volatility (and hence high delta) of deep otm calls - 65% vs about 42% for atm calls. If you use flat volatility then delta is actually positive (which...
Forum: Options December 23rd, 2013, 11:55 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,951,216
Posted By seemasp
There is a mistake in value of calls that you...

There is a mistake in value of calls that you used. It should be 4600 and 13000 leaving gain of 9600.

If so then 9600 - 3050 would be a credit of 6550 - very significant.
Forum: Options December 23rd, 2013, 11:51 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,951,216
Posted By seemasp
I am not totally sure of continued uptrend and it...

I am not totally sure of continued uptrend and it can reverse anytime but after reversal you do not get much credit in this type of trade.

Also even with uptrend I do not see much loss unless...
Forum: Options December 23rd, 2013, 11:24 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,951,216
Posted By seemasp
Yes that can work and many other combinations. ...

Yes that can work and many other combinations.

I went for 425/600 combination as I anticipate current trend to end in next month or so around 500 to 525. After confirmed reversal (around 450 to...
Forum: Options December 23rd, 2013, 09:51 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,951,216
Posted By seemasp
NG Trade Opportunity

Here is a ratio trade opportunity that the high volatility in March NG options has given.

Buy 1 March 425 call for about 0.46 and sell 5 March 6 calls for about 0.114 for net credit of about...
Forum: Options December 21st, 2013, 09:28 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,951,216
Posted By seemasp
Weather for the reporting week (to be released on...

Weather for the reporting week (to be released on 12/27) was above normal temperatures while the draw estimates are much above normal. Any insights into why the draw this year is way above average?...
Forum: Options December 20th, 2013, 02:42 PM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,951,216
Posted By seemasp
My take - it is expansion of volatility in March...

My take - it is expansion of volatility in March contract (fear of running out of gas). Volatility of at the money call is 40% but 7 strike is almost 70%. Crazy difference. That is making some very...
Forum: Options December 18th, 2013, 07:17 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,951,216
Posted By seemasp
Yes limiting the number of contracts reduces the...

Yes limiting the number of contracts reduces the return and is hard to do when market is offering 'easy' money but one has to train mind for looking for more of a positive steady return rather than...
Forum: Options December 17th, 2013, 09:09 PM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,951,216
Posted By seemasp
I also researched a lot about spreads and...

I also researched a lot about spreads and ultimately came back to Naked options. Main reason was for any spread you almost end up holding till expiry to collect most of the sold premium while for...
Forum: Options December 13th, 2013, 12:41 PM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,951,216
Posted By seemasp
NG Technicals

I called for continuation of bullish move last week and I think the spike phase is ending/about to end now which usually is followed by channel up or down...My take is that it still can go for 50-60...
Forum: Options December 6th, 2013, 12:01 PM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,951,216
Posted By seemasp
NG Rally

While I do not have any crystal ball, I am using price action along with seasonals. While seasonals turn negative in a week or two, the recent price action is too bullish for any significant downturn...
Forum: Options November 26th, 2013, 09:38 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,951,216
Posted By seemasp
SPAN Margin Question

Hi,
I would appreciate if someone can tell me current SPAN margins for the following:
NG March 14 525 call
ES Feb 1500 Put
Gold Feb 1000 Put

Thanks in advance.
Forum: Options June 12th, 2013, 12:00 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,951,216
Posted By seemasp
The numbers just don't make sense here.... 345...

The numbers just don't make sense here.... 345 billion = 345,000 million which divided by 19 million (or 87 million for world demand) comes to 18157.89 years (or 3965.52 years in case of 87 million)....
Forum: Options May 22nd, 2013, 12:27 PM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,951,216
Posted By seemasp
Coffee 3 calls

Hi,
Many of us reading this thread might be short Sep 3 calls and doing well thanks to attention drawn by Ron.

However the ever lasting bid is back at 8 ticks while Sep 2 calls are selling at 45...
Forum: Options May 21st, 2013, 11:26 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,951,216
Posted By seemasp
Seasonal Chart

Hi,
How is the seasonal for Natural Gas for next three months? Also are there any free resources for seasonal charts? I would appreciate if anyone can post links for them.
Forum: Options April 29th, 2013, 09:31 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,951,216
Posted By seemasp
When do you close the trade? At expiry of options...

When do you close the trade? At expiry of options or buy them back early at 20-25% of sold price? Also do you have more than 1 trade active at a time in same direction? Just trying to understand bit...
Forum: Options April 27th, 2013, 01:14 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,951,216
Posted By seemasp
I had considered credit spreads but as you...

I had considered credit spreads but as you mentioned the return is even lower and so not worth to me...

Regarding my strategy, it is kind of similar but on little longer term, like wait for ES to...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 31

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