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Search: Posts Made By: handspin
Forum: Trading Journals May 9th, 2024, 11:05 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 2,266
Posted By handspin
well, strength on what should be weakness ...

well, strength on what should be weakness

including carries so slow accumulation

also keep in mind buyback season

//

watchin energy don't wanna ev yet
Forum: Trading Journals May 8th, 2024, 02:09 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 2,266
Posted By handspin
looks like the dollar is stable, pushing mild...

looks like the dollar is stable, pushing mild strength

stable is the key word along with rates and yen

last thing to check is the mag 7 comp

//

earnings checked out, even with a dip...
Forum: Trading Journals May 7th, 2024, 02:41 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 2,266
Posted By handspin
say the dollar either weakened or got stronger ...

say the dollar either weakened or got stronger

the net change for indexes vs dollar would be a wash

however waiting for dips could take advantage of such adjustments
Forum: Trading Journals May 6th, 2024, 10:42 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 2,266
Posted By handspin
late 2023 saw support breaks of top half carries...

late 2023 saw support breaks of top half carries vs jpy

observable long term on gbp, euro, nzd but only mid term aud, cad, chf, mxn

so the dollar basket is 50/50 balanced by crosses until the...
Forum: Trading Journals May 3rd, 2024, 10:14 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 2,266
Posted By handspin
knee jerk post event and wait to see if there is...

knee jerk post event and wait to see if there is continuation

standard unknown factors beforehand to be digest afterward

carry, fx are less enthused and rest is bouncy / flat save yields
Forum: Trading Journals May 2nd, 2024, 03:06 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 2,266
Posted By handspin
waiting on nfp, but the general action is still...

waiting on nfp, but the general action is still constrained from fomc

especially with a lower gamma with the roundtrip yday into today

dollar weakness possibly vs trend and really positioned to...
Forum: Trading Journals May 1st, 2024, 12:06 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 2,266
Posted By handspin
usd/chf seems to be a decent dollar strength...

usd/chf seems to be a decent dollar strength proxy maybe usd/mxn

having a harder time with usd/cad even with energy pressure

dollar basket is also buffered by eur and jpy crosses

//
...
Forum: Trading Journals April 30th, 2024, 12:59 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 2,266
Posted By handspin
dollar strength makes the carry and vs yen or...

dollar strength makes the carry and vs yen or even cad

energy is slumping and things pointing lower

will watch vol as yields maintain higher
Forum: Trading Journals April 29th, 2024, 03:55 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 2,266
Posted By handspin
so the flat behavior is a coin-flip /...

so the flat behavior is a coin-flip / decision-making branch

and seeing that we pointed lower on several indexes

we choose to err on the side of caution

//

that said looking at ultra t...
Forum: Trading Journals April 26th, 2024, 03:41 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 2,266
Posted By handspin
the bump should have been higher honestly ...

the bump should have been higher honestly

mag 7 is boiling with the lid on but can't break out

staying on with the diamonds and dollar is still pushing

(still collecting alpha from alphabet...
Forum: Trading Journals April 25th, 2024, 10:20 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 2,266
Posted By handspin
looking at indexes, there was an issue where...

looking at indexes, there was an issue where mid-timeframe carried

vol also seemed to suggest this and yields were pressed as well

which suggests that '23 Q4 - '24 Q1 was less convincing

//...
Forum: Trading Journals April 24th, 2024, 11:56 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 2,266
Posted By handspin
sell in may and go away is likely in effect.....

sell in may and go away is likely in effect.. trendless

for the short term maybe small swings

not seeing follow through

//

earnings, fomc, etc.
Forum: Trading Journals April 23rd, 2024, 12:55 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 2,266
Posted By handspin
the narrative post-covid remains, the start of...

the narrative post-covid remains, the start of the decade showed up with a stick save at support

the after effect of preventative easing haunts us but also provides adequate tailwinds

although...
Forum: Trading Journals April 22nd, 2024, 02:41 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 2,266
Posted By handspin
though yields may have a another leg up pending...

though yields may have a another leg up pending may fomc

indexes and vol are progressing after the extended rout

stalling the bottom through earnings or frontrun
Forum: Trading Journals April 19th, 2024, 11:26 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 2,266
Posted By handspin
still solid with the carry and flattened response...

still solid with the carry and flattened response from yields and vol

one interesting bit is that dow is leading for once vs mag7 / large cap tech

so an allocation there might balance out...
Forum: Trading Journals April 18th, 2024, 11:04 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 2,266
Posted By handspin
so yday we had the initiation from carry aud/jpy...

so yday we had the initiation from carry aud/jpy and vix

this spilled over into the nikkei which pulled in us indexes

we also verify through dark index and gamma this is the case

//

for...
Forum: Trading Journals April 17th, 2024, 01:31 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 2,266
Posted By handspin
vol and carry is early on the turn while energy...

vol and carry is early on the turn while energy drips

we see that indexes are bouncing after some initial hesitation

will be interesting what unfolds for the next few days - weeks through...
Forum: Trading Journals April 16th, 2024, 12:46 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 2,266
Posted By handspin
things settling for the dip, dow was dogged prior...

things settling for the dip, dow was dogged prior but now leading

vol gold crude bonds carries all waiting but poised

pending but turnaround tues in fx
Forum: Trading Journals April 15th, 2024, 02:36 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 2,266
Posted By handspin
bit of noise, carries still solid and energy...

bit of noise, carries still solid and energy positioning either way

yields are still dampened and vix running at highs

extra dipping action could provide opps

//

near the lows, would have...
Forum: Trading Journals April 14th, 2024, 07:46 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 2,266
Posted By handspin
almost as if.. we are united in a war against...

almost as if.. we are united in a war against inflation

other wars are less important

and inflationary in the wrong manner

//

then from ww2 > viet / kor > cold > proxy > cooperative...
Forum: Trading Journals April 12th, 2024, 10:52 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 2,266
Posted By handspin
usd/jpy as a carry is just pending energy...

usd/jpy as a carry is just pending

energy never had a chance to really develop either

also stalled from financial earnings kickoff

//

usd/jpy and other carries are signaling early recovery
Forum: Trading Journals April 11th, 2024, 10:46 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 2,266
Posted By handspin
nice drop in energy, indexes trying yields...

nice drop in energy, indexes trying

yields unknown to diverted to indexes

and vix is making an attempt but rejected

//

entry first in nq which led
Forum: Trading Journals April 10th, 2024, 02:04 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 2,266
Posted By handspin
the burst from the dollar is pushing usd/jpy as...

the burst from the dollar is pushing usd/jpy as well

an attempt to tame commodities but likely needs more

bonds still in the nono zone pulling down harder

//

charting case schiller...
Forum: Trading Journals April 9th, 2024, 12:39 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 2,266
Posted By handspin
rbob seems to be waning, helping lower inflation ...

rbob seems to be waning, helping lower inflation

gold and silver may but still needs to fade out

carries seem ok, longer yields dropping more

//

these nextgen disruptors are very real
Forum: Trading Journals April 5th, 2024, 03:21 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 2,266
Posted By handspin
vix also up hopefully passes along with crude ...

vix also up hopefully passes along with crude

indexes might float further if carries can hold the line

yields seem to just slowly fade but steady, dollar as well
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