Dark
Theme
Light
Theme
Register
Username or Email
Username or Email
Password
Password
Forgot
Signup
Forgot
Browse
Register
Downloads / Indicators
Articles
Upgrade to Elite
Unanswered Posts
My Posts
Return to Homepage
Today's Posts
Trading Reviews and Vendors
Futures Brokers Reviews
Traders Hideout (general)
Platforms and Indicators
Trading Journals
Elite Trading Journals
Psychology and Money Management
Off-Topic
The Elite Circle
Webinars
Trading Articles
Main Trading Articles Index
Article Categories
Help, Tutorials, How-To's
Traders and Trading Methods
Platforms, Tools and Indicators
Terms (Glossary)
Article Tools
List New Articles
List Recent Article Changes
Random Article
Most Popular Articles
Category Groupings
Wanted Articles
Most Linked to from Forum
Go to Page...
Quotes
by TradingView
>
Search Forums
>
Showing results 1 to 12 of 12
Filter subforums listed
Search:
Posts Made By:
Fat Tails
Forum:
Off-Topic
April 3rd, 2011, 10:22 AM
Replies:
56
stupid probability questions
Views:
13,448
Posted By
Fat Tails
I think that many events are random, and even...
I think that many events are random, and even with all the knowledge of the world it is not possible to predict them.
Of course, you can debate whether the random events are deterministic in the...
Forum:
Off-Topic
December 13th, 2010, 09:17 AM
Replies:
56
stupid probability questions
Views:
13,448
Posted By
Fat Tails
Futures are a zero sum game, so the aggregate...
Futures are a zero sum game, so the aggregate profit of noise, fundamentally oriented and feedback traders is zero before commissions. It is a sucker's game.
The game is designed that way...
Forum:
Off-Topic
December 12th, 2010, 04:41 PM
Replies:
56
stupid probability questions
Views:
13,448
Posted By
Fat Tails
I agree with this. In the absence of external...
I agree with this. In the absence of external causes, such as unexpected news, sideways action can be
- either the result of random movements (noise traders)
- or the result of positive...
Forum:
Off-Topic
December 12th, 2010, 02:47 PM
Replies:
56
stupid probability questions
Views:
13,448
Posted By
Fat Tails
Positive feedback reinforces a price move and...
Positive feedback reinforces a price move and creates additional momentum. Trend following creates additional momentum in the direction of the prevailing trend.
Negative feedback slows a price...
Forum:
Off-Topic
December 12th, 2010, 08:03 AM
Replies:
56
stupid probability questions
Views:
13,448
Posted By
Fat Tails
For the coin flip, there is absolutely no...
For the coin flip, there is absolutely no connection between the 57th and the 58th coin flip. The 58th coin flip is stochastically independent from all prior coin flips. This is the main point to...
Forum:
Off-Topic
December 7th, 2010, 10:36 AM
Replies:
56
stupid probability questions
Views:
13,448
Posted By
Fat Tails
Yes, if you build a chart with a random series,...
Yes, if you build a chart with a random series, there will be trends as well. These trends are just meaningless, but they exist.
The only way to detect whether a trend is random or not, is to...
Forum:
Off-Topic
December 6th, 2010, 06:28 AM
Replies:
56
stupid probability questions
Views:
13,448
Posted By
Fat Tails
If there is feedback involved, it cannot be...
If there is feedback involved, it cannot be random. You would make the distinction between two cases
(1) Usually noise traders enter trades in a random way. Each trader may have a reason, but the...
Forum:
Off-Topic
December 5th, 2010, 09:12 PM
Replies:
56
stupid probability questions
Views:
13,448
Posted By
Fat Tails
Thinking in Conditional Probabilities Just...
Thinking in Conditional Probabilities
Just prior to the first flip the probability for the chain
tails -> tails -> tails -> tails -> tails -> tails -> tails -> tails -> tails -> heads
is...
Forum:
Off-Topic
October 31st, 2010, 08:17 PM
Replies:
56
stupid probability questions
Views:
13,448
Posted By
Fat Tails
Glad you liked it, just copied it from Wikipedia....
Glad you liked it, just copied it from Wikipedia. But with your coding capabilities you should not pretend to be impressed by some basic math. :nerd:
Forum:
Off-Topic
October 31st, 2010, 05:47 PM
Replies:
56
stupid probability questions
Views:
13,448
Posted By
Fat Tails
Haven't read it yet, might do so. It looks like a...
Haven't read it yet, might do so. It looks like a controversial, but interesting book. Scientific discovery is not yet over, it just shifts to other places. Sometimes, I have the feeling that in...
Forum:
Off-Topic
October 31st, 2010, 05:04 PM
Replies:
56
stupid probability questions
Views:
13,448
Posted By
Fat Tails
The idea of Gauss distributions (bell curves) is...
The idea of Gauss distributions (bell curves) is just a model. It heavily relies on the efficient market hypothesis, which assumes that there are noise traders and arbs. Whenever a noisetrader makes...
Forum:
Off-Topic
October 31st, 2010, 06:48 AM
Replies:
56
stupid probability questions
Views:
13,448
Posted By
Fat Tails
If you flip your coin 100 times, one event would...
If you flip your coin 100 times, one event would be any result describing the 100 coin flips such as (heads, tails, tails, tails .... , heads, tails). Each single event has a probability of (1/2)^100...
Showing results 1 to 12 of 12
What unexpected challenges have you encountered while trading on a "Funded Trader" platform?
Limited trading instruments
High platform usage fees
Lack of support or mentorship
Unrealistic rules and requirements
No significant challenges
Something else (discuss in thread)
View Results
Discuss Poll
futures io is now NexusFi
Trading Webinars How-to's
Trading Reviews & Products
Join Markets Chat waitlist
NinjaTrader Brokerage (Broker)
Ninja Mobile Trader (Server Hosting)
Apex Trader Funding (Prop Trading)
Tradovate (Trading Platform)
NinjaTrader (Trading Platform)
SharkIndicators (Trading Software)
© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
