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Search: Posts Made By: Fat Tails
Forum: Currencies July 17th, 2012, 11:10 AM
Replies: 2,612
Views: 925,837
Posted By Fat Tails
If you want to trade breakouts, you want to make...

If you want to trade breakouts, you want to make sure that volatility rises, when you trade them. Volatility can be measured via the average ranges per time unit. Let us first have a look at the...
Forum: Currencies July 17th, 2012, 10:36 AM
Replies: 2,612
Views: 925,837
Posted By Fat Tails
Mark Fisher has kept his little secrets. I do not...

Mark Fisher has kept his little secrets. I do not know either

- why he uses a different opening period for each instrument
- how he determines the number of ticks used for his A and C values

I...
Forum: Currencies July 16th, 2012, 12:19 PM
Replies: 2,612
Views: 925,837
Posted By Fat Tails
I do not know what is an intraday swing size. But...

I do not know what is an intraday swing size. But let as assume that you are referring to the largest intraday swing. This would be the swing from the high to the low (case daily high occurred first)...
Forum: Currencies July 6th, 2012, 10:53 PM
Replies: 2,612
Views: 925,837
Posted By Fat Tails
The big picture

Assume that the Euro just retraces its bullish moves of the last 10 years by 61.8% ...

https://nexusfi.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=80487
Forum: Currencies July 6th, 2012, 06:59 PM
Replies: 2,612
Views: 925,837
Posted By Fat Tails
Not very convincing ..... the European crisis is...

Not very convincing ..... the European crisis is not over. Any steps of debt mutualization do not bring Europe forward, it is just a way to reward those who have not observed budget discipline.

...
Forum: Currencies June 21st, 2012, 10:45 AM
Replies: 2,612
Views: 925,837
Posted By Fat Tails
Hurry up, do it before the last fish has been...

Hurry up, do it before the last fish has been killed.

Oops, this thread is about the Euro, can you still trade it? :becky:
Forum: Currencies June 20th, 2012, 06:44 PM
Replies: 2,612
Views: 925,837
Posted By Fat Tails
Lower Highs and Lower Lows? This is all a...

Lower Highs and Lower Lows? This is all a question of the lookback period. The Euro has just retraced 50% of its advance. :)

https://nexusfi.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=78371
Forum: Currencies June 15th, 2012, 09:00 AM
Replies: 2,612
Views: 925,837
Posted By Fat Tails
Short look at the 6E chart: Yesterday was a...

Short look at the 6E chart:

Yesterday was a consolidation day, as the Euro tested the territory gained on Wednesday. During the European session it stuck to value, during the US session it moved...
Forum: Currencies June 7th, 2012, 09:09 AM
Replies: 2,612
Views: 925,837
Posted By Fat Tails
If I look at your charts I guess that your father...

If I look at your charts I guess that your father must have been a plumber. As a little boy you probably played with the tubes, and now you continue that game in cyberspace... :becky:
Forum: Currencies May 7th, 2012, 06:09 PM
Replies: 2,612
Views: 925,837
Posted By Fat Tails
Just posting another chart. No S/R lines, just a...

Just posting another chart. No S/R lines, just a collection of MACDs.

Different approach, not compatible with the other one.


https://nexusfi.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=72750
Forum: Currencies May 7th, 2012, 08:49 AM
Replies: 2,612
Views: 925,837
Posted By Fat Tails
I am sleeping during the night. But with a dose...

I am sleeping during the night. But with a dose of hindsight knowledge this is what can be seen:

After the gap down there was a climax bar, which had been noticed by Cashish.

(1) The Climax bar...
Forum: Currencies May 7th, 2012, 01:54 AM
Replies: 2,612
Views: 925,837
Posted By Fat Tails
I think you will easily find somebody on the...

I think you will easily find somebody on the other side of your trade, if you wish to go long today.

See daily chart of Euro below. :becky:

...
Forum: Currencies April 25th, 2012, 09:11 PM
Replies: 2,612
Views: 925,837
Posted By Fat Tails
Open a chart via File -> New -> Chart. Select an...

Open a chart via File -> New -> Chart. Select an instrument then click the "New" button. Then select the same or another instrument and click the "New" button again. Now you have added a second data...
Forum: Currencies April 24th, 2012, 06:03 AM
Replies: 2,612
Views: 925,837
Posted By Fat Tails
Changed Normalization of MACD, Long Setup for $EURUSD

This is not the subject of the thread, but I need to correct what I have said above about the normalization of the MACD. The normalization of the MACD with an EMA of the true range was not really...
Forum: Currencies April 23rd, 2012, 11:16 AM
Replies: 2,612
Views: 925,837
Posted By Fat Tails
I have been coding this for rcabri, he has not...

I have been coding this for rcabri, he has not yet posted his method, but I have published the chart with his permission.

You can easily produce that chart as follows:

Open a 15-min chart, then...
Forum: Currencies April 23rd, 2012, 07:35 AM
Replies: 2,612
Views: 925,837
Posted By Fat Tails
I came across a nice method of visualizing trends...

I came across a nice method of visualizing trends and pullbacks, which is used by @rcabri (https://nexusfi.com/member.php?u=10893). He uses a set of four plain MACDs in different timeframes. The...
Forum: Currencies February 14th, 2012, 05:51 PM
Replies: 2,612
Views: 925,837
Posted By Fat Tails
The noise bands can be applied to the ETH or RTH...

The noise bands can be applied to the ETH or RTH session. The chart shows RTH noise bands.

The RTH noise bands depend on the template used. The template per contract specifications for 6E would...
Forum: Currencies February 14th, 2012, 03:38 PM
Replies: 2,612
Views: 925,837
Posted By Fat Tails
The answer is random, coincidence and illusion!...

The answer is random, coincidence and illusion! :sarcastic:

But there is a simpler idea. Have a look at the noise bands and the volatility bands. The average daily range of EURUSD was 135 pips...
Forum: Currencies February 10th, 2012, 10:18 AM
Replies: 2,612
Views: 925,837
Posted By Fat Tails
Micro Analysis

Just a screenshot showing S/R, looking at pivots, fibonacci confluence, VWAP bands. This analysis is not valid on its own, but needs to be seen in the context of the larger time frame chart.

...
Forum: Currencies February 10th, 2012, 08:51 AM
Replies: 2,612
Views: 925,837
Posted By Fat Tails
Take into Account Flight to Safety

You need to have a look at the news coming from Greece though, as the market is very nervous today.

All commodities are read, index futures and currencies are read, the only thing that goes are...
Forum: Currencies February 10th, 2012, 08:38 AM
Replies: 2,612
Views: 925,837
Posted By Fat Tails
There was a bearish Butterfly preceding today's...

There was a bearish Butterfly preceding today's price action. It is not exactly the ideal geometry that you would expect, but anyhow I do not believe in any sacred ratios. The Butterfly pattern as...
Forum: Currencies February 9th, 2012, 09:39 AM
Replies: 2,612
Views: 925,837
Posted By Fat Tails
I have also often observed that price action...

I have also often observed that price action stops at the Fibonacci line, then retraces and then temporarily breaks it to collect the stops before it retraces. We currenctly can observe a potential...
Forum: Currencies February 9th, 2012, 09:20 AM
Replies: 2,612
Views: 925,837
Posted By Fat Tails
$EURUSD has retraced 38.2% of the leg down. Did...

$EURUSD has retraced 38.2% of the leg down. Did not test the lows after the trendline break, which indicates a lack of sellers.

If it breaks above 1.3300, it should continue at least until the...
Forum: Currencies January 17th, 2012, 07:16 AM
Replies: 2,612
Views: 925,837
Posted By Fat Tails
NewRelease

Liquidity was not enough to absorb the buy orders of the eager news traders. 6E produced a spike, EURUSD did not.

https://nexusfi.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59801
Forum: Currencies January 12th, 2012, 12:42 PM
Replies: 2,612
Views: 925,837
Posted By Fat Tails
FOREX data is a bit special with Interactive...

FOREX data is a bit special with Interactive Brokers. If you open a TWS chart, there is no last traded price. The chart either shows the midpoint or both bid and ask data.

As Interactive Brokers...
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