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Search: Posts Made By: lrfsdad
Forum: Options September 13th, 2013, 02:23 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 8,714
Posted By lrfsdad
Do you want to have a directional bias when...

Do you want to have a directional bias when employing this strategy?
Forum: Options September 8th, 2013, 01:13 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 8,714
Posted By lrfsdad
Greg Loehr I just read your article in this...

Greg Loehr

I just read your article in this month's issue of futures magazine. Can you provide some candidates for this strategy?

Thanks
Forum: Options August 3rd, 2013, 11:38 AM
Replies: 30
Views: 8,714
Posted By lrfsdad
so your saying an option with a delta of .2 has a...

so your saying an option with a delta of .2 has a 20% chance of expiring ITM? This is figured into the pricing weather it expires in a week or 6 months? Obviously as the delta increases, so does...
Forum: Options August 2nd, 2013, 10:49 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 8,714
Posted By lrfsdad
I'm not familiar with that strategy, please...

I'm not familiar with that strategy, please advise. Thanks!
Forum: Options July 23rd, 2013, 10:36 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 8,714
Posted By lrfsdad
I've found that the event causing the high...

I've found that the event causing the high volatility (like earnings) throws probabilities out the window. Since I started this thread, my business has been occupying more of my time. IB doesn't...
Forum: Options April 25th, 2013, 03:53 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 8,714
Posted By lrfsdad
ouch!! Why I don't like short naked stock options.

Akam beat expectations by .04 and this means a 20% rise in the stock today: I have been using a tgt about 10% away from current prices (short strike) for the purpose of this exercise.
...
Forum: Options April 22nd, 2013, 10:24 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 8,714
Posted By lrfsdad
https://nexusfi.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=10...

https://nexusfi.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=109782

1158.80 profit on both spreads 3341.2 Risk. 34.6% ROI
Forum: Options April 19th, 2013, 04:12 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 8,714
Posted By lrfsdad
payday!!!

the GES and GMCR positions expired worthless about 10 minutes ago. Will show p&l after settlement on my statement over the weekend:

So far 3 postions, 3 winners. no emotion, just probabilities....
Forum: Options April 3rd, 2013, 07:41 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 8,714
Posted By lrfsdad
Long 65 call Short 62.5 call stock at time...

Long 65 call
Short 62.5 call

stock at time of putting on position: 57.40

short 52.5 put
long 50.00 put

Here is a better shot of the positions with the contract description column widened: ...
Forum: Options April 2nd, 2013, 04:03 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 8,714
Posted By lrfsdad
Ges update and new trade:

even with the short put at the money, the spread is slightly ahead (about $180) I've decided to hold as opposed to cover as there is alot of premium left on the short 25 put and with just over 2...
Forum: Options March 26th, 2013, 10:28 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 8,714
Posted By lrfsdad
One of the motivating factors for this thread was...

One of the motivating factors for this thread was this video OPTION TRADER makes $105MM PROFIT in the NDX, SPX & RUT - Her STORY Uncovered - YouTube (http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BquDGE9KxZQ)
I...
Forum: Options March 23rd, 2013, 08:19 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 8,714
Posted By lrfsdad
GES

using the same criteria, I have the same spread on in GES. April expiry though so a few weeks left. Put on when the stock was 27.92 on 3-12-13. It closed Friday just over 25.00. Implied vol vs...
Forum: Options March 23rd, 2013, 07:51 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 8,714
Posted By lrfsdad
volatility

I should mention that I came across this stock using a high implied volatility over historical stock scan at IB. I would post a screen shot, but implied vol isn't coming up probably because the mkt...
Forum: Options March 23rd, 2013, 07:41 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 8,714
Posted By lrfsdad
oops, I risked 1815 to make 685. ...

oops, I risked 1815 to make 685.

685/1815=37% ROI in 5 days.

so using the above mentioned probabilities of about 20%, if I do this trade 100 times, 80 times I would make 685, or 54800 total...
Forum: Options March 23rd, 2013, 03:15 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 8,714
Posted By lrfsdad
sim trade

I put this trade on in LULU on Monday. I chose short strikes about 10% out of the money on the weeklies. Then the next strike for the long protection option....
Forum: Options March 21st, 2013, 07:20 AM
Replies: 30
Views: 8,714
Posted By lrfsdad
I too like strangles, and had success with them...

I too like strangles, and had success with them in higher volatility environments (in the es). Strangles in stocks seem more dangerous with out the out of the money protection like you have in an...
Forum: Options March 20th, 2013, 10:43 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 8,714
Posted By lrfsdad
Option R:R vs. probabilities

When trading options, what is a good ratio of probability vs reward:risk? When buying naked options, the risk is capped with exponential returns possible, but the probability is low.

Credit...
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