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Search: Posts Made By: rosho01
Forum: Options May 19th, 2014, 04:08 PM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 2,002,163
Posted By rosho01
i am a quarter of the way through 'fooled by...

i am a quarter of the way through 'fooled by randomness' and this rings a bell (of alarm type). good comment, your posts are extremely refreshing on this thread.
Forum: Options April 14th, 2014, 07:14 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 2,002,163
Posted By rosho01
re NG i lost loads on the increase in margin...

re NG i lost loads on the increase in margin calls - i had money to cover the ramp in vol/premiums but didnt factor in margin increases by the exchange. so its important to be aware of the...
Forum: Options April 10th, 2014, 09:50 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 2,002,163
Posted By rosho01
depends how long you are holding for, you dont...

depends how long you are holding for, you dont mention anything about your strategy so its anyones guess. also opec meetings can move the markets by 10$+ so its not just geopolitical risk which can...
Forum: Options April 10th, 2014, 06:54 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 2,002,163
Posted By rosho01
hedge hogs ...

hedge hogs
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Hedge-Hogs-Traders-Streets-Disaster/dp/1400068398/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1397126461&sr=1-1&keywords=hedge+hogs

flash boys...
Forum: Options April 9th, 2014, 12:47 PM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 2,002,163
Posted By rosho01
LE/LH M14

Lean Hogs has been interesting day today - massively volatile, currently 828 bid @ 121.750 on June14 future. Can sell LH Jun14 146C for 0.225 on IB for a c13% ROI (Premium less comms / 3 x IM / DTE x...
Forum: Options February 15th, 2014, 01:07 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 2,002,163
Posted By rosho01
whats your strike rate / r:r (rhetorical question...

whats your strike rate / r:r (rhetorical question btw)?...........thus.......

can you afford slippage? can you lift offers/hit bids in illiquid markets or need to work both legs to have +ve...
Forum: Options February 13th, 2014, 10:26 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 2,002,163
Posted By rosho01
isnt this cos march is either when reserves run...

isnt this cos march is either when reserves run out, or dont, and april is the new injection month for the following winter, as per SMCJBs v insightful post a while back....

...
Forum: Options January 16th, 2014, 04:01 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 2,002,163
Posted By rosho01
live cattle

Hello,

Does anyone have any good live cattle fundamental analyst links they can post? Bit of a sharp rally in prices.


(btw ron I have access to that info)
Forum: Options January 13th, 2014, 01:01 PM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 2,002,163
Posted By rosho01
Great trade Edit: Btw did you chart up...

Great trade

Edit:
Btw did you chart up the mar/dec13, 12, 11 spread to see how they reacted in the past? I am remote so cannot access the charts, but you need to be very cautious with these...
Forum: Options January 12th, 2014, 08:58 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 2,002,163
Posted By rosho01
Hi kd, where are you extracting your option...

Hi kd, where are you extracting your option chains from....ox/api/et al?

Soz I know this has been mentioned before, thread is huge. Just trying to figure easiest, quickest, cheapest option chain...
Forum: Options January 12th, 2014, 06:07 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 2,002,163
Posted By rosho01
A lot of the equity monthly option strategies...

A lot of the equity monthly option strategies (40-60 DTE) I have seen use a fixed % of total return if left to expiry ie most were 10-15% of total poss profit and if this wasnt hit in the first few...
Forum: Options January 4th, 2014, 05:44 PM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 2,002,163
Posted By rosho01
Are the NG storage amounts topped up in...

Are the NG storage amounts topped up in accordance to expected short term big increases in demand eg with next weeks forecasted 'worst in 40 years cold front' reserves wld be increased? So an...
Forum: Options December 29th, 2013, 09:51 PM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 2,002,163
Posted By rosho01
hey nomad4x how do you know its of no value?...

hey nomad4x

how do you know its of no value? speaking up (asking questions per se) is not such a bad thing......in other words even the most off topic, valueless (in perhaps your opinion), inane...
Forum: Options December 27th, 2013, 01:25 PM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 2,002,163
Posted By rosho01
hey barrington, i use Commodity Research...

hey barrington,

i use Commodity Research Bureau - (CRB) - Commodity Perspective (CP) (http://www.crbtrader.com/) - they do major futures markets inc commods / indices / ccy futures for $350 pa for...
Forum: Options December 19th, 2013, 03:19 PM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 2,002,163
Posted By rosho01
touched it briefly today, lets see if it breaks &...

touched it briefly today, lets see if it breaks & holds above. hopefully not...though price at these levels appears to be reasonable value as per the EIA:

"The EIA also forecasts that gas prices...
Forum: Options December 14th, 2013, 12:29 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 2,002,163
Posted By rosho01
hi eudamonia, great..... hmm

hi eudamonia,


great.....


hmm
Forum: Options December 13th, 2013, 12:20 PM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 2,002,163
Posted By rosho01
Cheers for the TA. Out of interest why do...

Cheers for the TA.

Out of interest why do these moves have to happen before xmas / this week?

Using TA i see prices potentially nudging up to 4.9, its a trend & you know what they say about...
Forum: Options December 12th, 2013, 10:18 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 2,002,163
Posted By rosho01
hi kd, is it 'uncertainty/fear' or expectation...

hi kd,
is it 'uncertainty/fear' or expectation that prices will go higher?


(fwiw harvard16.....offers get lifted, bids get hit).
Forum: Options November 14th, 2013, 10:04 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 2,002,163
Posted By rosho01
Hi is the OX trade calc working now? Margins...

Hi

is the OX trade calc working now? Margins for 2 spreads are 2x 1 spread for the trades i have been trying eg LH, CL, ES etc.

ta.
Forum: Options August 27th, 2013, 08:21 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 2,002,163
Posted By rosho01
CL / War (infrequent events)

considering that wars are 'fairly' low frequency events, do people deviate from their trading plans when war looks inevitable (in this instance with re to Syria/CL)?

in other words.....do you bail...
Forum: Options August 23rd, 2013, 09:49 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 2,002,163
Posted By rosho01
the spread on this is 3.50 / 2.50 at the moment,...

the spread on this is 3.50 / 2.50 at the moment, though bids for 3.25 keep appearing & disappearing. i wasnt seeing things.
Forum: Options August 23rd, 2013, 09:06 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 2,002,163
Posted By rosho01
hi opts - yes i def agree hence the question. if...

hi opts - yes i def agree hence the question. if it closes below 100 then imo it has a way to fall further. but for that reason i am struggling to find puts of any value.

its imposs trying to put...
Forum: Options August 22nd, 2013, 11:40 PM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 2,002,163
Posted By rosho01
hi ron (though its kevins post), out of interest...

hi ron (though its kevins post), out of interest as CLZ3 90P has a delta which fits with your strategy have you been selling any of these? i am surprised by the delta being that low for a 90P.

re...
Forum: Options August 22nd, 2013, 11:23 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 2,002,163
Posted By rosho01
hmm sorry, i shld have been more specific: ...

hmm sorry, i shld have been more specific:

ES Z3 +1740 (long) -1730 (short) Bear Call Spread Bid: 2.95 Ask 2.65.

So thats only 6 ticks wide (0.05 denomination), perhaps it is time of day & i...
Forum: Options August 21st, 2013, 08:44 PM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 2,002,163
Posted By rosho01
high volume, but what about the spread...

high volume, but what about the spread (bid/offer)?

the spreads in ES on IB are stupidly wide, why is liquidity so bad? lots are >200 size on bid/offer from the MMs - yet spread is 30% wide of...
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