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Search: Posts Made By: Harvard16
Forum: Options April 29th, 2019, 10:31 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,983,399
Posted By Harvard16
Apart from whats been mentioned already, I've...

Apart from whats been mentioned already, I've gained value from the books 'Options on Futures'- Summa & Lubo and 'The new options advantage' - Caplan , I prefer the Summa book as the examples used...
Forum: Options November 21st, 2018, 08:09 PM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,983,399
Posted By Harvard16
Strategy ''Despite low storage levels, EIA...

Strategy

''Despite low storage levels, EIA expects strong growth in US natural gas production to put downward pressure on prices in 2019, EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to average...
Forum: Options November 20th, 2018, 06:30 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,983,399
Posted By Harvard16
I though the same thing, why were the decayed...

I though the same thing, why were the decayed options not cleaned out to make way for fresh sales.

I can say I have been guilty of this myself at times, usually when things have not gone well and...
Forum: Options November 19th, 2018, 09:39 PM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,983,399
Posted By Harvard16
Here is a link to the spreadsheet of positions in...

Here is a link to the spreadsheet of positions in NG, this was for a +/- 600k account, with entry exits, for the size of account the position size is insane at over 250 short calls, true they looked...
Forum: Options November 18th, 2018, 07:48 PM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,983,399
Posted By Harvard16
I would say it is not as attractive as it was,...

I would say it is not as attractive as it was, like many I started selling commodity options on the backside of 2000's commodity boom when the air was coming out of the market but there were still...
Forum: Options July 17th, 2015, 02:26 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,983,399
Posted By Harvard16
Well put KkD, made me chuckle. :sarcastic:

Well put KkD, made me chuckle. :sarcastic:
Forum: Options July 9th, 2015, 09:42 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,983,399
Posted By Harvard16
Ron, I'm interested to know if in your research...

Ron, I'm interested to know if in your research and drawdown calculations are you looking purely are adverse margin adjustments based on maintenance margin on your initial margin for the position as...
Forum: Options June 23rd, 2015, 03:49 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,983,399
Posted By Harvard16
With this drawdown argument are you factoring in...

With this drawdown argument are you factoring in that you sold on average 60% more 2 deltas than 4 deltas options over your record period 2013-2015?

With the example you provided on worst drawdown...
Forum: Options April 17th, 2014, 03:00 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,983,399
Posted By Harvard16
I'm dump founded, Pure Genius :sarcastic:

I'm dump founded, Pure Genius :sarcastic:
Forum: Options April 4th, 2014, 08:17 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,983,399
Posted By Harvard16
Yes Kevindog, I remember questioning your view on...

Yes Kevindog, I remember questioning your view on this exact subject a while back and after doing more calculations and observation, I agree with you now, if there is more meat on the bone somewhere...
Forum: Options February 10th, 2014, 04:38 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,983,399
Posted By Harvard16
MJ888, I always find this a good place to...

MJ888,

I always find this a good place to look at historic option prices, you won't get closing prices going back 3 weeks , only about 7 sessions, but the charts goes back further and is a good...
Forum: Options January 17th, 2014, 03:09 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,983,399
Posted By Harvard16
mu2pilot, I'm still sitting tight with all my...

mu2pilot, I'm still sitting tight with all my short options on both side, and a lot more comfortable than a few weeks back when the market was shooting above 4.5 and vol was going mental. The NG...
Forum: Options January 13th, 2014, 08:57 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,983,399
Posted By Harvard16
I was not using a margin multiple, but since most...

I was not using a margin multiple, but since most of the ROI's here are based on multiple. my calc would be excluding brokerage:

$10/ ($48.40x3) = 6.89%/15 days till expiry x 30 days = 13.77%.
...
Forum: Options January 13th, 2014, 02:58 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,983,399
Posted By Harvard16
Kevin, I take it you are only basing your...

Kevin, I take it you are only basing your analysis on the initial margin, how do you account for the reduction in margin that occurs as an option approaches expiry assuming it is still far OTM. As an...
Forum: Options January 10th, 2014, 11:04 PM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,983,399
Posted By Harvard16
KKD, I know this was a while back, but just...

KKD, I know this was a while back, but just wanted to say thanks for the heads up on the LC puts, I sold a bunch of Feb 127 Puts on the 19th after investigating your observation, bought them back...
Forum: Options December 20th, 2013, 01:32 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,983,399
Posted By Harvard16
Not sure, but Canada would have had their own...

Not sure, but Canada would have had their own cold or colder weather issues last week so perhaps they diverted gas otherwise earmarked for export for their own domestic use.

Now that this larger...
Forum: Options December 18th, 2013, 02:00 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,983,399
Posted By Harvard16
I think you need match the strategy to the...

I think you need match the strategy to the market, identifying markets and periods that may produce rapid and difficult to foresee price gains and corresponding volatility, NG and S come to mind,...
Forum: Options December 13th, 2013, 10:18 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,983,399
Posted By Harvard16
Thanks Eudamonia, I like your take on things, the...

Thanks Eudamonia, I like your take on things, the question I have at the moment is how the market is going to react to the expected 230+ draw in next weeks storage report and how much of that is...
Forum: Options December 12th, 2013, 09:49 PM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,983,399
Posted By Harvard16
I went back on MRCI seasonals this morning...

I went back on MRCI seasonals this morning looking at the extend of previous NG rallies for the Feb contract in the Nov to Dec period low to highs. Apologies I had to eye ball the levels, as the...
Forum: Options December 12th, 2013, 07:04 PM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,983,399
Posted By Harvard16
Pity this coverage is discontinuing from 13th,...

Pity this coverage is discontinuing from 13th, was a great source.

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/market-commentary/energy/2013/12/mid-session-nat-gas_561.html
Forum: Options December 12th, 2013, 10:08 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,983,399
Posted By Harvard16
Absolutely KD, markets up 5c and people are...

Absolutely KD, markets up 5c and people are hitting the offer on things like H4 6C at .054. double yesterdays price which equates to ridiculous delta for an option 37% out of the money, just crazy....
Forum: Options December 12th, 2013, 12:36 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,983,399
Posted By Harvard16
NG April vs today - what I learnt.

Hi All,

As some of you have mentioned today's NG market feels a lot like Aprils, which ended very painfully for me when I sold low priced safe looking calls when things were quiet, eventually...
Forum: Options November 28th, 2013, 04:40 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,983,399
Posted By Harvard16
BR, it looks like you have a continuous front...

BR, it looks like you have a continuous front month chart vs a Jan NG chart.

If you are selling options, it is obvious that you need to be watching the chart of the underlying month deliverable...
Forum: Options November 27th, 2013, 07:22 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,983,399
Posted By Harvard16
Ecko, CL is a staple for most selling options on...

Ecko, CL is a staple for most selling options on this thread. You can only define your risk by buying options or by entering a credit spread as a sell strategy, CL options can see rapid decay when...
Forum: Options November 26th, 2013, 08:21 AM
Replies: 7,370
Views: 1,983,399
Posted By Harvard16
Hi KD, are you sure you are right on your CC...

Hi KD, are you sure you are right on your CC trade here expiring 7 Feb I have the 3000c 50/56 bid ask, your figures from yesterday show price at 5, did you mean the ones exp 5th Dec?
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