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Search: Posts Made By: artemiso
Forum: Traders Hideout July 16th, 2015, 11:37 PM
Replies: 34
Views: 21,102
Posted By artemiso
This is not analogous to scenarios A, B or C. Do...

This is not analogous to scenarios A, B or C. Do you see why?

In Scenarios A, B or C, you are making an action after the realization (market data) at time T+1. I gave the correct analogy to this:...
Forum: Traders Hideout July 14th, 2015, 01:13 AM
Replies: 34
Views: 21,102
Posted By artemiso
Exactly, this is a conditional probability! ...

Exactly, this is a conditional probability!

Assume the current market price is $100M, and market is practically guaranteed to go up from $1 if it ever gets there, i.e. p ->0.

You can replace...
Forum: Traders Hideout July 14th, 2015, 01:03 AM
Replies: 34
Views: 21,102
Posted By artemiso
P.S.: Big N is the number of combinations in the...

P.S.: Big N is the number of combinations in the lottery.
Forum: Traders Hideout July 14th, 2015, 12:58 AM
Replies: 34
Views: 21,102
Posted By artemiso
By the way, this is another place where your...

By the way, this is another place where your methodology is incorrect. I gave the example of lotteries deliberately because this is a binomial experiment.

Buying n tickets upfront (all-in at...
Forum: Traders Hideout July 14th, 2015, 12:47 AM
Replies: 34
Views: 21,102
Posted By artemiso
I can just as easily find you a post with 50...

I can just as easily find you a post with 50 likes on "R:R multiples". Which is why there is good money to be picked off from these guys. ;)



It's not about changing your mind. You said it...
Forum: Traders Hideout July 13th, 2015, 03:49 AM
Replies: 34
Views: 21,102
Posted By artemiso
I meant there exists only one outedge from that...

I meant there exists only one outedge from that node in the probability tree...
Forum: Traders Hideout July 12th, 2015, 08:25 PM
Replies: 34
Views: 21,102
Posted By artemiso
Well, that's why I deleted my post in page 1. I...

Well, that's why I deleted my post in page 1. I don't mean to create any ill will between us. I figured you'd see my deleted post in your email subscription and correct the error yourself, or perhaps...
Forum: Traders Hideout July 12th, 2015, 08:14 PM
Replies: 34
Views: 21,102
Posted By artemiso
I'm not supporting your case. I'm saying 3...

I'm not supporting your case.

I'm saying 3 things:

1. You're incorrect to say that Baye's theorem doesn't apply. Bayes's theorem does apply and you're even using it in your (misapplied)...
Forum: Traders Hideout July 12th, 2015, 02:43 PM
Replies: 34
Views: 21,102
Posted By artemiso
If you sum the joint probabilities at time T+2,...

If you sum the joint probabilities at time T+2, you have (1-p)^2 + p(1-p) + p(1-p) + p^2 = 1.



I hope you are aware that your method assumes that Bayes's theorem applies as well. The edges of a...
Forum: Traders Hideout July 12th, 2015, 03:14 AM
Replies: 34
Views: 21,102
Posted By artemiso
For your benefit, what doesn't add up is that the...

For your benefit, what doesn't add up is that the analysis conflates joint and conditional probabilities. The 3 scenarios have exactly the same expected payoff.
...
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