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Search: Posts Made By: Hotch

Forum: Psychology and Money Management

March 23rd, 2012, 10:56 AM

Replies: 139

Webinar: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) on Risk, Sizing, Scaling and Trade Management

Views: 47,068

Posted By Hotch

You're claiming that individually, all your...

You're claiming that individually, all your trades had a 50% win rate, but over time you expect to have more than 50% of them win, do you not see how absurd that is?

2 outcomes != 50% chance

...

Forum: Psychology and Money Management

March 23rd, 2012, 09:38 AM

Replies: 139

Webinar: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) on Risk, Sizing, Scaling and Trade Management

Views: 47,068

Posted By Hotch

You can't predict the outcome of the die roll...

You can't predict the outcome of the die roll will be a 3-6, but you can say the probability of the roll being a 3-6 is 2/3. That's the point.

Trading is people making decisions. People make the...

Forum: Psychology and Money Management

March 23rd, 2012, 08:33 AM

Replies: 139

Webinar: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) on Risk, Sizing, Scaling and Trade Management

Views: 47,068

Posted By Hotch

Not noticed this myself, any papers on it? ...

Not noticed this myself, any papers on it?

It's obvious that the market isn't fixed odds like a roulette wheel, but it doesn't mean the analogies aren't useful for explaining things, nor does it...

Forum: Psychology and Money Management

March 23rd, 2012, 06:57 AM

Replies: 139

Webinar: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) on Risk, Sizing, Scaling and Trade Management

Views: 47,068

Posted By Hotch

Malvolio, take the example of a fair, six sided...

Malvolio, take the example of a fair, six sided die. On the next roll, we have:

1/6 chance of being a 1
1/6 chance of being a 2
1/6 chance of being a 3
1/6 chance of being a 4
1/6 chance of...

Forum: Psychology and Money Management

March 22nd, 2012, 10:11 PM

Replies: 139

Webinar: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) on Risk, Sizing, Scaling and Trade Management

Views: 47,068

Posted By Hotch

addchild 2 outa three ain't bad outcome...

addchild

2 outa three ain't bad

outcome of the next trade is unknown: correct
2 outcomes: correct
50/50: false

timefreedom

Forum: Psychology and Money Management

March 22nd, 2012, 08:34 PM

Replies: 139

Webinar: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) on Risk, Sizing, Scaling and Trade Management

Views: 47,068

Posted By Hotch

Mike, with all due respect this is a highly...

Mike, with all due respect this is a highly flawed argument, and is just plain wrong.

Following your logic, we can say:

There are 2 outcomes to playing the lottery:

Win
Lose

Doesn't mean...

Showing results 1 to 6 of 6

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