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Search: Posts Made By: trendisyourfriend

Forum: Psychology and Money Management

March 24th, 2012, 06:08 PM

Replies: 139

Webinar: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) on Risk, Sizing, Scaling and Trade Management

Views: 47,085

Posted By trendisyourfriend

No disrespect but maybe an analysis such as the...

No disrespect but maybe an analysis such as the one provided should have a prominent disclaimer. Have been inspired by the most recent commentary (http://www.yourtradingcoach.com/) from Lance Begg:
...

Forum: Psychology and Money Management

March 23rd, 2012, 02:42 PM

Replies: 139

Webinar: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) on Risk, Sizing, Scaling and Trade Management

Views: 47,085

Posted By trendisyourfriend

Just trying to understand. How is this helping...

Just trying to understand. How is this helping you? Just take the VWAP for example. Many traders will try to enter near the VWAP on a retracement. Does it mean looking at this repeating pattern may...

Forum: Psychology and Money Management

March 23rd, 2012, 01:40 PM

Replies: 139

Webinar: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) on Risk, Sizing, Scaling and Trade Management

Views: 47,085

Posted By trendisyourfriend

What does it mean? I always look to the left of...

What does it mean? I always look to the left of my chart (Prior market action ) to get a feeling for the bias and likely path of future orderflow.

Forum: Psychology and Money Management

March 23rd, 2012, 11:29 AM

Replies: 139

Webinar: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) on Risk, Sizing, Scaling and Trade Management

Views: 47,085

Posted By trendisyourfriend

your win rate = 65% The probability that...

your win rate = 65%

The probability that your next trade will fall within the 65% group is either 0 or 1. However, over a series of trades, you should get more 1 than 0. Maybe expressed this way...

Forum: Psychology and Money Management

March 22nd, 2012, 07:20 PM

Replies: 139

Webinar: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) on Risk, Sizing, Scaling and Trade Management

Views: 47,085

Posted By trendisyourfriend

I agree you can't predict at 100% the outcomes of...

I agree you can't predict at 100% the outcomes of a trade. But seeing each trade as a 50/50 proposition is not exact either. Don't read me wrong, i know what you mean but you are not using the right...

Forum: Psychology and Money Management

March 22nd, 2012, 07:04 PM

Replies: 139

Webinar: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) on Risk, Sizing, Scaling and Trade Management

Views: 47,085

Posted By trendisyourfriend

I still think the 50/50 right/wrong ratio is not...

I still think the 50/50 right/wrong ratio is not appropriate. Maybe it's a question of semantic but if your edge is greater than 50% then the very next trade has an implied chance to be right equal...

Forum: Psychology and Money Management

March 22nd, 2012, 05:31 PM

Replies: 139

Webinar: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) on Risk, Sizing, Scaling and Trade Management

Views: 47,085

Posted By trendisyourfriend

- Don't look to be right. Trade the better...

- Don't look to be right. Trade the better probability.
- The very next trade, despite the most perfect conditions, has a 50/50 chance of being right vs being wrong.

50/50 + 50/50 + 50/50 + ...=...

Showing results 1 to 7 of 7

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