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Search: Posts Made By: Hiraphor
Forum: Commodities March 14th, 2022, 07:52 AM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,889
Posted By Hiraphor
I agree - the wheat july-sep spread blew out to...

I agree - the wheat july-sep spread blew out to -180 at one point when usually it is never below 0. Making a trade now has to be small size, or you risk your entire account getting liquidated....
Forum: Commodities March 1st, 2022, 12:29 PM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,889
Posted By Hiraphor
https://i.gyazo.com/94e902b43c31941d12f95f8547d63e...

https://i.gyazo.com/94e902b43c31941d12f95f8547d63e9d.png

Here is the graph I think you're looking for. Last price forward filled from the 28th Feb for 2022 (the straight line).
Forum: Commodities March 1st, 2022, 12:03 PM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,889
Posted By Hiraphor
You have the CL trade the wrong way round!? ie...

You have the CL trade the wrong way round!? ie you expect the dislocation to become even worse? why?
Forum: Commodities March 1st, 2022, 12:02 PM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,889
Posted By Hiraphor
Wondering if @myyrdin has a take on it, being a...

Wondering if @myyrdin has a take on it, being a bit of a grains spread wizard
Forum: Commodities March 1st, 2022, 11:53 AM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,889
Posted By Hiraphor
Question is could it be potentially very...

Question is could it be potentially very profitable to trade against those liquidation type movements.. from my first post the spread has already moved from -26 to -21.. taking a small long position
Forum: Commodities March 1st, 2022, 11:35 AM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,889
Posted By Hiraphor
Yeah the market is definitely wild at the moment,...

Yeah the market is definitely wild at the moment, but the reason why I really like this spread is because it's backed strongly by fundamentals - if December is at a premium, then wheat producers who...
Forum: Commodities March 1st, 2022, 11:10 AM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,889
Posted By Hiraphor
If Dec22 was sanctioned but Mar23 wasn't then...

If Dec22 was sanctioned but Mar23 wasn't then sure that would explain the discount, but I would find that hard to believe. Harvests happen in July so with no new supply coming between Dec and March...
Forum: Commodities March 1st, 2022, 11:00 AM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,889
Posted By Hiraphor
Thanks for the diagram. The thing is, the...

Thanks for the diagram. The thing is, the Russian/Ukranian crop harvest is around July time. By December it shouldn't matter - the harvests are all done, so it should just be storage by that point....
Forum: Commodities March 1st, 2022, 10:50 AM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,889
Posted By Hiraphor
Interesting to observe that the wheat Dec'22...

Interesting to observe that the wheat Dec'22 March'23 spread has inverted. Currently it's trading at -26, with dec at a significant premium to march implying a negative cost of carry. Not sure why -...
Forum: Commodities February 1st, 2022, 07:25 AM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,889
Posted By Hiraphor
Update: sold on a fairly meagre profit, on second...

Update: sold on a fairly meagre profit, on second thoughts wasn't a fan of storage numbers.. :P I'm not really a fan of seasonal trading at the moment, it seems to be having weak performance and the...
Forum: Commodities January 21st, 2022, 10:53 AM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,889
Posted By Hiraphor
Storage doesn't seem that expensive and...

Storage doesn't seem that expensive and fundamentals seem pretty normal so my theory is just recent volatility caused it to be disjointed. Scaling in a short position as spread should collapse when...
Forum: Commodities January 21st, 2022, 09:43 AM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,889
Posted By Hiraphor
Cocoa March-May '22 spread looking wild. Does...

Cocoa March-May '22 spread looking wild. Does anyone have any idea why March is trading at a ~50 discount to May?
Forum: Commodities November 28th, 2021, 02:20 PM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,889
Posted By Hiraphor
Absolutely, trading the grain harvest through a...

Absolutely, trading the grain harvest through a fly is materially the same as trading it through a spread. People must realise that there is often a reason for the wild price swings in calendar...
Forum: Commodities September 23rd, 2021, 08:17 AM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,889
Posted By Hiraphor
Have a look at ZM December 21 - Jan 22. Seems to...

Have a look at ZM December 21 - Jan 22. Seems to be little downside risk on that one in my opinion.
Forum: Commodities September 23rd, 2021, 08:04 AM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,889
Posted By Hiraphor
bump on grains too! anything new?

bump on grains too! anything new?
Forum: Commodities August 11th, 2021, 09:53 AM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,889
Posted By Hiraphor
Agree with this - I didn't comment before because...

Agree with this - I didn't comment before because I haven't run purely seasonal models before, but fundamentally wheat looks like it could be in shorter supply than corn to me.

EDIT: perhaps not...
Forum: Commodities June 29th, 2021, 12:56 PM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,889
Posted By Hiraphor
Hahaha was just thinking if it's true I might...

Hahaha was just thinking if it's true I might build a systematic strategy out of it, so probably posting on a public forum isn't a good idea.. however my other point is fair game - fundamentally...
Forum: Commodities June 9th, 2021, 08:46 AM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,889
Posted By Hiraphor
Agreed - I'm trading this through the March-July...

Agreed - I'm trading this through the March-July '23 spread rather than July-July, but same trade idea, that July 23 is mispriced.
Forum: Commodities May 25th, 2021, 09:26 AM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,889
Posted By Hiraphor
Perhaps, but we're still too early to tell! There...

Perhaps, but we're still too early to tell! There have been good rains in Australia's wheat production belt, but we're only in the planting stage. Critical crop development will come through the...
Forum: Commodities May 23rd, 2021, 10:41 AM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,889
Posted By Hiraphor
I did take a look at the graph you're...

I did take a look at the graph you're referencing, and fair enough if you think supply of wheat will increase but isn't that a more contrarian view? The May WASDE projects that supplies of wheat...
Forum: Commodities May 22nd, 2021, 04:00 PM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,889
Posted By Hiraphor
Just a note to add: the disjoint between the July...

Just a note to add: the disjoint between the July wheat contracts for 22 and 23, ie trading old crop vs new crop is priced at those levels because of the tight supply in grains at the moment. It's...
Showing results 1 to 21 of 21

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