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Search: Posts Made By: RM99
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 9th, 2011, 11:22 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 64,728
Posted By RM99
Unfortunately, like I said, it's not really...

Unfortunately, like I said, it's not really feasible for instruments like CL because of the discrete nature. Unless you're trading a lot of contracts, a 10% increase in position size isn't feasible....
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 9th, 2011, 06:37 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 64,728
Posted By RM99
It would be interesting to see the results of a...

It would be interesting to see the results of a random distribution of 55% outcome probability with a fractional position increase of 50%,

Then compare that to the same distbrution with a...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 9th, 2011, 05:52 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 64,728
Posted By RM99
Well, the posts above tend to prove otherwise. ...

Well, the posts above tend to prove otherwise. Unless you're trying to argue that trades aren't mutually exclusive, which is debateable, but difficult to prove.

I would argue that for an average...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 9th, 2011, 04:18 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 64,728
Posted By RM99
You're still not getting it. Call it semantics,...

You're still not getting it. Call it semantics, chicken or the egg, whatever...but you cannot observe an outcome rate different than 50% and not observe an uneven distribution of both wins/losses...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 3rd, 2011, 07:32 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 64,728
Posted By RM99
So now we're getting somewhere...if you develop a...

So now we're getting somewhere...if you develop a "random" strategy, that improves upon the simple progressive strategy, then fill me in:becky: I'm all ears.

But "random" isn't very comforting to...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 3rd, 2011, 07:08 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 64,728
Posted By RM99
I give up. You guys are right. All...

I give up.

You guys are right.

All I'll close with is saying that it's a similar concept as performance enhancing drugs in baseball.

There are idiots out there that say "taking steroids...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 3rd, 2011, 03:08 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 64,728
Posted By RM99
Even if the events are mutually exclusive it...

Even if the events are mutually exclusive it follows.

here's an example.

Let's say you had a typical 6 sided die....and if you rolled a 1,2,3 or 4, that's considered a win. If you rolled a 5...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 3rd, 2011, 01:19 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 64,728
Posted By RM99
Again, no one is disputing that. What I'm simply...

Again, no one is disputing that. What I'm simply saying is that IF you develop a strategy based on experience, backtesting, whatever, and it enjoys a greater than 50% win rate in the past, and you...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 3rd, 2011, 12:14 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 64,728
Posted By RM99
No, the probability of any individual outcome is...

No, the probability of any individual outcome is still 50%. So you cannot predict anything going forward. However, you know that the likelihood of an uneven distribution (for a finite sample set)...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 3rd, 2011, 12:04 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 64,728
Posted By RM99
No. Again, you're looking at the wrong...

No. Again, you're looking at the wrong resolution. I'm not making ANY predictions about singular events. I'm talking about STRINGS.

For strategies that have shown/observed a greater than 50%...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 2nd, 2011, 05:56 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 64,728
Posted By RM99
You're still not grasping my point. I'm not...

You're still not grasping my point. I'm not interested in single events....I'm interested in the inherent strings present in samples that are not evenly matched.

It is MATHEMATICALLY impossible...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 2nd, 2011, 05:37 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 64,728
Posted By RM99
The whole concept behind technical trading is...

The whole concept behind technical trading is that you're attempting to quantify a dynamic system. When you use indicators, what you're essentially trying to do is put a metric on news and secondary...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 2nd, 2011, 01:09 AM
Replies: 204
Views: 64,728
Posted By RM99
Again, no one is disputing the probability of a...

Again, no one is disputing the probability of a given singular event, we're discussing STRINGs of events. The probability of strings is a different consideration.

You can calculate the...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management March 19th, 2011, 06:33 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 64,728
Posted By RM99
Agreed and that's how some of the negative...

Agreed and that's how some of the negative progressives work. You simply keep increasing your wager to cover all previous losses until you end up winning, hoping that the house doesn't go on an...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management March 19th, 2011, 06:31 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 64,728
Posted By RM99
Agreed. I see your point now. With BJ strings,...

Agreed. I see your point now. With BJ strings, the results aren't exlcusive of one another.....one win or strings of wins indicate an increased probability of future losses.
Forum: Psychology and Money Management March 19th, 2011, 03:33 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 64,728
Posted By RM99
Ummmm, no. This doesn't address the string...

Ummmm, no. This doesn't address the string nature. It's true, that when any single event is considered by itself, the probability is the same. But when strings of events are considered and...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management March 19th, 2011, 02:09 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 64,728
Posted By RM99
So the casinos are basically a license to print...

So the casinos are basically a license to print money. They have several strategies for reducing already less than 50/50 odds. (there's NO game in a casino with an equal or higher than 50/50...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management March 19th, 2011, 02:00 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 64,728
Posted By RM99
How advanced mathematics and gaming theory can help you as a trader

Okay, so I thought I'd contribute a little bit of wisdom or at least food for thought.

What would you say, if I told you that you can make money on a mutually exclusive, binomial event such as...
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