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Posts Made By:
josh
Forum:
Commodities
January 9th, 2024, 03:37 PM
Replies:
2,696
Sticky:
The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Views:
606,562
Posted By
josh
Crude settles at this time. ...
Crude settles at this time.
https://www.cmegroup.com/confluence/display/EPICSANDBOX/NYMEX+Crude+Oil
https://nexusfi.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=337057
Forum:
Commodities
December 7th, 2023, 09:57 PM
Replies:
2,696
Sticky:
The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Views:
606,562
Posted By
josh
I can't imagine that they do, but I could be...
I can't imagine that they do, but I could be wrong. I suspect they have some account which funds purchase of physical oil at spot prices when they restock SPR. My comparison wasn't meant to imply...
Forum:
Commodities
December 4th, 2023, 01:06 PM
Replies:
2,696
Sticky:
The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Views:
606,562
Posted By
josh
Thanks SMCJB , can't believe I didn't read the...
Thanks SMCJB , can't believe I didn't read the axis label on that chart :-O I was thinking that a 700K barrel SPR was ... not very "strategic" or much of a "reserve" :)
Forum:
Commodities
December 4th, 2023, 08:56 AM
Replies:
2,696
Sticky:
The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Views:
606,562
Posted By
josh
CL having such a hard time catching a bid. Just...
CL having such a hard time catching a bid. Just now we get news:
https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1731667199981494322
Please tell me where my logic is wrong, because I'm pretty sure it...
Forum:
Commodities
March 9th, 2022, 07:30 PM
Replies:
2,696
Sticky:
The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Views:
606,562
Posted By
josh
Yeah I see it on twitter at 12:29, and it didn't...
Yeah I see it on twitter at 12:29, and it didn't really flush until about 5 minutes later. You know how headlines are... just a little catalyst, and then everyone's positioning does the rest.....
Forum:
Commodities
March 9th, 2022, 04:58 PM
Replies:
2,696
Sticky:
The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Views:
606,562
Posted By
josh
wanted to post this here for posterity .. $7 move...
wanted to post this here for posterity .. $7 move earlier today in 30 seconds, was down right at 20% on those low prints:
https://nexusfi.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=322708
Forum:
Commodities
December 28th, 2021, 10:38 AM
Replies:
2,696
Sticky:
The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Views:
606,562
Posted By
josh
Very insightful IMO. The price is a mechanism to...
Very insightful IMO. The price is a mechanism to advertise to potential buyers/sellers (borrowing terms from auction market theory), and the reflexive nature of markets and positioning guarantees...
Forum:
Commodities
August 23rd, 2021, 12:55 PM
Replies:
2,696
Sticky:
The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Views:
606,562
Posted By
josh
Sure, this was news late Friday. But you never...
Sure, this was news late Friday. But you never *know* what it is. You can only see the flows. However, news is only the spark... you can't get +5% without some fuel, and I think the Thursday and...
Forum:
Commodities
July 19th, 2020, 04:52 PM
Replies:
2,696
Sticky:
The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Views:
606,562
Posted By
josh
What a coincidence @SMCJB...
What a coincidence @SMCJB (https://nexusfi.com/member.php?u=50381) - I was wondering about this the other day.
If I may bring equity indices into this -- the IOM (Index and Option Market) seat...
Forum:
Commodities
June 2nd, 2020, 10:36 AM
Replies:
2,696
Sticky:
The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Views:
606,562
Posted By
josh
Will just jump in and say that it's that way for...
Will just jump in and say that it's that way for many markets. A "buy the open, sell the close" strategy in SPX is negative over the past 25+ years (has been positive this year)...
Forum:
Commodities
May 11th, 2020, 02:34 PM
Replies:
2,696
Sticky:
The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Views:
606,562
Posted By
josh
With 8 DTE, June is down 6% today. Any opinions...
With 8 DTE, June is down 6% today. Any opinions on the likelihood of a push lower in the coming week in anticipation of negative prices again as June expires? Or, has a lot of volume/OI moving to...
Forum:
Commodities
May 7th, 2020, 01:40 PM
Replies:
2,696
Sticky:
The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Views:
606,562
Posted By
josh
Especially these days where I see fewer logical...
Especially these days where I see fewer logical relationships holding, I can't make much sense of things. I'm right at the cusp of completely ignoring all information besides what I see on my screens...
Forum:
Commodities
May 7th, 2020, 11:48 AM
Replies:
2,696
Sticky:
The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Views:
606,562
Posted By
josh
Squeezed shorts who piled onto the negative crude...
Squeezed shorts who piled onto the negative crude prices hype?
Forum:
Commodities
April 21st, 2020, 03:26 PM
Replies:
2,696
Sticky:
The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Views:
606,562
Posted By
josh
I'd like to hear opinions on buying OTM calls...
I'd like to hear opinions on buying OTM calls (say, the 50 strike) for December expiry.
Is it madness to consider? Might the fact that the world is short crude cause a short covering rally once...
Forum:
Commodities
April 20th, 2020, 02:50 PM
Replies:
2,696
Sticky:
The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Views:
606,562
Posted By
josh
Down -$40 .. jeebus .. as we may never see this...
Down -$40 .. jeebus .. as we may never see this again, here it is, for posterity:
https://nexusfi.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=295924
Forum:
Commodities
April 16th, 2020, 11:46 PM
Replies:
2,696
Sticky:
The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Views:
606,562
Posted By
josh
All of this great info on crude makes me wish I...
All of this great info on crude makes me wish I knew more. Where can I learn about all things oil? Huge subject I know, but if someone wants to start on basics like how heavy vs light and sweet vs...
Forum:
Commodities
March 24th, 2020, 11:24 AM
Replies:
2,696
Sticky:
The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Views:
606,562
Posted By
josh
These are arb'd appropriately already, there's...
These are arb'd appropriately already, there's nothing really to do with trading one versus the other. IMO, QM is a bit of a ripoff. You get half the value of CL, but you get a pretty awful tick...
Forum:
Commodities
March 12th, 2020, 11:19 PM
Replies:
2,696
Sticky:
The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Views:
606,562
Posted By
josh
I'm with SMCJB on this one -- don't know if this...
I'm with SMCJB on this one -- don't know if this is a continuous back adjusted chart of CL or not, but this shows the 5-year difference between CL and USO. Also, while I wouldn't expect USO to go...
Forum:
Commodities
April 6th, 2015, 01:01 PM
Replies:
2,696
Sticky:
The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Views:
606,562
Posted By
josh
Do you plot exchange traded spreads or do you...
Do you plot exchange traded spreads or do you calculate them synthetically?
Forum:
Commodities
April 3rd, 2015, 11:32 AM
Replies:
2,696
Sticky:
The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Views:
606,562
Posted By
josh
Massive rally the other day on a +4.8M build, and...
Massive rally the other day on a +4.8M build, and refused to go down further after Iran deal. Seems ready to go test 52 again.
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