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Search: Posts Made By: Anagami
Forum: Psychology and Money Management February 20th, 2013, 08:25 AM
Replies: 109
Views: 37,663
Posted By Anagami
djkiwi , yes absolutely.

djkiwi , yes absolutely.
Forum: Psychology and Money Management October 18th, 2012, 11:02 AM
Replies: 109
Views: 37,663
Posted By Anagami
Yes, it seems some people miss the point of the...

Yes, it seems some people miss the point of the thread completely, despite the fact I summarized it more than once. To each his own, I suppose.
Forum: Psychology and Money Management October 18th, 2012, 10:14 AM
Replies: 109
Views: 37,663
Posted By Anagami
Let's see if you're still around in a couple of...

Let's see if you're still around in a couple of years. :sarcastic:
Forum: Psychology and Money Management September 16th, 2012, 05:50 PM
Replies: 109
Views: 37,663
Posted By Anagami
Try this one...

Try this one (http://web.archive.org/web/20100124164751/http://hquotes.com/tradehard/simulator.html).
Forum: Psychology and Money Management July 23rd, 2012, 12:50 PM
Replies: 109
Views: 37,663
Posted By Anagami
I assume you refer to my signature. I don't...

I assume you refer to my signature.

I don't use dice for trading (though there were times when I would have done better if I did :sarcastic:).

The dice part refers to my addiction to...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management July 23rd, 2012, 12:24 PM
Replies: 109
Views: 37,663
Posted By Anagami
Hi josh Thanks for such a thoughtful response. ...

Hi josh
Thanks for such a thoughtful response.

The main purpose of the thread was not to promote 1:1 (or any other RR for that matter) or a mechanical approach. It was to simply see how trials...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management July 20th, 2012, 12:08 PM
Replies: 109
Views: 37,663
Posted By Anagami
Just read a fantastic book related to topics...

Just read a fantastic book related to topics discussed here, Fortune's Formula. Recommended reading.
http://www.fortunesformula.com/FortunesFormulaCover.jpg
Btw, Poundstone has other highly...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management May 7th, 2012, 12:00 PM
Replies: 109
Views: 37,663
Posted By Anagami
The thread discussion got me more interested in...

The thread discussion got me more interested in analysis. Found a great resource for Free Stats Software (http://freestatistics.altervista.org/en/stat.php).

As the market gives me plenty of time...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management May 6th, 2012, 07:40 PM
Replies: 109
Views: 37,663
Posted By Anagami
If the win rate in the 60% 1:1 RR model drops by...

If the win rate in the 60% 1:1 RR model drops by 10%, then one's expectancy is much worse than zero.



Thinking about it, I have to agree with you. Yes, the results with the 80% scalping do rely...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management May 6th, 2012, 04:57 PM
Replies: 109
Views: 37,663
Posted By Anagami
Now that thanks to Harry I have access to a quick...

Now that thanks to Harry I have access to a quick and dirty simulator :sarcastic:, I want to go back to the original question. Which is the best:
1) 40% @ 1:2 RR ('trend model')
2) 60% @ 1:1 RR...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management May 6th, 2012, 04:23 PM
Replies: 109
Views: 37,663
Posted By Anagami
Thanks again, Harry! (Fat Tails) Much...

Thanks again, Harry! (Fat Tails) Much appreciated. You help me (and I'm sure many others) to correct certain distortions that have been ball and chain in our trading. :ballchain:

Just crunching...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management May 6th, 2012, 10:12 AM
Replies: 109
Views: 37,663
Posted By Anagami
Thank you for your detailed and elucidating post,...

Thank you for your detailed and elucidating post, Harry (Fat Tails).

Yes, 4 times the # of trades (10/10 system) for every 1 trade (20/20 system) is a reasonable modelling.

As a good...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management May 5th, 2012, 09:08 AM
Replies: 109
Views: 37,663
Posted By Anagami
Harry (Fat Tails), While taking a shower...

Harry (Fat Tails),

While taking a shower this morning (:lalala:), it occurred to me that your comparison of a 10 point and a 20 point system is useful in some aspects but quite misleading in...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management May 5th, 2012, 08:44 AM
Replies: 109
Views: 37,663
Posted By Anagami
Yes, vig = vigorish. It is the MIN Value at...

Yes, vig = vigorish.

It is the MIN Value at the end. If MIN is say 60, then we consider max drawdown 40 (100-60). This may obviously not be the maximum drawdown per se, but it is the maximum...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management May 5th, 2012, 08:38 AM
Replies: 109
Views: 37,663
Posted By Anagami
Yes, that's the common definition. That's why I...

Yes, that's the common definition. That's why I was crystal clear that I don't mean a specific timeframe, but a specific ratio. Those are 2 different issues.
Forum: Psychology and Money Management May 4th, 2012, 02:22 PM
Replies: 109
Views: 37,663
Posted By Anagami
Thinking about your example further, in both...

Thinking about your example further, in both cases slippage and commission are 1.8 points.

For the 10 point system, that's 18%.
For the 20 point system, that's 9%.
(+spread).

My question is:...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management May 4th, 2012, 02:02 PM
Replies: 109
Views: 37,663
Posted By Anagami
Thanks. These are very interesting results Fat...

Thanks. These are very interesting results Fat Tails, and they do give me a pause.

HOWEVER,

notice that I did not define scalping as trading on a very short timeframe where spread, slippage,...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management May 4th, 2012, 11:36 AM
Replies: 109
Views: 37,663
Posted By Anagami
Scalping

There is one last possibility to explore, and that's scalping. I define scalping as a trading style where one is playing for gains smaller than risks. For the purpose of this particular experiment,...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management May 4th, 2012, 09:20 AM
Replies: 109
Views: 37,663
Posted By Anagami
Yes, that's exactly right. Being an...

Yes, that's exactly right.

Being an empiricist and more of a visual thinker, I took the Monte Carlo path... and I am surprised that the traditional maxim of "let your winners run" and "your...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management May 3rd, 2012, 02:46 PM
Replies: 109
Views: 37,663
Posted By Anagami
Continuing after being so rudely interrupted by...

Continuing after being so rudely interrupted by an obnoxious vendor with his own agenda :sarcastic:, let us look at 1:1 RR. This is an extremely common ratio. Many traders and algos take profits...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management May 3rd, 2012, 01:25 PM
Replies: 109
Views: 37,663
Posted By Anagami
Perhaps you could at least show the courtesy of...

Perhaps you could at least show the courtesy of not hijacking a thread that is about something else.

I'm sure the fact that you're a vendor selling short-term trading products for $350 has...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management May 3rd, 2012, 12:06 PM
Replies: 109
Views: 37,663
Posted By Anagami
Not sure what your gripe is, but it doesn't seem...

Not sure what your gripe is, but it doesn't seem like you took your meds this morning. I would strongly suggest you don't trade in this mood. :sarcastic:

I provided nothing but solid simulation...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management May 3rd, 2012, 11:56 AM
Replies: 109
Views: 37,663
Posted By Anagami
The thread is not about higher timeframes or even...

The thread is not about higher timeframes or even about edges on lower timeframes.

The thread is about the percentage of improvement that is necessary for profitability. (though you are welcome to...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management May 3rd, 2012, 11:31 AM
Replies: 109
Views: 37,663
Posted By Anagami
If true, those are some excellent stats and...

If true, those are some excellent stats and you're making a boatload of money. Thanks for sharing!

Later today, we'll be looking at the 1:1 ratio.
Forum: Psychology and Money Management May 3rd, 2012, 10:52 AM
Replies: 109
Views: 37,663
Posted By Anagami
I suspect that for the majority of people out...

I suspect that for the majority of people out there, their entries (and probably trade management) is worse than random. They are below the random 33% category at 1:2 RR (meaning they are trapped...
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