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Search: Posts Made By: Sagal
Forum: Commodities August 19th, 2019, 02:22 PM
Replies: 87
Views: 21,151
Posted By Sagal
It took some time but here we are just below 95...

It took some time but here we are just below 95 for OJ
Forum: Commodities July 30th, 2019, 03:37 AM
Replies: 87
Views: 21,151
Posted By Sagal
Finally I went out for Cocoa with a flat loss...

Finally I went out for Cocoa with a flat loss with my option, I do not have the nerve to sustain the current situation and 2300 is a too high price to hold up to February. I would be more...
Forum: Commodities July 27th, 2019, 08:01 AM
Replies: 87
Views: 21,151
Posted By Sagal
Patience is something I am always working...

Patience is something I am always working on...being mostly on options for my swing trading helps a lot...but I went long yesterday with a naked put at 97.5 expiring in February 2020 (it was when the...
Forum: Commodities July 20th, 2019, 05:59 AM
Replies: 87
Views: 21,151
Posted By Sagal
I forgot to say that when I tried to sell a put...

I forgot to say that when I tried to sell a put option on coffee for March, it was as well because I bought back my spread option on brent earlier than planned (a more than 2% move fritghtened me at...
Forum: Commodities July 18th, 2019, 03:18 PM
Replies: 87
Views: 21,151
Posted By Sagal
After looking at the graph for sugar 11 I would...

After looking at the graph for sugar 11 I would be comfortable for selling a put at 10 finally...
https://nexusfi.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=269252
Forum: Commodities July 18th, 2019, 07:59 AM
Replies: 87
Views: 21,151
Posted By Sagal
Sugar 11 does not look good after this news!...

Sugar 11 does not look good after this news! -1.67% yesterday Edit -2% today at 11.55
"India announced that it would continue subsidizing its sugar exports, flooding an already oversupplied market...
Forum: Commodities July 1st, 2019, 02:30 PM
Replies: 87
Views: 21,151
Posted By Sagal
One step closer to 95 (from 112) for OJ after...

One step closer to 95 (from 112) for OJ after today (day view). The hourly view is even worse, as the high of the day was 107 and it closed at 100. It is just by curiosity for following up as I do...
Forum: Commodities June 5th, 2019, 03:43 PM
Replies: 87
Views: 21,151
Posted By Sagal
Good for you for the Coffee... Well if it goes ...

Good for you for the Coffee...
Well if it goes below 98 I will change my short-term views

Fundamental is mixed for Cotton and as for many things currently will depend on tariff issues. On top of...
Forum: Commodities June 5th, 2019, 02:59 PM
Replies: 87
Views: 21,151
Posted By Sagal
Few comments today on OJ and Coffee C. For OJ,...

Few comments today on OJ and Coffee C. For OJ, the short-term picture is darkened but I didn't check the forecast, hurricane etc.
For Coffee C I knew that it can only be very difficult...that's...
Forum: Commodities June 4th, 2019, 02:38 PM
Replies: 87
Views: 21,151
Posted By Sagal
Maybe the first sign of a slow down for Orange...

Maybe the first sign of a slow down for Orange Juice. High of the day: 112.6 Low of the day: 107. Volume 1119. These data summarized what I do not like with OJ...
The week is not over, currently...
Forum: Commodities May 31st, 2019, 06:55 PM
Replies: 87
Views: 21,151
Posted By Sagal
Right I mixed up the name. I think I got your...

Right I mixed up the name.
I think I got your point as summarized in this article
https://www.hedgefundtips.com/what-the-commitment-of-traders-says-about-orange-juice-futures/


The COT...
Forum: Commodities May 31st, 2019, 12:45 PM
Replies: 87
Views: 21,151
Posted By Sagal
Record net short position for commercials for OJ...

Record net short position for commercials for OJ was -33170 on 11/18/1997
Record net long position for commercials for OJ was + 9102 on 07/03/2001

Record net short position for non-commercials...
Forum: Commodities May 30th, 2019, 02:46 PM
Replies: 87
Views: 21,151
Posted By Sagal
Concerning OJ as we discussed I am not as sure as...

Concerning OJ as we discussed I am not as sure as you are.
Seasonality. End of June beginning of July on 5, 15 and 40 years is one of the three lowest points of the season and lower than May.
AT is...
Forum: Commodities May 30th, 2019, 11:43 AM
Replies: 87
Views: 21,151
Posted By Sagal
Edit on COT books:...

Edit on COT books: https://cotbase.com/resources/books
Forum: Commodities May 30th, 2019, 10:04 AM
Replies: 87
Views: 21,151
Posted By Sagal
I found this technical publication that is...

I found this technical publication that is reflecting my views on the question (the conclusions)
https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/6566076.pdf
One day I will read one or both of the two...
Forum: Commodities May 30th, 2019, 09:31 AM
Replies: 87
Views: 21,151
Posted By Sagal
For what it's worth the book has 2.5 stars at...

For what it's worth the book has 2.5 stars at amazon review and 54% of buyers that commented on (out of 22 in total) gave one star.
But it is correct that I didn't read his book.
Briese's one has...
Forum: Commodities May 26th, 2019, 04:39 AM
Replies: 87
Views: 21,151
Posted By Sagal
Ok I got it. Except for some very specific...

Ok I got it.
Except for some very specific commodities and in some specific occasions (precious metals, some softs?) I still have the impression that most of the COT users are more watching the...
Forum: Commodities May 25th, 2019, 05:13 AM
Replies: 87
Views: 21,151
Posted By Sagal
On Coffee C my positions are currently bullish...

On Coffee C my positions are currently bullish but in my opinion it will be short-lived and ready to go the other side (up to September-October then again from February 2020 on) particularly if the...
Forum: Commodities May 25th, 2019, 04:44 AM
Replies: 87
Views: 21,151
Posted By Sagal
I would like to extend on the COT and I would...

I would like to extend on the COT and I would appreciate Myrrdhin if you are more specific on which aspects exactly do you based on to say that the COT is bullish for OJ and Coffee C. I am certainly...
Forum: Commodities May 22nd, 2019, 06:42 AM
Replies: 87
Views: 21,151
Posted By Sagal
Good to know your positions Myrrdin. I am short...

Good to know your positions Myrrdin.
I am short in OJ (OJU19) after having lost my bet on a short put 110 (too much supply not enough demand) and looking forward to increase short position if prices...
Forum: Commodities April 17th, 2019, 02:50 PM
Replies: 87
Views: 21,151
Posted By Sagal
I am more targeting a short put option for...

I am more targeting a short put option for November (I think price will go up at one point of time and I am ready at anytime but I think more September to December) if I can have a short put option...
Forum: Commodities April 4th, 2019, 03:05 PM
Replies: 87
Views: 21,151
Posted By Sagal
Agree with your observation, my point is...

Agree with your observation, my point is precisely that it is not a recent minimum
https://www.home.saxo/insights/content-hub/articles/2019/04/03/starbucks-reaching-limit-of-arabicas-decline
Forum: Commodities April 3rd, 2019, 04:51 PM
Replies: 87
Views: 21,151
Posted By Sagal
Another word about COT and coffee, we are far...

Another word about COT and coffee, we are far from the maximum short positions from the speculators, I wouldn't rely on that. I have to say as well that on the fundamental or on the weather or on the...
Forum: Commodities April 3rd, 2019, 04:31 PM
Replies: 87
Views: 21,151
Posted By Sagal
+1 with Myrrdin I have the next three contracts...

+1 with Myrrdin I have the next three contracts with selling put options (vertical spread) on cocoa US

Is this file the most active to discuss softs and therefore coffee?

Are you still so...
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