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Search: Posts Made By: animalSpiritArb1
Forum: Currencies August 26th, 2015, 07:25 AM
Replies: 56
Views: 19,953
Posted By animalSpiritArb1
Economics != Keynesianism any more than trading...

Economics != Keynesianism any more than trading equals technical analysis.

PeakGrowth , I have read everything Schwager has done, even Fundamental Analysis.

Is great to read risk 1% a trade...
Forum: Currencies August 25th, 2015, 05:29 PM
Replies: 56
Views: 19,953
Posted By animalSpiritArb1
That is muddling up economics and investing IMO....

That is muddling up economics and investing IMO. People are rational in their decision making in general but being rational involves using heuristics and these heuristics produce bad decisions under...
Forum: Traders Hideout August 25th, 2015, 07:35 AM
Replies: 42
Views: 18,827
Posted By animalSpiritArb1
I honestly believe most gold bugs just need help...

I honestly believe most gold bugs just need help with depression:

"IF only we could convert our currency to gold THEN I would be happy!"

The whole doom and gloom world view just fits right into...
Forum: Currencies August 23rd, 2015, 10:49 PM
Replies: 56
Views: 11,843
Posted By animalSpiritArb1
Down 8%!! So sick. I really wanted to...

Down 8%!!

So sick. I really wanted to counter trend trade tomorrow but can't step in front of that, damn. Although if we open down something crazy it might be a good trade.

I guess on the...
Forum: Stocks and ETFs August 23rd, 2015, 01:56 PM
Replies: 288
Views: 63,351
Posted By animalSpiritArb1
I don't understand how SpaceX can expect to...

I don't understand how SpaceX can expect to survive the deaths that it will take to get humans to mars.

Apollo cost a few people's lives in accidents. Mars is another order of magnitude compared...
Forum: Currencies August 23rd, 2015, 01:41 PM
Replies: 56
Views: 11,843
Posted By animalSpiritArb1
A huge problem China has now is after banning >5%...

A huge problem China has now is after banning >5% shareholders from selling is you have probably scared off any large players who would be looking for value here. I have never been a big fan of the...
Forum: Off-Topic August 23rd, 2015, 01:30 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 1,310
Posted By animalSpiritArb1
Like anything, if you start with the mindset that...

Like anything, if you start with the mindset that you are unable to do something you will just prove yourself correct.

A good method I find is:

1.Find 1 of the millions of recipes online that...
Forum: Traders Hideout August 23rd, 2015, 01:24 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 2,521
Posted By animalSpiritArb1
Those numbers look to me like a standard random...

Those numbers look to me like a standard random edge-less MA cross system that happens to be profitable on that specific dataset but will lose money in forward testing and with transaction costs.
Forum: Cryptocurrency August 22nd, 2015, 12:27 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 1,925
Posted By animalSpiritArb1
Mike Tyson Bitcoin ATM

:boxing:

Mike Tyson's Bitcoin ATM is now a thing (http://www.engadget.com/2015/08/21/mike-tyson-bitcoin-atm/)
Forum: Currencies August 21st, 2015, 09:20 PM
Replies: 56
Views: 11,843
Posted By animalSpiritArb1
It would be interesting to compare tick data from...

It would be interesting to compare tick data from the S&P to tick data from SSE Composite Index.
Forum: Cryptocurrency August 21st, 2015, 09:03 PM
Replies: 14
Views: 5,676
Posted By animalSpiritArb1
I would love to be long bitcoin here but I would...

I would love to be long bitcoin here but I would never trust the infrastructure with a dime.

London Trader, even if that is true I guess I have come around to a cryptocurrency becoming the floor...
Forum: Traders Hideout August 21st, 2015, 07:36 AM
Replies: 17
Views: 16,004
Posted By animalSpiritArb1
I am trying to get long NQ this morning and will...

I am trying to get long NQ this morning and will hold and roll if I can get up.
I am a sucker for huge vix spikes because it creates such huge asymmetrical bets in a bull market.


edit.
me - 0...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management August 20th, 2015, 07:21 PM
Replies: 11
Views: 4,077
Posted By animalSpiritArb1
The problem is your brain is fundamentally flawed...

The problem is your brain is fundamentally flawed when it comes to dealing with stochastic events like this. The best example is from Thinking, Fast and Slow by Kahneman:

3 sets of the sex of six...
Forum: Traders Hideout August 20th, 2015, 06:39 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 5,204
Posted By animalSpiritArb1
Institutional stat arb has been dead for a decade...

Institutional stat arb has been dead for a decade at least. This is not new stuff we are talking about. It is an old misnomer sales pitch that predated any real computing power. Maybe there was...
Forum: Options August 19th, 2015, 08:08 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 1,748
Posted By animalSpiritArb1
fminus, if you put in a market order for 8k QQQ...

fminus, if you put in a market order for 8k QQQ 11/20/15 $49 puts it will get filled easy.
You would want to sell some, I would want to sell some...There is no way you would have trouble getting a...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management August 17th, 2015, 02:36 PM
Replies: 144
Views: 27,509
Posted By animalSpiritArb1
I am a psycho about staying optimally hydrated...

I am a psycho about staying optimally hydrated and I find if I have a vente Starbucks I literally can't get hydrated and want to take a nap eventually.

My go to is a Bialetti Moka stove top...
Forum: Off-Topic August 17th, 2015, 02:19 PM
Replies: 10
Views: 2,363
Posted By animalSpiritArb1
What is more interesting is that people fall for...

What is more interesting is that people fall for the same con job over and over and over. Every generation needs their guy in a suit in front of an audience talking about money with a special course...
Forum: Traders Hideout August 17th, 2015, 10:44 AM
Replies: 527
Views: 350,553
Posted By animalSpiritArb1
I have finally got down to reading Thinking, Fast...

I have finally got down to reading Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman .

Just unbelievably good and should be an absolutely mandatory recommendation for traders.

I have always assumed...
Forum: Currencies August 17th, 2015, 10:30 AM
Replies: 8
Views: 1,686
Posted By animalSpiritArb1
"You insist that there is something a machine...

"You insist that there is something a machine cannot do. If you will tell me precisely what it is that a machine cannot do, then I can always make a machine which will do just that!"

-John Von...
Forum: Traders Hideout August 15th, 2015, 11:26 AM
Replies: 138
Views: 57,026
Posted By animalSpiritArb1
If you start with $1000 to trade oil you are...

If you start with $1000 to trade oil you are leveraged about 40:1.
Using a risk free rate of 1% to justify using that amount of leverage you would need a sharpe ratio of 4.5, Mean annual return of...
Forum: Traders Hideout August 14th, 2015, 06:00 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 5,204
Posted By animalSpiritArb1
You can say this for any form of trade you put on...

You can say this for any form of trade you put on really. Tools are tools, trading ideas are trading ideas.

I have heard the newer way to do stat arb is to find your pairs and then bet on that...
Forum: Cryptocurrency August 14th, 2015, 05:40 PM
Replies: 14
Views: 5,676
Posted By animalSpiritArb1
I have come around to the idea of bitcoin once I...

I have come around to the idea of bitcoin once I removed my blinders that who will really want to use it are people who have their assets denominated in currency outside the major currencies.

I...
Forum: Traders Hideout August 14th, 2015, 05:30 PM
Replies: 8
Views: 3,604
Posted By animalSpiritArb1
If you know things are range bound then buy the...

If you know things are range bound then buy the low and short the high of the range.

The tough part is the next tick in the future and if the regime has switched or not.
Forum: Psychology and Money Management August 14th, 2015, 05:25 PM
Replies: 18
Views: 4,074
Posted By animalSpiritArb1
That study sounds like junk science IMO. So...

That study sounds like junk science IMO.

So if you took the same group of non-depressed people and made them feel bad their ability would increase and vice versa? Doesn't pass the smell test and...
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