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Search: Posts Made By: Greg Loehr
Forum: Options September 8th, 2013, 06:29 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 8,690
Posted By Greg Loehr
Take a look at YHOO for example. We're watching...

Take a look at YHOO for example. We're watching this closely and this strategy is up 5.9% in first month.

CLF is another.
Forum: Options August 13th, 2013, 07:24 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 8,690
Posted By Greg Loehr
Thanks. If you're going to sell an iron...

Thanks.

If you're going to sell an iron condor, sell the options with a 16 delta. That puts your short strikes approximately at the end of the expected range on both sides, and now at least...
Forum: Options August 8th, 2013, 06:47 AM
Replies: 2
Views: 1,216
Posted By Greg Loehr
Strangle closed out for a wash. Try again next...

Strangle closed out for a wash. Try again next time.
Forum: Options August 5th, 2013, 08:17 AM
Replies: 30
Views: 8,690
Posted By Greg Loehr
Yes, it's figured into every option, and every...

Yes, it's figured into every option, and every expiration. But keep in mind a few things. First, it's an approximation. It's pretty close, but still an approximation. Second, it's constantly...
Forum: Options August 3rd, 2013, 10:02 AM
Replies: 30
Views: 8,690
Posted By Greg Loehr
But...also remember that whenever you attach a...

But...also remember that whenever you attach a probability to something, you also have to attach a time frame. So using the delta as a surrogate for probability assumes expiration as the time frame.
Forum: Options August 3rd, 2013, 09:12 AM
Replies: 30
Views: 8,690
Posted By Greg Loehr
It's not a strategy. If you're interested in the...

It's not a strategy. If you're interested in the probability of an option expiring in/out of the money, you can just look at the delta. It's a decent approximation of an option's probability of...
Forum: Options July 29th, 2013, 07:03 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 1,216
Posted By Greg Loehr
GLD volatility a buy

I'll be the first to admit I'm not much for technical analysis, but my opinion is that GLD is consolidating. Add to that the fact that I think the implied volatility is pretty low, at least for the...
Forum: Options July 29th, 2013, 10:54 AM
Replies: 30
Views: 8,690
Posted By Greg Loehr
Why not just use the delta of the option to...

Why not just use the delta of the option to calculate the probability of expiring in/out of the money?
Forum: Options July 28th, 2013, 12:43 PM
Replies: 31
Views: 11,481
Posted By Greg Loehr
Right! The question is really amount the amount...

Right! The question is really amount the amount of money at risk. Putting $10 into a trade, knowing that you can't lose the $10, and that the $10 isn't going to make you any money either, doesn't...
Forum: Options July 26th, 2013, 02:41 PM
Replies: 31
Views: 11,481
Posted By Greg Loehr
The vega of an ITM call is the same as the OTM...

The vega of an ITM call is the same as the OTM put with the same strike, and vice versa. There's no benefit to an ITM strangle.

As for trading an ITM strangle for the sole purpose of raising the...
Forum: Options July 26th, 2013, 12:27 PM
Replies: 31
Views: 11,481
Posted By Greg Loehr
The $10 is not at risk. The minimum value of the...

The $10 is not at risk. The minimum value of the trade in this example is $10 regardless of what the stock does. So you're putting $10 into the trade, the $10 does nothing for you, and then you get...
Forum: Options July 26th, 2013, 08:17 AM
Replies: 31
Views: 11,481
Posted By Greg Loehr
It's not a matter of 'agreeing' about an ITM...

It's not a matter of 'agreeing' about an ITM strangle versus an OTM. Synthetically, they're the same trade. Mathematically they're the same.

Assume stock is at $100. Buying the 95 put, 105 call...
Forum: Options July 25th, 2013, 08:06 AM
Replies: 11
Views: 4,986
Posted By Greg Loehr
With this particular strike selection (so far...

With this particular strike selection (so far OTM), and a $5-wide vertical spread in general, the implied volatility is pretty much meaningless because the vega of each strike is very similar, and in...
Forum: Options July 25th, 2013, 07:59 AM
Replies: 31
Views: 11,481
Posted By Greg Loehr
As for the calendar and wide bid/ask spreads: no...

As for the calendar and wide bid/ask spreads: no reason to close calendar yet because I think the price will continue to improve. The wide bid/ask spreads aren't necessarily a problem because I...
Forum: Options July 24th, 2013, 10:41 AM
Replies: 11
Views: 4,986
Posted By Greg Loehr
I'm assuming your strike selection is...

I'm assuming your strike selection is hypothetical because that spread as of yesterday was worth about 10-cents. Not much profit potential after commissions.

Anyway, right now that spread is so...
Forum: Options July 24th, 2013, 09:54 AM
Replies: 11
Views: 4,986
Posted By Greg Loehr
It's management of the trade. Either closing it...

It's management of the trade. Either closing it or rolling it when the market starts to move too much against you.
Forum: Options July 24th, 2013, 09:52 AM
Replies: 30
Views: 8,690
Posted By Greg Loehr
As to the original question, there's no such...

As to the original question, there's no such thing as a "good" risk vs reward in that there's no edge in option pricing. If/when 'edge' appears, the computers at Goldman Sachs pick it up and it gets...
Forum: Options July 24th, 2013, 09:47 AM
Replies: 31
Views: 11,481
Posted By Greg Loehr
Update on AAPL & GD ideas

AAPL calendar is up 46%; GD strangle is down 5%. Put them together and that's a nice return for one day.
Forum: Options July 24th, 2013, 09:11 AM
Replies: 31
Views: 11,481
Posted By Greg Loehr
By ITM, do you mean one option or both options...

By ITM, do you mean one option or both options ITM? Not sure how that increases the chances of profit.
Forum: Options July 23rd, 2013, 12:07 PM
Replies: 31
Views: 11,481
Posted By Greg Loehr
Here's another one. Not the best example, but...

Here's another one. Not the best example, but something to watch for a "vol" trade.

Buying to open the GD Aug 82.50-85 strangle for about $2.50'ish. Subject to about a $0.64 vol crush, which is...
Forum: Options July 23rd, 2013, 11:30 AM
Replies: 31
Views: 11,481
Posted By Greg Loehr
Here's an idea for AAPL earnings today after the...

Here's an idea for AAPL earnings today after the close:

Buy Aug2 425 calls,
Sell Aug1 425 calls,
As a long calendar spread for a debit of $0.65.

Should be "safe" in about a 30-point range.
Forum: Options July 23rd, 2013, 09:17 AM
Replies: 31
Views: 11,481
Posted By Greg Loehr
Buying straddles/strangles heading into an...

Buying straddles/strangles heading into an earnings announcement can be tough. Even though it looks like the straddle will profit from the increased vol, it's also decreasing from theta. You might...
Forum: Options July 23rd, 2013, 09:05 AM
Replies: 4
Views: 1,748
Posted By Greg Loehr
Strato, Don't get fixated on a risk:reward...

Strato,

Don't get fixated on a risk:reward number. There's really no such thing as 'improving' it. Cogito ergo sum has some good ideas with a vertical on directional calendar. If you're using...
Forum: Options July 23rd, 2013, 08:57 AM
Replies: 12
Views: 6,156
Posted By Greg Loehr
Analyzing a calendar: 1. Look at the day...

Analyzing a calendar:

1. Look at the day after a previous earnings release which has a similar vol crush to what you expect.
2. Using the option chain from that day, look at the calendars with...
Forum: Options July 23rd, 2013, 08:38 AM
Replies: 6
Views: 1,600
Posted By Greg Loehr
Marlin, Start with your broker or the CBOE...

Marlin,

Start with your broker or the CBOE as sources for good, free options knowledge and start learning the basics. Options are not like trading stock on margin because the dollar risk of one...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 25

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