end of thread?

not quite, I think

I've been playing around "money-making" online since 2001.
Learned a lot along the way.
Took a voluntary break from it since 2006 because I was really busy doing other stuff.
Heard about binary options early this year and checked out a few of the "standard" offers/platforms.
Thought to myself "OMG, no way, that's the same old semi-illegal bunch at it from a different angle....."

But I am a curious person, so I dug deeper and my friend Google spit up this NADEX thing.

That one is completely different from anything else I've seen before!
1, it is fully legal to participate for US persons
2, they offer extensive education for free
3, you can have a free demo account for 2 weeks
4, you can start with just $100
5, you know exactly what your risk is for every trade
6, the fees are reasonable, just 90 cents per "contract"

So I signed up for a demo account and tried out some ideas that I had.
It took me two days to understand how to consistently make a predictable profit.

After the demo period was over I signed up for a real account and put the required minimum $100 in it.
I have been working with that "capital" ever since, just one little contract daily, trading for just the approximately 30 minutes that I can spare during my lunch break.

So far I haven't lost on a single trade.

The main thing I learned is:
You don't have to be able to predict where a certain index, currency, or commodity is going to head towards within an hour, or a day, or a week.
All you need to be able to predict is what the other people in the market will believe is going to happen within the next 15-30 minutes.

All the trading forums are full of crabs that want to pull down any other crab that tries to crawl out of the bucket. They want to drag everyone down. That’s why I seldom post anywhere anymore.

There is a hedging video on the Nadex youtube channel. It gives a quick explanation on hedging. They need to do more stuff on hedging. I only found one video called: "Offsetting Positions"

I can't post links becaue I only have one post.

Good luck,

dVL

I have no clue how to price a binary option, but I know that the one I am trading against has hired mathematicians for pricing them.

I am not convinced that I have an edge under these conditions.

If I cannot calculate the value of a binary option, I am just gambling.

I am not a gambler.


What do you think has been my conclusion?

- Saya tidak ingin membuat broker kaya -

I have no clue how to price a binary option, but I know that the one I am trading against has hired mathematicians for pricing them.

I am not convinced that I have an edge under these conditions.

If I cannot calculate the value of a binary option, I am just gambling.

I am not a gambler.


What do you think has been my conclusion?

- Saya tidak ingin membuat broker kaya -

Ok

Just know that the way these products are structured makes them quite "expensive"....

I have a basic idea how to value an option, but this would not be enough to have an edge. But with binary options it is even worse. Those are just packages of different derivatives, which have been created to make the creators rich. If I trade them, I am certainly not getting value for money.

And then I do not touch things, which I do not understand.

Saya telah menghabiskan beberapa bulan di Indonesia.

I have been demoing Nadex on and off for around 3 months and let's just say that things habe been going very well.

Now I wonder how realistic their demo version is ? You know what they say, when it looks too good to be true...

Does anyone have a live account with them ?

the inside market?

[if i read your post correctly] after the presentation, for those of us who have read Jessie Livermore's biography, the image of a bucket shop comes to mind . If its true that 90% of the traders lose, it pays to be the house!

in all fairness, we as traders, all we do is make bets.

I think what nadex does, at least for the binary options is to allow a smaller retail account be able to trade the markets. for example, I believe 5 nadex options = 1 emini sp500 futures contract. so a trader can adjust the risk, trade 1/5 or 1/2 the emini. or be able to trade more volatile mkts like crude oil or gold with limited risk and limited capital.

no need for a broker, you open an account directly with the 'exchange'. with as little at $100

Hello,

I am posting this to encourage anyone who is considering Nadex. The more volume traded better for everyone. Nadex’s “Bull Spread” will allow you to trade the underlying instrument WITHOUT a stop loss. You can laterally have a 10-point margin of error on an ES futures contract if you are properly hedge with an accompanying Nadex contract. Of course you have to pay for the privilege: The cost can be as small as one ES point for every ES contract traded.


If you don’t want to trade futures, you can just trade the “Bull Spread” on Nadex. The costs are very competitive and again - you have a defined risk.

The Nadex website does a poor job at explaining how to hedge...too bad.

I guess this stuff is only for the advanced trader....



Good Luck,

dVL