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If you built the perfect system, would you share it or horde it?
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If you built the perfect system, would you share it or horde it?

  #51 (permalink)
Elite Member
Christchurch, New Zealand
 
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Raise capital, start a fund, consistently destroy every benchmark, eventually become a billionaire. All so easy with the perfect system...

No need to waste time feeding my courses/systems/trading rooms to hungry retail punters, when i'm charging a 20% performance fee on my perfectly profitable, now billion dollar + fund. 20 years down the track i'd probably of been investigated by the SEC 100+ times- however i'd now be the richest person off all time, even after my net-worth was adjusted for inflation.

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  #52 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Sarasota FL
 
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Odd that I didn't see this thread before, but I see it was started a long time ago and has lapsed a bit until just now.

My answer is that there can't be a perfect system. Markets adjust, and a system that is always right would quickly have markets adjusting to it. For example, by the time you had made enough money to really cash in, others would notice the shifts in supply/demand you were making, and would play against you. You may remember the famous (or once-famous) "London whale" who, trading for JPMorgan in London a couple of years ago, almost brought Morgan down with his losses when traders noticed the distortions he was making in his markets and bet against him.... not even knowing who he was, just seeing his influence, and inferring the size of the position he was carrying.

This may not sound like a great example, since he didn't have anything like a perfect system, but the point is just that his size made him a target. So would my size, or yours, if we could grind out the wins that are in our (OK, my) fantasies....

Now, let's say we had, not a "perfect", but a "real good" system. If we could stay on top of changes in the market that would certainly come, not necessarily in response to what we were doing, but just because they will come, then yes, we could do quite well over time. Just not on a scale of total world domination that our (well, my ) fantasies sometimes have.

Bob.

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  #53 (permalink)
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bobwest View Post
Odd that I didn't see this thread before, but I see it was started a long time ago and has lapsed a bit until just now.

My answer is that there can't be a perfect system. Markets adjust, and a system that is always right would quickly have markets adjusting to it. For example, by the time you had made enough money to really cash in, others would notice the shifts in supply/demand you were making, and would play against you. You may remember the famous (or once-famous) "London whale" who, trading for JPMorgan in London a couple of years ago, almost brought Morgan down with his losses when traders noticed the distortions he was making in his markets and bet against him.... not even knowing who he was, just seeing his influence, and inferring the size of the position he was carrying.

This may not sound like a great example, since he didn't have anything like a perfect system, but the point is just that his size made him a target. So would my size, or yours, if we could grind out the wins that are in our (OK, my) fantasies....

Now, let's say we had, not a "perfect", but a "real good" system. If we could stay on top of changes in the market that would certainly come, not necessarily in response to what we were doing, but just because they will come, then yes, we could do quite well over time. Just not on a scale of total world domination that our (well, my ) fantasies sometimes have.

Bob.

This is the "perfect" system though Bob, The AI's in this system are so intuitive they've already calculated the exact reactions to changes in supply/demand and have adjusted for it, it's so well disguised inside dark pools and is usually matched through alternative trading systems, that transactions rarely surface into the order book. Even the most advanced algo systems can't make sense of it. Impossible you say? Well, that's why the SEC's been so involved..


...Now i'm just here chilling with my Billions, laughing at all the other guys who discovered "the perfect system" and then tried to turn into a course with a live trading room.

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  #54 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Sarasota FL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Sierra Chart
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 3,633 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 26,745 given, 11,108 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Neo1 View Post
This is the "perfect" system though Bob, The AI's in this system are so intuitive they've already calculated the exact reactions to changes in supply/demand and have adjusted for it, it's so well disguised inside dark pools and is usually matched through alternative trading systems, that transactions rarely surface into the order book. Even the most advanced algo systems can't make sense of it. Impossible you say? Well, that's why the SEC's been so involved..


...Now i'm just here chilling with my Billions, laughing at all the other guys who discovered "the perfect system" and then tried to turn into a course with a live trading room.



Bob.

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