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Winning Trade % Confidence vs. Straight Losers Expectation
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Winning Trade % Confidence vs. Straight Losers Expectation

  #21 (permalink)
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RM99 View Post
At the risk of being anal, not exactly.

What the chart is showing is that over a sample set of n events, the likelihood of repetitive losses are as indicated.

I know that it seems like it's saying the same thing but it's not.

The expectation for the next trade is the same as it was for the last trade.......

So just to be technical, you shouldn't view it as saying "well, I've lost 3 in a row so the expectation of the next trade being a loser very small" that's dangerous. As pointed out in another thread, you CAN however approach the concept from a string standpoint and if you encorporate the same strategy over all events(trades) then it comes out in the wash.

Basically, in order for this to work for a money management strategy, you have to approach the concept consistently among all trades, you can't decide to just jump in and cherry pick a single event, because as I said, the expectation for any single trade is the same/similar.

I think he was using it more as a confidence bolster to stick to your guns and realize that just because you lose 2 trades in a row, don't be fearful/pensive and stick to the plan and be disciplined and when it comes out in the wash (100 trades or such) then it will be in your favor.


I get the distinction you are making thx

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