Biggest problems to date have been:
- moving to B/E too early;
- and/or exiting trade before 20 tick stop has been hit. Only to see trade frequently reverse and eventually hit target.
Is 20 ticks stop loss good/optimal on 30m?
Would mutiple contracts be better? ... And if so how many contracts (e.g, 2 or 3) and what stops/targets should I use?
Would a trailing stop be better on the last contract to maximize profit?
For example, today's signal would have resulted in +60 ticks target being hit but had MAE of +230 ticks.
Last edited by sleepy; October 18th, 2010 at 05:00 PM.
It's a good risk/reward ratio, but you can't have fixed stops and targets and expect them to work long term. Your stop and target needs to be a function of the current market, some call it price action, some call it volatility.
Why? What exactly happens with CL after YOU enter a trade and it goes 30 ticks your way? I am pretty sure nothing. Your stop is a factor of market conditions. Your stop is when you are wrong. You went long, but at <xxx> you concede that you were, in fact, wrong. How can you be wrong after it moves 30 ticks in your direction?
I understand you are using it as a trailing stop, a form of money management. My argument is fixed/static trailing stops don't work. You would be far better off to simply exit the trade if there is a reason to exit, whether that be at 2 ticks, 30 ticks, whatever, instead of arbitrarily assigning a fixed stop/trail value.
How much live forward-test data do you have with your method? 100 trades? 500 trades?
That data is a necessary part of not just telling you if the method holds water or not, but also it has a psychological component to help you get past mistakes like moving stops or exiting trades too early (all of which are fear based).
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Mike is spot on with this one, and it's the same in all the different contracts. In addition it speaks to the other post in the psy forum today with the HSI position.
Unless your investing your scalping, for 5 ticks, or 10 ticks, or 100 ticks. It's a scalp and should be treated as such.
Who knows whether your trading a day like today where crude fell huge or a really choppy day? You can't you can only move your stops with the trade direction and try to stay on the right side for as long as you can.... Then say SWEET and have a sandwich.
Check out Garys CL thread here . Hes scalping for ticks while looking for runners but the premise is the same as what you are trying to achieve . Personally I go for a 1/1 risk target all in and all out because Ive found that the range between the trigger and the stop is usually the range of the next move in the direction of the trend . Thats "usually' and a function of testing , practice , practice and practice . Thats EURUSD and I only trade the one pair so CL I dunno what would work . It does pay to deeply focus on one instrument and get to know its personality , if you notice the sharpest guys trade one instrument .