Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
Thanks for sharing. Can you share more how an indicator alone can automate everything? Do you have a script running, or perhaps use one some software / service?
My 50 cents on the topic. The more I listen to interviews with traders, the more I am getting convinced that trading is a form of gambling. It is unfortunate the term gambling has a bad rap, though I understand why.
As is well known, about ten percent of traders consistently make money. Among professional gamblers this number is lower, but then casinos attract a different kind of personality as well. Still, there are professionals who make a living playing casino games, bet on sporting events and play high stakes poker.
Poker is a particularly interesting example. There are several instances when World Series were won by the same individual several times, in a row or otherwise. And if you look at the participants of the main event, some names repeat from one year to another. And that's in the game heavily influenced by chance. So it seems there is a skill that determines success in a largely random game.
I believe success in trading is not determined by a trading system, and this statement has been proven numerous times. The trivial "two traders use the same system, one makes money another loses" has been around for a long time. As mentioned earlier in this thread, there are many ways to trade the market, and all of them have been successful in making extraordinary amounts of money. In Perry Kaufmann's book, Trading Systems and Methods, there is a chapter on financial astrology, and it's written in a dead serious tone. I am not going to start the debate on astrology, but I believe Kaufmann could write a chapter on trading using coffee grounds or tea leaves, and it would work for some traders.
If you think of a market in a simplified way, there are two possible outcomes: the price goes up or the price goes down, each outcome being 50%, similar to a coin toss, and so your chance of winning is fifty-fifty if you enter randomly. If you set your profit target a little higher and the stop loss a little lower, in other words, make a little more money from winners than you lose from losers, you will be profitable.
Sure, there are some instances where the probability of a directional move is slightly higher. Trading with the trend, entering in the opposite direction of an extended parabolic move etc., may have a slightly higher probability of being right.
There are literally thousands of entry signals, all of which have been demonstrated to be both profitable and losing in backtests, at different times, markets, time frames and so on and so forth. Lots of successful traders trade candlestick patterns, most of which have been shown to be useless in backtests.
The most important part though, in my opinion, is risk management. That includes trade management, position sizing, scaling in and out, stops and so on. Virtually all successful traders attribute their success to increasing size when things go well, and folding when their methods are not working. Very similar to poker.
At the end of the day one can be successful with something that resonates with some dark corners of one's personality. Some may be comfortable and therefore successful with statistical analysis, some with casting runes.
Coming back to the title of the thread, indicators can be useful. You can assess the degree of a parabolic move visually or you can use and indicator - how far and how fast the price moved away from the MA, for example, or RSI, or Bollinger bands etc. Whatever works.
That's my categorical opinion. Now, to ensure consistency and credibility of what I am saying: I am a breakeven trader with a small account, not consistently profitable. Therefore you must believe everything I said.
Granted there are two possible outcomes.The difference as I see it is how I as a trader is allowed to bet on those outcomes. It's not win or lose my bet. I can add to my bet if the outcome is in my favor or take my bet off the table if the outcome is unfavorable.
It's not a case of winning or losing a set amount. The trader is in control of how much and when he bets.
"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
