You posted your numbers. I could post some numbers too. What good would that do?

There is no backup to what you are saying. You are asking people to, what accept your word?

The backup that I am talking about is how you did it. If you state how you did it, then someone can look for themselves to see that your numbers make sense. You are afraid that some of us here on futures.io will trade against you and ruin your edge. I have heard that said so many times over the decades that I have been trading!

Do you really think that if some of us here traded your method that it would have even a scintilla of impact on the market? You do understand that more than 70% of the volume on the ES alone is from algo firms?

Well, as you said, Good Luck!

I am little confused what you mean by trading order flow only.No matter what method of market analysis you use like volume spread ,delta,icbergs or order flow any of such market actions transpires finally into a certain price action.Market can only move in two directions up or down there is no third direction for the market.
Until you don't look at the market context how can you merely judge by order flow that at a particular point in time, the smart money is using a pump and dump strategy or pump and go.
So in my view price actions indicators are lagging and leading as well, depends what resources you have at your disposal.
I am trading futures since 2013 used all kind of order flow 3rd party tools there is no guarantee of consistancy with order flow only tools.
Trying every thing finally I came to the conclusion that price action based swing indicators are the best.
Market no matter what moves in certain swing patterns if you read the market context for last 8 to 12 hours you can easily figure out
what kind of price action is happening in the market on that particular moment in that particular instrument.

In my view trading is nothing but 99% is risk management. Until you don't develop a good risk management startegy no matter what tools you use order flow or price action indicators you will never get consistency.
If you use some good swing indicator with renko candles you can manage your risk very effectively.
In my view there is no absolute method of trading to be successful. It depends what kind of trading skills you develop and how good you mange your risk has more weightage than just using one or other kind of trading methodolgy using order flow or Price action indicators.
You would have seen in real world in different games some players are technically sound wile other not so technically sound and aggressive but still very successful.

As Promised in last post Now we will work on the fact whether to use technical indicators is waste of time or worth it.
Which indicators to use is an individuals choice depending on his her knowledge,resources at disposal, skill/style, experience and market conditions.

I will present some charts here which will have tons of information still look simple and at a glance you will be able to comprehend six months to years market price action context in few seconds on a single page. No matter what style of trading you like there will be some thing for everyone.
1-If you are mechanical trader (There is something for you)
2-If you are discretionary trader (There is something for you)
3-If you are Order flow trader (There is something for you)
4-if you are Momentum trader ( There is something for you)
5-If you are scalper (There is something for you)
6-if You are Trend trader (There is something for you)
7-if you are day trader (There is something for you)
8-if you are Swing trader (There is something for you)
9-if you are gambler (God bless you)

No single technical indicator no matter how good it is works 100% of the times.Trading is a probability game.All you need to do is to look
for the high probability opportunities by finding confluence amongst the various type of informations you have.We do not need too much
information and too many indicators to be a successful trader.We will discuss a bare minimal technical indicators needed and free resources availbe that will take your trading to next level.

They say Nothing in the world can take the place of persistence. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent!
I took these words from our Elite member Respected Joseph Connors's posts and I believe and live this.Success is not getting some goal or reaching some land mark but it is the name of that struggle which you do to accomplish or achieve those noble and worthwhile goals.
Persistence refers to the quality of continuing to pursue a goal or task despite facing obstacles, setbacks, or difficulties. It means persistence is Success.

In trading you need to learn and make some risk management strategy and be persistent with it . I explained risk management concept in my previous post though not detailed but still enough to get some clues.If you have some trade setups and market is not comming to your set ups eve you spent few hours staring at the charts do not get frustraded and get into trade just for the sake of trading but wait and follow your entry rules or let the day go without trading, try not to chase the market As this discussion is not about psychological aspect of trading so I will leave it here and move to the Chart set ups.

Whatever candlesticks types you use to visualise the big picture and any market price action it is up to you.But as I said I only use Renko
candles (Uni renko in my case) of suitable brick size according to price action volatility pattern of that particular instrument.I follow and trade NQ,MNQ and (NAS100 CFD),ES,MES and (SPX-500),YM,MYM(US30),NG,CL,MCL,GC,MGC,6E,6B,6A and last but not least DAX(Ger30 CFD) Occasionally I trade Britsh pound USDNZD, USDAUD, EURAUD crosses as well on news days.

Here are Bigger Picture charts for Main instruments I trade and different risk reward levels I use for the those instrument levels.I use E-minis for high probability Scalp and momentum trades and Micros for big risk reward trades as I can easily scale in multiple positions as the trade progress in my direction especial for funded program accounts.Though I trade of single chart I mean to trade MNQ I don't have to open MNQ chart separately I trade it of NQ charts but cross trades are place on Micros as well through trade copying software.

In this thread there was also one opinion that MNQ(micros) and NQ(E-Minis) are different asset classes but I have different opinion and experience as both drive their price direction form NASDAQ100 Index Price movement so basically follow the same technicals withe few ticks price action difference ocassionally.
This Month APRIL Natural Gas is my Favorite instrument to trade so I will start with Natural Gas.For Natural gas this time it is in Bearish trend and with occasional Retracement in the the vicinity of 225-240 Ticks.At level $1.90 I will be a mechanical Long bias Only trader because of Some seasonal Factors and historical perspective and below that No trading in that instrument.

NG 1

Picture 1 is a same renko chart with no technical indicator on it giving us information that NG may contract is going down and the current
price level.

NG With Indicator

Picture 2 is the same instrument with just one Technical swing Indicators on it which is loading this chart with information.
1-It is NG MAY 2023 Contract with 6 months historical data including today.
2-Back ground colour shows a Bullish/Bearish market bias.
3-Natuaral gas is bearish with its occasional swings/Pull backs from its lowest price in the vicinity of 225-240 Ticks and then resuming trend.
4-in last six months how many times it has swung back to what levels and resumed trend.
5-Those swings or pull backs are potential resistance areas or pivot points in future.
6-The charts presents that the trader has a main trend shit bias at 600 tick swing level for this instrument.
7-Six lines following the instrument lowest price level at an increment of 100 ticks level are giving you specific price action behavior and price levels at different times just at a glance.
So on and so forth.
All this information you are getting in few seconds because this technical indicator has facilitated you to get this information so fast.
Can we read the current and near past market context in few seconds from here
and make our decisions when other factors or parameters are in confluence with this big context.
Without this indicator it would have not been possible.

As I always say every individual is unique with unique, ideas,knowledge, wisdom, experiences ,resources and exposures. I respect and honour every single individual's opinion and comments presented regarding these two topics.

1-Indicators a waste of time
2-Technical indicators use or not to use.

I have made an effort to provide comprehensive insight into these topics.

What is technical Analysis ?

Technical analysis is a form of Market analysis that uses price data (Price action data) and volume data (Order Flow data), typically displayed graphically in charts.Technical analysts use various tools and techniques, such as chart patterns, technical indicators, and trend-lines, to identify these patterns and make predictions about future market movements.

The effectiveness of technical analysis is a topic of debate among financial professionals. Supporters of technical analysis argue that it can be a useful tool for identifying trends and making informed trading decisions, while critics argue that it is unreliable and based on flawed assumptions about market behavior.

It is misconceived that order flow tools/indicators are not technical indicators while from the above definition of technical analysis it is very clear that Technical analysis comprise of both price action data and volume (order flow) data.So any indicator that gives you graphical visualizations of Price movement or price action patterns is a technical indicator irrespective of data its value is calculated from (Order flow data or price action data).

What is price action technical Indicator?
Price action Technical indicators are mathematical calculations that use market price data to calculate their value to visually represent
the price actions on price charts.
Examples of few Price action technical indicators are;
1-Moving avarages (many types)
2-MACD
3-RSI(price action momentum indicators)
4- Bollinger Bands:
5-Fibonacci retracements
6- Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (Has both leading and lagging spans)
7-Elliott Wave Theory based technical indicators
8-Range weighted moving averages
So on and so forth.

Now we will explain what is order flow?
Order flow refers to the buying and selling activity in a financial market, including the volume and direction of trades.Traders use this information to determine which direction the market may be moving and to make trading decisions based on that information.
Some common metrics used in order flow analysis include volume profile, bid-ask spread, tick speed and time and sales data.

Examples of few Technical indicators deriving their value from order flow (Volume data) are:
1-Order flow volume profile
2-Order flow Cummulative delta.
3-Order flow VWAP
4-Order Flow Market Depth Map
5-Order flow heat-map or color-coded chart
6-Order flow Supply demand tools
7-Order flow Zones tools
The above is not an exhaustive list of order flow tools different third party vendors name them differently but the common thing in all
those tools is that all are calculated using volume data(order flow).

Order flow information may also be used in statistical data form(Ninja SuperDom) instead of technical or visual form but to use in trading just looking at order-flow statistical data needs hell lot of pracice and very fast information processing and analysing capabilities to rationalize your trading decisions as at times data comes so fast, that for an average person like myself is hard to read forget about analyzing it realtime.But it may be helpful if you are using some computer aid using some kind of automation.

On the other hand using the same order flow information in the form of technical indicators is way easier to use.I will explain this through
superimposing those tools on Price charts .You will see this makes it so easy for us to read market price action context and order flow tools confluence points which could be our potential high probability trade execution Reference points.

The purpose of technical analysis or technical indicators is to predict or to draw some inferences about future price movements based on
the calculation of historical or present data irrespective of the type of data used (order flow or price action data).


like any trading strategy, it is important to use order flow analysis in conjunction with other technical and fundamental analysis methods to make informed trading decisions.
Ultimately, the usefulness of technical analysis will depend on the individual trader's skill and experience, as well as the specific market conditions they are analyzing.

Purpose of this post was to give clear understanding of order flow and price action based technical analysis especially to the novices in this forum. Now we will discuss the usefulnes of these tools and indictors with graphical representaion on real time market charts in next post.

This will facilitate us to conclude wether to use these tools is waste of time or worth it.

As I always say every individual is unique with unique, ideas,knowledge, wisdom, experiences ,resources and exposures. I respect and honour every single individual's opinion and comments presented regarding these two topics.

1-Indicators a waste of time
2-Technical indicators use or not to use.

I have made an effort to provide comprehensive insight into these topics.

What is technical Analysis ?

Technical analysis is a form of Market analysis that uses price data (Price action data) and volume data (Order Flow data), typically displayed graphically in charts.Technical analysts use various tools and techniques, such as chart patterns, technical indicators, and trend-lines, to identify these patterns and make predictions about future market movements.

The effectiveness of technical analysis is a topic of debate among financial professionals. Supporters of technical analysis argue that it can be a useful tool for identifying trends and making informed trading decisions, while critics argue that it is unreliable and based on flawed assumptions about market behavior.

It is misconceived that order flow tools/indicators are not technical indicators while from the above definition of technical analysis it is very clear that Technical analysis comprise of both price action data and volume (order flow) data.So any indicator that gives you graphical visualizations of Price movement or price action patterns is a technical indicator irrespective of data its value is calculated from (Order flow data or price action data).

What is price action technical Indicator?
Price action Technical indicators are mathematical calculations that use market price data to calculate their value to visually represent
the price actions on price charts.
Examples of few Price action technical indicators are;
1-Moving avarages (many types)
2-MACD
3-RSI(price action momentum indicators)
4- Bollinger Bands:
5-Fibonacci retracements
6- Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (Has both leading and lagging spans)
7-Elliott Wave Theory based technical indicators
8-Range weighted moving averages
So on and so forth.

Now we will explain what is order flow?
Order flow refers to the buying and selling activity in a financial market, including the volume and direction of trades.Traders use this information to determine which direction the market may be moving and to make trading decisions based on that information.
Some common metrics used in order flow analysis include volume profile, bid-ask spread, tick speed and time and sales data.

Examples of few Technical indicators deriving their value from order flow (Volume data) are:
1-Order flow volume profile
2-Order flow Cummulative delta.
3-Order flow VWAP
4-Order Flow Market Depth Map
5-Order flow heat-map or color-coded chart
6-Order flow Supply demand tools
7-Order flow Zones tools
The above is not an exhaustive list of order flow tools different third party vendors name them differently but the common thing in all
those tools is that all are calculated using volume data(order flow).

Order flow information may also be used in statistical data form(Ninja SuperDom) instead of technical or visual form but to use in trading just looking at order-flow statistical data needs hell lot of pracice and very fast information processing and analysing capabilities to rationalize your trading decisions as at times data comes so fast, that for an average person like myself is hard to read forget about analyzing it realtime.But it may be helpful if you are using some computer aid using some kind of automation.

On the other hand using the same order flow information in the form of technical indicators is way easier to use.I will explain this through
superimposing those tools on Price charts .You will see this makes it so easy for us to read market price action context and order flow tools confluence points which could be our potential high probability trade execution Reference points.

The purpose of technical analysis or technical indicators is to predict or to draw some inferences about future price movements based on
the calculation of historical or present data irrespective of the type of data used (order flow or price action data).


like any trading strategy, it is important to use order flow analysis in conjunction with other technical and fundamental analysis methods to make informed trading decisions.
Ultimately, the usefulness of technical analysis will depend on the individual trader's skill and experience, as well as the specific market conditions they are analyzing.

Purpose of this post was to give clear understanding of order flow and price action based technical analysis especially to the novices in this forum. Now we will discuss the usefulnes of these tools and indictors with graphical representaion on real time market charts in next post.

This will facilitate us to conclude wether to use these tools is waste of time or worth it.

Sorry I got attachments problem with this post

If risk management is 99% then entry and execution would never matter. It's a very interesting concept to really think about what matters more the entry or the exit because If you have this 99% risk management then entry matters very little.

But even now..what about gain management or profit management.
As far as this thread being about indicators seems no one is talking about indicators where 90% if them are based on a moving average.

I use whatever I need to make it work which means to make money.

That's all you can do. Even after I started some truths about trading someone asked me what I do or how I do it or how I took 1700 to 10k. That's not at all that incredible when you think that the so fits and nasdaq futs have a 10k range almost weekly. I said I scalped those gains. I also said everyone needs to find out what works for them. I can show you what I did but you won't do it the same way. The mkt also might react differently to the same types of trades now versus back then.

You must always be adapting. Not tweaking on historical moves but tweaking for after lunch based on this mornings action. What is being done by execution firms for clients.

Take good guesses and have some luck and you might make some money. But you will need to trade trade and trade even more to begin to understand how the mkt works.

No way you can make 3 trades a day and ever figure out what's happening. I'm good at knowing what it's going to do in 20 seconds time not 20 minutes. But that's just me and age doesn't matter much in trading. I mean clicking a mouse or keyboard button isn't difficult.

Also humans vs machines. You aren't in a speed competition. The orders you place due to gtc orders placed by machines hours ahead of you..always put you near the end of the book. So you rarely will be filled quickly on priced limit orders.

So the notion of a human beating machines is silly. You don't have the capital to be on the book with 10 lots in icebergs layered across multiple highly positively correlated assets all at the same time to preserve your place in the fill line!

The machines just cancel these orders..thus moving the mkts by cancel. If limit sells are a wall against price moving higher then ..cancelling that 50 lot iceberg in the es will allow it to jump up a step! Where.. perhaps you are 1st in line again to fill! Hft and machines trade this way.

I think most aspiring traders should do way more critical thinking about the mkt on their own rather than scouring the internet for nuggets of knowledge. Teachers teach nuggets and athletes play and get experience. If you can't play then all the knowledge and coaching won't do you any good and beyond that there will be more highly skilled people already ahead of you. Aka freshman football vs senior varsity football.

It takes time energy and money real money to lose in a smart way if you want to learn how to trade. If this site and all the videos on YouTube are an indicator then I would venture to say that people today trying to trade want views and likes over money because having people like you or believe in you is more powerful than money to most people. Money sure you can buy people.. they will like you. But then u feel cheesy and used because your spending money..to be liked. Giving money away at random occasions feels good. To strangers because you figure you get mileage out of that person telling a friend or two And you think your helping in a positive way.

Anyway my point is that trading does not have a holy grail. There is no indicator that always works. There is no style that always works. If that was the case all the big firms would have fired everyone for already figuring it out. Again. It's common thinking sense. Why keep all data scientists employed if it's figured out!!

See they even struggle. Cheating struggling manipulating etc. It's all trading it's all in there.. stop searching n start trading.
Good luck.

To me that is like saying you don't need a speedometer to drive. Correct you really don't need it but it can be nice to have one or a gas gauge or engine temp etc.

I have created so many indicators over the years (decades now) based on other indicators and also just making them if some idea pops into my head that I want to explore.

I trade mainly /es and I fade intraday in direction of the longer term trend (looking at the last 8 hours vs the last 3 months). I use atr/vix for position sizing, bollinger/moving average/internals to determine if I should be buying or selling, $tick and bollinger for entry and previous high/low/ohlc4 for exit. A simple example entry would be if price is moving up daily but is also at the bottom of shorter term bollinger and tick hits -1000 go long one unit when tick comes closes back below -500. Then for exit I get out at previous day high or ohlc4 or more often go do something else letting the trade sit for a few hours.

I really appreciate your insight on this thread. I could really learn from you. I'm going to attempt to search your previous posts because I really like what you had to say in the few posts you made here, some relevant to the original question but more of your responses relate to "price action" which is so critical to predicting a target. Anyway, you're speaking to my trading method and I was following every word precisely because I look at the long term time frames too while at the same time employing 500/1000tk etc for trend; I totally can see how you trade (Bollinger, 20MA), although I have a few different things I adjust (as I don't use Bollinger but it couldn't hurt to incorporate into the mix). But regarding your chart example, delineating the highs/lows and mid-range of previous day... I'll start to incorporate that as well because I can see the value that would offer. Really appreciate your take on price action overall and your explanations. For any beginner traders here who are having a hard time, you'll get a lot out of learning "price action". I'd start by paying close attention to someone like three86 who is already sharing a lot of knowledge. Thank you!