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Thinking out loud: Trading is Gambling in disguise, Loving the process, etc...


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Thinking out loud: Trading is Gambling in disguise, Loving the process, etc...

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  #11 (permalink)
 Tudman 
Toronto Canada
 
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I love this post. Am not gonna split hairs on what gambling is your or how it is the highest paying job in the world. Letís say that it can pay handsomely. There!!!
I am still learning this craft. Reading experiences from others and in general there is no crystal ball or some special indicator that guarantees success. Many traders who are not successful can still point out support and resistance and read the charts just as well as those who are successful. Wherein lies the difference imho is psychology. Knowing when to stop. Knowing when to push.
I have followed traders who swear by having a daily goal and stopping for the day. I also follow a trader who says why stop but push if you are seeing the market clearly. I have blown accounts and had the gamblers fallacy of thinking the market will continue to give. Ohhhh if I made $500 in a few minutes. I could make $5000 in a few hours. This mentality did me in. You could also be -$500 in a few minutes as well.

I see trading as calculated gambling. When I play 21 at the casino and I noticed that a lot of face cards are still in the deck I will push it. Increase my bet size. Trading is no different. When I see a big gap between prices and no volume between any support or resistance I will push it. Yes it is gambling because I can still guess wrong. I like to refer to trading as a hobby. Itís a hobby until I can make a living off of it.

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  #12 (permalink)
goodoboy
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Kefkas Laugh View Post
We are gamblers.

Good Morning Kefkas Laugh,

I 1000% agree.

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  #13 (permalink)
amNinya
Ghent, Belgium
 
 
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I mean ... your not wrong. But i see it more as calculated gambling. Its more like poker than it is roulette.
I just do DCA investment in long-term stocks, basicaly stocks i will hold forever. I did recently starting buying some LEAPS options, might be the beginning of my end

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  #14 (permalink)
 forgiven 
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What is the difference between trading and investing ? When does investing become trading ? Does any one what to take a shot at that ?

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  #15 (permalink)
Kefkas Laugh
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forgiven View Post
What is the difference between trading and investing ? When does investing become trading ? Does any one what to take a shot at that ?

I think people will just argue about timeframe but in the end...a long position is a long position. Shorting is something that IMO is unique to the label of "trading" as Investing makes me think of putting money into something you want to increase in value. But that can also be argued either way...if you give money to a long/short fund you would certainly consider that an investment.

Even Buffett, the embodiment of "investor" sells a stock when the fundamentals or competitive landscape changes...sounds like a position "trader" to me.

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 AllSeeker 
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forgiven View Post
What is the difference between trading and investing ? When does investing become trading ? Does any one what to take a shot at that ?

Interesting one, first thing came to mind was it would be easier to try and understand this using some other market like "property".

Investing in property would be akin to expecting intrinsic value appreciation after a certain time (it could be months/years/decades). Here always fundamental study is your base. And you are not just expecting profit on sell but possible property development like building an apartment building for renting.

Trading a property would be cashing in on speculative value difference between two parties. Here funny thing is both could claim that their decision is based on "fundamental" but in their assessment they have reached a different intrinsic value number at the same time, so they are willing to trade.

Timeframe talk seems to be integral part of it tbh. And of course, if any major news in property market, both the above parties irrespective of the original intention behind purchase/sell will try to safeguard themselves or capitalize to make more profits.

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