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Your first trade is a nice winner. Do you keep on trading?
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Your first trade is a nice winner. Do you keep on trading?

  #1 (permalink)
Student Of The Markets
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Your first trade is a nice winner. Do you keep on trading?

Currently, I trade two contracts and have targets set at 3 ticks and 6 ticks. I can't even count the days that I have had my first trade of the day be a winner which is a 1 point profit per contract and my daily objective is 2 points per contract. So I have to make another winning trade. Next trade a loser, so I give some of my profits back , third trade another loser. Now I'm in the hole or break even. Before I know it, either the hole is bigger or I go back and forth winner, loser and end up trading all day and either never recovered and have a profitable day or I just break even or close to it. Seems like a waste of time to me.

I have decided today that since I am well under leveraged that I am going to increase my contracts to 3 and set my targets to 3 ticks, 6 ticks and have the runner 3 points or more.

I'm just curious how many traders try to make a one and done day or do you try to make bigger profits? I know the more you trade the lower the odds are in your favor. So what do you do?


Cheers
Ryan

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  #2 (permalink)
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  #3 (permalink)
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Honest questions

Why are the odds less the more you trade?
If that is the case then by the end of the month, quarter, or year your odds will eventually be zero. True you will rack up more juice through commission, but that doesn't change the odds of the events happening(profit target) or not happening(stop out) for each single trade.

How can trading not be gambling if you are speaking of odds?
I'm not talking about gambling as an adjective, wreckless behavior.
I'm talking about gambling the verb, risking money to make money on an event you have no control over.

Only thing I can maybe suggest is drop the daily goal, so you are not taking trades just to meet a goal.

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You're kidding, right? I'm not quite sure where to begin, but in my opinion you're entire outlook on trading is flawed. " I know the more you trade the lower the odds are in your favor". This isn't Vegas; there is no house edge. If you actually believe that statement is true, you will never become a profitable trader. The better I'm trading, the bigger I'm trading, and the more I'm trading. If the markets are good and I'm trading well, I'm pressing, and trading as much as I can.
I would highly recommend that you hide your P&L, and not look at it till the end of the day. Trade the market and not your P&L. Don't set arbitrary targets, take what the markets give you, while always limiting your losses. Let the price action tell you when to get out, not some arbitrary target. I don't understand what it is that you are doing, but it's not trading.

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  #5 (permalink)
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NoJob View Post
Honest questions

Why are the odds less the more you trade?
If that is the case then by the end of the month, quarter, or year your odds will eventually be zero. True you will rack up more juice through commission, but that doesn't change the odds of the events happening(profit target) or not happening(stop out) for each single trade.

NoJob,

Thank you for the feedback, but you didn't reply on what you do or have done.

Trading from my understanding from the books I have read and seen in the short year I have been trading is all odds and probabilities. You make 20 trades you could win all 20 or you could lose all 20. That is not likely, but it could happen. So out of the 20 trades you take you will have losers and winners. And every 20 trades you take the random outcome will be different.




Quoting 
How can trading not be gambling if you are speaking of odds?
I'm not talking about gambling as an adjective, wreckless behavior.
I'm talking about gambling the verb, risking money to make money on an event you have no control over.

Only thing I can maybe suggest is drop the daily goal, so you are not taking trades just to meet a goal.

Why is trading any different than any other business entity? It's not, a sales and marketing company spends $100's of thousands on marketing and advertising to prospect for customers right? Well, lets say that you have 100 customers the odds are that you're not going to sell all of them. You pitch or propose your product or service, but only 50% to 75% are buyers, out of that number you only sell to 20% to 30% the rest buy from your competitors. It's all a numbers game, its how well you play the game. Trading is a business just like any other business entity and if it's not treated as such you will fail.

Cheers
Ryan


Last edited by itrade2win; October 9th, 2010 at 02:01 PM.
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  #6 (permalink)
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Definitely worth thinking about as it does happen every now and again, though not as frequently as I may wish

I will sometimes leave early if I feel satisfied with the trades I have made (and the fine weather is calling me out) but as a general rule, I will sit and take each high probability trade as it comes without looking at my P&L as it almost always blurs my vision in some way or another. With that, I don't have a daily profit target in mind and just look at it towards the end of the day. Probably worth adding as this is a psychology thread, when I have profitable trades, I can refrain from looking at my P&L but if I have a string of misread direction trades, i.e. stopped out losers, I will look at it if those losers have made my mind unbalanced and then, it often goes downhill from there when the much needed objectivity takes a running leap off a very high bridge.
My plan is to not look at the P&L but when it does in these cases, I will usually get myself to step away from the computer and chill, coming back with a more calm, quiet and attentive mind ready to trade.

Good weekend to all!!

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  #7 (permalink)
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While trading is very mathematical, we are not computers. There is a psychological component.

Like most things in trading, there is not a black/white answer. There is not a "this is how you trade" answer. You need to set yourself up for success, but you need to also play to your own strengths and weaknesses.

Personally, I have a daily goal that I trade to. I am comfortable trading to this goal and stopping. If I don't trade for a day or two, then I press a bit as I have weekly and monthly goals as well. I fine having a goal helps me mentally.

One aspect: you can be done in one or two trades and go live life, having traded just 1 hour. Another aspect: you can stay and trade the rest of the day, and make ten times as much. You can also lose what you made originally and end with a loss.

The bottom line is your method should dictate how many trading opportunities you have each day. I have a dozen or so each day, I probably take less than half on average. I am fine with this. It is part of my routine. You have to find your own routine, just make sure that it makes sense. Don't stop trading mid-day for no good reason. On a similar note, I ignore those who say don't trade during lunch, or don't trade overnight, etc. I trade when price action and my method tell me to trade. Price doesn't care about what time it is, and I am not trading such huge volume that I need RTH liquidity to fill my orders.

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  #8 (permalink)
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itrade2win View Post
my first trade of the day be a winner which is a 1 point profit per contract and my daily objective is 2 points per contract.

Maybe your daily objectives (2 points) you have might be out of sync with your method.
Did you back test your method to give 2 points?
If your first trade of the day gives you a point, why not capitalize on more contracts then as you suggested and then quit.
Why continue trading? Because the markets are open?

Here is a hypothetical routine that might work for you:
1) First trade is a winner--quit.
2) First trade is a loser--Try to recover: if you recover the loss-quit, if you lose again-quit.

This will save you a ton on commissions that add up fast, and might help you stay out of the "I have to make my money back". Remember, making money is this business is a by-product of 90% risk management, and 10% entry, IMHO.
Good Luck! and I mean it sincerely because it is a tough game.

PM with any questions about optimusfutures (800) 771-6748 (561) 367 8686. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES TRADING.
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  #9 (permalink)
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tigertrader View Post
You're kidding, right? I'm not quite sure where to begin, but in my opinion you're entire outlook on trading is flawed. " I know the more you trade the lower the odds are in your favor". This isn't Vegas; there is no house edge. If you actually believe that statement is true, you will never become a profitable trader. The better I'm trading, the bigger I'm trading, and the more I'm trading. If the markets are good and I'm trading well, I'm pressing, and trading as much as I can.
I would highly recommend that you hide your P&L, and not look at it till the end of the day. Trade the market and not your P&L. Don't set arbitrary targets, take what the markets give you, while always limiting your losses. Let the price action tell you when to get out, not some arbitrary target.

Really??? So you're so good that you can determine the outcome of each and every trade you make huh? Every trade you make has a random outcome you won't win them all, but you could.And you could lose them all. You have no idea what the market is going to do once you enter a trade. So if your week goes like this $ 1000, $1500 -$1250, $1000 and Friday down -$1000 ending the week up $1250 when you could have made $500 a day and end the week up $2000. It's a no brainer.

I don't even have my P&L displayed on my Dom. I don't even think about the money, I trade for points




Quoting 
I don't understand what it is that you are doing, but it's not trading.

How can you make such a statement such as this when you have no idea on my method of trading? I posted this thread for insight and feedback, not to be ridiculed and insulted. If you can't provide positive feedback then don't reply.

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  #10 (permalink)
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I apologize for not answering.

I really don't give a flip about losing trades or winning trades. I'm so "lost in the game" that if I miss a few shots or make a few I'm not thinking about it. I'm working playing defense, rebounding, etc.. I'm in the game. I stopped out 1st trade this morning, didn't think nothing of it and came back with 8 winners. Didn't think anything of those winners either, because my head was still in the game, watching the order the flow pouncing on it where I see fit.

This is the best way I can put it and I can only speak for myself.

I guess it's a mind state thing. I don't try to rationalize\quantify what I do as a business and compare it to any other business. (doesn't mean I don't take it seriously) I'm at peace with "betting", I'm looking to "bet", I accept the risk that goes with it and embrace the "gambling" aspect of it. Embracing the gambling aspect of it, allows me to cope with the losses and the wins. Not to get to high or to low.
Again that is what works for me.
YMMV

cheers

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