Does the market know your positions? - futures io
futures io



Does the market know your positions?


Discussion in Psychology and Money Management

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one Arch with 8 posts (26 thanks)
    2. looks_two SMCJB with 7 posts (17 thanks)
    3. looks_3 trend train with 5 posts (4 thanks)
    4. looks_4 brmicha2000 with 4 posts (5 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one bobwest with 11 thanks per post
    2. looks_two Silver Dragon with 9 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 HiLatencyTRDR HLT with 4.8 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 Arch with 3.3 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 3,948 views
    2. thumb_up 184 thanks given
    3. group 297 followers
    1. forum 58 posts
    2. attach_file 11 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 150,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

Does the market know your positions?

(login for full post details)
  #31 (permalink)
 anubis 
Montevideo Uruguay
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart / Jigsaw
Trading: futures
 
Posts: 56 since Jul 2020
Thanks: 18 given, 37 received

They know because you are too predictable.

Reply With Quote

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on futures io?
Paid coding for NT7 to NT8 Custom Plot() conversion
NinjaTrader
Effect of Bitcoin price on Altcoins
Crypto Futures
Realtest vs Amibroker
Platforms and Indicators
SafeDayTradingorg
Trading Reviews and Vendors
TradingView like VOLUME indi for Ninja8 ?!?!
NinjaTrader
 
 
(login for full post details)
  #32 (permalink)
SunTrader
Boca Raton, FL
 
 
Posts: 221 since Nov 2018
Thanks: 68 given, 160 received

Each and everyone of us (right up to the mighty Goldman Sachs) ... trade against ourselves.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to SunTrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #33 (permalink)
OccamsRazorTrader
Fort Myers Florida/USA
 
 
Posts: 59 since May 2020
Thanks: 28 given, 59 received



anubis View Post
They know because you are too predictable.

I knew you were going to post that ...............

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to OccamsRazorTrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #34 (permalink)
 natan1967 
Ramat Gan
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninja
Trading: Emini ES
 
Posts: 17 since Jun 2020
Thanks: 0 given, 21 received


blackgrey45 View Post
Do you think the market knows your positions and actively trades against you? Or does the market not care about you?

There is no one out there. The market dosent care about you and dosent know you are even there.

Its us reflecting our fear on the chart.

If you are an average trader your size is nothing.

Just trade your setups, nobody cares

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to natan1967 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #35 (permalink)
pstrusi
Lalin Pontevedra Spain
 
 
Posts: 19 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 9 given, 9 received


blackgrey45 View Post
Do you think the market knows your positions and actively trades against you? Or does the market not care about you?

The market doesn't know anyone, markets are always breaking their own patterns so there will be a coincidental clash with your position inevitably. You'll have a better chance if you're able to call a pattern change before it's done, at least a 60%-70% of the movement. Not an easy task but it's the path. If you stick to a fixed model for a long time, eventually you'll go through often rough times.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #36 (permalink)
 OMWF 
Australia
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Tradingview, Amibroker
Trading: ASX
 
Posts: 58 since Apr 2018
Thanks: 56 given, 29 received

I assume that instos and funds compete against each other (rather than collude against retail traders). If they didn't compete, then the swings would be enormous, and they're not. So I think we can assume competition will always be part of the market which means there will always be a place for retail traders to make a quid. We just have to figure out what the 'Composite Man' is doing, and move with him.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #37 (permalink)
 DanDaMan 
QC/Canada
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart, NinjaTrader
Trading: ES
 
DanDaMan's Avatar
 
Posts: 82 since May 2020
Thanks: 138 given, 171 received

The market does not know where 'your' position is. Exceptions may be had for very large traders that hold longer term positions- but think in the thousands of lots- not hundreds. This exception is pretty much for the largest traders that hold/pin the market in certain price ranges. Competing firms may attempt to squeeze them.

It knows where the liquidity lays, the depth of liquidity at each level (both these are assuming everything remains status quo and orders at a level are firm and not meandering or spoofed).
It knows historical interest at every tested price, and it knows- based on the most common time frames- where a significant amount of liquidity may trigger due to a massing of safety stops.
It also knows, at untested prices- a probability of support or resistance- given common widely used technical analysis techniques.

So if you trade with a heard mentality that does not deviate from what almost everyone else is doing, then yes- it might seem like the market knows where your position might be... But technically- that's just because you are not unique to what the masses are doing. Everyone (hopefully) is looking at the same information.

Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to DanDaMan for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #38 (permalink)
JPStructure
Paris, France
 
 
Posts: 25 since Jul 2021
Thanks: 1 given, 6 received

I always thought that the market was chasing my stop levels. To avoid that I'm trading spreads between Nasdaq / Russell, I feel more protected and only their difference are important for me!

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to JPStructure for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #39 (permalink)
brmicha2000
Denver, CO
 
 
Posts: 12 since Aug 2021
Thanks: 0 given, 15 received


blackgrey45 View Post
Do you think the market knows your positions and actively trades against you? Or does the market not care about you?

Let's say that the institutions want to do a large sell order. Let's say that you are correct, and you also want to sell. You put your stop loss in an expected area, one that everyone expects, one that everyone uses, under some well known commonly traded system. The institutional traders think there is likely a lot of stop loss orders around those expected levels. The stop loss orders are buy orders. The institutions are selling so they need buy orders in order to fill the other side of their trade. They need lots of liquidity in order to fill their positions. Maybe somehow, they are able to manipulate price a little into that area, and set off the stop losses so that their sell order can be filled. That's the idea behind stop loss hunting. However, thinking that they are after some small time trader's stop loss is ridiculous. They have no idea about you, what you do, nor do they care. You could make 10 million dollars in one day, and they still wouldn't have any clue who you are. You could then cash out your 10 million and put it in assets that can't be tracked like rare gold coins, and put them in a safe deposit box. If you invest a billion in known stocks, that can be easily tracked, and you will end up in the Forbes 500 automatically, and have a bunch of idiots calling your house. I feel that most people who want to trade use the idea of stop loss hunting as an excuse, and they begin to believe that because of it, they can never be successful trading. That creates a self fulfilling prophecy, and they get what they believe. Traders can be successful in whatever they want to trade regardless of whatever the institutions are doing. The high speed algorithms also should have no impact on your trading, if you start to trade a strategy that works. Most likely, it will be a strategy that you created and tested, through practice and experience. Most likely, it will happen after many years of hard work and not giving up.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to brmicha2000 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #40 (permalink)
 Sant 
United States + World
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB TWS
Broker: IB
Trading: Bonds, Stocks, Futures, Options
 
Posts: 20 since Nov 2018
Thanks: 178 given, 23 received



SunTrader View Post
Each and everyone of us (right up to the mighty Goldman Sachs) ... trade against ourselves.

I think of trading as Me against God... and right now...

It is Nip and Tuck... and... It could go either way...

Reply With Quote


futures io Trading Community Psychology and Money Management > Does the market know your positions?


Last Updated on September 21, 2022


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing
     



Copyright © 2022 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada), info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts