NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





Probability (size) calculator


Discussion in Psychology and Money Management

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one kremat0r with 3 posts (1 thanks)
    2. looks_two chipwitch with 2 posts (2 thanks)
    3. looks_3 ondafringe with 1 posts (1 thanks)
    4. looks_4 hibanzai with 1 posts (0 thanks)
    1. trending_up 1,345 views
    2. thumb_up 4 thanks given
    3. group 5 followers
    1. forum 6 posts
    2. attach_file 0 attachments




 
Search this Thread

Probability (size) calculator

  #1 (permalink)
 kremat0r 
Prague, Czechia
 
Experience: Intermediate
Posts: 69 since Jan 2019
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 58

Hello forum,

I'm looking for a calculator for position size based on probability of success on specific strategy.

I need to know what's the probability of let's say 10 losses in raw if strategy have 40% success rate.

Does someone knows that kind of tool?

Or maybe excel formula ?

Thanks

Started this thread Reply With Quote

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
MC PL editor upgrade
MultiCharts
What broker to use for trading palladium futures
Commodities
Pivot Indicator like the old SwingTemp by Big Mike
NinjaTrader
REcommedations for programming help
Sierra Chart
ZombieSqueeze
Platforms and Indicators
 
  #2 (permalink)
 
chipwitch's Avatar
 chipwitch 
Nashville, TN
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: NinjaTrader, Continuum Data
Trading: MES for now... baby steps
Posts: 322 since Feb 2022
Thanks Given: 230
Thanks Received: 631


kremat0r View Post
Hello forum,

I'm looking for a calculator for position size based on probability of success on specific strategy.

I need to know what's the probability of let's say 10 losses in raw if strategy have 40% success rate.

Does someone knows that kind of tool?

Or maybe excel formula ?

Thanks

Not exactly what you're asking for, but risk of ruin helps you determine what your position size should be.
https://2ndskiesforex.com/risk-of-ruin-calculator/

With that, you plug in the position size to determine risk of ruin rather than it telling you your position size. There's probably a risk of ruin calculator somewhere that will do that.

This link discusses the different formulae for calculating risk of ruin. You could use that in excel. https://tradingtact.com/risk-of-ruin/

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #3 (permalink)
 kremat0r 
Prague, Czechia
 
Experience: Intermediate
Posts: 69 since Jan 2019
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 58


Thank you for you help

It wont help me, because Im developing a strategy without fixed profit in tick.
Target is hit in 40% trades, RR seems to be something around RR 1/2.2
In half year back test longest loosing streak was 6 times in row.

I just want to know probability to set proper size.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
  #4 (permalink)
 
chipwitch's Avatar
 chipwitch 
Nashville, TN
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: NinjaTrader, Continuum Data
Trading: MES for now... baby steps
Posts: 322 since Feb 2022
Thanks Given: 230
Thanks Received: 631


kremat0r View Post
Thank you for you help

It wont help me, because Im developing a strategy without fixed profit in tick.
Target is hit in 40% trades, RR seems to be something around RR 1/2.2
In half year back test longest loosing streak was 6 times in row.

I just want to know probability to set proper size.

Oh! I misunderstood! That will depend on the number of trades you do. The more trades you do, the higher the probability of getting 10 losers in a row. Here's a pretty good link I think you're looking for: https://www.winningedgeinvestments.com/posts/the-mathematics-runs-of-outs-or-losing-streaks

Reply With Quote
  #5 (permalink)
ondafringe
Albuquerque, NM, USA
 
Posts: 124 since Jul 2012
Thanks Given: 87
Thanks Received: 117


kremat0r View Post
Thank you for you help

It wont help me, because Im developing a strategy without fixed profit in tick.
Target is hit in 40% trades, RR seems to be something around RR 1/2.2
In half year back test longest loosing streak was 6 times in row.

I just want to know probability to set proper size.


I haven't used this, but had it bookmarked:

https://www.daytradinglife.com/trading-spreadsheets/losing-streak-probability-calculator/

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #6 (permalink)
 kremat0r 
Prague, Czechia
 
Experience: Intermediate
Posts: 69 since Jan 2019
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 58



This looks good, I need to play with it.

Thanks!

Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #7 (permalink)
hibanzai
MONTREAL CANADA
 
Posts: 6 since Aug 2022
Thanks Given: 0
Thanks Received: 1

If you want to think about risk in general terms rather than a formula or excel sheet, some Nassim Nicholas Taleb books are worth reading. Provides for a compelling way of seeing risk in not just financial markets but in general.

Reply With Quote




Last Updated on October 5, 2022


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts