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Traders with 5-10 years of experience but still not profitable


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Traders with 5-10 years of experience but still not profitable

  #311 (permalink)
 
Tripken's Avatar
 Tripken 
Knoxville, TN/USA
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: TradeStation
Broker: TradeStation
Trading: ES
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Minutes
Posts: 624 since Feb 2010
Thanks Given: 1,583
Thanks Received: 1,368


toucan94506bm View Post
Hi blackgrey… I haven’t traded Es in a while, but I was thinking about your answers and have the following comments.

a risk to reward of 2:1 means that you are risking $2 loss to gain a $1 profit. In general, you need to have a very high win rate to be profitable. I haven’t talked to anyone that is profitable using this process.

Strategy 1… risking 4 ticks versus profit of 40 ticks means that you have to stay in the trade much longer and profitability will depend on how good your entries are, how good you are at managing your trades as well as how much you stick to the initial stoploss. the question that i would ask is how many trends run 40 or more ticks.

Strategy 2… see my first comment

Strategy 3… not using an initial stoploss is a real bummer for your bottom line. Most traders that I have talked to busted their accounts when not using stoploss.

You have only outlined your risk/reward and its unclear how you manage a trade when it’s in a profit. And, you haven’t described what causes you to enter a trade.

Have you looked at the best time of day for you to trade. I trade metals, natty and crude and the best time for me to trade is 8am est to 11am est. I know a trader that trades ES the first hour and the last hour of the day. The rest of the day is too risky for him.

Watch out for economic reports. you need to be aware when each of them come out, so you don't get screwed by the price action from the report. I don’t trade the actual economic news, but I trade a few minutes after the news is out when i see there is good price action.

Have you looked at where you should enter (ie a setup forming). I look for pullbacks in a trend, breaks of a narrow range or a clear fast moving trend.

After you see a setup forming, what would tell you to enter a trade. For example when I see a setup form, I enter after price moves 2 ticks in the direction that I want.

Last comment is you do this for entertainment and not business. Most traders that I have talked to that take a similar approach to you have ended up busting their account. i trade like it is my business and look for consistent profits, not big wins.

Hope some of this helps

toucan

Loving all the posts and opinions, truly.

But had to pipe up and say it can and does work(2:1), going to post a chart using an indicator that is real time, not delayed. I use a 3-4 point stop to get 2, and there can be a "runner" involved. I spent years trying Mack's PAT system and to this day still use many of it's principles. I could never get past the fact that after (almost) every 1 point scalp PA reversed and took out the runner. So now I just go for 2 every time and I no longer trade the 2k charts. I've upped it to the 4k and it is really much cleaner, call it noise call it whatever but the 2nd entries, the failures are all much clearer. I guess my point is one persons system is just that - their system!

Would I like to trade with a 1:3 or 1:5 RR sure, but that's not me. In all honesty sometimes I just take the point and move on, usually I would have gotten the 2pts. but I KNOW ME, an me doesn't sit well through all the back and forth the ES serves up.

Hope this helps someone. I took in a ton of info doing this and I believe in most peoples wanting to help. I think it all added up over time, but it was no 1 thing. Just because someone says the math will never work, or in 5 years your edge will be dead, etc. Don't buy in, trusting your gut is real!

2 charts one from today and one from 9 yrs ago. Changed some things over the years,but the basics are the same.


2014-07-09_2228


2023-07-06_21-36-08

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Psychology and Money Management
 
  #312 (permalink)
toucan94506bm
danville ca usa
 
Posts: 73 since Aug 2015
Thanks Given: 48
Thanks Received: 75


Tripken View Post
Loving all the posts and opinions, truly.

But had to pipe up and say it can and does work(2:1), going to post a chart using an indicator that is real time, not delayed. I use a 3-4 point stop to get 2, and there can be a "runner" involved. I spent years trying Mack's PAT system and to this day still use many of it's principles. I could never get past the fact that after (almost) every 1 point scalp PA reversed and took out the runner. So now I just go for 2 every time and I no longer trade the 2k charts. I've upped it to the 4k and it is really much cleaner, call it noise call it whatever but the 2nd entries, the failures are all much clearer. I guess my point is one persons system is just that - their system!

Would I like to trade with a 1:3 or 1:5 RR sure, but that's not me. In all honesty sometimes I just take the point and move on, usually I would have gotten the 2pts. but I KNOW ME, an me doesn't sit well through all the back and forth the ES serves up.

Hope this helps someone. I took in a ton of info doing this and I believe in most peoples wanting to help. I think it all added up over time, but it was no 1 thing. Just because someone says the math will never work, or in 5 years your edge will be dead, etc. Don't buy in, trusting your gut is real!

2 charts one from today and one from 9 yrs ago. Changed some things over the years,but the basics are the same.


2014-07-09_2228


2023-07-06_21-36-08


Tripken… its nice to find someone who can make that strategy work. I can see from your charts it would be perfect for trend trading.

I see that you use tradestation for charting and broker. Nice… I also use tradestation for charting, broker and automation.

I agree with your comment: each persons system is their own system. They developed it and understand how to use it. What I have done over the years is discuss systems with others to get better insights into trading and systems. Sometimes I even get an idea from discussions that I can use in my own system.

Cheers
Toucan

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  #313 (permalink)
 peteM 
St.Neots UK / Marbella Spain
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninja Trader
Broker: NT Brokerage
Trading: ES, 6E, 6B, CL, GC, ZB
Frequency: Daily
Duration: Hours
Posts: 35 since Sep 2014
Thanks Given: 15
Thanks Received: 27


Just found this thread, ......interesting question :-) But the question is more about, what it is, that even after many years, the question if there must be a time frame where within it is more likely to get profitable? No, it is not.

Ok, may be my experience would give somebody a hint, what it is really about. Who I am. Peter, 55yrs. sorry not 5-10 yrs, but trading since more then 20yrs. can´t exactly remember when I started. I am somebody with huge experience but never got it to become professional. Came quite close with my developed system for a 10m hedgefund approach in 2016, because I lived in Germany and there you get no chance for an allowance until you have not worked in a Investmentbank. I applied for a licence in UK and this was a solution. This was 2016 .....and the Brexit brought everything into the trash can. I do remember on an Euro trade then, I made a huge amount this night, because my bet was a Brexit, and the whole market opinion stands more on the other side. But any plans were crap then, uncertainty for many years.

I went through the hell of trading many years before, more exactly from heaven to hell, and always and again, including many huge successes, made 740% in 6 months, made 2063% in 12 months. And in the same way, losses and catastrophies, yes I have wiped out many accounts.

So, what it is about? ......after all these years!

It is NOT, and NOT at all about technic, about knowledge, about money management, about the ultimate system, about teaching, about training, about everything, everybody is talking. Even in automated trading systems, the point of weakness is always "you". Why there are so many stories out there from people who didn´t care about any of the stuff and made a fortune despite?

Crucial is just, you may have heard about it, "mastering greed and fear", all of you have heard about it, but the curiosity is, that most people don´t know what it das mean, really mean. Everything in live what has influence to your emotions, will affect it. And there was a lot, from love to divorce, from children and family, from wealth to poverty and back.

To become profitable, for a time frame, for some or many years, for just some days......it is ONLY ....YOU!

Do I know my personal weaknesses? Yes I do, it is not at all important for you, because my are and will never be comparable to yours, but i will tell you.
I am the perfect trader, as long as the amounts are not too high, I do know my personal grade of taking risk and staying cool. And i am impatient, i was never interested in some steady and small income, even I know it is wrong, of course. It is getting better when I got older. If the amounts are getting bigger, I align or assign the "next step" to a possible complete change of my life, and that always, was the beginning, I begun to fail. In one week everything is logic and easy, and the next is that nothing works anymore and it is hard to get the turnaround unless your account is gone. That´s my challenge I am still workin on.

You can´t copy anything, it is just a try on your personal way. These many guys, who tell you, copy me, do what I do, pay me for what I have reached.....forget it. That will not lead to a (sustainable) success. It may work for a couple of time, but the point it crashes will come. Is it worth to do, worth to try, YES in any case, you will learn and thats good. First of all you will learn a lot about yourself, on any try. So always keep on trying.

I am still tryin and be happy with it. :-) Is it possible to give you and advice,......NO! You have to find out for yourself, if you understand this, you are on the right way.

Regards to all of you, stay strong :-)

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  #314 (permalink)
 
HumbleTrader's Avatar
 HumbleTrader 
Vancouver Canada
Legendary , Always learning
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor RT
Broker: IB & IQ DTN
Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,742 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,438
Thanks Received: 3,012

Let me post my results first and then my brief story.




I'm in my late 40s and have a medical background with limited IT skills. I have been trading (for fun, mostly) for about 10 years now. After 2008 GFC, I became interested in economics first and then stocks dabbling and finally futures trading around 2012.

Though I don't have any data of my trading performance for the 1st 5 years, you will have no problems in believing me that I was a losing trader . I love tradervue and above is the result for the last 5 years.

My biggest strength is 'prudence'. I never lost more than 15k per year. Mind you, this is before the Micro contracts and quite easy to be runied by Eminis. I know that it's the tuition I pay to become a trader and hence didn't expect to be profitable quick.However, I did start a journal here in 2014 'My plan to be profitable in 365 days'. How optimistic of me

My annual journey is fairly typical, every year. I will just prod along ok and go up by 5k to 10k during the first few months and then 1 bad day, usually a short trade backfiring. Then I would hope for a turnaround instead of cutting my losses which would end up in a monster loss of 5 to 10k loss. Then rinse and repeat. Probably familiar to lot of traders out there. 2019 was the watershed moment. I became a breakeven trader. Hurray.

Then came the pandemic and all the free time to ponder and research. My trading approach changed to 'probabilistic thinking' and my trading decisions became statistics based instead of 'I think/I know'. I decided to use 'End of Day' orders so that I MUST be flat overnight. This changed everything. Suddenly I'm not responsible for the outcomes of my trades. It's the stats. When it worked, it's the stats. When it failed, it's the stats. Responsibility and stress levels went down. Initially, I kept my size small while experimenting Luckily I have Micros during this time but also used ETF SPY/DIA just to keep the size small. As my confidence in my system increased, I started slowly pushing it up, as you can tell from the 2nd attachement above. It's still just 1/10th of my desired size though i.e I want to trade Eminis but currently experimenting with MES.

5k profit per year in 2022 is not very exciting, I know. But to do that with very little drawdown, minimal risk and consistency is something I'm proud of. The next stage of my trading career is 'sizing up'.

I'm in NO rush though. I have 'possibly' 30+years of life ahead of me, 'probably' 20 + years and 'highly likely' 10+ years. See, that's probabilistic thinking. I don't have any pressure to succeed quick. Thanks to Mr Powell, my passive income from 5% interest has been feeding my family well. Though it may sound arrogant, I think it's important because I'm NOT a scared trader. Hence, I am more likely to succeed. Good luck.

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  #315 (permalink)
 
deaddog's Avatar
 deaddog 
Prince George BC Canada
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: National Bank Direct
Broker: NBD/BMO/Questrade
Trading: Stocks
Frequency: Every few days
Duration: Weeks
Posts: 1,307 since May 2013
Thanks Given: 185
Thanks Received: 4,076


HumbleTrader View Post
5k profit per year in 2022 is not very exciting, I know. But to do that with very little drawdown, minimal risk and consistency is something I'm proud of. The next stage of my trading career is 'sizing up'.

It depends on the overall account size. 5K on a 100K account isn't that exiting but 5k on a 10k acount is excellent.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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  #316 (permalink)
 SoonPeso7 
 
Posts: 257 since Jul 2014

Screenshot 2023-10-12 at 07.33.24
Good place to go long if not in, or to add on. Drawing a line across the two top points, duplicating and putting at low point between will get one real close where the market will tune. The upper left chart grants idea where the wave will end. The red line there is drawn from the beginning of wave A, and end of wave B giving resistance to turn the market.

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Last Updated on October 12, 2023


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