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Traders with 5-10 years of experience but still not profitable


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Traders with 5-10 years of experience but still not profitable

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  #31 (permalink)
 chipwitch 
Nashville, TN
 
Experience: Beginner
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Trading: MES for now... baby steps
 
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bavan666 View Post
I actually had a question, if using "Scrying" can help you look into the future, you should have a 100% win rate on your trades, right? what's stopping you from becoming a multi-billionaire then?

May I respectfully suggest not being so skeptical? While I have no firsthand knowledge of scrying, I am pretty sure it is the most plausible explanation for the success of Bezos and Musk j/k

An entertaining thread, if nothing else

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  #32 (permalink)
 1boomer 
Brisbane , Queensland
 
 
Posts: 10 since Mar 2022

Have you tried a slower timeframe ?
For example let's say you've been trying on a 1 minute chart , without success , try a 5 minute chart , you will have more time.
Also try something much simpler , maybe 1 price action setup , and trade that only.

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  #33 (permalink)
goodoboy
Houston
 
 
Posts: 284 since Dec 2016
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bavan666 View Post
I have seen many posts of guys who have dedicated 5-10+ years of their lives trading and still are not profitable despite all their efforts.
I guess some would even agree that had they taken some other path towards success they would be in a much better state in life.

What I've heard from other traders is that the '95% of traders' who are not profitable don't have the required technical knowledge, don't have any proper money management rules, and let their emotions get in the way.

I'd say traders who have many years of experience aren't lacking in the knowledge department, would have learned the importance of money management as well after all this time, and after trading for so many years, they probably would have become desensitized to the thrill/fear of making/losing money.

So why aren't these people profitable then? What are they missing? What else is required aside from market knowledge, money management, and emotional discipline?

Hello bavan666,

Of course it takes +10 years because a trader has nothing they can trust besides themselves to show them how to make money.

And those that are making money do not teach those who is not making money.

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  #34 (permalink)
goodoboy
Houston
 
 
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SomePsychoDude View Post
WTF 10 years?. Just a waste of time and money.
IMO in one year, you need to be good to go (profitable).

Hello SomePsychoDude,

Please share the plan for a trader to be profitable in 1 year.

Thank you

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  #35 (permalink)
goodoboy
Houston
 
 
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SomePsychoDude View Post
1. motivation
1. work to the blood
2. don't change the method you are trading with. Just pick a random indicator /price action aka pinbar/pattern and stick with that. (specialize in one thing)
3. try different markets and timeframes.
4. risk management.
+ with the info available nowadays even 1 year is too much (that's for stubborn ones=), the learning curve is very short.

In BigMike's journal/this forum/internet is all that you need.

Hello SomePsychoDude,

Thank you so much SomePsychoDude,

I definitely agree with you on 2 and 3. And this is where I am at now.

I am stuck between 3 minutes bars and 24 Range bars when I trade the futures markets manually. I know the style of trading I will do. I know my risk and reward and I know myself and I know exactly what I am looking for and what I want to do.

Just can not make decision between trading with 3 minutes bars and 24 Range bars.

Once I pick one. I swear, I am NOT changing nothing else ever.

May I please have your suggestion for this?

Thanks

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  #36 (permalink)
 chipwitch 
Nashville, TN
 
Experience: Beginner
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goodoboy View Post
Just can not make decision between trading with 3 minutes bars and 24 Range bars.

Once I pick one. I swear, I am NOT changing nothing else ever.

No one can pick the chart for you. Only *you* can decide which one (or ones) you need to use with *YOUR* strategy. You do that by paper trading or trading very small positions that won't hurt your wallet any more than you can afford to lose, until you have collected enough data to make that decision. Just pick the one that performs best. Have you backtested your strategy? Have you forward tested it?

Happy trading

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  #37 (permalink)
 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
 
Posts: 3,310 since Jul 2012
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chipwitch View Post
No one can pick the chart for you. Only *you* can decide which one (or ones) you need to use with *YOUR* strategy. You do that by paper trading or trading very small positions that won't hurt your wallet any more than you can afford to lose, until you have collected enough data to make that decision. Just pick the one that performs best. Have you backtested your strategy? Have you forward tested it?

Happy trading


Agreed. Let the testing pick the bar size and strategy for you. Otherwise, you risk forcing your views on the market, and that almost never works.

Example: I'd love all my algos to be intraday - no overnight or weekend positions.

But guess what? The market does not care what I like!!!

So, less than 10% of my algos are intraday...

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  #38 (permalink)
xsamanthax
New York City, USA
 
 
Posts: 23 since Mar 2022
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SomePsychoDude View Post
I would definitely trade on the bigger timeframes. The most important one is daily, and then you bring it down to the minute and apply your strategy within these timeframes and markets.
IMO any instrument has its niche.
1. SPX500ETF-retirement.
2. Portfolio with unleveraged Stocks+Crypto - daily hands down.
3. Quick leverage opportunity trading in crypto/stocks (up to a month of holding).
4. Futures as main money farming (intraday trading).
5. Forex when the volatility is present (opportunity trading).
6. VIX options when the world comes to its end.
7. Binary options (low volatility range market)
8. Using betting exchanges/dealers on skewed events.

You tweak your strategy for any different market and you are good to go=).

At least that's what trading looks like for me. But, if you're ok to trade the only single instrument like ES on 3min timeframe that's ok too. You'll make a fortune in both cases.

You just need to "dig the ground with the nose".


Do you mind if I ask what are realistic returns? What kind of cash are you pulling in? I don't want to become some loser that spends 10 years of his life in his Mom's basement trying to figure this out, only to make a few thousand dollars a month. It's either world changing money or I'm going to do something else.

This entire trading thing is littered with so much false information I don't even know what to believe anymore. How are you supposed to learn this stuff if everything out there you have to be skeptical about? It doesn't help that everyone talks about 'risk management' and 'psychology', but from personal experience it isn't hard to set a R/R or a stop loss or worry about emotions. Either you can discipline yourself or you can't. I'd much rather have stellar ideas that generate returns and worry about the R/R and Risk Management as needed because right now I can set stops and be disciplined but I have no ideas on how to actually make a profit and predict where the market is likely to head.

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  #39 (permalink)
xsamanthax
New York City, USA
 
 
Posts: 23 since Mar 2022
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bavan666 View Post
Well as per my understanding, Risk/Reward Ratio is how much are you willing to lose in relation to how much you are looking to gain per trade, I've heard its good practice to have at least a 1:2 ratio, but I've mostly been setting the RRR according to whatever price action I see, but I still like to have a minimum of 1:1 ratio. If I see a long setup, I'll set the stop loss below any recent support and keep the target at the closest resistance (at least the first target is the closest resistance) and whatever RRR I get out of it, I take it (as long as it is more than 1:1)

Don't let this guy kid you. RRR is so little to the trading process it's almost laughable. Having a solid idea of where the market is headed is 90% of trading. The other 10% is setting proper risk parameters. You can enter a trade at a suboptimal time but still make money if you guessed the direction right and it's heading in your favor. Setting a perfect entry with a good stop loss and proper RRR will only get you so far if the market moves 4 ticks in your favor and then reverses for another 50.

The trading educators will sell you on BS like trading "psychology" and "risk management" and sell that as if it were the holy grail to profitability when what they should be doing is training you on how to actually predict market moves and how/when to trade. If you notice there are very little idea generation courses and it's all about the basic shit that a monkey could figure out.

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  #40 (permalink)
 chipwitch 
Nashville, TN
 
Experience: Beginner
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Trading: MES for now... baby steps
 
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xsamanthax View Post
The trading educators will sell you on BS like trading "psychology" and "risk management" and sell that as if it were the holy grail to profitability when what they should be doing is training you on how to actually predict market moves and how/when to trade. If you notice there are very little idea generation courses and it's all about the basic shit that a monkey could figure out.

If it were easy everyone would be doing it... then the market would adapt until it wasn't easy anymore. There's no shortcut, no holy grail and no substitute for just sitting and watching the price and the volume and whatever indicators "speak" to you. If you find that you can't sit in front of a computer screen and just watch the little bars get big and then get small, for months on end and still find it exciting, then you're going to have a tough time of it. All those gurus, if they were that good in predicting the direction of the market and making profit, they wouldn't be selling you books and courses or spending copious hours making videos.

Then there is the very real practice of well-known successful people doing interviews and saying there's no time like the present to buy Bitcoin. Then, while everyone frenzy buys bitcoin, that "expert" is secretly selling. Warren Buffet says, "If you're sitting at a poker table and you don't know who the sucker is, it's you!" Looking for someone to teach you to trade the market properly from a book or a video course is about as likely as someone teaching you brain surgery by the same method.

The market is just an auction. Nothing more. Nothing less. If you want to be a trader, imagine that you want to learn to trade cars by going to auction and buying them to sell for profit. If you have a love for cars, pick something else. I really have no innate love for the S&P 500, but the process of trading is the draw. So whatever hypothetical auction you use in the mental exercise I just suggested, pick something you have no particular affinity for. Now, no one can teach you the value of things. You learn by doing, making mistakes, making fewer mistakes and if you're lucky, occasionally picking up a useful tip here and there from someone willing to share their experience. Even the profiteering gurus can teach you a thing or two... occasionally.

If you're in a rush and don't want to put in the time at the auction I don't know what else to say. If you're in it primarily for the profit and not the process, then yeah.... there aren't any successful traders.

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