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Why are we always trading the wrong side?


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Why are we always trading the wrong side?

  #71 (permalink)
Always A Loser
Champaign, IL
 
Posts: 9 since Mar 2023
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Thanks Received: 5


Pariah Carey View Post
You probably need to stop trading. Like for good. Maybe do mutual funds if you want to be in the markets. You aren't a trader, you're a donator. You're just donating to others' accounts. Everything about your attitude and approach (starting with your screen name...c'mon, really?) shows you do not have what it takes to compete in this arena. And this is a competition. Professional traders are the apex predators of the markets. The equivalent of PGA tour golfers and pro football defensive backs. That is who you're going against.

Far be it for me to tell others how to live their lives or what to do with their money, but this isn't going to change unless you make some fundamental changes to your attitude, psychology and approach to trading. I don't know what else to tell you but I do wish you the best.

You are most likely right. FWIW, my results with paper trading have been largely similar to live trading. My chosen user name is just me facing reality. I don't like to be beaten by any challenge, but apparently I'm not intelligent enough to make this work.

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  #72 (permalink)
Always A Loser
Champaign, IL
 
Posts: 9 since Mar 2023
Thanks Given: 1
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I do invest in the markets in my workplace retirement account. Since 2020, my account value has dropped $150k despite continued contributions. One can hope that eventually the economy will recover, but it's starting to feel like I'm throwing money away there too.

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  #73 (permalink)
Always A Loser
Champaign, IL
 
Posts: 9 since Mar 2023
Thanks Given: 1
Thanks Received: 5


I should mention, the main strategy I had learned, from another trader who has been very successful with it, was to use the CCI indicator (with slightly modified inputs) to gauge when a stock was overbought or oversold (100 and -100 levels). He added in a 2.5 Bollinger band, looking for reversion to the mean, and the trigger to enter was a divergence from price in the CCI. That's all he did, and he's consistently highly profitable. Most of his trading is day trading on 1, 5, and 15 minutes time frames. He has some other rules, such as watching for a break above or below the first 15 minutes candle and being biased in that direction. Overall, it was a fairly basic strategy.

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  #74 (permalink)
 
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 mwf2220 
Abu Dhabi United Arab Emirates
 
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kevinkdog View Post
Did you ever consider that stop losses might be the reason for the losing months or years?

I see a lot of people feeling really good about having $50 stop losses, when all that is doing is slowly grinding down their account. They think smaller losses prevent big drawdowns. You can have no stop losses and avoid a lot of the stop loss volatility grind.

Not saying stop losses are good or bad for anyone is particular, but I definitely do not see them as being "mandatory."

I'm far from an expert - and I trade with stop losses - but with different strategies I've backtested lately, almost all of them are more profitable with the stop and reverse. It's uncanny.

@Always A Loser - the gentleman I'm quoting wrote a couple great articles about the stop loss thing - they're definitely worth a read:

https://kjtradingsystems.com/algo-trading-exits.html
https://kjtradingsystems.com/can-these-exits-beat-stop-and-reverse.html

Just please understand that in no way, shape, or form am I trying to suggest how you should trade. I guess it's just along the lines of what @Pariah Carey said - if you don't change the way you interact with the market, your results probably won't change either. Maybe this could be something to look into.

Good luck.

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  #75 (permalink)
 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
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mwf2220 View Post
I'm far from an expert - and I trade with stop losses - but with different strategies I've backtested lately, almost all of them are more profitable with the stop and reverse. It's uncanny.

@Always A Loser - the gentleman I'm quoting wrote a couple great articles about the stop loss thing - they're definitely worth a read:

https://kjtradingsystems.com/algo-trading-exits.html
https://kjtradingsystems.com/can-these-exits-beat-stop-and-reverse.html

Just please understand that in no way, shape, or form am I trying to suggest how you should trade. I guess it's just along the lines of what @Pariah Carey said - if you don't change the way you interact with the market, your results probably won't change either. Maybe this could be something to look into.

Good luck.

I heard that the "gentleman" who wrote the "great articles" also contributes to this forum - LOL!

Thanks for the kind words!

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  #76 (permalink)
Always A Loser
Champaign, IL
 
Posts: 9 since Mar 2023
Thanks Given: 1
Thanks Received: 5


mwf2220 View Post
I'm far from an expert - and I trade with stop losses - but with different strategies I've backtested lately, almost all of them are more profitable with the stop and reverse. It's uncanny.

@Always A Loser - the gentleman I'm quoting wrote a couple great articles about the stop loss thing - they're definitely worth a read:

https://kjtradingsystems.com/algo-trading-exits.html
https://kjtradingsystems.com/can-these-exits-beat-stop-and-reverse.html

Just please understand that in no way, shape, or form am I trying to suggest how you should trade. I guess it's just along the lines of what @Pariah Carey said - if you don't change the way you interact with the market, your results probably won't change either. Maybe this could be something to look into.

Good luck.

I appreciate all the responses I've gotten so far. I've read every one of them. I'm no way opposed to some "tough love". The main question I keep asking myself is, Why am I so completely inadequate? I have committed considerable time, education, and effort to this, and I seem to be getting worse as time goes on. I have observed some other traders, and without trying to be ridiculously arrogant these people do not seem to be as intelligent as I am outside of their trading activities - and yet their ability to succeed in the markets completely escapes me.

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  #77 (permalink)
 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
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Always A Loser View Post
I appreciate all the responses I've gotten so far. I've read every one of them. I'm no way opposed to some "tough love". The main question I keep asking myself is, Why am I so completely inadequate? I have committed considerable time, education, and effort to this, and I seem to be getting worse as time goes on. I have observed some other traders, and without trying to be ridiculously arrogant these people do not seem to be as intelligent as I am outside of their trading activities - and yet their ability to succeed in the markets completely escapes me.

Realize a couple of things:

"I have committed considerable ... education ... to this"

Most trading education is worthless, taught by people who do not even trade, or only trade sim. And realize the more it sounds like a sales pitch, the less likely the "education" is likely even good education.


"these people do not seem to be as intelligent as I am outside of their trading activities"
Unless you have seen outside verified results from these people, just assume they are not trading real money. I see a lot of people (educators and otherwise) claiming big profits. I suspect 90% of the statements are false.


Just as an example, in the past few years, 3 or 4 highly regarded trading educators have passed away. Turns out they did not trade at all! A tribute to one of them actually stated something like "Mr. XXXX was considered a genius in the trading field, even though he did not trade himself." (I actually know for a fact he almost had his electric turned off for non payment!)


Full DISCLOSURE: I sell trading education, too. I do actually trade though. Getting hammered today - short Silver, short US. UGH.

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  #78 (permalink)
Always A Loser
Champaign, IL
 
Posts: 9 since Mar 2023
Thanks Given: 1
Thanks Received: 5


kevinkdog View Post
Realize a couple of things:

"I have committed considerable ... education ... to this"

Most trading education is worthless, taught by people who do not even trade, or only trade sim. And realize the more it sounds like a sales pitch, the less likely the "education" is likely even good education.


"these people do not seem to be as intelligent as I am outside of their trading activities"
Unless you have seen outside verified results from these people, just assume they are not trading real money. I see a lot of people (educators and otherwise) claiming big profits. I suspect 90% of the statements are false.


Just as an example, in the past few years, 3 or 4 highly regarded trading educators have passed away. Turns out they did not trade at all! A tribute to one of them actually stated something like "Mr. XXXX was considered a genius in the trading field, even though he did not trade himself." (I actually know for a fact he almost had his electric turned off for non payment!)


Full DISCLOSURE: I sell trading education, too. I do actually trade though. Getting hammered today - short Silver, short US. UGH.

The trading education I bought very specifically and repeatedly emphasized how difficult trading is, and that it's never a "get rich quick" vehicle. It's specific to technical analysis.

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  #79 (permalink)
 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
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Always A Loser View Post
The trading education I bought very specifically and repeatedly emphasized how difficult trading is, and that it's never a "get rich quick" vehicle. It's specific to technical analysis.

Well that at least is truthful!

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  #80 (permalink)
 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
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Always A Loser View Post
I should mention, the main strategy I had learned, from another trader who has been very successful with it, was to use the CCI indicator (with slightly modified inputs) to gauge when a stock was overbought or oversold (100 and -100 levels). He added in a 2.5 Bollinger band, looking for reversion to the mean, and the trigger to enter was a divergence from price in the CCI. That's all he did, and he's consistently highly profitable. Most of his trading is day trading on 1, 5, and 15 minutes time frames. He has some other rules, such as watching for a break above or below the first 15 minutes candle and being biased in that direction. Overall, it was a fairly basic strategy.


What exactly happened when you tried it? Did the trader you learned it from confirm you were doing things right?


Not to discredit this other trader, but how sure are you that he is "highly successful" and "consistently highly profitable?" Have you sat with him and watched real account trades? Have you seen any statements?

Have you ever historically tested this approach to verify? Seems like it would be fairly easy to do.

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Last Updated on March 20, 2023


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