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Why are we always trading the wrong side?


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Why are we always trading the wrong side?

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  #31 (permalink)
 Cutloss 
Midway florida
 
 
Posts: 244 since May 2021

Light sun you can say whatever you want on this forum to me. I've been trading for a lot of years and I am consistently profitable on intraday trades and I have knowledge from some of the traders a lot of people read about in books but none of that really matters.

The point here is you should say exactly what you think to me or anyone else for that matter especially if it deals with what you believe is right or wrong about the markets. But the older I get and the more people I meet who trade will always tell you that the ecosystem of the markets is extremely vast. One never knows what anyone else is really doing in them at any specific point in time.

Historical charts...levels sure they exist but you and everyone else is clueless as to if they get punched will the mkt continue or reverse or reverse again etc. That's because the mkt is fluid and hft and mkt makers play the game with cancel orders which are free and dont ever register with regulators as manipulation. That I know for sure.

Do I use charts? Yup. Do I ever know when I make a trade that it will keep dropping or turn or continue to rally? Nope. But intake trades that I know see or feel something that will give me a high probability of a successful trade.

Having an open ear an open mind and a willingness to make changes in your trading if it is net losing will go a long way towards anyone's success.

I decided to write on this site occasionally because I have experience I am net consistently profitable and I need and want more liquidity so if others can participate and continue to participate more and do well then that will only help my style of trading.

History is just that history. Random walks will often repeat a specific level or price but the path or paths they take to get their will almost always be different that is why they are random walk.

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  #32 (permalink)
lightsun47
Toronto, Canada
 
 
Posts: 201 since May 2018
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My point was, since you're consistent, I think historical price points should have made relevancy as to why you're consistently taking only those trades out of all the probabilities.

You are not just taking random trades, which means, those probabilities must have not worked before BASED ON historical price moves.

To me, I agree prices can just randomly go here and there and can make us clueless, but yes, there are edges (or at least my edges) which work everyday for me (even today), based on the historical price movements I have seen before.

Contrary to what most believe which I have consistently seen here, edges can and will remain consistent. Nothing is a hundred percent, but yes, edges still exist and they still work as intended based on historical price movements from support to resistances I have experienced. Thanks.

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  #33 (permalink)
 Cutloss 
Midway florida
 
 
Posts: 244 since May 2021


I am in and out frequently and most of my trades are based on what is happening right now like right this second sure the past minute matters so that is history but as far as me ever looking for pivot points or oh it wne to 33,500 i tmust go there again all that has ever done for me is cause me to sitin losers hoping it will go hit those levels again. that is the beauty of trading there a million ways to do it successfully and 10 million ways to do it wrong. I am not saying history isnt important i mean.. look at 911 bet i would sell based on what the mkt did back then so sure there is some muscle market memory at play but i do nto make it my everything or peg anything i do towards levels or what it did here before. profits are not random because you take them you place a trade to exit at a profit which is far from random to you but to others it may seem random why you did it who knows. lots of times i exit because my wife wants me to do something or i need to go run an errand or i just want to watch the mtk fr aqhile and see what it does.

Higher highs is history but once you are in the mkt well you made history so be ready for history to stop repeating all of a sudden because yes they know its you and you are in!!

futures markets are very THIN from a data point persepctive very so machine s see retail trades very easily in the futures. they can guess what they are for sure with a very high accuracy and once they know how many are long they will try and trap them to get them to puke. that is how it works. this is why taking a loss fast is the best way but very difficult to do. i took the name cutloss to constantly reinforce that i need to cut losses faster am i perfect at it NOPE why cuz i am human. have a great night .

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  #34 (permalink)
 TWDsje   is a Vendor
 
 
Posts: 706 since Apr 2016
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lightsun47 View Post
Thanks, but I thought it was one of 'those' posts which discouraged and gave incorrect information? Please correct me if I am wrong. I wasn't shouting with caps, but was just highlighting my point, so please take it accordingly. Thanks.

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I would just ignore it. He's just spouting gibberish that doesn't have anything to do with the discussion.


lightsun47 View Post
My point was, since you're consistent, I think historical price points should have made relevancy as to why you're consistently taking only those trades out of all the probabilities.

You are not just taking random trades, which means, those probabilities must have not worked before BASED ON historical price moves.

Not necessarily. Your edge might have nothing to do with any historical or time series data. Maybe they took the trade because news came out. Maybe they're doing arbitrage. Either way though you should be able to look at how it performs, especially if you've been actively trading it. So we get back to the point. Most traders don't know enough about the statistics to really judge what they are experiencing. A 45% winrate might feel to them like they're getting crushed every time when that's basically what you'd get if your entries were random. Similarly you get guys that think they're gods because they've made some money when all you've had to do for the past year or so is go long.

Total Net Profit is not truth. It's a stochastic variable that will vary as the data set changes. It requires a bit of understanding about probabilities and distributions to know if what you are seeing is really random or not.

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  #35 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
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Going with the sheep...

isn't always the best decision:

Especially when it is the final road down to the slaughter

GFIs1

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  #36 (permalink)
 Cutloss 
Midway florida
 
 
Posts: 244 since May 2021

You are on the wrong side because the mkt in short and medium time intervals looks to stop out and take your money and steal your contracts! That's the entire point of everything I have stated so if you buy even a 1 lot micro there is an ultra short term counterparty looking to profit iff of you.

Win rates gave zero to do with being successful unless your take profit n take loss are always a constant % wise.. Then a win rate matters and is a useful tool. I bet 90 to 91% on over 5000 trades. I can use my win rate as a control factor to tell me something is off with me or my strat or my execution.

MY WIN RATE has zero to do with being on the wrong side. I am 80% of the time immediately on the wrong side for a bit..fir me wrong side means at a paper loss.

Stochastic academic ideas have zero to do with my profit or loss. Academics must always assume gaussian and it's far from that on many magnitudes. Cash vs futures is gaussian but that's why hft exist.

GOOD LUCK.

The opposite way to look at this post and being on the wrong side would mean 2 things.
1. You should always immediately reverse.
2. You should sell if u want to buy etc.

The experiment to understand this is to trade demo next to live. You will see your live 1 lot micros cause the algos to swarm at times whereas demo..the not keeps on chugging in it's easy direction. You aren't supposed to just click n print money off of a 50 dollar a month chart n quote system.

Interesting here that few said anything about my comment on how hft trades by cancel but they do..you can google it call the cme. 90 to 98% of all orders are cancelled after they have filled to satisfy holding the mkt where they need it.

imagine filling 70% of the orders on a support line. You know what side has more or less pressure. Imagine cancelling that pressure and letting aggressive algos pay up and push the mkt easily because you cancelled. If you had the capability to put a 100 lot in the dow futs at 1 tick you could fill 20 quickly and cancel the other 80. Thus the mkt would jump up or down to the next tick or 2 based on the vacuum you just created with your cancelled orders. Just cuz u cant see them doesnr mean they aren't there. Watch the sp500 dom and u can see how long it takes to work thru levels but then other times as it marked up or down the hft synthetic am are just cancelling. Moving the mkt like a samurai warrior with its own pressure all by cancelling. A dam burst of energy with mass cancels.

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  #37 (permalink)
 MNSTrading 
Grand Rapids, Michigan
 
Experience: None
Trading: Commodities and Russell
 
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Cutloss View Post
You are on the wrong side because the mkt in short and medium time intervals looks to stop out and take your money.


Yep. Be as long on time frame as you possibly can (I say)

Coming, they can't be denied. Going, they can't be detained.
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  #38 (permalink)
 Sandpaddict 
Langley
 
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Broker: IB
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MNSTrading View Post
Yep. Be as long on time frame as you possibly can (I say)

Markets are fractal. (Oh geez gonna get cutloss going again).

So no that's NOT true.

If you trade longer timeframes it just means you'll have bigger losses and bigger wins albeit longer timeframes are more stable.


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  #39 (permalink)
 Sandpaddict 
Langley
 
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TWDsje View Post
I would just ignore it. He's just spouting gibberish that doesn't have anything to do with the discussion.



Not necessarily. Your edge might have nothing to do with any historical or time series data. Maybe they took the trade because news came out. Maybe they're doing arbitrage. Either way though you should be able to look at how it performs, especially if you've been actively trading it. So we get back to the point. Most traders don't know enough about the statistics to really judge what they are experiencing. A 45% winrate might feel to them like they're getting crushed every time when that's basically what you'd get if your entries were random. Similarly you get guys that think they're gods because they've made some money when all you've had to do for the past year or so is go long.

Total Net Profit is not truth. It's a stochastic variable that will vary as the data set changes. It requires a bit of understanding about probabilities and distributions to know if what you are seeing is really random or not.

That last sentence gets right to the core of it doesn't it?

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  #40 (permalink)
 Cutloss 
Midway florida
 
 
Posts: 244 since May 2021


Get cutloss going again? Lol. Profit should never be left to the market to dictate. Especially if according to this thread you are on the wrong side a lot!

This will be my last post. Good luck to you and never forget when you are on the wrong side even if you reverse it will be the wrong side again.

I'm buying dips today in the Russell fits. That will put you on the right side a half hour after the open!

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