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Why are we always trading the wrong side?


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Why are we always trading the wrong side?

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  #21 (permalink)
 MNSTrading 
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GFIs1 View Post
Well - good question!



Of course these are mostly "new" traders with no feeling nor knowledge for the markets.

Thus:
KYM - "Know your market(s)"

GFIs1

Yep. Let's take an example, there are a lot to use but this maybe is a good one.




ES


So you go short at (a) because the market points down, but until it hits your stop you dont know you're on the wrong side of the market. once it hits (b) you reverse and are shown very clearly that you are on the right side. NOW lets say when you see your first down candle at 2pm you assume wrong side again, well thats silly, the market rolls and the price will go with and against you continuously.

Were you to ride it out you see the market goes up past where you got out, then the day ends. Are you on the wrong side because price is going against you or because you dont know why you took the position in the first place?

We had a guy take a field manager position and he talked a great game, like he knew construction well. We send him out to build a deck and he's looking that shit up on YouTube. He didnt know what he was doing when he took the position. Obs V.

Every one of my trades is going to go against me at some point. Doesn't mean I'm wrong on my direction.

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  #22 (permalink)
 Botts 
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arnie View Post
Not sure if anyone has discussed this here (did not find any similar topic), but why most of us seems to be trading, the majority of the time, the wrong side of the market?

We buy, the market goes down, we sell, the market goes up.
Usually we tend to say, when this start to happen on a daily basis, the trade we are initially thinking doing, we do the opposite.

But then the unthinkable happens, an example: we are looking to sell, but we, as smart human beings as we are, we think - wait, this time I'm going to do the opposite, I'm going to buy, and we buy, and again the ******* market goes the other way, and move lower.

So, we think - why didn't we go with our initial idea which was to sell? Why this time, doing the opposite of what we were thinking didn't work when in prior days, that would have worked?

One can go mad trying to understand this.
Something within our psychology put us on this path which can be difficult to get out of it.
Why do we have the tendency to read the market the wrong way?

I don't believe this has anything to do with what type of trading we're doing, scalping, order flow, charts, Gann, Elliot Waves, Fibonacci. We can see this across all of them, so it's safe to say, I think, the problem is phycological. How to deal with it, no idea!

Anyone?

If you're an Equities trader sooner or later you'll come to realize the "Market" only has one purpose "To facilitate trades."

The Market doesn't decide anything, not prices, not stops, not targets, not direction, not volatility.....

People do all of those things, either individually or through the use of algorithms, but in the end prices are decided by people's perception of what "Fair Value" is for any given instrument, company or commodity.

Personally I've noticed my trading is mostly done to the Long side, I rarely find myself trading from the Short side.
That's not to say I'm right, it's also not to say you should never trade to the Short side, it's simply something I've noticed about my own trading.

When I look at the longer term charts of the ES I don't think trading to the Long side is such a bad idea - generally.

ES Monthly 2005 - 2021 (2021-05-24_8-57-50-ET)


I think you need to look for something simple to trade, a set-up or a simple move that you can easily identify.
Where you can identify both an entry and a clear Risk (amount) you're willing to live with during your trade.


I like to trade when I see a move off a recent low that takes out a recent high where I can see a clear Risk amount I'm willing to live with.

MicroES Basic Long Setup - Looking for Higher Highs - With Risk Defined (2021-05-24_8-12-49-ET)


If you can find one trade set-up that works for you with consistency and master that one set-up you'll find you're suffering far less both emotionally and financially.
Once you've mastered that one set-up, then (if you're so inclined) you can start looking for other opportunities.

Best of luck,
Trade well

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  #23 (permalink)
 MNSTrading 
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Botts View Post

I like to trade when I see a move off a recent low that takes out a recent high where I can see a clear Risk amount I'm willing to live with.


Best of luck,
Trade well

Simple is better.




the world is a single flower

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  #24 (permalink)
 TWDsje   is a Vendor
 
 
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Is it really the case that most are trading the wrong side? Is it really the case for any one individual? Do you have stats? Have you tested the setup over a multi-year time period to see how it behaves?

I think what you'll find when you really dive into the stats is that the majority of market action is going to be seemingly random to us. Many assume that means an equal risk reward trade is a 50/50, but it's really more like a 45/55 because of the spread. Might not seem like much, but that can make a huge difference. For instance it's going to make having a long loss streak of 10 losses in a row twice as likely.

Then on top of that we tend to care more about the losses, and remember them better. So might it seem like you're just always wrong when the results that you are getting are really just random.

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  #25 (permalink)
 Cutloss 
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Results are not random and looking back at history has nothing to do with what the mkt will do when you are in it. I was on the right side this morning then in the afternoon the wrong side but I added and quickly was back on the right profitbside..

Then ibshortes the high in Nasdaq and russell only to get out at a profotbway too early then I got long es and gave back 900 but still up for the day.

I was on the wrong side a lot in es and russell when they were not moving much.

You must hold thru all of that wrong side or stop out and readd or u just wont ever make any money because u are always stopping out on the wrong side.

60 lots a slow day for me

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  #26 (permalink)
lightsun47
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Cutloss View Post
Results are not random and looking back at history has nothing to do with what the mkt will do when you are in it. I was on the right side this morning then in the afternoon the wrong side but I added and quickly was back on the right profitside.

How could have ANYONE in the world developed any strategies if looking back at history WITH REGARDS TO WHAT PRICE DID AT SPECIFIC FLOOR LEVELS DID NOTHING?

Can you please clarify your statement here? Thanks.




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  #27 (permalink)
 Sandpaddict 
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TWDsje View Post
Is it really the case that most are trading the wrong side? Is it really the case for any one individual? Do you have stats? Have you tested the setup over a multi-year time period to see how it behaves?

I think what you'll find when you really dive into the stats is that the majority of market action is going to be seemingly random to us. Many assume that means an equal risk reward trade is a 50/50, but it's really more like a 45/55 because of the spread. Might not seem like much, but that can make a huge difference. For instance it's going to make having a long loss streak of 10 losses in a row twice as likely.

Then on top of that we tend to care more about the losses, and remember them better. So might it seem like you're just always wrong when the results that you are getting are really just random.

Nicely put!

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  #28 (permalink)
 Sandpaddict 
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lightsun47 View Post
How could have ANYONE in the world developed any strategies if looking back at history WITH REGARDS TO WHAT PRICE DID AT SPECIFIC FLOOR LEVELS DID NOTHING?

Can you please clarify your statement here? Thanks.




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Don't do it lightsun47! Lol

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  #29 (permalink)
lightsun47
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Thanks, but I thought it was one of 'those' posts which discouraged and gave incorrect information? Please correct me if I am wrong. I wasn't shouting with caps, but was just highlighting my point, so please take it accordingly. Thanks.
Sandpaddict View Post
Don't do it lightsun47! Lol

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  #30 (permalink)
 Sandpaddict 
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lightsun47 View Post
Thanks, but I thought it was one of 'those' posts which discouraged and gave incorrect information? Please correct me if I am wrong. I wasn't shouting with caps, but was just highlighting my point, so please take it accordingly. Thanks.

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NO I ment YOUR right and you'll end up down an endless debate. That's all.

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