Yep. Let's take an example, there are a lot to use but this maybe is a good one.
ES
So you go short at (a) because the market points down, but until it hits your stop you dont know you're on the wrong side of the market. once it hits (b) you reverse and are shown very clearly that you are on the right side. NOW lets say when you see your first down candle at 2pm you assume wrong side again, well thats silly, the market rolls and the price will go with and against you continuously.
Were you to ride it out you see the market goes up past where you got out, then the day ends. Are you on the wrong side because price is going against you or because you dont know why you took the position in the first place?
We had a guy take a field manager position and he talked a great game, like he knew construction well. We send him out to build a deck and he's looking that shit up on YouTube. He didnt know what he was doing when he took the position. Obs V.
Every one of my trades is going to go against me at some point. Doesn't mean I'm wrong on my direction.
Coming, they can't be denied. Going, they can't be detained.
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If you're an Equities trader sooner or later you'll come to realize the "Market" only has one purpose "To facilitate trades."
The Market doesn't decide anything, not prices, not stops, not targets, not direction, not volatility.....
People do all of those things, either individually or through the use of algorithms, but in the end prices are decided by people's perception of what "Fair Value" is for any given instrument, company or commodity.
Personally I've noticed my trading is mostly done to the Long side, I rarely find myself trading from the Short side.
That's not to say I'm right, it's also not to say you should never trade to the Short side, it's simply something I've noticed about my own trading.
When I look at the longer term charts of the ES I don't think trading to the Long side is such a bad idea - generally.
ES Monthly 2005 - 2021 (2021-05-24_8-57-50-ET)
I think you need to look for something simple to trade, a set-up or a simple move that you can easily identify.
Where you can identify both an entry and a clear Risk (amount) you're willing to live with during your trade.
I like to trade when I see a move off a recent low that takes out a recent high where I can see a clear Risk amount I'm willing to live with.
MicroES Basic Long Setup - Looking for Higher Highs - With Risk Defined (2021-05-24_8-12-49-ET)
If you can find one trade set-up that works for you with consistency and master that one set-up you'll find you're suffering far less both emotionally and financially.
Once you've mastered that one set-up, then (if you're so inclined) you can start looking for other opportunities.
Best of luck,
Trade well
R.I.P. John Bottomley (Botts), 1956-2022.
Please visit this thread for more information.
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Is it really the case that most are trading the wrong side? Is it really the case for any one individual? Do you have stats? Have you tested the setup over a multi-year time period to see how it behaves?
I think what you'll find when you really dive into the stats is that the majority of market action is going to be seemingly random to us. Many assume that means an equal risk reward trade is a 50/50, but it's really more like a 45/55 because of the spread. Might not seem like much, but that can make a huge difference. For instance it's going to make having a long loss streak of 10 losses in a row twice as likely.
Then on top of that we tend to care more about the losses, and remember them better. So might it seem like you're just always wrong when the results that you are getting are really just random.
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Results are not random and looking back at history has nothing to do with what the mkt will do when you are in it. I was on the right side this morning then in the afternoon the wrong side but I added and quickly was back on the right profitbside..
Then ibshortes the high in Nasdaq and russell only to get out at a profotbway too early then I got long es and gave back 900 but still up for the day.
I was on the wrong side a lot in es and russell when they were not moving much.
You must hold thru all of that wrong side or stop out and readd or u just wont ever make any money because u are always stopping out on the wrong side.
How could have ANYONE in the world developed any strategies if looking back at history WITH REGARDS TO WHAT PRICE DID AT SPECIFIC FLOOR LEVELS DID NOTHING?
Can you please clarify your statement here? Thanks.
Thanks, but I thought it was one of 'those' posts which discouraged and gave incorrect information? Please correct me if I am wrong. I wasn't shouting with caps, but was just highlighting my point, so please take it accordingly. Thanks.
