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hmmmm, something doesn't sound right


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hmmmm, something doesn't sound right

  #21 (permalink)
goodoboy
Houston
 
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GFIs1 View Post
By backtesting you are not calculating eg. which day of the week, what news came out, what holidays were there etc. You get it: You just are number crunching a bunch of old data without any reference. And you omit any known and unknown things that were influencing the direction, the volatility and finally the price of the instrument you are testing. Be sure that those things around (like other markets ahead of time like Asia and then Europe) are strong.
So my personal experience with back testing is negative - like your example shown above. But my results with found patterns are working - so I never need a back test any more.
These are my revelations and are not meant as advise to anyone.
Still: I am still smiling a bit to read about backtests: 1, 30m, 60m, 4h, 1d? What is the REAL time frame?
You see...

Good luck
GFIs1

Hello GFIs1,

I have been discretionary trading for 5 years and have not made any money. I been SIM trying all kind of stuff. I never back test anything, just did what I want to following the price action teacher. And look where that got me, $0.00 in my pocket. Did I learn and see some repeatable patterns? Of courseeee, I see breakouts, trading ranges, PB, all that stuff. But guess, what I have no confidence on what exiting method to use. Day to day, can't stick with nothing. $0.00 made in my pocket.

Now what?

I would be a damn fool to continue trading this way. A stupid fool. The least I can do is program the breakout and try different exit methods. Or what ever else pattern I see on the chart to see if there is edge. This will make me feel better.

Do you understand what I mean man? Waking up everyday 220 days a year starring at a chart not knowing if the method I am trading worked in the past. 0 confidence. Sorry man, I am not doing that any more. It is stupid.

Now, if that works for you, man run with it. I do not know what the hell works. But I know who taught me this stuff, it ain't working. But guess what, if NT Strategy Analyzer show me a good curve for my trading idea, I will be happy. Better than not having nothing.

Matter of fact, stop all this talking man, post your broker statement so I see your discretionary trading works. That is why I honestly hate posting on these forums. Post your broker statement to prove your point. I have none to post, cause I make no money. You screw people up this way man all this talking. All this back and forward talking. If you have edge, post brokerage statement and prove it.

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  #22 (permalink)
goodoboy
Houston
 
Posts: 380 since Dec 2016
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GFIs1 View Post
This is not the platform here to exchange "proof "via broker statements.
What we like to see is real time trading if you can. No hindsight results or curve fitting back tests.
Trading is not winning with every trade. But not to lose control of the money you had put in first.

Start here your own JOURNAL even SIM now and show the followers what you are doing live. With this you will learn fast and you will get support.

Point.

GFIs1

GFIs1,

Why would I want to waste my time or anyone else time, starting a journal here trading when I have no clue on earth of how I am trading have high probability of making money?

What can others tell me about how I trade, that I do not already know? All they going to say is "how you know what you doing have high odds of making money, where you get this method from". One person going to give this direction, and another person going to give that direction. Back and forward talking. Another 5 years of confusion will go by and wasted time listening to people probably not even verified profitable traders. A few traders will start arguing about this and that, and how this works over the other. That is the problem, people who can not prove they are profitable trades for 1 year giving people advice on trading. That is stupid. I am not doing that no more. I only listen and follow people that make money. Period. Again, this is why I do not post advice on the board cause I am not profitable.

I can cut all that short, by simple programming my trading method and clicking back test, and view a equity curve myself. And learn how to build and validate algo from proven current profitable system developers.

In addition, I was reviewing some websites looking for an algo to invest in. Guess what, the service do not even let algo developers enter their algo for clients to see without one year verifiable live broker statements from the developer. This is my new rule as well. Ears are covered unless 1 year of broker statements shown. Period. You want to teach me, 1 year (2020) minimum of broker statements must be shown, then I pay you.

For now, I follow Jim Simon quote " past performance is the best predictor of success." And this man not playing around. Back test = past performance is the best predictor of success.

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  #23 (permalink)
goodoboy
Houston
 
Posts: 380 since Dec 2016
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WoodyFox View Post
@goodoboy

Yes always include your commissions. I will post some example strategy stats soon...I just been really busy. I'm also thinking of a good way to post a strategy I use without giving to much away. An equity curve by itself is not much proof a strategy works. Just look at your example.

Also, I see you thanked Kevindog and he has not posted in this thread. Although he has a proven track record and I agree with a lot of what he does. You don't need a $3,000 class to teach you how to build a strategy. Vendor's like to lurk in the background and PM traders to earn trust and then sell you things. Been there, done that Sorry Kevindog, nothing against you, just looking out for goodoboy.

Of course that its your business and education goodoboy, so do as do.

I did notice he thanked a post and then pulled it. Classic cover your tracks.

I will post more soon.

Hello WoodyFox,

I have to correct on you this.

@kevinkdog did not PM me. He private email me personally to help me after seeing my curve. He asked me did I consider slippage. He helped me after spending 6 hours trying to figure out why my SIM not match back test results. Later on NT support help me as well. He even shared with me a free slippage chart he gives he students. He did not have to do that. I have surely wasted his time with questions over the years and never paid the Kevin. From my research on Kevin, I have not found one flaw. His videos on youtube are clear and direct. For sure, he is not trying to sell me his course. He has a whole forum on helping traders. Lol, does not get any better than this.

@kevinkdog knows my email because in 2017 I was questioning him about taking his course. I decided to not take his course, because I thought at the time, I could do better manual trading. I thought I did not have enough ideas to test for his course at the time. I thought the course was pricey. I just thought I did not need it, even though I had programming experience. @kevinkdog and I have always kept in contact via email for different discussions. He is a good man. I even interviewed a few of his students personally back in January 2021 as I am thinking of buying his course while transitioning to 100% fully automated trader. I ask Kevin can I interview his student and they had nothing bad to say. One guy even showed me his equity curves easily. lol, he did not even hesitate.

Was it a bad decision not taking his course in 2017? hmmmm, probably so. It was mistake not taking his course. I could have learned how to develop and validate trading ideas, while at the same time starring at chart every day observing price patterns. At the time I thought I can day trade successfully, but I learned alot about my self. I need structured systematic way of trading. I need proof. Proof is edge. At time, I did not understand why I should have taken the course. Why? Cause Kevin is a real live trader. With proven results. Period. Show me someone else who teaches how to develop an edge. There is none that I know of. So yes, it was mistake. And I probably take his course here shortly as well.

Can someone learn to build algo systems themselves. Probably so. Butttttt, I rather learn the right way to do it first via professional teacher.

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  #24 (permalink)
goodoboy
Houston
 
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kevinkdog View Post
Thanks @goodoboy for this. This site is only good if the trolls are put in their place.

I've always been transparent here for nearly 9 years. I believe I've helped many people here, and never asked for anything in return (if I had, I should have been banned already.)

Kevin


Just for the record, I asked @goodoboy to set the record straight regarding the unsubstantiated thinly veiled attack on me. And, for the record, I have told @goodoboy a few times via e-mail that my course was probably not for him:

12/15/2020: "I won’t try to convince you [to take my course]"
03/09/2021: "I don’t think it [the answer to your trading dilemma] is my course either"

You're more than welcome Kevin. Everything you posted is very true indeed and is exactly what you told me. Thanks for all your help over the years. The trading community needs you!!

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  #25 (permalink)
 
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 WoodyFox 
Columbus, Ohio
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Futures
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kevinkdog View Post
Thanks @goodoboy for this. This site is only good if the trolls are put in their place.

I assume this if meant for me. The OP referenced you and you had no contributions to the thread. To keep transparent as a Vendor you should have responded in the thread. JMHO But I do not make the rules.

I simple gave the OP my opinion on paying for things that this site can give you for free. I specifically stated no hard feelings to you, but obviously you took it personal.

Sorry @goodoboy, As stated, I was going to post a detailed strat (I decided on a mean reversion for NQ).
Not my fav, but very tradable with a 12 year track record...I am now going to save this for a later date with another thread.

Let @kevindkdog go ahead and show one for this thread.

Good Luck in your trading.

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  #26 (permalink)
 
WoodyFox's Avatar
 WoodyFox 
Columbus, Ohio
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Futures
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kevinkdog View Post
Yes, when trolls accuse me of lurking in the background, PMing traders to earn trust and covering my tracks - ALL with no proof, mind you, I take it personal.

Go troll elsewhere.

You are taking this way to personal. Please stop with the name calling.

I am done with this thread.

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  #27 (permalink)
 
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 bobwest 
Western Florida
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  #28 (permalink)
 
WoodyFox's Avatar
 WoodyFox 
Columbus, Ohio
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Futures
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bobwest View Post
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With all do respect @bobwest, this was all clarified after the fact. @kevinkdog had no contributions to the thread. Only private emails to other members.

What about a warning to @kevindkdog for the name calling. Or is this allowed by some?

Thanks
Woody

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  #29 (permalink)
 
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 WoodyFox 
Columbus, Ohio
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Futures
Posts: 409 since May 2016
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bobwest View Post
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To be exact this is @kevinkdog 's post.

"Yes, when trolls accuse me of lurking in the background, PMing traders to earn trust and covering my tracks - *ALL with no proof, mind you*, I take it personal.

Go troll elsewhere."

Not very classy from a Vendor if you ask me? JMHO

For the record for future readers.

I was posting and he was not. He sent private emails to a futures.io member.

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  #30 (permalink)
 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
Posts: 3,646 since Jul 2012
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WoodyFox View Post
I assume this if meant for me. The OP referenced you and you had no contributions to the thread. To keep transparent as a Vendor you should have responded in the thread. JMHO But I do not make the rules.

I simple gave the OP my opinion on paying for things that this site can give you for free. I specifically stated no hard feelings to you, but obviously you took it personal.

Sorry @goodoboy, As stated, I was going to post a detailed strat (I decided on a mean reversion for NQ).
Not my fav, but very tradable with a 12 year track record...I am now going to save this for a later date with another thread.

Let @kevindkdog go ahead and show one for this thread.

Good Luck in your trading.


OK, here is one, not my fav, but very tradable with 19 year out of sample track record. I developed this in 2012, and have been trading it live since about 2014.

By itself, it will not make you rich (notice the flat period from 2016-9), but it still performs well.



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Last Updated on March 23, 2021


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