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hmmmm, something doesn't sound right


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hmmmm, something doesn't sound right

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  #1 (permalink)
goodoboy
Houston
 
 
Posts: 209 since Dec 2016
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Hello all,

I discretionary trade price action via a course I learned from I want mention the person name because I do not want to bash anyone. Am I consistent profitable trader, NO. Going on year 5 and nothing. Lucky, I been SIM trading and not lose real money besides a few Trading Combine fees from TopStepTrader and no please do not bash TST, I love them. great service. But I lost time and mental roller coaster. Yes, I have a alot of chart experience, but the goal is to make money.

Is it my fault? Hmmmmm, Yes it is my fault. But where did I go wrong.

Hmmmm, let's have a discussion something does not sound right about day trading.

Question:
How in the world is anyone profitable day trading who trades discretionary?

Here is why its my fault I am not profitable day trading yet?
It is not that I am not smart, I have a math degree so I understand stats and logic. Many will say take some mental trading class. hmmmmm, No I disagree with this. I can read Mark Douglas book until I am blue in the face. If what I am doing does not have Edge, I am pretty much screwed.

1. I did not ask the right questions from the person I bought a trading course from.
2. I did not verify that the person teaching me how to trade, was a proven profitable trader his/herself the past X amount of years.
3. I did not ask for this person to show me a trade log the past XXX to X,XXX amount of trades. I just took other reviews on him/her as legit, but I have no clue is this person with all the video courses and books even makes money. That is not good business sense on my part.
4. I did not ask this person to demonstrate an edge to me that I can somewhat believe in and have high odds of my trading business making money. There is no holy grail, but a back test sure helps calms the mental.
5. I did not personally back test (manual or automated) methods taught in the course. The course does a poor job of exiting methods to even test. Very vague. Why did I not manual back test? Cause as I was manually backtesting, there is too many ways to exiting a position. How do I know which one to start with. You see that is the gotcha with trading, anyone at anytime can say do this or try this, but the person telling you this never provides any proof of doing this or that is actually profitable.

I see why many fail at this day trading business or trading in general. It is not that a person is not smart, they are just not trained correctly by credible trading teachers. You know the reason I never post on a thread...It is because in the back of my mind "How can I help someone if I am I not making money". I personally feel I have no business giving someone trading advice. All I can say is back test it.

To sum up my thoughts,

1. I think discretionary trading without verification of an edge through a series of back testing is the worst thing on earth for a trader. It is not concrete, and you will always question what you are doing is profitable over the next XXX to X,XXX amount of trades.
2. I will never again buy a trading course from another teacher who can not provide me broker statements of atleast 1 year of trading AND demonstrate that what they plan to teach was profitable in history. Yes, I know noone will provide this, but oh well. Not getting my money and time if you can not prove it.
3. I will start programming my trading ideas and using automated trading platform to confirm if my trading ideas of what I see on the charts daily were profitable in history. For myself, I believe this is best. At least I know I stand a greater chance of success if a back test shows edge.
4. Recently, I was thinking about buy a trading system from a algo developer. I go to a website, and Bam many traders posting their equity curve. Within 5 minutes I saw Edge. Why the person, I bought this trading course not show me this? That is my Fault. Lesson Learned.

I think if you are struggling trader, take a step back and ask yourself "Whoever taught you, how do you know this person is credible?" How do you know the person was ever profitable? How do you know if what you doing every single day has high odds of making money in the future? And if you manual back test, did you go back a few years.

Just my thoughts. I hope it helps someone else or atleast start a kind conversation.

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  #2 (permalink)
 forrestang 
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I agree with you on those supposedly teaching others to trade... that they should be willing to demonstrate the ABILITY to trade profitably. I came to this realization many years ago, and have not purchased another course since.. although I may have been tempted several times.




goodoboy View Post
...How in the world is anyone profitable day trading who trades discretionary?

...You know the reason I never post on a thread...It is because in the back of my mind "How can I help someone if I am I not making money".

In a similar vein to the commentary I have quoted above, I cannot state this with certainty(like you I typically keep my mouth shut also), but I believe it mostly through a process of elimination... and that is, that I think one's success with trading will come down to how your brain works.

Not necessarily in the Mark Douglas sense, but just the way you THINK about the markets.

I actually find the brain part of trading the most interesting aspect of it now. I have written all types of ridiculous data gathering software, all types of indicators, machine learning algos in Matlab... and honestly I don't have much thought about any of it more. I mostly do it for fun sometimes, but not thinking it is going to make any money.

I don't really think there is any creative organization of indicators, lines on a chart, or anything else that can be coded that will be profitable long-term with directional trading. I think profitability will come down to the user's ability to decide WHEN to take a given signal, and WHEN not to.

I think backtesting can be a path towards a better realization, at least in terms of confidence. But I think your question that I emboldened above is the point, that it has to be DISCRETIONARY.

I actually wish this psychology section was something we focused on more on this site.

Other thoughts...

People are essentially educated for a minimum of 12 years like cattle... and we all generally think the same way in the aggregate because of it. The markets are traded by people. The charts are a reflection of people's perceptions.

There is a reason the world is the way it is. Despite the increase in the standard of living in life for all, the rich will always be rich, and the poor will always be poor. I think the markets are the same. In the zero-sum portions of the markets... for them to function the way they do... the wealth MUST flow from the MAJORITY to the MINORITY. For if this were not the case, what would be the point of it all?

We should be able to trade profitably knowing this?

I have recently become interested in philosophy more so than typical studies to understand trading. One passage I have mulled over from Montaigne and the education of the masses is the following:

"To return to my subject, there is nothing like arousing appetite and affection; otherwise all you make out of them is asses loaded with books. By dint of whipping, they are given their pocketful of learning for safekeeping; but if learning is to do us any good, we must not merely lodge it within us, we must espouse it."

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  #3 (permalink)
goodoboy
Houston
 
 
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forrestang View Post
I think backtesting can be a path towards a better realization, at least in terms of confidence. But I think your question that I emboldened above is the point, that it has to be DISCRETIONARY.

Thanks for the response forrestang,

In my opinion (only my opinion), Backtesting for an Edge in a trading method solves ALL problems in trading. Period.

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  #4 (permalink)
 WoodyFox 
Orlando, Florida
 
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goodoboy View Post
Hello all,

I discretionary trade price action via a course I learned from I want mention the person name because I do not want to bash anyone. Am I consistent profitable trader, NO. Going on year 5 and nothing. Lucky, I been SIM trading and not lose real money besides a few Trading Combine fees from TopStepTrader and no please do not bash TST, I love them. great service. But I lost time and mental roller coaster. Yes, I have a alot of chart experience, but the goal is to make money.

Is it my fault? Hmmmmm, Yes it is my fault. But where did I go wrong.

Hmmmm, let's have a discussion something does not sound right about day trading.

Question:
How in the world is anyone profitable day trading who trades discretionary?

Here is why its my fault I am not profitable day trading yet?
It is not that I am not smart, I have a math degree so I understand stats and logic. Many will say take some mental trading class. hmmmmm, No I disagree with this. I can read Mark Douglas book until I am blue in the face. If what I am doing does not have Edge, I am pretty much screwed.

1. I did not ask the right questions from the person I bought a trading course from.
2. I did not verify that the person teaching me how to trade, was a proven profitable trader his/herself the past X amount of years.
3. I did not ask for this person to show me a trade log the past XXX to X,XXX amount of trades. I just took other reviews on him/her as legit, but I have no clue is this person with all the video courses and books even makes money. That is not good business sense on my part.
4. I did not ask this person to demonstrate an edge to me that I can somewhat believe in and have high odds of my trading business making money. There is no holy grail, but a back test sure helps calms the mental.
5. I did not personally back test (manual or automated) methods taught in the course. The course does a poor job of exiting methods to even test. Very vague. Why did I not manual back test? Cause as I was manually backtesting, there is too many ways to exiting a position. How do I know which one to start with. You see that is the gotcha with trading, anyone at anytime can say do this or try this, but the person telling you this never provides any proof of doing this or that is actually profitable.

I see why many fail at this day trading business or trading in general. It is not that a person is not smart, they are just not trained correctly by credible trading teachers. You know the reason I never post on a thread...It is because in the back of my mind "How can I help someone if I am I not making money". I personally feel I have no business giving someone trading advice. All I can say is back test it.

To sum up my thoughts,

1. I think discretionary trading without verification of an edge through a series of back testing is the worst thing on earth for a trader. It is not concrete, and you will always question what you are doing is profitable over the next XXX to X,XXX amount of trades.
2. I will never again buy a trading course from another teacher who can not provide me broker statements of atleast 1 year of trading AND demonstrate that what they plan to teach was profitable in history. Yes, I know noone will provide this, but oh well. Not getting my money and time if you can not prove it.
3. I will start programming my trading ideas and using automated trading platform to confirm if my trading ideas of what I see on the charts daily were profitable in history. For myself, I believe this is best. At least I know I stand a greater chance of success if a back test shows edge.
4. Recently, I was thinking about buy a trading system from a algo developer. I go to a website, and Bam many traders posting their equity curve. Within 5 minutes I saw Edge. Why the person, I bought this trading course not show me this? That is my Fault. Lesson Learned.

I think if you are struggling trader, take a step back and ask yourself "Whoever taught you, how do you know this person is credible?" How do you know the person was ever profitable? How do you know if what you doing every single day has high odds of making money in the future? And if you manual back test, did you go back a few years.

Just my thoughts. I hope it helps someone else or atleast start a kind conversation.

This post is a perfect start to heading in the right direction. You now realize its on you and only you to find an edge.

Now is the harder part...go pick an instrument to study and break it apart every way you can until you find that darn thing.

Contrary to what some believe, they do exist and there is more than you think.

Once you find one, they start becoming easier. I believe the reason for this is not really just your understanding of a particular instrument or some kind of luck...but just the simple fact that you better understand the procedures in finding an edge. (Although I do believe knowing a market intimately does help a little)

So I would start with learning good methods of finding an edge. JMHO.

Please do not pay someone to teach you how to find a strategy/edge. Use this forum as a resource and combine that with some good old common sense to develop a method on your own.

Like you, I once came to the same realization...The light bulb turned On moment. LOL

Good Luck.

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  #5 (permalink)
goodoboy
Houston
 
 
Posts: 209 since Dec 2016
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WoodyFox View Post

So I would start with learning good methods of finding an edge. JMHO.

Please do not pay someone to teach you how to find a strategy/edge. Use this forum as a resource and combine that with some good old common sense to develop a method on your own.

Thank you WoodyFox,

I really appreciate your input.

I could be wrong and I appreciate your input, but the in my simple approach, the method to finding an edge is to :

1. Think of an idea on I see on the chart I stare at all day.
2. Program it
3. Click Back Test. Optimize, etc.
4. Start from step 1, if step 3 failed.

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  #6 (permalink)
 WoodyFox 
Orlando, Florida
 
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goodoboy View Post
Thank you WoodyFox,

I really appreciate your input.

I could be wrong and I appreciate your input, but the in my simple approach, the method to finding an edge is to :

1. Think of an idea on I see on the chart I stare at all day.
2. Program it
3. Click Back Test. Optimize, etc.
4. Start from step 1, if step 3 failed.

Yes thats the very basic method but there is more detail to the madness than that. I would start by building a bubble diagram of your method. You will need some checks and balances as there are many things that can effect the outcomes.

I also would watch the word optimize...this, most of the time, is a bad word when creating a strategy. JMHO.

Sent using the futures.io mobile app

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 Fonz 
Miami, Fl
 
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goodoboy View Post
Hello all,
I discretionary trade price action via a course I learned from I want mention the person name because I do not want to bash anyone. Am I consistent profitable trader, NO.

Goodoboy,

Thank you for this interesting thread. I guess, a lot of us will see part of your journey as ours. I certainly feel some similarities
I just would like to offer perspectives and different thoughts.

I am also a discretionary day and swing trader. And I don't believe that coding will help much. At least, coding and automate a strategy will give you a sort of confidence. I really think a small guy at home, simply cannot compete with big guys and HFT with home made algos. Also, "edge" with algos are very temporary and always bring huge drawdown, with probably few exceptions.

I will be very cynical about vendors: Coders, writers, publishers, coaches, etc. they all can make money selling their work, just not so much with their trading. It just require different skills. Can we find exceptions? Sure, but are we certain that "she or he will give us all"? Being able to write a book is one thing, being able to write a book every other year, is much better, to make a living.
Perhaps, looking for part of the solution to help us to create our own solution, could be the approach that we should have.

And just think about that: After all these years of losses and work, finally one is successful. At the same time, just check the results of the pool "If you needed one-on-one help with any trading issue, how much would you pay?" So... Why a reel successful trader will coach for $500?? At that point of the journey for the successful guy, it became very emotional, and to begin now a new career or a new way to make money would be weird and make no sense.

After about 100 books, 1 seminar, 2 courses, 2 paid algos, and of course trying to code, I decided to look for patterns, with all kind of charts and DOM at the same time, for only 2 to 3 different Futures. I did it for .. A long time.
I am not talking about head and shoulder kind of patterns, just repetitive patterns reflecting the perception of traders. I think these "behavioral patterns" are more perceptible with other kind of candles than time based Japanese candles.

Another perspective: We think that 90% of Day traders are losers. Actually, more than 90% of all traders are losers. But how many of those 10% of profitable traders right now, are still profitable after few months and after few years? 1%? How many successful trader for so many losers can we really find?
Just that kind of questions made me a contrarian thinker (not necessary a contrarian trader): We could try to challenge all kind of certainties and other approaches of how we can extract money from the markets. After all, it is the goal, right?
Do you know how many losers think "KISS"? A better question to ask would be why they like the Kiss concept?
Sell in May and go away?
No emotions when trading is the key?
An algo will be better than me... But I programmed this algo myself with my losing programmed mind?
Let your winners run.. It doesn't hurt to cash in our winners..
Etc.

I was not trying to argue, just to give different thoughts.
Happy thinking!

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  #8 (permalink)
goodoboy
Houston
 
 
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WoodyFox View Post
Yes thats the very basic method but there is more detail to the madness than that. I would start by building a bubble diagram of your method. You will need some checks and balances as there are many things that can effect the outcomes.

I also would watch the word optimize...this, most of the time, is a bad word when creating a strategy. JMHO.

Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Hello WoodyFox,

Do you use NT8 to program, test and validate algos?

Have you find any edges in your testing?

I also use NT8 for programming algos and testing.

Thank you,

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  #9 (permalink)
 WoodyFox 
Orlando, Florida
 
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Fonz View Post
I really think a small guy at home, simply cannot compete with big guys and HFT with home made algos. Also, "edge" with algos are very temporary and always bring huge drawdown, with probably few exceptions.

With all do respect...this is so not true. Although most traders do believe this.

"I can't do it , so it must not be true"

Don't get me wrong, the process does come with its own issues...but the profits way out weigh the drawdowns.

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 WoodyFox 
Orlando, Florida
 
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goodoboy View Post
Hello WoodyFox,

Do you use NT8 to program, test and validate algos?

Have you find any edges in your testing?

I also use NT8 for programming algos and testing.

Thank you,

@goodoboy

Yes I use NT8 and others.

I have found many edges in several markets using many different approaches. (Swing, Intraday, Trend, Mean Reversion, etc.)

I'm addicted to finding them...Its this obsession and not the money that caused me to make the turn in trading.

And no I won't share them. (I realize you did not ask, but for others that may read this)

If you can't find them yourself, you will always be trying to copy from others.

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 Fonz 
Miami, Fl
 
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WoodyFox View Post
With all do respect...this is so not true. Although most traders do believe this.

"I can't do it , so it must not be true"

Don't get me wrong, the process does come with its own issues...but the profits way out weigh the drawdowns.

No problem, just different thoughts

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  #12 (permalink)
goodoboy
Houston
 
 
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WoodyFox View Post
@goodoboy

Yes I use NT8 and others.

I have found many edges in several markets using many different approaches. (Swing, Intraday, Trend, Mean Reversion, etc.)

I'm addicted to finding them...Its this obsession and not the money that caused me to make the turn in trading.

And no I won't share them. (I realize you did not ask, but for others that may read this)

If you can't find them yourself, you will always be trying to copy from others.

Thank you WoodyFox.

I LOVE your post. It is the best post I ever read on a trading forum. Someone who is serious about finding edges and ONLY encouraging traders to find them.

No, I will never ask someone for their hard work for sharing their edge with me. No sir.

And no, I will not be copying someone else.

Thank you. Your post gives me lots of confidence.

I will never again trade again without a proven edge in backtest. Never. Ever. Period.

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goodoboy
Houston
 
 
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Fonz View Post
At least, coding and automate a strategy will give you a sort of confidence.

Perhaps, looking for part of the solution to help us to create our own solution, could be the approach that we should have.

Thank you Fonz,

I enjoy reading your comments. Thank you.

I like the two sentences you stated.

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  #14 (permalink)
goodoboy
Houston
 
 
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WoodyFox View Post
With all do respect...this is so not true. Although most traders do believe this.

"I can't do it , so it must not be true"

Don't get me wrong, the process does come with its own issues...but the profits way out weigh the drawdowns.

Morning WoodyFox,

Do you see how you stated "With all do respect...this is so not true."? Do you know how you can make this claim more believable? Post equity curve of your finding to prove Fonz wrong so you help Fonz realize, yes edges in algo day trading do exist if look and try hard enough. By you doing this you help me and you help other traders reading this thread and provide that confidence to beginner traders or traders in the struggle curve of their journey. This is the reason I do not post on forums, because in my professional opinion, I can not prove anything at this point, so it makes no sense to provide statements or advice to someone unless I have the evidence to prove and debate someone.

So please help other futures traders reading this post and prove your case by showing an equity curve of some edges you find? Your knowledge can make someone day happy.

We all need to start backing up what we say to make a better trading experience for everyone.

I will go first.

Here some curve and stats of an intraday automated system I am working on now. It looks profitable to me and have the edge. I need to run in SIM mode now to make sure backtest not lie to me.

prrof 2


proof 1

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goodoboy
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goodoboy View Post
Morning WoodyFox,

Do you see how you stated "With all do respect...this is so not true."? Do you know how you can make this claim more believable? Post equity curve of your finding to prove Fonz wrong so you help Fonz realize, yes edges in algo day trading do exist if look and try hard enough. By you doing this you help me and you help other traders reading this thread and provide that confidence to beginner traders or traders in the struggle curve of their journey. This is the reason I do not post on forums, because in my professional opinion, I can not prove anything at this point, so it makes no sense to provide statements or advice to someone unless I have the evidence to prove and debate someone.

So please help other futures traders reading this post and prove your case by showing an equity curve of some edges you find? Your knowledge can make someone day happy.

We all need to start backing up what we say to make a better trading experience for everyone.

I will go first.

Here some curve and stats of an intraday automated system I am working on now. It looks profitable to me and have the edge. I need to run in SIM mode now to make sure backtest not lie to me.

prrof 2


proof 1

Hello all,

I made a mistakes with my algo back testing. Please ignore the curve and stats above, they are misleading and false. I will explain the error and show the true stats shortly.

Again, those stats are false and I can not edit the post any more and certainly do not want to mislead anyone with false equity curve and back test results.

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 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
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Don't fetch too far!

Hi @goodoboy
I can feel your travel as this is a search for everyone to find an "edge".
That can not be bought by a book or paying for lengthy and expensive courses.

Just find your own path here on fio!
This is to be found in the JOURNAL section.

You can find a perfect base of journals but some of them are live and this for free! You can watch the trader showing his preparation, announces his trade with entry and exit (level or time based) and you can see the trade start, the development and finally the exit of that trade. Finally the result are to be found in the journal with the process of every positive and of course as well the negative results.
You just need to follow the live trading in the journals. Some with actual charts as well. No need for a better proof - as you can it see live.
I know of at least 3 journals that offer such nearly every day.

My approach: No course - no books - just self learning. Building pattern based systems - some easy to program - some not programmable. The main thing is: Forget about back testing. The markets are changing every quarter, every year. You can not find an edge by such tests. Just my opinion.

To the end: Don't give up!

GFIs1

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goodoboy
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goodoboy View Post
Hello all,

I made a mistakes with my algo back testing. Please ignore the curve and stats above, they are misleading and false. I will explain the error and show the true stats shortly.

Again, those stats are false and I can not edit the post any more and certainly do not want to mislead anyone with false equity curve and back test results.

After adding slippage, the algo has no edge and is complete failure. Thank you @kevinkdog

Lesson learned add slippage.
added slippage

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  #18 (permalink)
goodoboy
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GFIs1 View Post
Don't fetch too far!

Hi @goodoboy
I can feel your travel as this is a search for everyone to find an "edge".
That can not be bought by a book or paying for lengthy and expensive courses.

Just find your own path here on fio!
This is to be found in the JOURNAL section.

You can find a perfect base of journals but some of them are live and this for free! You can watch the trader showing his preparation, announces his trade with entry and exit (level or time based) and you can see the trade start, the development and finally the exit of that trade. Finally the result are to be found in the journal with the process of every positive and of course as well the negative results.
You just need to follow the live trading in the journals. Some with actual charts as well. No need for a better proof - as you can it see live.
I know of at least 3 journals that offer such nearly every day.

My approach: No course - no books - just self learning. Building pattern based systems - some easy to program - some not programmable. The main thing is: Forget about back testing. The markets are changing every quarter, every year. You can not find an edge by such tests. Just my opinion.

To the end: Don't give up!

GFIs1

Thank you for the response and conversation.

I am not too sure about the section in red. That is a very bold statement.

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goodoboy
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WoodyFox View Post
@goodoboy

Yes always include your commissions. I will post some example strategy stats soon...I just been really busy. I'm also thinking of a good way to post a strategy I use without giving to much away. An equity curve by itself is not much proof a strategy works. Just look at your example.

Also, I see you thanked Kevindog and he has not posted in this thread. Although he has a proven track record and I agree with a lot of what he does. You don't need a $3,000 class to teach you how to build a strategy. Vendor's like to lurk in the background and PM traders to earn trust and then sell you things. Been there, done that Sorry Kevindog, nothing against you, just looking out for goodoboy.

Of course that its your business and education goodoboy, so do as do.

I did notice he thanked a post and then pulled it. Classic cover your tracks.

I will post more soon.

Thanks for the review woodyfox and I appreciate it fully.

Yes, I was pretty down over the weekend due this I learned. My trading idea have no edge. But I did not lose money, just lose time. I am glad I let algo run in SIM and saw the discrepancies.

Yes, an algo with equity curve display is not proof. Right now, I can show a perfect equity curve in NT by doing some tricks. This is why SIM performance or broker statements from the algo for 6 months to 1 year is the only proof and validation of true edge.

Once I get an algo running live, I will post on the forum 1 year broker statement from my algo(s). I will post back test equity curve, sim tracked curve, and live results curve so I can show off I found the edge in the markets. This is what everyone on the forum should be showing and then advising traders how to get better.

You do the same here woody, just post your back test equity curve and live real money broker statement of the algo so you prove intraday systems do exist.

I do not have any comments on rather or not a course is needed for me. I do not know.

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 GFIs1 
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goodoboy View Post
Thanks for the review woodyfox and I appreciate it fully...
You do the same here woody, just post your back test equity curve and live real money broker statement of the algo so you prove intraday systems do exist.

This is not the platform here to exchange "proof "via broker statements.
What we like to see is real time trading if you can. No hindsight results or curve fitting back tests.
Trading is not winning with every trade. But not to lose control of the money you had put in first.

Start here your own JOURNAL even SIM now and show the followers what you are doing live. With this you will learn fast and you will get support.

Point.

GFIs1

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goodoboy
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GFIs1 View Post
By backtesting you are not calculating eg. which day of the week, what news came out, what holidays were there etc. You get it: You just are number crunching a bunch of old data without any reference. And you omit any known and unknown things that were influencing the direction, the volatility and finally the price of the instrument you are testing. Be sure that those things around (like other markets ahead of time like Asia and then Europe) are strong.
So my personal experience with back testing is negative - like your example shown above. But my results with found patterns are working - so I never need a back test any more.
These are my revelations and are not meant as advise to anyone.
Still: I am still smiling a bit to read about backtests: 1, 30m, 60m, 4h, 1d? What is the REAL time frame?
You see...

Good luck
GFIs1

Hello GFIs1,

I have been discretionary trading for 5 years and have not made any money. I been SIM trying all kind of stuff. I never back test anything, just did what I want to following the price action teacher. And look where that got me, $0.00 in my pocket. Did I learn and see some repeatable patterns? Of courseeee, I see breakouts, trading ranges, PB, all that stuff. But guess, what I have no confidence on what exiting method to use. Day to day, can't stick with nothing. $0.00 made in my pocket.

Now what?

I would be a damn fool to continue trading this way. A stupid fool. The least I can do is program the breakout and try different exit methods. Or what ever else pattern I see on the chart to see if there is edge. This will make me feel better.

Do you understand what I mean man? Waking up everyday 220 days a year starring at a chart not knowing if the method I am trading worked in the past. 0 confidence. Sorry man, I am not doing that any more. It is stupid.

Now, if that works for you, man run with it. I do not know what the hell works. But I know who taught me this stuff, it ain't working. But guess what, if NT Strategy Analyzer show me a good curve for my trading idea, I will be happy. Better than not having nothing.

Matter of fact, stop all this talking man, post your broker statement so I see your discretionary trading works. That is why I honestly hate posting on these forums. Post your broker statement to prove your point. I have none to post, cause I make no money. You screw people up this way man all this talking. All this back and forward talking. If you have edge, post brokerage statement and prove it.

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goodoboy
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GFIs1 View Post
This is not the platform here to exchange "proof "via broker statements.
What we like to see is real time trading if you can. No hindsight results or curve fitting back tests.
Trading is not winning with every trade. But not to lose control of the money you had put in first.

Start here your own JOURNAL even SIM now and show the followers what you are doing live. With this you will learn fast and you will get support.

Point.

GFIs1

GFIs1,

Why would I want to waste my time or anyone else time, starting a journal here trading when I have no clue on earth of how I am trading have high probability of making money?

What can others tell me about how I trade, that I do not already know? All they going to say is "how you know what you doing have high odds of making money, where you get this method from". One person going to give this direction, and another person going to give that direction. Back and forward talking. Another 5 years of confusion will go by and wasted time listening to people probably not even verified profitable traders. A few traders will start arguing about this and that, and how this works over the other. That is the problem, people who can not prove they are profitable trades for 1 year giving people advice on trading. That is stupid. I am not doing that no more. I only listen and follow people that make money. Period. Again, this is why I do not post advice on the board cause I am not profitable.

I can cut all that short, by simple programming my trading method and clicking back test, and view a equity curve myself. And learn how to build and validate algo from proven current profitable system developers.

In addition, I was reviewing some websites looking for an algo to invest in. Guess what, the service do not even let algo developers enter their algo for clients to see without one year verifiable live broker statements from the developer. This is my new rule as well. Ears are covered unless 1 year of broker statements shown. Period. You want to teach me, 1 year (2020) minimum of broker statements must be shown, then I pay you.

For now, I follow Jim Simon quote " past performance is the best predictor of success." And this man not playing around. Back test = past performance is the best predictor of success.

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goodoboy
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WoodyFox View Post
@goodoboy

Yes always include your commissions. I will post some example strategy stats soon...I just been really busy. I'm also thinking of a good way to post a strategy I use without giving to much away. An equity curve by itself is not much proof a strategy works. Just look at your example.

Also, I see you thanked Kevindog and he has not posted in this thread. Although he has a proven track record and I agree with a lot of what he does. You don't need a $3,000 class to teach you how to build a strategy. Vendor's like to lurk in the background and PM traders to earn trust and then sell you things. Been there, done that Sorry Kevindog, nothing against you, just looking out for goodoboy.

Of course that its your business and education goodoboy, so do as do.

I did notice he thanked a post and then pulled it. Classic cover your tracks.

I will post more soon.

Hello WoodyFox,

I have to correct on you this.

@kevinkdog did not PM me. He private email me personally to help me after seeing my curve. He asked me did I consider slippage. He helped me after spending 6 hours trying to figure out why my SIM not match back test results. Later on NT support help me as well. He even shared with me a free slippage chart he gives he students. He did not have to do that. I have surely wasted his time with questions over the years and never paid the Kevin. From my research on Kevin, I have not found one flaw. His videos on youtube are clear and direct. For sure, he is not trying to sell me his course. He has a whole forum on helping traders. Lol, does not get any better than this.

@kevinkdog knows my email because in 2017 I was questioning him about taking his course. I decided to not take his course, because I thought at the time, I could do better manual trading. I thought I did not have enough ideas to test for his course at the time. I thought the course was pricey. I just thought I did not need it, even though I had programming experience. @kevinkdog and I have always kept in contact via email for different discussions. He is a good man. I even interviewed a few of his students personally back in January 2021 as I am thinking of buying his course while transitioning to 100% fully automated trader. I ask Kevin can I interview his student and they had nothing bad to say. One guy even showed me his equity curves easily. lol, he did not even hesitate.

Was it a bad decision not taking his course in 2017? hmmmm, probably so. It was mistake not taking his course. I could have learned how to develop and validate trading ideas, while at the same time starring at chart every day observing price patterns. At the time I thought I can day trade successfully, but I learned alot about my self. I need structured systematic way of trading. I need proof. Proof is edge. At time, I did not understand why I should have taken the course. Why? Cause Kevin is a real live trader. With proven results. Period. Show me someone else who teaches how to develop an edge. There is none that I know of. So yes, it was mistake. And I probably take his course here shortly as well.

Can someone learn to build algo systems themselves. Probably so. Butttttt, I rather learn the right way to do it first via professional teacher.

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goodoboy
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kevinkdog View Post
Thanks @goodoboy for this. This site is only good if the trolls are put in their place.

I've always been transparent here for nearly 9 years. I believe I've helped many people here, and never asked for anything in return (if I had, I should have been banned already.)

Kevin


Just for the record, I asked @goodoboy to set the record straight regarding the unsubstantiated thinly veiled attack on me. And, for the record, I have told @goodoboy a few times via e-mail that my course was probably not for him:

12/15/2020: "I wonít try to convince you [to take my course]"
03/09/2021: "I donít think it [the answer to your trading dilemma] is my course either"

You're more than welcome Kevin. Everything you posted is very true indeed and is exactly what you told me. Thanks for all your help over the years. The trading community needs you!!

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 WoodyFox 
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kevinkdog View Post
Thanks @goodoboy for this. This site is only good if the trolls are put in their place.

I assume this if meant for me. The OP referenced you and you had no contributions to the thread. To keep transparent as a Vendor you should have responded in the thread. JMHO But I do not make the rules.

I simple gave the OP my opinion on paying for things that this site can give you for free. I specifically stated no hard feelings to you, but obviously you took it personal.

Sorry @goodoboy, As stated, I was going to post a detailed strat (I decided on a mean reversion for NQ).
Not my fav, but very tradable with a 12 year track record...I am now going to save this for a later date with another thread.

Let @kevindkdog go ahead and show one for this thread.

Good Luck in your trading.

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 WoodyFox 
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kevinkdog View Post
Yes, when trolls accuse me of lurking in the background, PMing traders to earn trust and covering my tracks - ALL with no proof, mind you, I take it personal.

Go troll elsewhere.

You are taking this way to personal. Please stop with the name calling.

I am done with this thread.

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 bobwest 
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 WoodyFox 
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bobwest View Post
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With all do respect @bobwest, this was all clarified after the fact. @kevinkdog had no contributions to the thread. Only private emails to other members.

What about a warning to @kevindkdog for the name calling. Or is this allowed by some?

Thanks
Woody

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 WoodyFox 
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bobwest View Post
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To be exact this is @kevinkdog 's post.

"Yes, when trolls accuse me of lurking in the background, PMing traders to earn trust and covering my tracks - *ALL with no proof, mind you*, I take it personal.

Go troll elsewhere."

Not very classy from a Vendor if you ask me? JMHO

For the record for future readers.

I was posting and he was not. He sent private emails to a futures.io member.

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 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
 
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WoodyFox View Post
I assume this if meant for me. The OP referenced you and you had no contributions to the thread. To keep transparent as a Vendor you should have responded in the thread. JMHO But I do not make the rules.

I simple gave the OP my opinion on paying for things that this site can give you for free. I specifically stated no hard feelings to you, but obviously you took it personal.

Sorry @goodoboy, As stated, I was going to post a detailed strat (I decided on a mean reversion for NQ).
Not my fav, but very tradable with a 12 year track record...I am now going to save this for a later date with another thread.

Let @kevindkdog go ahead and show one for this thread.

Good Luck in your trading.


OK, here is one, not my fav, but very tradable with 19 year out of sample track record. I developed this in 2012, and have been trading it live since about 2014.

By itself, it will not make you rich (notice the flat period from 2016-9), but it still performs well.



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 bobwest 
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WoodyFox View Post
With all do respect @bobwest, this was all clarified after the fact. @kevinkdog had no contributions to the thread. Only private emails to other members.

What about a warning to @kevindkdog for the name calling. Or is this allowed by some?

Thanks
Woody

It is allowed for no one. I believe Kevin is deleting his posts, and I am glad to see it. Everyone should cool down.

I had not read @goodoboy's explanation of what went on until I had almost finished my post, which took me some time to say what I wanted to say, the way I wanted to say it. When I read his post, I included what he said into mine.

When you say someone is lurking in wait to take advantage of someone, and is covering their tracks, that is on the face of it an accusation of wrongdoing that needs some serious evidence, or it is on the face of it rude. I deleted the post based on the violation of policy, and it was enough, without @goodoboy's clarifying remarks. If I had been faster on the draw, I would have deleted it before he said anything.

If you want to say someone is up to no good, you will need to show some evidence and keep things on a professional level in any case.

-------------------

Let me say that I have enjoyed and benefited from other posts by both you and Kevin in the past. In no sense is anything I wrote meant to be unfair to either.

But it's my job to keep things on an even keel if I can, and that's what I believe I am doing now. The mods spend a lot of effort trying to be even-handed. I hope I have been.... but I have to call them as I see them, too.

I'm sure we can keep cool and go on with things without anything becoming more personal than it needs to be, from any side.

Bob.

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 bobwest 
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WoodyFox View Post
To be exact this is @kevinkdog 's post.

"Yes, when trolls accuse me of lurking in the background, PMing traders to earn trust and covering my tracks - *ALL with no proof, mind you*, I take it personal.

Go troll elsewhere."

Not very classy from a Vendor if you ask me? JMHO

For the record for future readers.

I was posting and he was not. He sent private emails to a futures.io member.

And, let me say, let us just drop all this, shall we?

We all have better things to do than keep making points. It's all been said.

He's deleted his posts, and we can let it end now.

Bob.

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 WoodyFox 
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OK, here is one, not my fav, but very tradable with 19 year out of sample track record. I developed this in 2012, and have been trading it live since about 2014.

By itself, it will not make you rich (notice the flat period from 2016-9), but it still performs well.



@kevinkdog I hope this is behind us.

Thank you for posting. Are you willing to say more info of your strategy (mean reversion, Trend, frequency of trades, MAE per trade, type of capital that may be needed, etc).

This may help other traders see what is possible.

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 WoodyFox 
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bobwest View Post
And, let me say, let us just drop all this, shall we?

We all have better things to do than keep making points. It's all been said.

He's deleted his posts, and we can let it end now.

Bob.

Yes, Sorry and fully agree.

Thanks for what you do...We need this at times.

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kevinkdog View Post
OK, here is one, not my fav, but very tradable with 19 year out of sample track record. I developed this in 2012, and have been trading it live since about 2014.

By itself, it will not make you rich (notice the flat period from 2016-9), but it still performs well.



Hello Kevin,

Thank you for posting and inspiring me. Great curve and great direction you provided me.

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goodoboy
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bobwest View Post
It is allowed for no one. I believe Kevin is deleting his posts, and I am glad to see it. Everyone should cool down.

I had not read @goodoboy's explanation of what went on until I had almost finished my post, which took me some time to say what I wanted to say, the way I wanted to say it. When I read his post, I included what he said into mine.

When you say someone is lurking in wait to take advantage of someone, and is covering their tracks, that is on the face of it an accusation of wrongdoing that needs some serious evidence, or it is on the face of it rude. I deleted the post based on the violation of policy, and it was enough, without @goodoboy's clarifying remarks. If I had been faster on the draw, I would have deleted it before he said anything.

If you want to say someone is up to no good, you will need to show some evidence and keep things on a professional level in any case.

-------------------

Let me say that I have enjoyed and benefited from other posts by both you and Kevin in the past. In no sense is anything I wrote meant to be unfair to either.

But it's my job to keep things on an even keel if I can, and that's what I believe I am doing now. The mods spend a lot of effort trying to be even-handed. I hope I have been.... but I have to call them as I see them, too.

I'm sure we can keep cool and go on with things without anything becoming more personal than it needs to be, from any side.

Bob.

Thank you Bob for the settlement.

We are all friends. Thank you Kevin and Woody.

I will keep everyone updated on my direction I will be going shortly. I have some good direction now and I feel happy about it.

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 GFIs1 
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It is time to say

Goodbye to "good boy" now. Don't feed the trolls!


No need for most rude comments (in red and 72 points) in a thread of a so called trader who asks to discuss his problems here and and is not capable to discuss trading opinions. Plus answers such as "stop all this talking man, post your broker statement so I see your discretionary trading works".

Enough is enough!

GFIs1

@bobwest - please check for closing this thread. It is one that does not reach the minimum standard set for fio. Thanks!

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 bobwest 
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GFIs1 View Post
It is time to say

Goodbye to "good boy" now. Don't feed the trolls!


No need for most rude comments (in red and 72 points) in a thread of a so called trader who asks to discuss his problems here and and is not capable to discuss trading opinions. Plus answers such as "stop all this talking man, post your broker statement so I see your discretionary trading works".

Enough is enough!

GFIs1

@bobwest - please check for closing this thread. It is one that does not reach the minimum standard set for fio. Thanks!

Let's please have no more controversy or back and forth comments in this thread, by anyone, on any subject.

I do understand that there were some things said and written by different people that rubbed others the wrong way. I am asking everyone to simply ignore any perceived or actual offense and simply move on.

I think that it is very important to realize that things communicated in writing, over the internet, and with a strong emphasis can be offensive to others. Sometimes the offense is deliberate, sometimes it may not be, sometimes something was just communicated in a way that came across too strongly. I am not saying that there is no reason to take them that way, but I am saying that a huge amount of words have now been expended in this thread by members who have felt they had reason to complain.

Let us just drop it all and go back to being courteous and understanding with each other.

This entire business has taken up entirely too much time from all of us, who probably have other things to do.

So, I am not minimizing your views, nor anyone else's, but I am suggesting we have peace here and let all these matters rest.

Thanks. We need peace now.

Bob.

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 bobwest 
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PS, for everyone: no one is going to post statements, and no one has to. It would be great to know whether someone actually is trading with a profit, and if someone wants to post his statements, that is fine, but very rare.

I know Kevin has made results available at different times, and I remember years ago when Mike did. And it is acceptable to draw any conclusions anyone likes when the statements are not provided. But members on FIO are not vendors pitching for anyone's business (if we find they are, we ban them), and if a non-vendor wants to keep their financial business private, that is something they have a perfect right to do.

Frankly, I don't think vendors are going to publish their results either, but that's a different situation.

I just wanted to add this little note about what can be expected of others.

Now, I hope the temperature can come down a little and we can all get along.

Bob.

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goodoboy
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kevinkdog View Post
OK, here is one, not my fav, but very tradable with 19 year out of sample track record. I developed this in 2012, and have been trading it live since about 2014.

By itself, it will not make you rich (notice the flat period from 2016-9), but it still performs well.



Once again, thank you kevinkdog for posting this wonderful curve.

This is how it is done everyone, if you want to help the traders, you have to show the proof of live trades and equity curve first, then let the trader work extremely hard to find their own edge(s). You can not give advice and be unprofitable yourself.

Thanks for all your kind help kevindog and I am definitely reading your book as we discussed. I was an idot for not reading 4 years ago, but I did not know any better and thought I can do it alone, listening to my unprofitable trading friends. WRONG. I need edges to trade. Now I only listen to people like Kevin, Jim Simon, and any other profitable traders. So far, I only see algo traders have the edge. I do not see discretionary traders showing any thing, just lots of talking and posting ideas. I only listen to algo traders now.

Thank you everyone.

I hope one day, I can get profitable and stay profitable, so I can help other traders. I want dare help traders now cause I make no money.

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 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
 
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goodoboy View Post
Once again, thank you kevinkdog for posting this wonderful curve.

This is how it is done everyone, if you want to help the traders, you have to show the proof of live trades and equity curve first, then let the trader work extremely hard to find their own edge(s). You can not give advice and be unprofitable yourself.

Thanks for all your kind help kevindog and I am definitely reading your book as we discussed. I was an idot for not reading 4 years ago, but I did not know any better and thought I can do it alone, listening to my unprofitable trading friends. WRONG. I need edges to trade. Now I only listen to people like Kevin, Jim Simon, and any other profitable traders. So far, I only see algo traders have the edge. I do not see discretionary traders showing any thing, just lots of talking and posting ideas. I only listen to algo traders now.

Thank you everyone.

I hope one day, I can get profitable and stay profitable, so I can help other traders. I want dare help traders now cause I make no money.


Thanks for the kind words, BUT...

Please do not put me on a level with Jim Simons. I doubt he posts HYPOTHETICAL equity curves on trading forums, he is too busy counting his billions.

Second, be skeptical of everything you see and read. My equity curve doesn't prove much - it alone certainly does not prove I am a profitable trader (or not). "Hypothetical" definitely applies here, as does the phrase "past performance is not indicative of future results."

Third, success and advice-giving are 2 different things. Tom Brady has gotten excellent advice from a few QB coaches, none of whom won a Super Bowl, let alone 6 of them! I've gotten plenty of good advice from people who probably never made money trading. (I judge the advice itself, not the person or their motives.)

Fourth, algo trading is far from the Holy Grail, just as is any other type of trading. The sad fact is most people lose, regardless of how they trade.

Finally, I worry about you jumping to a new approach too quickly. A few days ago you said you were only going to follow educators who've shown you the most recent 1 year of brokerage statements. (I have never shown any statements like that). Now you say you only listen to algo traders now. That is a rapid switch in thinking. I'm not sure either is the answer for you.

My advice: step back from trading for a few months, live or otherwise. Take a break, clear your head. You'll be amazed at how your perspective will change when you are no longer in the thick of it.

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 WoodyFox 
Orlando, Florida
 
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goodoboy View Post
Once again, thank you kevinkdog for posting this wonderful curve.

This is how it is done everyone, if you want to help the traders, you have to show the proof of live trades and equity curve first, then let the trader work extremely hard to find their own edge(s). You can not give advice and be unprofitable yourself.

Thanks for all your kind help kevindog and I am definitely reading your book as we discussed. I was an idot for not reading 4 years ago, but I did not know any better and thought I can do it alone, listening to my unprofitable trading friends. WRONG. I need edges to trade. Now I only listen to people like Kevin, Jim Simon, and any other profitable traders. So far, I only see algo traders have the edge. I do not see discretionary traders showing any thing, just lots of talking and posting ideas. I only listen to algo traders now.

Thank you everyone.

I hope one day, I can get profitable and stay profitable, so I can help other traders. I want dare help traders now cause I make no money.

@goodoboy

Some things to point out about the curve. First this shows very little to no evidence of profit? Equity curves by themselves are very limited in information.

Some questions you should ask (Just a few):
...there are no details on type of strategy ( Swing, Breakout, mean reversion, etc.)
...does it use stops, if not what is the MAE per trade? This alone will kill a strategy.
...what about rollover, the curve gives no details of this. (losses or gains)
...Frequency of trades (high commission/slippage)

One thing it does show is nearly a $25,000 drawdown. That is very high considering soybeans. If you are diversified it might not be to bad, but if you like the heat then that is different.

I use maintenance as a guide to drawdown, but that is me.

So my point is, until you know more about an equity curve...its really just a squiggly line.

Maybe @kevinkdog will answer these questions for you, I asked but have not seen a response yet.

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 kanepa 
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@goodoboy

Kevin's book is a good read.

Also wanted to point out that after making a real strategy with an edge to make profit in market, you will be also required to be mentally ready. As drawdowns and winning streaks will get you emotionally charged, a pre determined action plan is required for you to stick with your strategy in both good and bad times. Good luck and thanks for sharing.

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goodoboy
Houston
 
 
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WoodyFox View Post
@goodoboy

Some things to point out about the curve. First this shows very little to no evidence of profit? Equity curves by themselves are very limited in information.

Some questions you should ask (Just a few):
...there are no details on type of strategy ( Swing, Breakout, mean reversion, etc.)
...does it use stops, if not what is the MAE per trade? This alone will kill a strategy.
...what about rollover, the curve gives no details of this. (losses or gains)
...Frequency of trades (high commission/slippage)

One thing it does show is nearly a $25,000 drawdown. That is very high considering soybeans. If you are diversified it might not be to bad, but if you like the heat then that is different.

I use maintenance as a guide to drawdown, but that is me.

So my point is, until you know more about an equity curve...its really just a squiggly line.

Maybe @kevinkdog will answer these questions for you, I asked but have not seen a response yet.

Hello WoodyFox,

You said a few days ago, you was going to show me some equity curves of intraday trading systems. Please show these curves please when you get some free time.

Thank you WoodyFox

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goodoboy
Houston
 
 
Posts: 209 since Dec 2016
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kevinkdog View Post
Thanks for the kind words, BUT...

Please do not put me on a level with Jim Simons. I doubt he posts HYPOTHETICAL equity curves on trading forums, he is too busy counting his billions.

Second, be skeptical of everything you see and read. My equity curve doesn't prove much - it alone certainly does not prove I am a profitable trader (or not). "Hypothetical" definitely applies here, as does the phrase "past performance is not indicative of future results."

Third, success and advice-giving are 2 different things. Tom Brady has gotten excellent advice from a few QB coaches, none of whom won a Super Bowl, let alone 6 of them! I've gotten plenty of good advice from people who probably never made money trading. (I judge the advice itself, not the person or their motives.)

Fourth, algo trading is far from the Holy Grail, just as is any other type of trading. The sad fact is most people lose, regardless of how they trade.

Finally, I worry about you jumping to a new approach too quickly. A few days ago you said you were only going to follow educators who've shown you the most recent 1 year of brokerage statements. (I have never shown any statements like that). Now you say you only listen to algo traders now. That is a rapid switch in thinking. I'm not sure either is the answer for you.

My advice: step back from trading for a few months, live or otherwise. Take a break, clear your head. You'll be amazed at how your perspective will change when you are no longer in the thick of it.

Thank you kevinkdog,

Well said. I like your advice and book.

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 WoodyFox 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Trading: Futures
 
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goodoboy View Post
Hello WoodyFox,

You said a few days ago, you was going to show me some equity curves of intraday trading systems. Please show these curves please when you get some free time.

Thank you WoodyFox

Sorry, I will not be posting in this thread. You have been getting advice from @kevinkdog, so I would continue doing that.

Thanks,

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