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Is your daily return predetermined?


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Is your daily return predetermined?

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  #1 (permalink)
New York City + NY/United States
 
 
Posts: 225 since Sep 2018
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The market cannot be controlled by us, it will move however it's going to move whether we trade that day or not. Only thing we can control is what we are going to do in response.

So does this mean at the start of any day, your planned strategy already has a predetermined return for that day, you just don't know it yet?

If so, does that mean attempts at planning out your trading day are futile?

So then all we can do everyday is trade according to the plan. Maintain the patience to not enter early, and the conviction to pull the trigger to not miss the move. As long as errors are eliminated and you trade perfectly according to your strategy, then you should not get angry if the trade becomes a loss, because that loss was predetermined before you made the trade anyway.

The only thing you can do is after a few weeks of trading according to the your strategy and adjusting for errors, decide if the strategy has an edge, or if it's time to try again with a different strategy.


P.S. just finished watching season 1 of Dark on Netflix, great show, I'm obsessed.

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  #2 (permalink)
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planetkill View Post
The market cannot be controlled by us, it will move however it's going to move whether we trade that day or not. Only thing we can control is what we are going to do in response.

So does this mean at the start of any day, your planned strategy already has a predetermined return for that day, you just don't know it yet?

If so, does that mean attempts at planning out your trading day are futile?

So then all we can do everyday is trade according to the plan. Maintain the patience to not enter early, and the conviction to pull the trigger to not miss the move. As long as errors are eliminated and you trade perfectly according to your strategy, then you should not get angry if the trade becomes a loss, because that loss was predetermined before you made the trade anyway.

The only thing you can do is after a few weeks of trading according to the your strategy and adjusting for errors, decide if the strategy has an edge, or if it's time to try again with a different strategy.


P.S. just finished watching season 1 of Dark on Netflix, great show, I'm obsessed.

Interesting question. It may even be rhetorical. I suppose it depends on how automated your strategies are. If your strategies are totally automated, then obviously you won't control the outcome on a daily basis. Your outcome is determined by the accuracy of your anticipated expectancy, and the level of preparation you have invested beforehand. If you are a purely discretionary trader, the the outcome of the day is much more determined by how well you react to the market, how you feel that day, how much sleep you got the previous night, whether you just had a fight with your spouse, whether you are distracted more than usual, how you are reacting to the string of losses you have just encountered, whether you are over confident about the string of profits you have just encountered, and any number of other factors. It's all a matter of preparation.

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  #3 (permalink)
Pamplona Spain
 
 
Posts: 9 since Jan 2020


Sorry, but I didn't pay much attention to your post. Most of all, I got caught up in the last sentence. I'm very fond of the Dark TV series myself. This show from episode one is fascinating with its mysterious plot. You try to get into the intertwined lines of life, to figure out who is a father from the past or a son in the present, how the time machine works, who created it, you worry for the protagonist when he tries to change the course of events in the past, but no one is able to do it. New heroes appear, and you can't keep track of their time movements. And then the series ends and you're guessing at the end of the series - "what just happened?"

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  #4 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Tallinn, Estonia
 
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Basically yes.

Lets say daily ADR(200) = x
and its possible to make daily x / 10

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  #5 (permalink)
Braunschweig Germany
 
 
Posts: 12 since Dec 2019

You cannot determone your daily return but you can make an estimation. If you are a good trader then it will always fall within your estimation but at times it may not especially if you are having a bad day. Sometimes your trades will not work for you. Either way you can still be where you want to be interms of returns.

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July 19, 2020


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