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Really afraid to trade?
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Really afraid to trade?

  #41 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Niles, Illinois, United States
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Strategy runner
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 3 since Aug 2010
Thanks: 0 given, 3 received

The ah-ha moment for me was truly understanding expectancy. Now I take 2 trades per day -ES. Opening and afternoon push, period.

2 point stop, 4 point target with 55% win ratio.

No indicators, single time frame, single signal that works for me.

Works out to 44 trades per month, 24 winners for 97 points, 20 losers for 40 points. Net 37 points, 4.5 points on commissions paid-net, net 32.5 points. 3 ticks expectancy per trade- winners or losers.

Good luck to all.

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  #42 (permalink)
Elite Member
Chicago, IL
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: Kinetick Ninja Trader <7>
Broker/Data: Ninja & IB
Favorite Futures: YM & Equities & Options & Mutual Funds
 
Posts: 174 since Jun 2010
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Ryanb View Post
I
i have 6 markets on my screens, that makes it for me easier to trade (i mainly trade 2 markets)

I used to have all the markets up like that, and would get killed on days where the correlations were off. How do you handle that scenario?

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  #43 (permalink)
Elite Member
Netherlands
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: none
Favorite Futures: Stocks
 
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mainstream View Post
I used to have all the markets up like that, and would get killed on days where the correlations were off. How do you handle that scenario?

Most of the time the correlations are gone when there was some kind of news, and thats what i`m also following.
Multiple markets give me more feel for the way it moves, if the correlations are off then my feeling is not good and so i don't trade.

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  #44 (permalink)
Elite Member
Chicago, IL
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: Kinetick Ninja Trader <7>
Broker/Data: Ninja & IB
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Maineiac View Post
Opening and afternoon push, period.

2 point stop, 4 point target with 55% win ratio.

Why such a big stop? Especially for the AM trade? Another good time is the European close.

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  #45 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Niles, Illinois, United States
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Strategy runner
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 3 since Aug 2010
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mainstream View Post
Why such a big stop? Especially for the AM trade? Another good time is the European close.

A tighter stop just was giving money away, getting stopped out way too often with AM volatility.

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  #46 (permalink)
Elite Member
Bala, PA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Mirus, IB
Favorite Futures: SPY, Oil, Euro
 
monpere's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,858 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 300 given, 3,275 received


Maineiac View Post
The ah-ha moment for me was truly understanding expectancy. Now I take 2 trades per day -ES. Opening and afternoon push, period.

2 point stop, 4 point target with 55% win ratio.

No indicators, single time frame, single signal that works for me.

Works out to 44 trades per month, 24 winners for 97 points, 20 losers for 40 points. Net 37 points, 4.5 points on commissions paid-net, net 32.5 points. 3 ticks expectancy per trade- winners or losers.

Good luck to all.

I had the same ah-ha moment, when I got the gumption to change my trading plan to go from a 1:1 reward/risk ratio to 3:1. My struggling, barely break even methodology turned profitable overnight. With a 1:1 ratio, I was always timid and fearful of every trade, so I would skip trades out of fear, and if the skipped trade was a winner, I would get really frustrated and go into revenge mode. So, I decided to dump the discretion, go purely mechanical, and take every signal once I observed that a 3:1 reward/risk ratio would result in about the same win/loss ratio as the 1:1 reward/risk.

I trade the YM with a 4 tick stop, and 12 tick target period, all in all out, I don't care what the market does, every trade gives me 12 ticks, or takes 4 ticks. Now, knowing that my system is a bit less then 50% accurate with 1:1 ratio, with the same accuracy at a 3:1 ratio, I now rely solely on the math, and take every signal without fear or hesitation, because I know that my scalping system which generates about 20 trades/day, I would need to have 16 losers out of 20 (which has never happened) to have a losing day. So, in the end, I think fear is only an issue for discretionary traders. If you are mechanical, and trust the expectancy of your system, you should be able to let go of your fear, and pull the trigger without a 2nd thought.

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  #47 (permalink)
Elite Member
Chicago, IL
 
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monpere View Post
my scalping system which generates about 20 trades/day.


That is a lot of trades in a day! What is your TICK goal??

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  #48 (permalink)
Elite Member
Bala, PA, USA
 
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mainstream View Post
That is a lot of trades in a day! What is your TICK goal??

I have a small account, so I need to trade cheaply, hence I chose the YM, and trade 1 contract. I generally reach my daily goal by noon, and then switch to sim. Because of my personality, I have to be a scalper, I can't sit in a trade for even 15 minutes or I get jittery. I am most comfortable pulling the trigger a lot, but be in trades for a very short time. My average trades last less then 90 seconds. That is just perfect for who I am. I am thinking of moving to the CL, I think my average trade time will probably be even less, but I need to study the CL some more before I put the big boy pants on

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  #49 (permalink)
Student Of The Markets
New York
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Favorite Futures: E-mini S&P 500
 
Posts: 753 since Aug 2010
Thanks: 448 given, 433 received

The CL is not for small accounts. Margins are much higher compared to ES and YM. 2000/1 compared to 500/1 and I would recommend 10,000/1 minimum if you're new to trading.

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  #50 (permalink)
Elite Member
Bala, PA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Mirus, IB
Favorite Futures: SPY, Oil, Euro
 
monpere's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,858 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 300 given, 3,275 received



itrade2win View Post
The CL is not for small accounts. Margins are much higher compared to ES and YM. 2000/1 compared to 500/1 and I would recommend 10,000/1 minimum if you're new to trading.

I tried out the CL today with my YM strategy. Started trading 8:00am EST, reached my daily goal with 4 winners by 9:08am !!! Looks promising! Have to try this beast out some more and see. I know the market has a way to lure you in, just to then grab you and spank you . Gonna trade it the rest of the day in Sim.

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