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are you over leveraged?
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are you over leveraged?

  #11 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Big Mike View Post
Thanks. I understand what you are saying now.

You don't think the risk % per trade is important? Can you share in your scenario what the risk % per trade is?

Mike

I created below the spreadsheets below to shows the risk and what I am pitching. There are two setup. The one on top will add 1 contract for every $2000 profit per contract. So if he is current trading 5 contracts, he will need to accumulate $10k with this 5 contract before he can start trading 6 contracts. However, instead of making $10k, he loss $4 (half of 8k profit going from 4 to 5 contracts), he will reducing his trading size to 4 contracts. The profit/loss will start over when he add/reduce contract. So if he go from 5 to 4 contracts, he has to accumulate another 8k before he can allow to trade 5 contracts again.

There are 4 initial accounts: 10k, 20k, 50k and 100k. All start with 1 contract and will risk $100/contracts. As you can see below, none of then will risk 2% per trade. Assume trader never need to reduce size.


Add 1 contract for every $2000 profit per contract

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Add 1 contract for every $5000 profit per contract (for comparision with 2k)
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  #12 (permalink)
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cw30000 View Post
I created below the spreadsheets below to shows the risk and what I am pitching. There are two setup. The one on top will add 1 contract for every $2000 profit per contract. So if he is current trading 5 contracts, he will need to accumulate $10k with this 5 contract before he can start trading 6 contracts. However, instead of making $10k, he loss $4 (half of 8k profit going from 4 to 5 contracts), he will reducing his trading size to 4 contracts. The profit/loss will start over when he add/reduce contract. So if he go from 5 to 4 contracts, he has to accumulate another 8k before he can allow to trade 5 contracts again.

There are 4 initial accounts: 10k, 20k, 50k and 100k. All start with 1 contract and will risk $100/contracts. As you can see below, none of then will risk 2% per trade. Assume trader never need to reduce size.

I am afraid that this all quite theoretical. There are no trades with a $ 100,- risk. You will get whipsawed all the time. You cannot add 1 contract per $ 2000,- of profits, as the risk is at least 5 times higher than acceptable. The spreadsheets only show profit columns and no loss columns.

The principle of fixed-fractional betting also has its shortcomings. Your losing bets will have a larger size than your winning bets.

For a realistic simulation you should not calculate the size of your wins, but your risk-of-ruin. I recommend studying Ralph Vince: The Mathematics of Money Management as a starting point.

Sorry for being quite frank. The principles you showed are correct, but do not catch the point.

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  #13 (permalink)
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Fat Tails View Post
I am afraid that this all quite theoretical. There are no trades with a $ 100,- risk. You will get whipsawed all the time. You cannot add 1 contract per $ 2000,- of profits, as the risk is at least 5 times higher than acceptable. The spreadsheets only show profit columns and no loss columns.

The principle of fixed-fractional betting also has its shortcomings. Your losing bets will have a larger size than your winning bets.

For a realistic simulation you should not calculate the size of your wins, but your risk-of-ruin. I recommend studying Ralph Vince: The Mathematics of Money Management as a starting point.

Sorry for being quite frank. The principles you showed are correct, but do not catch the point.

I never say it will be easy. If it's that easy, everyone will able to make it. We all agreed there is more than just having the best setup to make it out of this business. This is the assumption that everything is being perfect. Trade the best setup and have discipline to follow plan. Able to control emotion when big winners and losers come. Able to claim yourself when market take out your and it takes off without you, etc...

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