Why can't I? You have no idea what timeframe the person on the opposite side of your trade is trading from.

I'll try one more time to explain, obviously I am not explaining myself well enough.

Take the Dec 2020 ES contract. It started trading 9/18/2019 at 2979. It ended trading 12/18/2020 at 3728.

This contract had millions of buyers and sellers during this period of time, trading all manner of timeframes, durations, etc.

Yet, at the end of it all, if you were to add up the profits/losses from all the long positions, and subtract all the profit/losses from all the short positions, you'd net to zero. In other words, a zero sum game.

There will be people who were long at some point who made money, and there will be other who were short at some point and made money. And vice versa. But the sum is still zero.

Do you agree with this, or not?


(Note in stocks this is not true, because stocks are a wealth creation device. Futures are a wealth transfer device).

I think you've already agreed my example is valid and I've already agreed that the market as a whole is a zero sum game. So, I'm honestly not sure what we are debating?

You weren't initially agreeing with the zero sum idea, you edited that in later.

But don't kid yourself - every dollar you make in futures absolutely comes out of someone else's pocket. That is the only way it can be.

I never disagreed with it - it wasn’t ever part of my premise. I only edited my post when I realized that is what you were referencing. My comments were only about the other side of a person’s trade. Glad we’re on the same page now.

As long as you believe your earlier statement "I think we are starting to get away from the original premise which was if I am making money in a trade, the trader on the other end of my profit making transaction must be losing. That is simply not true."

we will never agree on this. Sorry.

I am not sure how you can agree the scenario I presented is valid, i.e. both traders made money, and not agree with what you just quoted. C'est la vie, all good with me either way. I appreciate the dialogue and we can just drop it.

I agree both Traders A and B could make money, but your example is incomplete, and misses a whole section of the overall picture:

Your example:

Trader A = Long on Jan 6th at 10 AM, exit Jan 8th at 1:30 PM >> profit of 76 points
Trader B = short on Jan 8th at 10 AM, exit Jan 8th at 1:30 PM >> profit of 20 points


Look at what happened during the time when BOTH traders held opposite positions, from 10 AM to 130 PM

Trader A Long - lost 20 points
Trader B Short - gained 20 points

That is zero sum


What happened before Trader B entered the market?

Trader A made 96 points by being long from Jan 6th at 10 Am to Jan 8th at 10 AM. Someone else (or maybe multiple people, who knows) held the short side, and all together during that time the short side lost 96 points. The holder of that short is Trader C, who you left out of your example. Again the net is zero. Again zero sum.


So, your example:

Trader A: gained 76 points
Trader B: gained 20 points
Trader C (or multiple Traders C): (whom you left out of your example, but nevertheless was present on the short side for part of this event): lost 96 points

Zero sum.

And I agree with all of that. The comment I was originally commenting on was "when you win, someone loses. You cannot win in trading without taking what could potentially be food out of someone else's mouth." In the scope of that profitable transaction, the trader on the opposite side of it could also be profitable. You agreed with that as well. That was my only point (and also trying to help people in the process, i.e. those who have guilt about making money from trading).

But every dollar you make trading futures DOES take a dollar out of someone else's pocket. That is the nature of the game.