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New to Futures, but Hitting the Wall


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New to Futures, but Hitting the Wall

  #51 (permalink)
London
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: cqg integrated,ninjatrade
Trading: Futures and forex
 
Posts: 52 since Apr 2015
Thanks: 6 given, 67 received


Wizard3ootz View Post
So, itís probably my third week trading futures (day trading) and sadly, Iím not doing so well. Iíve gotten trapped a lot, with a great deal of false breakouts, making bad decisions, like chasing a breakout, and then putting in a limit order in way too high on the move, and then watching it pull back and getting f******. Mostly, though, itís perhaps overtrading, getting eaten up by commissions, and all of the tiny losses that are accumulating massively.

Iím feeling pretty defeated. I know I need to lower my position sizes. At this point, I had considered walking away, and taking my money off the table (Iím down about 1300)

Donít get me wrong. I have made some beautiful trades. I caught two gorgeous second entries this morning.

That being said, I really need to find some better direction. I was pretty damn successful in my stock trading, and I have never allowed myself to lose this much money in my life. However, Iím getting to the point where something has to change, otherwise, this is clearly a poor investment.

From you experienced/profitable traders out there, if you have any solid advice you might give, please feel free to pass it my way. I study/read about the market probably 25 hours a week, so I am in no way lacking dedication/motivation.


Is this 3 weeks in total or 3 weeks on a live account.? if its 3 weeks in live then You probably went live at the wrong time of the year. Its holiday season and the markets get very rangebound. if its 3 weeks in total and you are asking these types of questions this early, then how long are you expecting to be able to get some consistency?

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  #52 (permalink)
san diego, ca
 
Experience: None
Platform: ThinkorSwim
Trading: YM, ES, NQ
 
Posts: 2 since Sep 2019
Thanks: 29 given, 0 received


DebayanSen View Post
What helped me were the following

1)Futurestrader71's channel and daily pre market analysis and predictions . Watch as many as you can and learn about volume profile.
2)Learn about market profile from forums and JIm dalton's free online videos . Take notes
3) The above 2 are discretionary and its really tough if not impossible to put them in a code and backtest . BUT with everything else , learn about normal distributions and probabilities and conditional probabilities and try to apply them. For example , FT71 has backtested and found out that 70% of the time ES breaks overnight low or overnight high and if one side is broken,the probability of the test of the other side is 24% ...(Don't remember the exact figures). But try to find patterns and make hypothesis .
4)GET PROPER INFRASTRUCTURE .Daytrading without profiles , realtime tape and orderflow is similart to bringing a knife to a gunfight . Also learn to find patterns in orderflow .
5)NOTE THAT CONTEXT IS HUGE IN TRADING. Market profile volume profile will provide context.Statistical analysis and orderflow analysis will confirm the context and your psychology will let you enter the trade.
6)I have had my analysis correct 10/10 days and still lost 80% of my capital due to risk management . NEVER TRADE WITH "ALL IN ALL OUT CONCEPT". ALWAYS SCALE OUT .Tilts the probability in your side. Don't risk too much .
7)When you have got a grip on all of the above , try to learn about volatility,vix ,greeks , Volatility skew and implied volatility percentile . These words sound heavy but are not.
8)Regardless of how strong a single information is , always ALWAYS TRADE CONFLUENCE OF INFORMATION.
9)Don't waste your time reading books . Except some books on options and a book by pivotboss ochoa , most are either dated or do very little to enhance your trading.
10)STAY AWAY FROM ANYONE OR ANY POSTS MENTIONING ARBITRARY/POPULAR MOVING AVERAGES
All the best

Hi DebayanSen, Would you be able to recommend options books that might be worth reading? Thanks!

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  #53 (permalink)
huntington beach, ca usa
 
 
Posts: 2 since May 2019
Thanks: 0 given, 3 received


You might try getting a little education on trading techniques. Check out Trading Mission and Base Camp Trading. Both have trading rooms but are geared toward teaching how to trade and donít expect you to be in their rooms forever. There are tons of ďgurusĒ out there that are just after your money, but these two are legit. And no, I donít work for either but have learned a lot from both. Good luck.

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  #54 (permalink)
Agoura Hills, CA USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation&Multicharts
Broker: TradeStation
Trading: Futures & Equities
 
numberjuani's Avatar
 
Posts: 123 since Apr 2019
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Learn to code and backtest


Sent using the futures.io mobile app

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  #55 (permalink)
Reno, Nevada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ZN, ZB, CL
 
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numberjuani View Post
Learn to code and backtest


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This is key to becoming a competent trader. The Ninja Wizard is easy to use as long as your setup isn't too complicated.

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  #56 (permalink)
san antonio, tex
 
 
Posts: 73 since Nov 2014
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Paper trade. Do it for 6 months because something like 90% of new traders quit after 6 months. That way after 6 months you will be more experienced than 90% of the traders.

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  #57 (permalink)
Market Wizard
west palm beach florida usa
 
Experience: Advanced
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Think about whether you really want to spend years and years trying to master trading, since very few people are ever able to make any money at it. In almost every endeavor out there..you can usually find people who can prove they are successful. Finding a verified profitable retail trader is about as rare as a Sasquatch sighting. Something to consider.

Failure is not an option
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  #58 (permalink)
London uk
 
 
Posts: 42 since Nov 2019
Thanks: 14 given, 9 received

Find it such a struggle to grasp the idea that all / sig portion of retail traders are not profitable. If is true for you then you are using too much leverage and/or trying to gamble, but even a gamble is 50/50 so outside of transaction costs there still should be a balance of positive traders.... fix the too much leverage scenario by defining a size/stdev scaled for your risk appetite (reducing your size) and keep to those risk limits... Trading is a long run game not quick cash.... then always keep to your stops and profit targets unless the information truly changes the market dynamics. Keep up with trends and fundamental info, don't try to scalp for a tick or two. I'm not saying its easy but it's also not a nobody wins game. And lastly if you are hitting a wall reduce size again or take a time out but when you come back make sure it's tiny size to build confidence again.
Really love to hear outside of high leverage / too much risk why retail traders can't be profitable.

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  #59 (permalink)
Super Moderator
Sarasota FL
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Sierra Chart
Trading: ES, YM
 
bobwest's Avatar
 
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bxman View Post
Find it such a struggle to grasp the idea that all / sig portion of retail traders are not profitable.

...

Really love to hear outside of high leverage / too much risk why retail traders can't be profitable.

Making bad decisions.

Seriously, the experiences of a great number of traders on this forum over the years bear out the fact that trading profitably is hard.

I don't know your experience, but the best way to understand this is to get into the game with some (small amount of) cash money and see how it goes. Then, work to understand your trades and why you took them, as well as you can, and improve. Try not to lose too much in the meantime.

Rinse and repeat.

A good idea is to start a trade journal here and document your trade decisions. Ask for feedback; you will get it and it will help.

Now, if you are already a successful professional trader making all your income and paying all your bills from trading, then obviously you will simply understand that this advice is not meant for you, and maybe you've been successful for so long that you just don't remember when it was hard for you.

Otherwise, yes, learning to trade is a challenge.

I don't mean this in any way as a put-down. But experienced traders generally understand all this.

I hope you are doing well, and that you can find new ways to improve your game. People here do want others to succeed at it, and will help when they can. It just takes time.

Bob.

When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
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  #60 (permalink)
London uk
 
 
Posts: 42 since Nov 2019
Thanks: 14 given, 9 received


Ha, agree... staying away from bad decisions is a good one. Guess all I was getting at is its possible, def not easy and does take time/energy... But in the end its still possible and not like searching for gold at the end of a rainbow or finding sasquatch in the forest.

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