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Millionaire in 10 weeks & Conversation with broker


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Millionaire in 10 weeks & Conversation with broker

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  #1 (permalink)
 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013

Hi guys, been a member of Big Mike's forum since 2013 but didn't post anything back then. That's about to change today because I am leaving my present broker (TradeStation) and moving to a new Futures broker (AMP Futures) trading Micro eMini Russell 2000 contracts.

What I'm about to post was one of the most popular thread on the TradeStation forum with over 25,000 views back in 2014. However, over there, there are A LOT of negative people bitching at anyone with bold ideas, they make fun and ridicule newbies all the time so that's why, even though I was a member of that forum back in 2005, I never much posted anything there except that Millionaire in 10 weeks thread that attracted a lot of people.

Basically, in 2014, I had a chat with my previous broker and the conversation went like this...

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = BEGIN CONVERSATION = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =


- Merlin: At a leverage of 100:1, I can start trading a Standard Lot (100,000 Units) for only $1,300...correct?

- Broker: Correct.

- Merlin: So this means that by risking only $1,300 of my trading account, and I make say 26.5 pips today, then each one of those pips will pay me $10 each... correct?

- Broker: Correct.

- Merlin: So this means that I would have made $265 (26.5 pips X $10 each pip) out of a $1,300 Initial Investment. Correct?

- Broker: Correct.

- Merlin: If you do the math, this $265 profit daily is exactly a 20% ROI on the $1,300 Initial Investment.

- Broker: Ok

- Merlin: So this means that if I make this daily 26.5 pips profit, at the end of the 5 trading day, I will have made a profit of $1,300 all from an initial investment of $1,300 so in other words, a 100% ROI per WEEK???

- Broker: Hmm, interesting pov here but I think you are right.

- Merlin: Now did you know that at a 100% ROI per week, you can turn that initial investment of $1,300 into over $1 Million in just 10 weeks if you keep reinvesting the profit?

- Broker: Maybe that's possible, although I have never seen a client do it for real.

- Merlin: Yeah I know, everytime I say the "M" word (Million) people either start laughing or tell me how crazy I am but when I ask them if its possible to make 25 pips each day then they all say "Huh, yeah, I know many traders who do that". So since many traders can do a 20% daily with their 25 pips daily, why not continuously reinvest their gains to go for the Million in 10 weeks?

- Broker: Good point. That's because fear plays a big role in trading. Maybe they think that because the numbers get bigger, they will lose more.

- Merlin: Yeah, that's my assessment too. So even though it is possible to get that daily 25 pips and make that 100% ROI weekly, the fear that traders have of losing all those big numbers will stop them from doubling down each week and go for the Million in 10 weeks?

- Broker: Looks like it.

- Merlin: Alright, thank you, it was nice to get the pov of a broker here. So maybe I'm not that crazy after all. hehe It may be VERY BOLD but still doable so have a nice day sir.

- Broker: You too.

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = END OF CONVERSATION = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =

Again that was back in 2014 but today in 2019, this conversation could be about the new Micro Futures.

Each Micro Contract of the Russell 2000 Futures (Symbol: M2K) cost me $25 in intraday margin at my new broker. As you may know, the tick value of the M2K is 50 cents so if you make 50 ticks at $0.50 each then you would make a $25 profit out of an initial investment of $25 so just like in the conversation above with Forex, you would make a 100% R.O.I.

I know that it's possible because I just did that yesterday on a sim with my new broker (more on this later) just to test the grounds.

So if you don't believe me, just start a chat session with AMP Futures and ask them if their Intraday margin is really $25 for a M2K contract and if this contract pays 50 cents per tick so 50 ticks later (5 pts) whether or not you will have made a profit of $25 or not and look what they will reply.

Now I have found the money management diagram that I posted on the TradeStation forum that started the frenzy and here it is...

Basically, it goes like this...

Back then, it was about Forex Standard Lot costing $1,300 per lot but for this example, I shrunk it to $1,000 a piece.

The idea was to open a Forex account with $10,000 and split it into 10 blocks of $1,000 each. Since we always start with 1 (green $1,000 block), that will leave 9 orange blocks as backup in case we lose the green one.

As mentioned above in the broker conversation, by making those 26.5 pips per trading day ($265) X 5 days per week, you would end up with a profit of $1,300 enough to be able to double your Forex lot. On the diagram below, the green $1,000 would have now doubled itself and we would now be in the $2,000 column.

You would double that way 3 times (from 1K to 2K, 2K to 4K and then 4K to 8K) and then what you would do is split the 8K into 2 blocks of 4K leaving one as a backup (orange 4K) and the other green 4K to restart the 3 doublings again.

What this does is creates a safety net under each level so that if you fail during the climb, you would have all kinds of orange backups to hold you back at these high levels instead of losing it all and go back to the $1,000 level.



Of course, at that time, all the negative people who call themselves "Realists" were laughing about this and calling me a moron and telling me about the HUUUUUUUUUUGE DRAWDOOOOOOOONWWWWS, etc, etc... until a guy named Tim took his eMini S&P trading system and programmed my Million $ doubling Money Management Technique into it and backtested it to see if it was possible and guess what, IT IS POSSIBLE.

He calculated all the slippage and commissions costs and posted these screenshots...


Quoting 
Hi Brian, here is the full report less trade list
You are correct about liquidity. The highest amount of shares purchased is 656 shares.
I'm going to add code to limit the amount of shares per Merlins chart. This will extend the time it takes to hit the 1 M target.










Now by posting this, Tim kinda confirmed that my "crazy 1K to 1M Climb" idea was doable after all but there were still 2 main problems ahead...

The first one is that even if we have the stomach to double all the way to the million $ level, will we be able to get in and get out FAST when you trade 50, 100, 200 or 500+ contracts???

Thankfully, Tim answered that one too by locking down the contracts to only 18 ES contracts. Despite that, he was able to backtest it again on his system and these are the performance he reported...


Quoting 
Ok, I choked down the number of shares to a maximum of 18 shares to hit the $1000 to 1 million target in 10 weeks.







So that kinda solve the liquidity problem that we may have by starting to trade big numbers of Futures contracts. If you think you don't have the stomach to trade 10 M2K (Micro Russell) contracts and then 100+ RTY (Mini Russell) contracts then you can always lock your contracts to 18 and still be able to reach the Million $ mark within 10 weeks.

However, there is a 2nd problem and this is the one that will stall everybody include me and this is it...

Tim was able to go to the million $ because he had a "Killer Trading System" that would make him win more $ than he could lose where he was able to use my Money Management and double his ES contracts all the way to the Million $ but...

NOT EVERYONE HAS A SUPER PROFITABLE TRADING SYSTEM LIKE TIM HAD....

Yes, with the M2K futures, if you make 5 pts, you will make a profit of $25 out of an original investment of $25 (M2K Intraday Margin) and make a 100% ROI but what if you LOSE those 5 pts??? That's right, you get a 100% DRAWDOWN.

Sure you got those orange backups at each level you reach but still, you need a good trading system to begin with or you are going NOWHERE.

So since 2014, my quest was to find the best trading system and that was easier said than done. Maybe for you guys here, creating from scratch a trading system that will be making your 5 Pts on a daily basis is a piece of cake but that's not my case here and without that killer trading system to make those 5pts, this means no trading, no doubling of contracts and this means no climb to the million.

So this is Part 1 (Money Management), in Part 2 (Trading System), I will tell you guys where I am on the development of the trading system that could help us all climb this Million $ climb.

Here's the link to Part 2:


Cheers,

Merlin


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  #3 (permalink)
 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013


https://futures.io/psychology-money-management/47565-millionaire-10-weeks-conversation-broker-part-1-money-management.html

This is the link to Part 1 (Money Management). I strongly suggest you go back to it and read it FIRST or else you may have trouble understanding this Part 2.

So... as I was saying in Part 1, the climb to the Million $ mark is AAAAALLLLLLLLLLLLL about having a killer Trading System. In fact, I would even say that my Money Management Technique on Part 1 is just 1% of this and the Trading System is 99% of the job.

Part 2 is about my past years of research to find that "Safe" Trading System that will help me climb this Million $ ladder.

Before that, here's a little recap on how we can do this climb to the Million $ mark using the new Micro Futures at my new broker AMP Futures where the intraday margin for the Micro eMini Russell 2000 Contract (Symbol: M2K) is only at $25.

At $25, we already know our initial investment cost and we also know that the Micro Russel (M2K) pays 50 cents per tick it does.

Now it doesn't take a math wiz to do the math here and know that it only takes 50 ticks X $0.50 per tick to make a profit of $25 and since the initial investment is also $25, this means that you have made a nice 100% ROI and can now buy a 2nd M2K contract and trade with 2 M2K contracts instead of just one.

Also mentioned in Part 1, if it's true that we can make 5 pts and get a 100% ROI, it's also true that if we lose 5 pts, we get a 100% DrawDown and that's what I tried to avoid here. yes I had my orange backups at every level but the goal is not to always lose those 5 pts all the time. yeah I know, easier said than done.

To do this, we need to be at the cutting edge of research and using trading tools that weren't even here 5 years ago. It's what I call the difference between "Dinosaur Trading" and "HD Trading".

Dinosaur Trading is trading with old technologies, old trading instruments (Stocks, Forex and even eMinis) and still use charts with old bars like minute bars for example.

HD Trading is using the newest charts super precise and price based bars like Range and Renko bars and using brand new trading instruments like the 2019 Micro Futures because the M2K cost only $25 per contract removing 90+% of the fear of losing money (if you are still afraid of losing a HUUUUUUUGE $25 M2K contract, maybe trading is not for you ;-) ).

Dinosaur Trading Vs HD Trading

What is Dinosaur Trading you ask? Well, no need to Google it because I just invented it. ;-)

Basically it's doing things the old fashion way with outdated bars like Minute Bars. What's wrong with Minute bars you may ask? After all, the big institutions and Elite Traders are still using them.

Well... Minute Bars have 2 the main problems:

1- A minute chart makes too many bars when the price is standing still.

If the price hovers within the same pt on your M2K or RTY chart, chances are if you use a 1 min chart, you will get 60 bars that are all lines up like cute little ducks side by side while in fact all these bars are totally useless because, the market is not moving at all so no need for tons of new bars.

2- When the price explodes, a minute chart doesn't make enough bars.

For example, let's say that the price did 5 pts within 1 minute. This means that you will see 1 HUGE 5 pt white or green candlestick bar. Once again totally useless for traders because when the bar closes, it's too late, you missed the boat, the big move has been done. Even worse, if that 5pt bar turned against you, you not only lost that trade, you lost your entire initial investment. You can't risk losing 5 pts in one trade, you will get wiped out in no time before you can even start this Million $ climb.

Here's a 5 min chart of IBM. Notice that big 5 Minute red bar. Wayyyyyyyy too long for my taste here.



Now let's take a look at Kase Bars which are bars that are based on price movement, NOT ON TIME.

If the price goes above or below that bar, only then a new bar will be created. This means that this big red bar was cut into smaller bars.

This way, when it did that big red bar, instead of making just one big bar, it made many little red bars like on a staircase. This chart below is a 0.1 pt Kase Bar chart.



NOW THIS is what I call "HD Trading".

You can shrink these price based bars (Kase, Range, Momentum, Kagi, Renko) down to 1 tick if you want to.

Here's one based on 3 ticks bars (0.03 Pt Kase bar chart).



Do you see the type of Super High Definition Charts we can have these days? THIS is how we can cut our losses. Most of my losing trades are only 5 ticks or 0.5 pt.

Ok, now that you know how I will reduce my losing trades, let's talk about how I will make those 5 pts that will allow me/us to make the climb to the Million $ mark.


Moving Average Vs Squared Moving Average

We all know that to find the present trend, Moving Averages or MAs are one of the best tool there is and I agree but they have flaws. They lag, at least too much for my taste and it's the same for Simple, Exponential, Hull or Weighted MAs.

I would like to think that I improved on MAs because I am Financial God but sadly for my ego, I didn't do it because I'm smart, I stumbled on it by pure luck, playing with my indicators.

At TradeStation, we can create very cool indicators from scratch even for a basic programmer like me but I didn't know how to program what I had in mind (a Price Based Donchian Channel) so I asked a pro to do it.

He gave me the basic code and I had fun playing with code to modify it and what I did is add a center line on my new Donchian Channel. I then removed the upper and lower bands and that created what I named my Merlin Squared MA.

As you can see here, I have programmed this Squared MA to be light blue on the way up and magenta on the way down. In comparison, I have a 50 Simple MA going down in Red and up in Green.

You can see that my Squared MA stay magenta all the way to the bottom while the 50 MA changes from Red to Green all the time.



Same thing here...

That 50 Simple MA is all over the place.




Here's another screenshot where I have a 100 and 200 MA compared to my white/blue Squared MA.

You can see on the top left that my Squared MA turns from white to blue and 100 and 200 also but they are a bbit late to change their color.

On the way down the 100 and 200 are either too late or too early to change color. Anyway, long story short, I prefer by far my Squared MA to any other types of MAs available on most trading platforms.



So what I did is added a 2nd Squared MA and made one "Bar High" and the 2nd one "bar Low" and that created what I call the Merlin_Cloud as shown below.



Next I added a 2nd cloud, 1 with smaller numbers to have a Short TimeFrame and another for a Medium TF and I got my Merlin_2Clouds indicator to tell me not only the present trend but also showing me where the price is really extended when those "dips" occur within or below my 2 clouds.

Here's yesterday's chart.

You can see in the green circles the best entry points are when the price drops to the level of the clouds.



You can see in Thursday's chart something even better yet...

The price went up not only to the level of the Medium TF Cloud (dark blue) but sometimes even above it and that usually gives us the best entry points possible.



Anyway, long story short, I used my 2 clouds indicator to tell me the trend (white is up and blue is down) so the clouds were white so ready to trade on the Long side and got in a bit late because I arrived about 30 minutes later than the best entry possible around 1,573.



The point of all this is that my M2K contract cost me $25 and with those 5 pts, I was able to make a profit of $25 making me a 100% ROI on my initial investment giving me 2 contracts to trade on the next trading day.

In other words IT IS POSSIBLE to make 5 pts and double your M2K contract.



Any questions?

Merlin

 
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  #4 (permalink)
 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013

Btw guys, I just found out that there is a rule where post cannot be attached to images until I reach a total of 5 posts so I apologize if you can't see all my 10+ screenshots on my 1st post above.

Please let me know if you can see them and if not, then come back later on.

Cheers,

Merlin

 
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 Rrrracer 
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Indianoplace, IN
 
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MerlinWorld View Post
Well, I was trying to write Part 2 but it looks like I cannot attach images to my posts until I reach 5 posts so I guess I will leave this Part 2 on standby and re-edit it when I finally reach those 5 posts.


Why put it in a separate post instead of just adding to the existing Part 1 post?

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 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013


Rrrracer View Post
Why put it in a separate post instead of just adding to the existing Part 1 post?

Because I saw a lot of confusion on the TradeStation forum. Many don't seem to see the different between a Money Management Technique and a Trading System.

The Money Management Technique is what you do AFTER you have made your 100% ROI and doubled your M2K contract and the Trading System is the method that will help you make the 5 pts of profit that will make you this 100% ROI.

If you suck at trading or you lose 1, 2 or more pts per losing trade, you will NEVER be able to do the Money Management Technique on Part 1 so the bulk of our conversation will be on Part 2 - Trading System and how we can make those 5 pts hopefully on a daily basis.

Btw, did you see those screenshots on Part 1 or am I still limited to posting without images here?

 
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 Rrrracer 
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Thanks for explaining. Yes, I saw the screen shots, working well here... and now you have your five posts LOL... carry on


You might include a link to the Part 1 post in the second post on this thread (the Quick Summary post) and vice versa on your other thread -- it can be edited at any time.

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 Big Mike 
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MerlinWorld View Post
Btw guys, I just found out that there is a rule where post cannot be attached to images until I reach a total of 5 posts so I apologize if you can't see all my 10+ screenshots on my 1st post above.

Please let me know if you can see them and if not, then come back later on.

Cheers,

Merlin

FIO attachments (like yours) are available from your first post, only external links are prohibited until post count > 5.

Mike

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 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013


Rrrracer View Post
Thanks for explaining. Yes, I saw the screen shots, working well here... and now you have your five posts LOL... carry on


You might include a link to the Part 1 post in the second post on this thread (the Quick Summary post) and vice versa on your other thread -- it can be edited at any time.

Doing it as you wrote that post my friend ;-)

Part 2 coming soon. Just reload the page from time to time and it should be edited on top of this page 1.

 
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 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013



Big Mike View Post
FIO attachments (like yours) are available from your first post, only external links are prohibited until post count > 5.

Mike


Thanks Mike.

How's the mood over here?

Do we have smart guys here who like complex and progressive thinking or will I be laughed at like on TradeStation?

Also, I cannot change my Avatar. Is that something that I have to wait a bit before I can do this?

 
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 mtzimmer1 
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With accuracy above 50% and avg win/avg loss near 5:1 your goal seems plausible.
Iíve never been able to write a strategy that is anywhere near that level of profitability.
I wish you the best of luck and will follow along with this conversation.

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 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013


mtzimmer1 View Post
With accuracy above 50% and avg win/avg loss near 5:1 your goal seems plausible.
Iíve never been able to write a strategy that is anywhere near that level of profitability.
I wish you the best of luck and will follow along with this conversation.

Stay tuned for Part 2 ;-)

That ratio drops to 10:1 thanks to what I call HD Trading.

 
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 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013

Alright part 2 is updated so just reload the page and you should see it at the top of this page.

I also open with a link to Part 1.

Cheers,

Merlin

 
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 researcher247 
Chicago, IL
 
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So your stops are 0.5 pts (or 5ticks) on the Russell? That is 'noise' - how do you qualify an entry without getting caught up in the 'noise' of up 10ticks/down 10ticks/up 7ticks/down 7ticks w/your Renko bars even when price dips into your favorable cloud(s) area(s)?

At 3 to 1 r:r (say 15tick risk to 50tick target) even w/a win% of 50/50 you would do just fine over time.

The question is are the vast majority of your trades full wins or do cut the 50tick profit target short?

Also, since you are basically buying pb's within a trend - chop sessions will hit you multiple times on those days.

Frankly, the million dollar discussion is rhetorical - pro traders constantly work on proper execution, correct trading psychology, risk control, consistent profit factors over time - the money takes care of itself that way.

Just keep doing that everyday over and over and you could be trading 'size' properly without the million dollar challenge in 10 weeks even being a part of the conversation.

With micro contracts one can be trading regular sized contracts in say 6 months or so and continue to build your business.

But hey - enjoy your journey. You do realize you will be challenged repeatedly in this thread 'cause what you are proposing is (in reality) theoretical in nature 'cause I don't see it happening in reality.

But, records are made to be broken. I'd rather get a million slowly while building professional trading and risk management habits over time - gives you a better chance of keeping the winnings and building on that even more over time.

Cheers!

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 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013


researcher247 View Post
So your stops are 0.5 pts (or 5ticks) on the Russell? That is 'noise' - how do you qualify an entry without getting caught up in the 'noise' of up 10ticks/down 10ticks/up 7ticks/down 7ticks w/your Renko bars even when price dips into your favorable cloud(s) area(s)?

Yeah I know that 5 ticks is nothing to the Russell however, if you look closely, you will find something interesting.

Look at last Friday's chart. You can see in the green rectangle that the bulk of the price was hovering above not only the darkest cloud but also above the lightest one too.

What I deducted from watching my indicator is that you carefully watch where the price IS and where it's NOT. In Friday's case, it's NOT within the 1st cloud so you ONLY enter when you see a dip at that level.

Look at the number of times the priced dipped into the 1st cloud, only 7-8 times. That's NOT being bombarded with dips where the second you get into one, it reverses on you and makes another one and another one and another. I don't know about you but I can handle 7-8 events per trading day.



On Thursday however, the bulk of the price was hovering within the 1st and light blue cloud so unless you want to get whipsawed, YOU DON'T GET IN at every reversal you see within the 1st cloud, instead, you wait that it makes a reversal at the 2nd and darker cloud where reversals occur a handful of times.

In this screenshot, the market only hits the dark cloud once so you would get in at that level. Earlier that morning and later on that day, the price hovered within the 2nd and darkest cloud so you would get in at the peaks OVER that 2nd cloud. here again reversals at that level don't occur too often.



Oh yeah, one more thing.

I found out lately that on Renko charts these bars just loooooooooooooovvvves to make double bottoms or double tops, they're freakin EVERYWHERE!!!

So if you get in at a peak and it reverses on you, you can get out and place your limit order right at that double bottom or double top point and get in at the best entry point on the chart.

You will be surprised as to how often it will work.



In fact when I made my $25 yesterday, it was on my very 1st trade and I caught it after entering at a triple bottom!!!



Btw, I have not invented sliced bread here. I just did my homework for many years to find the best trading system I could find and even then, it's not perfect. That's in fact the main reason why I am posting it here so that maybe you guys will help me improve it.

On almost all my books, CDs, DVDs and even Cassette Tapes I bought throughout the years on trading, they all say the same thing...

"... Find the TREND and then BUY THE DIPS".

Well... these 2 clouds are giving me BOTH. The color of the clouds tell me the trend direction and the price actions regarding those 2 clouds are giving me the deepest of dips while indicators like Stochastic will show up reversals at the 20/80 line on ALL those reversals and THAT is how you get whipsawed.

However if everyone is like you telling me that it will fail then I might as well do like I did at TradeStation and pack my things and go elsewhere.

 
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  #16 (permalink)
 snax 
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Hey @MerlinWorld,

Don't be discouraged.

I will warn you up front that I agree with @researcher247. Please don't take this personally or as an attack, I want you to succeed as I believe most members of this community do.

Here are a couple of my fears, please shoot them down if I've mis-read your post or missed something (its very possible ) :

1) You seem to be creating the "Big Design Up Front" that hasn't weathered the storms of live trading in an uncaring market.

2) Probability & statistics perspective: You are not giving yourself enough "bullets" to test your hypothesis. If you have a substantial account where these trades are a trivial percentage of the account then it is reasonable, but the tone of this post leads me to think this isn't the case.

My $0.00000002 cents (I am a neophyte by comparison to the majority of the members of this site.)

- Creat a Trading journal here and treat it seriously.
- Post your progress, even if it means your strategy falls apart. People will want to help.

I hope you find what you are searching for buddy.

Take care,
Snax

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  #17 (permalink)
 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013


snax View Post
1) You seem to be creating the "Big Design Up Front" that hasn't weathered the storms of live trading in an uncaring market.

The "Storm" in our world is called "CONSOLIDATION" because this is where traders lose back all that they've gained in trending markets where it's easy to make money as long as you don't bet against the trend of course.

One of the crappiest day in July was July 9th, a pure consolidation day like we hate them :-)

And yet, my indicator did ok that day.

First it showed me that the cloud were blue so to only trade on the down side, that's usually the biggest problem for traders (which direction should I get into?).

Second, it only made a few peaks above the darkest cloud. I don't always get to make those 5 pts but at least I don't lose my shirt either with this indicator, at least not on that boring 5pt range day.





snax View Post
2) If you have a substantial account where these trades are a trivial percentage of the account then it is reasonable, but the tone of this post leads me to think this isn't the case.

I think you missed the point mentioned above that with my new broker, my M2K contracts cost me only $25 and even with a HUUUUGEEE investment like $2,500 you get not 1, not 10 but 100 M2K contracts to test with.

Reasonable enough for you?

Oh yeah I almost forgot...

With my new broker, you not only get to buy M2K contracts at only $25 but you also can open a trading account with as little as $100. So if you can't get into trading now, you never will...

I have redone my 1K to 1M climb Money Management diagram based on this $100 and $25 contract. You can deposit $100 and split it into 4 blocks of $25 and start the climb to the Million in 21 doublings.

Now of course when you switch from M2K Micro to RTY Mini contracts and reach levels of 50+ contracts, things will get dicey but like Tim showed in his performance report, you can lock in the contracts to 18 and still get there in 10 weeks.


 
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  #18 (permalink)
 snax 
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MerlinWorld View Post
The "Storm" in our world is called "CONSOLIDATION" because this is where traders lose back all that they've gained in trending markets where it's easy to make money as long as you don't bet against the trend of course.

One of the crappiest day in July was July 9th, a pure consolidation day like we hate them :-)

And yet, my indicator did ok that day.

First it showed me that the cloud were blue so to only trade on the down side, that's usually the biggest problem for traders (which direction should I get into?).

Second, it only made a few peaks above the darkest cloud. I don't always get to make those 5 pts but at least I don't lose my shirt either with this indicator, at least not on that boring 5pt range day.






I think you missed the point mentioned above that with my new broker, my M2K contracts cost me only $25 and even with a HUUUUGEEE investment like $2,500 you get not 1, not 10 but 100 M2K contracts to test with.

Reasonable enough for you?

Oh yeah I almost forgot...

With my new broker, you not only get to buy M2K contracts at only $25 but you also can open a trading account with as little as $100. So if you can't get into trading now, you never will...

I have redone my 1K to 1M climb Money Management diagram based on this $100 and $25 contract. You can deposit $100 and split it into 4 blocks of $25 and start the climb to the Million in 21 doublings.

Now of course when you switch from M2K Micro to RTY Mini contracts and reach levels of 50+ contracts, things will get dicey but like Tim showed in his performance report, you can lock in the contracts to 18 and still get there in 10 weeks.


Good strategy testing with the e-micros first! Good luck, friend!

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  #19 (permalink)
 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013


snax View Post
Good strategy testing with the e-micros first! Good luck, friend!

Yup, not only do it starting with Micros but always first do it during live trading hours just like I did yesterday.

1st trade, 1st doubling, only 20 more to go. :-)


 
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  #20 (permalink)
 mtzimmer1 
Legendary Recovering Method Hopper
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I think you can do it! Start a journal and update it daily with your trades!


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  #21 (permalink)
 ratfink 
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MerlinWorld View Post
Yup, not only do it starting with Micros but always first do it during live trading hours just like I did yesterday.

1st trade, 1st doubling, only 20 more to go. :-)


Wishing you well on the journey, looks like you're using a simulation account (SIM 001) for now right?

Travel Well
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  #22 (permalink)
 tr8er 
Europe
 
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I hope nobody believes in this nonsens.

This is not the first guy with a similar calculation, I wish him all the best, but the show will not last that long.

A trader with 14 year of experience should know that he will fail with this idea.

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  #23 (permalink)
 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013


ratfink View Post
Wishing you well on the journey, looks like you're using a simulation account (SIM 001) for now right?

Yes.

As I mentioned above, I am in transition between TradeStation and my new broker. I don't have my 2 clouds indicator coded in C# Sharp (btw, if anyone know how to program C#, PM me, I will send you my indicator code for conversion) and on my new broker's charting software yet.

That's why the screenshots where you see my 2 clouds are on my TradeStation charting software and the screenshots where I made my trades are on MultiCharts.

Also, you always test live a new idea first on a sim and then with real $.

 
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  #24 (permalink)
 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013


tr8er View Post
I hope nobody believes in this nonsens.

This is not the first guy with a similar calculation, I wish him all the best, but the show will not last that long.

A trader with 14 year of experience should know that he will fail with this idea.

Be more specific and constructive will ya?

Where do you think it will fail. You already have screenshots of backtesting from Tim PROVING TO YOU that it can work on Forex and to do that 100% ROI with Forex we had to do 26.5 pips daily and do that 5 days in a row and he still managed to do it.

I'm on Micro M2K contracts that cost only $25 a piece and all I need is to make 5 pts daily on the Russell 2000 (and I have done it on my very first trade Friday) that makes easily over 100 pts during the day. I'm sure there are traders here who can make 5 pts on the Russell with 1 hand in their back.

So again, don't just spit out negative stuff like "Bah...this is nonsense... he will fail... go home" because that goes 10 feet above my head when people say stupid stuff like that without telling me EXACTLY where will the system fail ESPECIALLY after serious backtesting and screenshots of positive number on a performance report.

Stupid people are the ones arguing with stats. So be smart in your reply or just leave this thread.

 
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  #25 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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MerlinWorld View Post
Stupid people are the ones arguing with stats.

I would suggest you change "stupid people" to "experienced traders".

I encourage you to keep going with your journey & journal(s), you will surely learn something as most everyone does when they journal their trades -- even the most experienced among us.

Just remain respectful of other peoples opinions.

Mike

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  #26 (permalink)
 tr8er 
Europe
 
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Yep I'll leave your post. This is my last post here.

Ok, you call my post stupid, so I guess I'm also allowed to call your answer stupid.

Why the heck do you think you are able to make 5 R2K points each day und this consistent? You couldn't do it the last 14 years. If you were able to do you, you would never come into the situation to open micro-contract account.

Your dream is so far away from the reality, that I know that you will fail and each serious trader will know that.

So once more, good luck and all the best, I will read the postings (till the postings will end in 3 , 4 weeks) and this is my last post here, so I'll not disturb you anymore.

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  #27 (permalink)
 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013


Big Mike View Post
I would suggest you change "stupid people" to "experienced traders".

Mike

Yeah thanks for that Mike.

It's just that I come from TradeStation forum and over there everyone gets trashed for no reason and we have to be aggressive in our comments to avoid being eaten alive by all these negative people.

I came out strong because he flat out said "He will fail with this idea" without giving me any constructive comments and I can't stand people like that.

It's nice to know that there are some forum moderation over here.

 
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  #28 (permalink)
 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013


tr8er View Post
Ok, you call my post stupid,

I didn't call you or your post stupid, I said..

"...Stupid people are the ones arguing with stats."

Can't you see the difference?


tr8er View Post
Why the heck do you think you are able to make 5 R2K points each day und this consistent?

First of all, I NEVER SAID that I was going to make my 5pts every single day of the month here.

I did say that with my 2 clouds indicator, I can more easily find the right trend and the deepest pullbacks and USUALLY... when you catch one of those, making your 5 pts is not a problem.

I never said also that I will always win and never make any losing trades either. That's impossible. However, I did say that by using modern charts and bars, you cut your losses a lot down to below 1 pt, most at or even under 0.5 pt so that would make it a 10:1 ratio strategy where when you lose, you lose peanuts but when you win, you make a lot.

 
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  #29 (permalink)
 wldman 
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...has seen this before. It has been a while, but everyone knows how it ends. Carry on.

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 Big Mike 
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wldman View Post
...has seen this before. It has been a while, but everyone knows how it ends. Carry on.

And everyone typically learns best by their own experience, the kid touches the hot stove no matter how many times the mom says "don't touch it" --- but usually just once

As traders, we seem to really like hot stoves... it takes longer to learn what not to do

In all seriousness, we can offer the best advice in the world, in the most friendly or most serious way, but still at the end of the day the lesson must be learned by the individual, it cannot be learned for him on behalf of another.

Mike

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  #31 (permalink)
 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013


tr8er View Post
I hope nobody believes in this nonsens.

...he will fail with this idea.


wldman View Post
..everyone knows how it ends. Carry on.


Big Mike View Post
it takes longer to learn what not to do
Mike

Well I was afraid of this type of reply thinking that TradeStation was the only forum "infected" with negativity where logic, backtesting and solid positive performance report can't even shut them up.

It looks like this forum is like that too.

Nice to have chatted with you guys, but being called a "Kid who still doesn't know what being burned feels like" by the very own forum administrator, was just the cherry on the top.

As if I was new to trading while In fact I got burned in the past really bad and THAT is the reason why I didn't trade and spent many years perfecting my trading system because that's what smart traders must do, don't get in with a hot head, think, test, backtest, learn more, think again, modify, test, backtest again, get positive performance report after positive performance report before you get in and when you do, don't try real money at first, try a sim and EVEN after all that, if it works, I still get laughed at as if I am a stupid newbie trader!!!!

Just like on TradeStation, if you are the positive type you can always reply to me via PMs because the way I see it, if the admin doesn't even see the potential of all this and calls me an inexperience kid who will soon get burned, I don't believe those threads are recoverable and because like attracts like, pretty soon others will jump in and trash it even more instead of building upon it.

So that's it, I'm out.

I'm gonna put my hands on the stove now...and go change my diaper...at 49.

Cheers,

Merlin

 
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  #32 (permalink)
 Silver Dragon 
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MerlinWorld View Post
Well I was afraid of this type of reply thinking that TradeStation was the only forum "infected" with negativity where logic, backtesting and solid positive performance report can't even shut them up.

It looks like this forum is like that too.

Nice to have chatted with you guys, but being called a "Kid who still doesn't know what being burned feels like" by the very own forum administrator, was just the cherry on the top.

As if I was new to trading while In fact I got burned in the past really bad and THAT is the reason why I didn't trade and spent many years perfecting my trading system because that's what smart traders must do, don't get in with a hot head, think, test, backtest, learn more, think again, modify, test, backtest again, get positive performance report after positive performance report before you get in and when you do, don't try real money at first, try a sim and EVEN after all that, if it works, I still get laughed at as if I am a stupid newbie trader!!!!

Just like on TradeStation, if you are the positive type you can always reply to me via PMs because the way I see it, if the admin doesn't even see the potential of all this and calls me an inexperience kid who will soon get burned, I don't believe those threads are recoverable and because like attracts like, pretty soon others will jump in and trash it even more instead of building upon it.

So that's it, I'm out.

I'm gonna put my hands on the stove now...and go change my diaper...at 49.

Cheers,

Merlin

@MerlinWorld

Every person who has ever taken the path less traveled has received similar feedback. It can be harsh. You need to have a thick skin when it comes to thinking outside the box.

The best thing you can do, instead of leaving, is to just prove us all wrong. Be a Elon Musk, Steve Jobs, Bill Gates and go for it!

Finally, there is nothing like being smacked in the face with a "I told you so!" to keep your ego in and humility in check. I have been on the receiving end of this more times than I can count. The best part is I have learned from every one of them.

Good luck with your trading endeavors!

Robert

nosce te ipsum

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  #33 (permalink)
 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013


Silver Dragon View Post
Every person who has ever taken the path less traveled has received similar feedback. It can be harsh. You need to have a thick skin when it comes to thinking outside the box.

Yeah I know, I have this thick skin, that's why I never stopped working on my Trading System despite all the negativity I got on other trading forums.

However, I was expecting something much better at Big Mike's because this is one of the hottest trading forum so I was expecting the top elite traders to tell me something like "This guy is very close but it's missing you this and that" and not same old same old crap that you hear on most trading forums like "You're a dreamer, a kid who haven't been burned, your system will fail, we all know how it will turn out, etc...".

 
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  #34 (permalink)
 ocpb 
Hartford CT, USA
 
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MerlinWorld View Post
being called a "Kid who still doesn't know what being burned feels like"

You've put something in double quotes that is not literally a quoted section, only your attempt to paraphrase it...

To me, it was obvious that the stove-related advice was not only referring to you, but about a large percentage of traders in general. I can personally relate to it, and appreciate the reminder.

And if you go back just a few posts, to me it looked like there was someone claiming they didn't call anyone stupid because their advice was obviously meant to be general to a large percentage of traders, not specific to the replied-to poster.

"Can't you see the difference?"

I hope you continue with this thread, because what you are doing is interesting. But if you don't, I'd understand.

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  #35 (permalink)
 Pariah Carey 
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Big Mike View Post
And everyone typically learns best by their own experience, the kid touches the hot stove no matter how many times the mom says "don't touch it" --- but usually just once

As traders, we seem to really like hot stoves... it takes longer to learn what not to do

In all seriousness, we can offer the best advice in the world, in the most friendly or most serious way, but still at the end of the day the lesson must be learned by the individual, it cannot be learned for him on behalf of another.

Mike

Or as I like to tell people in my non-trading biz, ďI can explain it for you but I canít understand it for you.Ē

Money make ya handsome
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  #36 (permalink)
 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
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Pariah Carey View Post
Or as I like to tell people in my non-trading biz, “I can explain it for you but I can’t understand it for you.”

You can't "explain" or "make me understand" anything here based on THIS research because you have never done it with this before, nobody did, not even me because I just invented it.

You can tell me about why YOU failed in the past with YOUR trading system(s) and YOUR indicator(s) and YOUR strategies but they are NOT MINE and what I am proposing here.

 
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  #37 (permalink)
 Billicare 
Haifa,Israel
 
Experience: Beginner
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Hi @merlin,
i'm new here and this is my first post here (exclude my Introduce).
I don't have 14 years of trading experience, i don't invented perfect trading sistem.
I have only 4 years of learning, attempts, huge losses, sweat and tears... all of you know's.
3 weeks ago i did my first withdrawal 10K from AMP Futures, starting this time with 3.1K, make 12K profit in 11 trading days.
Trading ES, NQ, Euro Bund.
I haven't hard trading system, experimenning constantly with indicators and moving averages...
I haven't right money management system (overtrading, big sizes, chasing...)
If i can make this... you with your experience and systems can make your goal

@merlin Please keep going, i beleve it's possibly (technicaly), but psychologically very difficult.
I speak now about myself - My worst enemy is myself.
Please keep posting here.
About coding indicators: why you not use Sierra chart there are great opportunities of customasing.
You can send me your indicators code, i'm not professional programer, but can try.

GOOOOOOOD luck!!!
P.S. Never stop going!!!

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  #38 (permalink)
 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
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Billicare View Post
If i can make this... you with your experience and systems can make your goal

Thank you for that.


Billicare View Post
About coding indicators: why you not use Sierra chart there are great opportunities of customasing.
You can send me your indicators code, i'm not professional programer, but can try.

Which coding language Sierra chart uses? C++? VB? C#?

Right now I am using EasyLanguage from TradeStation and I am switching to MultiCharts because their charting software looks a lot like TS and they even have a version that accepts EasyLanguage indicators and this is the one I will try soon.

It would nice to just convert my indicators into C# because I could stay with the free Special Edition of MultiCharts that is free of monthly fee, the EL version is $99/month.

If anyone here who knows C# or know someone who knows C#, I'm willing to give away all my indicators code so that we all see the same chart.

P.s. Have you had any trouble getting paid by AMP Futures?

 
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  #39 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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MerlinWorld View Post
Well I was afraid of this type of reply thinking that TradeStation was the only forum "infected" with negativity where logic, backtesting and solid positive performance report can't even shut them up.

It looks like this forum is like that too.

As a whole, the entire point of our community is helping others with a positive attitude. I created the site because other forums were "infested" to use your term with negativity and trolling, and I couldn't stand it.

So please don't mistake someone trying to condense decades of trading experience into a few sentences in a post that come across harshly for someone that is rude or overly negative. For the most part, they are trying to just "keep it real". And the fact is, what you propose is practically 100% impossible. I would therefore suggest you try to aim for something more realistic. This is me speaking, a trader with ~25 years experience, and 10 years experience watching patterns of successful and unsuccessful traders as admin of this site. You might consider I have a clue. But its up to you to prove me wrong. As traders, that is the basic of the job - win, and that means someone else will lose.

A good place to start is the "Where to start as a trader?" part 1 webinar here:
https://futures.io/webinars/ (in your browser ctrl-f then search "where to start").

Mike

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  #40 (permalink)
 Billicare 
Haifa,Israel
 
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MerlinWorld View Post
Thank you for that.



Which coding language Sierra chart uses? C++? VB? C#?

Sierra work on C++

Right now I am using EasyLanguage from TradeStation and I am switching to MultiCharts because their charting software looks a lot like TS and they even have a version that accepts EasyLanguage indicators and this is the one I will try soon.

It would nice to just convert my indicators into C# because I could stay with the free Special Edition of MultiCharts that is free of monthly fee, the EL version is $99/month.

If anyone here who knows C# or know someone who knows C#, I'm willing to give away all my indicators code so that we all see the same chart.

P.s. Have you had any trouble getting paid by AMP Futures?



No! I very happy with this broker, support work perfectly.
BTW Sierra chart support is the best!
I have also IB account it's different level of service

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  #41 (permalink)
 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013


Big Mike View Post
As a whole, the entire point of our community is helping others with a positive attitude. I created the site because other forums were "infested" to use your term with negativity and trolling, and I couldn't stand it.

WoW! I didn't expect that one.

Glad to hear we share the same values.


Big Mike View Post
what you propose is practically 100% impossible.

Here, read this: https://futures.io/psychology-money-management/47565-millionaire-10-weeks-conversation-broker-part-1-money-management.html

I think I need to remind you of my Part 1 where I posted screenshots of a guy who just proved that what you said was wrong. At least regarding my MM Technique that is.

Look again at the performance report, ESPECIALLY the one where Tim said that betting 656 contracts of the ES was high and where he managed to get to the Million $ mark in 10 weeks by locking down his ES contracts to only 18 which was more down to earth.

As I said on a previous post, EVEN if you failed 1000 times and seen other "experienced traders" (because my 14 years of analyzing, learning, programming systems and backtesting them doesn't seem to count here) have also failed a 1000 times, YOU CAN'T tell a new guy that his system will fail or that it is impossible because he's NOT using the same systems and strategies that YOU USED.

This "Super Crazy" idea of doubling my contract is NOT that far fetched. You just need 5 pts and you have done 1 of the doubling.

I didn't say it was easy or that I will be super consistent because you can't do that. However, I have shown you my indicator and you laugh at it or toss it aside, you are missing a big part of this Million $ climb because any experienced trader will tell you that you need to:

1- Find the trend
2- Buy the dips

...and my indicator is the best I have seen to help me do that and trust me, with 14 years of watching the TradeStation forums and EL programmers come up with all kinds of crazy indicators, I have seen A LOOOOOOOOOT of them so just from that statement alone should gain me some respect here instead of treating me like a kid who just discovered trading last week.


Big Mike View Post
A good place to start is the "Where to start as a trader?"

Oh PLEASE ENOUGH WITH THIS ALREADY.

I got TONS of VHS tapes (that shows my age right there), books, CDs, DVDs, online courses and years of programming and testing under my belt so again... STOP SEEING ME LIKE A NEWBIE....BECAUSE I'M NOT.

Cheers,

Merlin

 
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  #42 (permalink)
 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013


Billicare View Post
BTW Sierra chart support is the best!

Alright thanks, so Sierra Chart works on C++.

Do you know the difference between C++ and C Sharp (C#)?

For example here's the C# code for a 50 simple moving average...

 
Code
using System;
using System.Drawing;
using PowerLanguage.Function;

namespace PowerLanguage.Indicator
{
    [SameAsSymbol(true)]
    public class Mov_Avg_1_Line : IndicatorObject
    {
        private AverageFC m_averagefc1;

        private VariableSeries<Double> m_avg;

        private IPlotObject Plot1;

        public Mov_Avg_1_Line(object ctx) :
            base(ctx){
            length = 50;
        }

        private ISeries<double> price { get; set; }

        [Input]
        public int length { get; set; }

        [Input]
        public int displace { get; set; }

        protected override void Create(){
            m_averagefc1 = new AverageFC(this);
            m_avg = new VariableSeries<Double>(this);
            Plot1 =
                AddPlot(new PlotAttributes("Avg", 0, Color.Yellow,
                                           Color.Empty, 0, 0, true));
        }

        protected override void StartCalc(){
            price = Bars.Close;
            m_averagefc1.price = price;
            m_averagefc1.length = length;
        }

        protected override void CalcBar(){
            m_avg.Value = m_averagefc1[0];
            if (displace >= 0 || Bars.CurrentBar > Math.Abs(displace)){
                Plot1.Set(displace, m_avg.Value);
                if (displace <= 0){
                    if (this.CrossesOver(price, m_avg)){
                        Alerts.Alert("Price crossing over average");
                    }
                    else{
                        if (this.CrossesUnder(price, m_avg)){
                            Alerts.Alert("Price crossing under average");
                        }
                    }
                }
            }
        }
    }
}
Can you please post the code of a C++ Sierra Chart of a simple Moving Average so that we can compare the code?

Also, do you know anything about EasyLanguage?

For example, this is the code for that same Simple Moving Average in EasyLanguage.

 
Code
inputs:  Price(Close),Length(50);
variables:  Avg(0);
	
Avg = AverageFC(Price,Length);

Plot1(Avg,"Avg",Default,blue);
If you can understand both codes up there, then I will send you my indicator code to convert them.

Thanks

Merlin

 
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  #43 (permalink)
 Grantx 
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MerlinWorld View Post
YOU CAN'T tell a new guy that his system will fail or that it is impossible because he's NOT using the same systems and strategies that YOU USED.

No one says you will fail. Odds are that you will though.

If you are going to do it, then stop talking and do it. Prove us all wrong. You can flex afterwards. Not before.

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  #44 (permalink)
 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
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Grantx View Post
You can flex afterwards. Not before.

I am NOT "flexing"...as you call it.

I'm just posting my performance reports, charts and indicator screenshots and was hoping for some positive feedback but well...

 
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  #45 (permalink)
 ratfink 
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@MerlinWorld

Biggest mistake you made (and it happens often) is to create a thread with this sort of title.

Best advice I can offer you is to join FIO elite, it's worth it many times over, create a journal with a less provocative title and just get on with the business one or two trades at a time being honest with yourself every day of the job. It isn't easy. In a small account I did 20X in 3 months with 170 trades, then blew it up completely and I'm still trying to recover the psychology after three years in sideways la-la land.

I really wish you the best, highly recommend you close this thread and start over in a new journal, walking softly.

Travel Well
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  #46 (permalink)
 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013


ratfink View Post
Biggest mistake you made (and it happens often) is to create a thread with this sort of title

Not really because this type of title attracts 2 types of people:

1- The negative ones (oops! sorry, I meant to say the "Realist" ones)

2- The Elite, the best of the best, those traders who are on the cutting edge of research who don't trash it right away and ponder about it for a few days before replying.

It's those Elite Traders that I am still waiting for their replies.

On TradeStation, Tim was one of them. He came late but what he did is:

1- Read my "crazy thread"
2- Didn't fall for the "negative trap" and let them bitch about me and calling me names, etc
3- Programmed my Money Management System into code
4- Backtested it with his best trading system

And then and ONLY THEN... he posted screenshots of his performance report and even later on posted my MM technique into code so that it would calculate how much you have done/lost at the end of the day, see if you had enough to double your contracts and if so, apply that in the next trade.

it's when those Elite traders come in that the tone of the thread changes and the views EXPLODES because this "crazy 100% impossible" concept is suddenly "POSSIBLE" and that's based on stats and like I said, only stupid people argue against stats.

So that's what I'm doing here. Phase one (hear the negative bitch and laugh about it) is running it's natural course now but I'm waiting for Phase 2 (The best of the best of coders to jump in) and when this happens, "Hang on to your hats folks" things will get VERY BUSY HERE. Mark my words on that. :-)

Will it happen? Time will tell but if it doesn't happen in Big Mike's Forum, not sure it will happen at all.

So stay tuned, you never know where this thread will be next week from now.

 
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  #47 (permalink)
 Cloudy 
desert CA
 
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MerlinWorld View Post

In this screenshot, the market only hits the dark cloud once so you would get in at that level. Earlier that morning and later on that day, the price hovered within the 2nd and darkest cloud so you would get in at the peaks OVER that 2nd cloud. here again reversals at that level don't occur too often.



My 2c comments and question. The squared ema kind of reminds me of the old "supertrend" ma or the ZeroLagHATEma. ("Heiken Ashi Triple Ema" or ZeroLagTEMA or the other ZeroLag's). So the two clouds serve as kind of a trend indication. Is the bottom/darker cloud set on a higher time frame similar to a 5min vs. 1min proportion? What happens when in chop and the clouds keep turning over each other, or does that rarely happen with your indicators (?) because a main concern is usually when the trend is ending. I think there is merit for the cloud setup to be a higher time-frame indication where the regular and higher time frames are synched with the trend and easier to see on one chart at least. And maybe it could display similarly on a minute candlestick bar chart as well. (i'd tried the renko bartype phase for a while, but have since preferred traditional minute bars now).

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  #48 (permalink)
 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013


Cloudy View Post
Is the bottom/darker cloud set on a higher time frame similar to a 5min vs. 1min proportion? What happens when in chop and the clouds keep turning over each other, or does that rarely happen with your indicators (?) because a main concern is usually when the trend is ending.

My 2 clouds are not based on time or n previous bars, they are based on a fixed price range and yes the darker cloud (longer TF) is set on a 10-12 pt range while the lighter cloud is set on a smaller 6-8 pt range to capture the change in trend.

I agree with you that our main concern is to be warned when the trend is changing and that is why I added a 2 cloud with a smaller TF to tell us that the trend is changing.

You can see in the screenshot below that the light blue cloud is suddenly moving to the upside in white and when it crosses the darker cloud, it changes from dark blue to light gray.

In a choppy market when price jumps up and down on a small range like 10 pts or less you get this smooth setup.



But when the market goes up and down by waves of 10+ pts you get this crazy movements in the 2 clouds. This is fairly rare.



When you see this type of pattern, DO NOT TRADE, even if this means sitting on your hands for a few days. Wait for the 2 clouds to run smoothly in parallel like we saw on the last 3 days.

This was last Friday...



And this was last Thursday...



This was last Wednesday...


 
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  #49 (permalink)
 DavidHP 
Legendary Market Wizard
New Orleans, La (Mardi Gras City)
 
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MerlinWorld View Post
Yes.

As I mentioned above, I am in transition between TradeStation and my new broker. I don't have my 2 clouds indicator coded in C# Sharp (btw, if anyone know how to program C#, PM me, I will send you my indicator code for conversion) and on my new broker's charting software yet.

That's why the screenshots where you see my 2 clouds are on my TradeStation charting software and the screenshots where I made my trades are on MultiCharts.

Also, you always test live a new idea first on a sim and then with real $.

I see your theory is from 2014.
I do not wish to create more drama but I have a few questions.

It seems there have been a lot of 10 week periods between 2014 and 2019.
While you were using TS how many 10 week periods resulted in the success of the hypothesis?

If the hypothesis was proven, why not use some of the profits to hire a programmer to create your indicator? Waiting for someone to volunteer to create it has resulted in many weeks of lost potential $$.

I am not asking to criticize or discourage.
I'm only curious if your hypothesis has been proven or just an unproven theory?

Many years ago I developed a spreadsheet with a similar hypothesis.
It looks great in Excel, but never produced those results in actual trading.
In simulation it works, in live markets meh!

If my post offends you, just ignore it and continue your journey.

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Knowing it's not about Clouds or Wind. . .
But Learning to Dance in the Rain ! ! !
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  #50 (permalink)
 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013


DavidHP View Post
I see your theory is from 2014.
I do not wish to create more drama but I have a few questions.

It seems there have been a lot of 10 week periods between 2014 and 2019.
While you were using TS how many 10 week periods resulted in the success of the hypothesis?

If the hypothesis was proven, why not use some of the profits to hire a programmer to create your indicator?

Let's not mix my Money Management Technique with my Trading System shall we? It's 2 different things.

Regarding why nothing happened since 2014? Here's the answer I gave at the end of Part 1...


MerlinWorld View Post
However, there is a 2nd problem and this is the one that will stall everybody include me and this is it...

Tim was able to go to the million $ because he had a "Killer Trading System" that would make him win more $ than he could lose where he was able to use my Money Management and double his ES contracts all the way to the Million $ but...

NOT EVERYONE HAS A SUPER PROFITABLE TRADING SYSTEM LIKE TIM HAD....

Yes, with the M2K futures, if you make 5 pts, you will make a profit of $25 out of an original investment of $25 (M2K Intraday Margin) and make a 100% ROI but what if you LOSE those 5 pts??? That's right, you get a 100% DRAWDOWN.

Sure you got those orange backups at each level you reach but still, you need a good trading system to begin with or you are going NOWHERE.

So since 2014, my quest was to find the best trading system and that was easier said than done. Maybe for you guys here, creating from scratch a trading system that will be making your 5 Pts on a daily basis is a piece of cake but that's not my case here and without that killer trading system to make those 5pts, this means no trading, no doubling of contracts and this means no climb to the million.

Now Tim never posted the code of his trading system that he used to make this Million $ climb in 10 weeks back in 2014 in his performance report.

As to why he didn't even use it to get rich even by locking down the ES contracts to only 18 like he proposed? Go figure! People don't all have the goal of becoming millionaires, maybe it scared him, maybe he didn't even believe his own performance report. Who knows?

So the doubling part (Money Management Technique) that's easy to do ONCE you have a killer trading system which I didn't. At least not good enough to do these doublings.

As to my trading system based on this 2 clouds indicator, I just created it a few weeks ago and I didn't want to jump in head first like I did in 2005 where I lost $22,000. So yeah, I got burned alright, and since then I took my time to get my revenge by coming up with the best trading system I could get my hands on.

At TradeStation you needed $10,000 to open up an account and each Mini Russell 2000 contract was costing $1,600 a piece. If you got burned, that's not the type of money you like to throw in the fire just for the fun of it. So I took my time to gathered the money and slowly took the time a few weeks here and there every year to find and improve any system I saw.

However, now that the Micro Futures account can be opened with only $100 and Micro Russell contracts go for only $25, I have the money for it but still don't have the solid system that will assure me victory. I'm working on it and I'm veeeeeeerrrrryyyy patient kinda like a pitbull who will not leave the sight of his bone.

It's not even ready yet. Even with the help of these 2 clouds indicator, there are still problems to fix but I got time...Good things comes to those who wait right?

 
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  #51 (permalink)
fxFlux
London United kingdom
 
 
Posts: 11 since May 2018
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MerlinWorld View Post
Yes.

As I mentioned above, I am in transition between TradeStation and my new broker. I don't have my 2 clouds indicator coded in C# Sharp (btw, if anyone know how to program C#, PM me, I will send you my indicator code for conversion) and on my new broker's charting software yet.

That's why the screenshots where you see my 2 clouds are on my TradeStation charting software and the screenshots where I made my trades are on MultiCharts.

Also, you always test live a new idea first on a sim and then with real $.

Hey, I primarily use Ninjatrader to backtest so I am familiar with C#, would you want to PM the code for me to play around with? Would love to try this out and try some backtests.

 
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  #52 (permalink)
fxFlux
London United kingdom
 
 
Posts: 11 since May 2018
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In reply to your PM (As I have less than 5 posts and am not allowed to PM)

Well I am not familiar with the MultiCharts proprietary language so I would have to have a look at their manual for what arguments Plot1() and AverageFC() accept, and what else is a requirement for a MultiChart indicator. I'm sure it is not massively different to Ninjatrader

As I said on my post, I am looking to test this on Ninjatrader. Are you looking for someone to learn MultiCharts and code something for you?

Kind regards,

Andy

 
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  #53 (permalink)
 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013


fxFlux View Post
Hey, I primarily use Ninjatrader to backtest so I am familiar with C#, would you want to PM the code for me to play around with? Would love to try this out and try some backtests.


PM sent, let me know if you got it.

 
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  #54 (permalink)
 ratfink 
Birmingham UK
 
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MerlinWorld View Post
So stay tuned, you never know where this thread will be next week from now.

You are simply missing a few points.

a) We've seen it all before, many times.

b) Your indicator is nothing special and neither is your money management system. There are many better structural indicators and I was using a fully automated version of a much finer resolution scaling many years ago. I just completely failed the psychology test when I hit the first major drawdown well into the process and got cocky, complacent, casual and started changing things. This was despite achieving a 67% win rate with a negative 0.8 R:R to get the 2000% in 3 months over a fully documented 170+ real money trades.

There are several examples on FIO of similar indicators and similar money management systems in use.

c) The stats were Tim's. I wish you well with yours.

d) Unless you automate it fully your success will depend entirely on your psychology.

e) If you do automate fully then it depends on whether you have any sort of system at all, which you don't, only a very basic indicator.

I am clearly going to be put in the load of knockers camp now, so I will leave you in peace and simply wish you good luck.

Travel Well
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  #55 (permalink)
 DavidHP 
Legendary Market Wizard
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MerlinWorld View Post
Let's not mix my Money Management Technique with my Trading System shall we? It's 2 different things.

I have always believed it is better to shoot for the stars and hit the ceiling
Than to shoot for the ceiling and never get off the floor.
Aim high and dream huge.
(also see my signature)

So...I hope this helps without seeming negative.

Not mixing trading system with money management is part of the problem.

Money Management is nothing if you don't have MONEY.
In order to manage your trading money, you must be making money.
(seems obvious)

If you have a trading system and no money management, you will soon have no money...
If you have money management and no trading system, you will soon have no money...
Results are the same...

If your trading is not making money, you are loosing money no matter how well you manage it..

So the first step is to create an 'edge' that will make money to manage.

Does that make sense?

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Knowing it's not about Clouds or Wind. . .
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  #56 (permalink)
fxFlux
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MerlinWorld View Post
PM sent, let me know if you got it.

I didn't get anything come through.

 
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  #57 (permalink)
kazz
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Billicare View Post
Hi @merlin,
i'm new here and this is my first post here (exclude my Introduce).
I don't have 14 years of trading experience, i don't invented perfect trading sistem.
I have only 4 years of learning, attempts, huge losses, sweat and tears... all of you know's.
3 weeks ago i did my first withdrawal 10K from AMP Futures, starting this time with 3.1K, make 12K profit in 11 trading days.
Trading ES, NQ, Euro Bund.
I haven't hard trading system, experimenning constantly with indicators and moving averages...
I haven't right money management system (overtrading, big sizes, chasing...)
If i can make this... you with your experience and systems can make your goal

@merlin Please keep going, i beleve it's possibly (technicaly), but psychologically very difficult.
I speak now about myself - My worst enemy is myself.
Please keep posting here.
About coding indicators: why you not use Sierra chart there are great opportunities of customasing.
You can send me your indicators code, i'm not professional programer, but can try.

GOOOOOOOD luck!!!
P.S. Never stop going!!!

Wow, am I correct in reading that you made 12k in 11 days starting with 3k! That is phenomenal.

Are you day trading and do you mind sharing the bare bones of your strategy (What indicators you use, how you enter trades and time frames etc).

Thanks!

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  #58 (permalink)
fxFlux
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Posts: 11 since May 2018
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MerlinWorld View Post
PM sent, let me know if you got it.

I got your last PM

 
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  #59 (permalink)
 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013


fxFlux View Post
I got your last PM

Yeah I got yours too but I can't reply until the next hour. 1 PM per 60 min.

 
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  #60 (permalink)
 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013


ratfink View Post
You are simply missing a few points.

a) We've seen it all before, many times.

No you didn't. That's what I posted earlier. You cannot say this to a new guy you haven't seen who created an indicator you have never seen.

Anyway, I'm done replying to this type of msg... if you think you've seen what I just invented then you are free to not come back here and seen again that it will fail

 
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  #61 (permalink)
 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013


DavidHP View Post
If you have money management and no trading system, you will soon have no money...
Results are the same...

If your trading is not making money, you are loosing money no matter how well you manage it..

So the first step is to create an 'edge' that will make money to manage.

Does that make sense?

Yes, you got it right.

For example, I got the delayed version on TradeStation so I see my 2 clouds lines but can't sim trade live on it because it's delayed. It's mostly meant to program in EasyLanguage and backtest at the end of the day.

On my new broker's chart, I got the realtime live feed but because I don't have my 2 clouds programmed in C#, I don't see them so I trade blindly.

The result? Super bad entries, entering and getting out too late at the wrong point.

Here's the screenshot of this morning of the M2K Russell 2000 taken on TradeStation with my 2 clouds line.

You can noticed that that there was a stopped out entry when the 1st dip went into the dark gray cloud but the 2nd one at 1,579.5 was the best one. However, the market didn't do the whole 5 pts, it went 2 ticks from the 5 pts and that's not the 1st time I see this. People get out just a few ticks before the 5 pts. So I missed this one.

There was another one later when the lines turned from white to blue but again, because my TradeStation is delayed and on my new broker's chart, I didn't see where the cloud lines were, I missed this one also.

I could only see it later on my TradeStation chart and see that it would have worked this time.

So yeah, the indicator works like a charm but I HAVE TO PROGRAM IT so that it runs on its own or else I'm gonna lose my shirt again.

The future looks bright though.



Btw, look where the price is NOT... it's hovering mostly below the 2 clouds so this means that I'm closely watching the green rectangle area for pullbacks and when it will go there I will jump in again.


 
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  #62 (permalink)
 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013


fxFlux View Post
I got your last PM

Do you see the PM with the EasyLanguage code I sent you?

 
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  #63 (permalink)
 wldman 
Market Wizard
Chicago Illinois USA
 
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Post of the thread right here.


ratfink View Post
@MerlinWorld

Biggest mistake you made (and it happens often) is to create a thread with this sort of title.

Best advice I can offer you is to join FIO elite, it's worth it many times over, create a journal with a less provocative title and just get on with the business one or two trades at a time being honest with yourself every day of the job. It isn't easy. In a small account I did 20X in 3 months with 170 trades, then blew it up completely and I'm still trying to recover the psychology after three years in sideways la-la land.

I really wish you the best, highly recommend you close this thread and start over in a new journal, walking softly.


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  #64 (permalink)
 wldman 
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@MerlinWorld

I still have one or two of the stats based models that I built on trade station. I'm sure I have the data runs. I'm not sure if I have the EasyLanguage...but if I could code it, ANYONE can code it.

My objection to your candor was/is with the smug arrogance you showed up shouting. Guest, first post, and has captured and bred the goose that lays golden eggs. My gut says that you have never done anything in the markets past think about good ideas that might work...so some set of balls on you to show up shouting without any idea of the audience or the "ways" discourse generally progresses here.

You are 100% correct to attempt a statistical model, especially if you want to turn it into a black/grey box. If you can bridle up the gusto you will find people here that can help or collaborate. If you listen and evaluate without bias you can likely benefit from years and years of reasonable experience. Retain what is beneficial and dismiss, without harm, what cant benefit your project. If you want to trot in like a coked up frat-boy on parents weekend, you will attract a following of "seekers", but you will have a tough go finding resourceful contributors interested in your idea.

You can choose to keep defending yourself or you can invite collaboration. My advice, try the rebrand suggested above. Join the forum. Start a new thread that seeks specific thoughts on an item outside of what you believe are your own specific talents.

Just my two cents.

-Dan

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  #65 (permalink)
 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013


wldman View Post
You can choose to keep defending yourself or you can invite collaboration.


But I invite collaboration however with post like you did, you leave me no choice but to defend myself.

All I ever wanted by posting here for the first time since I signed up in 2013 (because at 49 and been analyzing the Russell 2000 since 2004, I ain't no frat-boy like you said) is to post some screenshots of my 2 clouds indicators and get some type of positive response and yet all I did was defend myself ever since I posted it but that was expected and the negative storm is not over yet, more like you will come and trash me or my system or tell me how arrogant I am, etc but that won't stop me.

The elite will soon come because anyone with half a brain will just noticed that I could have doubled my $25 to $50 Friday and Today going fro $50 to $100 with 1 hand in my back if I would have programmed my strategy in C# which I don't know.

$100 in case you missed it is the 2nd doubling of the Level 1. I'm one trade away from reaching level 2 by storing an $100 orange backup and play with the other green $100. You prefer to talk about me or laugh at my ideas instead of looking at the REAL DATA and true potential of this system. Your loss.

Now if you don't like it, nobody forces you to come back here and "endure" my terrible arrogance. Just stick to the thread that makes you happy.

Cheers,

Merlin

2 doublings done, 19 more to go. :-D


 
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  #66 (permalink)
 wldman 
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you are still not understanding correctly.

All the best to you.

Dan

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  #67 (permalink)
 MerlinWorld 
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wldman View Post
All the best to you.

Same for you,

Have a nice day.

Now are there any serious C Sharp programmers in the house so that we can move on to more serious matters here?

Merlin

 
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  #68 (permalink)
 mattz   is a Vendor
 
 
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As we celebrated the 10th anniversary of F.IO and heard every story in the book, I would suggest listening to those who started, failed, corrected, and succeeded. That makes the story of a trader. What they have learned along the way about trading, psychology, randomness, reality, and theory is priceless, in other words, listen to those who have skin in the game.

The theorists will always shout that no one gets them, and you are mean, ruthless, and unfair. The reality is that you stand in their way of fantasy. There is NOTHING you can say to these people that would make them realize that you are a skeptic because it's too good to be true. Sometimes too good to be true is a world that for the practical user (in any field) is hard to explain. Those who have a sense of reality take "too good to be true" as a curiosity challenge, not an attack.

“The curse of modernity is that we are increasingly populated by a class of people who are better at explaining than understanding, or better at explaining than doing.”
― Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life

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  #69 (permalink)
 shodson 
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  #70 (permalink)
 MerlinWorld 
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mattz View Post
As we celebrated the 10th anniversary of F.IO and heard every story in the book, I would suggest listening to those who started, failed, corrected, and succeeded.

Nah, no thank you. What I have seen and heard in my past 15 years of research in Trading is so boring, it makes me wanna cry.

Everybody keeps telling me... shut up and listen, think like us, do what we do, say what we say, don't rock the boat...KIDDO!!!, you just don't get it do you, this kid doesn't know life yet, don't worry guys, he will get it.. one day...

My response is this...

You don't like what I say? then don't talk to me. You don't like me on this forum? then just delete my account. I am telling you now, you can bitch at me or scream at me or tell me to stop behaving like this and fit in YOUR RANK, I'm sorry, I won't! I have ALWAYS been a black sheep, always went in the opposite direction of the mass and THAT makes A LOT of people mad and to be honest, I don't give a damn.

So go ahead, bitch at me all you want, laugh at my ideas, my concept, call me a dreamer, a "kid who don't know anything about trading", I don't care. Just don't stand in my way.


Quoting 
The man who says it cannot be done is generally interrupted by someone else doing it.—Elbert Hubbard.

NOW!....Is there ANYONE here who knows about C Sharp so that we can program and backtest this system?

 
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  #71 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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If this is your reaction when your ideals are challenged by people that have far more experience than you, then yes I agree -- you should quit the forum.

Just use an Word doc -- it won't challenge anything you say.

Now, if you want free and useful help, you might find it of value to adjust your attitude and listen to the traders that have made real money. From what I can tell, you are on sim, you've been a member for over 6 years here and haven't found a reason to justify the $100 to support our community by becoming Elite, you want to trade Micros --- this suggests you are quite likely attempting to trade from a position of fear without being properly capitalized. There is no worse place to start.

Best of luck whatever you decide.

MerlinWorld View Post
Nah, no thank you. What I have seen and heard in my past 15 years of research in Trading is so boring, it makes me wanna cry.

Everybody keeps telling me... shut up and listen, think like us, do what we do, say what we say, don't rock the boat...KIDDO!!!, you just don't get it do you, this kid doesn't know life yet, don't worry guys, he will get it.. one day...

My response is this...

You don't like what I say? then don't talk to me. You don't like me on this forum? then just delete my account. I am telling you now, you can bitch at me or scream at me or tell me to stop behaving like this and fit in YOUR RANK, I'm sorry, I won't! I have ALWAYS been a black sheep, always went in the opposite direction of the mass and THAT makes A LOT of people mad and to be honest, I don't give a damn.

So go ahead, bitch at me all you want, laugh at my ideas, my concept, call me a dreamer, a "kid who don't know anything about trading", I don't care. Just don't stand in my way.



NOW!....Is there ANYONE here who knows about C Sharp so that we can program and backtest this system?

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  #72 (permalink)
 MerlinWorld 
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Big Mike View Post
you want to trade Micros --- this suggests you are quite likely attempting to trade from a position of fear without being properly capitalized.

Well that's your pov on it Mike. Not sure I agree with it.

You see, am I scared of the market? Of course I am, I got burned in 2005 and anyone who got burned will always be cautious again. Scared enough to be paralyzed by fear? Oh hell no.

You have a point regarding Micros but it's not so much about fear, it's about the ease of entering the market not just for those who have been burned like me but to those who don't have a lot of $$ to burn.

But my system is exactly that, the cure for fear of the market!

Think about it for a sec. If you guys are good traders, WHY did most of you traded just ONE CONTRACT at a time? Isn't this a bit because of the fear of losing BIG amounts? Chances are the answer is yes and that's ok, you would be foolish to not be scared when you start trading 5, 10, 50 or even 100 contracts.

However, look closely at my Money Management Diagram below...

Do you see that EVEN if you get to the Million $ column and lose by getting a 100% drawdown after losing 5 pts in a row, you "only lose" the green $125,000. You still have the orange $125,000 in backup to restart that climb. And if you lose that one, you got the $25,000 orange block to restart from and then the $8,000 block and the $2,000 and then the $500 and FINALLY EVEN if you lose all those backups, YOU STILL only lose that original green $25 that started it all... which is well.... NOTHING.

You see, Micros not only are so cheap that ANYBODY can get in the market but with my MM Technique and all it's backup levels, you can trade without any fear.

If you are still afraid to trade when the numbers get bigger, then do what I am doing here. I call this the "3 doublings and back" method.

Say that you managed to go all the way to the 64 contracts at the end of level 4. What you can do is take that 16,000 and store it back either as 640 block of $25 and restart from beginning or... take that 16,000, divide it by 8 and store those 8 blocks of $2000 to restart the Level-4 climb.

With last Friday and today's 5 pts, I have already done 2 out of the 3 doublings of Level-1 that will make me a total of $200 that I can split into 8 blocks of $25 and restart that level-1 again not caring that much whether I make that 3 doubling climb again because I will have 8 orange blocks of $25 as a backup and I'm pretty sure one of these 8 blocks will do that 3 doubling climb again.

It's ALL about making those 5 pts trades. NOOOOO... not every single day, NOBODY can do that but when the market is moving, my 2 clouds can find the trend of the day and when those dips occur, I will be ready to pull the trigger.

I know you must fight the envy to kick my ass out of your forum but just be patient here, when the master coders jump in, you will thank me for it.

I know this will sound cocky but this could easily be trading History in the making here.


 
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  #73 (permalink)
 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
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Here's something you will like.

I may have improved my trading system even more.

You see this dip below the gray cloud? The best entry would be on that green circled pivot of course but how do you know that THIS pivot will be the one to jump in the game. The truth is, nobody knows and the problem is that you can't get in on every pivot you see because well...you see how many pivot we have in this dip?

So I was looking for ways to reduce those entry points.



What came to the rescue? That's right, my Squared MA again.

You can see that by adding that MA, it is blue on the way down but turns white on the way up giving us in the green rectangle the best pivot point to enter.

Another possibility is the red circle where you have a reversal (blue-white renko bar setup) ABOVE the MA.




So now we have the 2 clouds to find the trend, they also highlight the deepest pullbacks but now by adding another Squared MA, it also reduce the number of false entries.

It's getting better wouldn't you agree?

If you have any suggestion on how to improve that "dip entry" then please post it below.

 
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  #74 (permalink)
 DavidHP 
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MerlinWorld View Post
Nah, no thank you.

NOW!....Is there ANYONE here who knows about C Sharp so that we can program and backtest this system?

I think it is strange how you keep asking for help but have a demeanor that does not want anyone to make suggestions.

There are several people on this thread that could easily create your indicator.
The problem is, they all know it will not produce the results you seek.
Most of us have been there and done that and can see the indicator is not your problem.

I wonder why you have never seen the need to become an Elite member.
If you were, you would know that similar indicators you seek are likely already on the forum in areas you can't access.
Why re-develop an indicator that already exists or is almost the same with different settings.

One clue I will offer is this:
When I look at your charts, I see a Renko bar chart.
Those look nice and orderly and make a nice chart.

I stopped using those many years ago because they give false results in backtest.
They also show prices on each bar that never occurred in real time.
But... since you are a 'seasoned' trader, you already knew this. Right?

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  #75 (permalink)
 MerlinWorld 
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DavidHP View Post
I think it is strange how you keep asking for help but have a demeanor that does not want anyone to make suggestions.

There is a difference between asking for advice that will build my system and getting brainwashed to think like everyone posting.

Why is it so hard to just help me hit the wall like you all think I will instead of trying to make me do and think like you?


DavidHP View Post
They also show prices on each bar that never occurred in real time.
But... since you are a 'seasoned' trader, you already knew this. Right?

Well of course.

Those are called phantom bars, they are not just on Renko but on Range bars too. Do you know about Cynthia Kase, if not watch her clips on YT.

 
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  #76 (permalink)
 DavidHP 
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Then, why use Renko bars to backtest?
Because they are false bars, your testing will be skewed (or screwed) to fail. LOL

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  #77 (permalink)
 MerlinWorld 
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DavidHP View Post
Then, why use Renko bars to backtest?
Because they are false bars, your testing will be skewed (or screwed) to fail. LOL

The failure comes form those phantom bars that didn't exist, once you check the box that removes them, you got bars that should be ok and not skewed anymore because they jump like any other bars when the price makes gaps.

You can always backtest with kase bars or 1 minute bars on a tick by tick case.

 
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  #78 (permalink)
 DavidHP 
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@Fat Tails has a great post here about Renko.


FWIW

You can use other bar types but your examples of your hypothesis is with a flawed bar type which flaws your hypothesis.

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 DavidHP 
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shodson View Post

LOL...
Share please, I love popcorn

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  #80 (permalink)
 Popsicle 
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I have been following the thread and thought I would not reply, but maybe this helps you a bit, I hope that you read and think about this carefully.


MerlinWorld View Post
......Now are there any serious C Sharp programmers in the house so that we can move on to more serious matters here?
Merlin

Yes, there are many seriously talented C# developers on this forum, most of whom have implemented much more challenging solutions than this. It is not about getting the serious developer. Have you stopped and asked yourself why none of us developers are jumping at the opportunity yet? Let me tell you why I didn't put my hand up.

Whenever someone asks for support one of the most important things for me is seeing how willing they are to interact, listen to criticism (constructive or not) and either incorporate or refute the facts and in what way they do that. This gives me and idea of how flexible they are on working on a solution and changing if necessary to get to a good solution. It is not about if the solution works or not, it is about how the journey will be with this person to get to a solution, if that makes sense.

I looked at the thread and your immediate reaction to all the input you have been given (most of which is meant to guide you BTW, that's what this forum is brilliant at) and decided that it might not be a very good journey.

I wish you luck and hope you find a developer to assist you.

Good Trading,
John

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  #81 (permalink)
 bobwest 
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@MerlinWorld, with respect, I would like to make a suggestion that I think can only help you in your efforts to reach your goal.

I see that, now, you are not in a position to run your system in real-time, because you have your indicators on Trade Station and you can only access TS with a 15-minute delay, which makes your system unusable to you for real-time sim or live money trading. And you can presently only run your system on TS because that's what the indicators are written for. So you are soliciting help from an experienced coder to port your Easy Language code over to C# or C++.

But you are asking for an experienced coder to show up and do your conversion for you, and no one is responding. Well, without knowing what is in your code, I know I could do that. So could several of the people I recognize as professional programmers who have commented so far in this thread.

Why do we not rush to cash in on this opportunity? It is not, really, that we are stupid, or hostile, or can't accept anything new, or because this forum is not friendly, or anything else in that line. It is simply that no one believes your system will work, and we have other things to do. Also, yes, we have seen great hopes before that didn't pan out.

We have had them too. Probably everyone has done the basic calculation that if you double a thousand dollars and keep doubling the resulting amount ten times, you will get a million. I did that, long ago, and my eyes lighted up. Probably everyone has had a great new system that would get them there. I did too, and sometimes it worked, and sometimes it didn't. Sometimes a million dollars is hard to get, somehow.

Now, maybe all this is just because we are all losers. Fine, you can just prove your system, fairly easily, and the amount of interest will be huge.

So here is my suggestion. You can only use Trade Station, and only with a delay. OK, for purposes of working with your system, delayed data is as good as on-time data if you're just doing simulation trading. So my suggestion is to open a trade journal here on FIO, trade your system using TradeStation delayed data, in simulation mode -- entering the trades in the TS simulation at the points where your system tells you to make them, recording the trades and your profit/loss and showing them, copied in from your TS trade summary, every day in your journal, with your thoughts and any realizations for improvement that you have. Do this for a month, and be scrupulously honest with yourself regarding your trades, the reasons for them and the results. Share those publicly every day for other traders to understand what you are doing.

That's it. You will have demonstrated to a skeptical world that your system works -- at least in sim -- you will have no shortage of interest from others who can help you port your TS code into any platform you wish.

Now, to be honest, there can be some drawbacks to this plan, too:

- You'll have to share out the secrets -- at least to a degree, if not the actual code. Certainly many traders who have a system don't want to do this, and it is fine if you don't. But then you have the problem of convincing others to help, without their having any incentive to. Your projections of a million dollars is not an incentive, because they are just projections. Trades would be very different.

- The keeping of a public trade journal can be very difficult personally, because it requires self-honesty and a willingness to be accountable for your results. This can be a problem for people, but it can also be overcome and your trading will benefit from it.

It would be understandable if you decline to take this option. But as it is, you have nothing actually to show anyone except some projections of future success and a couple of screenshots.

Now, if for some reason you can't use TS for sim trading right now, then you will have another problem, but if making a million dollars is what's at stake, there should be enough motivation there to overcome this and any other obstacle.

I wonder if you will see this comment as another attack -- or another idiot's misunderstanding of your ideas -- or whether you will think about it and at least see that the intention is wholly positive and contributory to you, which is how I mean it.

Good luck, and I do mean this.

Bob.

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  #82 (permalink)
 wldman 
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Learn to program, way easier than doubling your money 21 times trading futures.

Or, since nobody seems to be willing to partner with your current hypothesis, consider that as an indicator cloud about the non delusional viability of your theory.

My question: Are you the first person to conceive this idea? I mean it's hard to imagine that none of the computational finance or physics/math PhD's at say, Goldman Sachs or Citadel, have thought of this...and thus acquired all the money ever created.

But, I am happy that you want to get serious by finding someone to divide their time to work for you for free. Dozens of people are trying to help you yet they are collectively too stupid to understand that you have it all figured out.

If you keep quoting me or including @ me replies, I will continue trying to nudge you toward reality. If you stop needing to be right I'll never type in your thread again.





MerlinWorld View Post
Same for you,

Have a nice day.

Now are there any serious C Sharp programmers in the house so that we can move on to more serious matters here?

Merlin


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  #83 (permalink)
 MiniP 
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fxFlux View Post
Hey, I primarily use Ninjatrader to backtest so I am familiar with C#, would you want to PM the code for me to play around with? Would love to try this out and try some backtests.

if your convert anything to Nt8 you should definitely post the conversion



-P

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  #84 (permalink)
 MiniP 
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to make this fun, we could turn it into a SIM challenge for all
everyone starts with a $25 SIM account and leverage the hell out of it.
Winner gets some forum clout

-P

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  #85 (permalink)
 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
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DAMN!

And I thought I would hit a negative storm hehehe, looks like I hit a Hurricane here.

You know what guys, nevermind.

If there are any C# programmers interested in this, just PM me.

If you don't see the enormous potential of this indicator (and trust me, after 14 years of being a member on the TradeStation forum which is by far the most advanced forum regarding automated strategies and new indicator development, MT4 is not far behind) I have seen a lot and so far, this 2 clouds indicator is by far the best trend finder indicator I've seen and again I've seen 100s.

Finding the daily trend is not that hard, 2 basic MAs can help you do this but find THE BEST PIVOT POINTS using that same indicator?... never seen that before.

This is today's chart, let's see if your trading system/indicator found that best entry for today (see green circle in screenshot).

Cheers,

Merlin


 
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  #86 (permalink)
 trendisyourfriend 
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Salut Merlin,

Un indic. similaire au tien:

https://ninza.co/product/solar-wind

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 MiniP 
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MerlinWorld View Post
DAMN!

And I thought I would hit a negative storm hehehe, looks like I hit a Hurricane here.

You know what guys, nevermind.

If there are any C# programmers interested in this, just PM me.

If you don't see the enormous potential of this indicator (and trust me, after 14 years of being a member on the TradeStation forum which is by far the most advanced forum regarding automated strategies and new indicator development, MT4 is not far behind) I have seen a lot and so far, this 2 clouds indicator is by far the best trend finder indicator I've seen and again I've seen 100s.

Finding the daily trend is not that hard, 2 basic MAs can help you do this but find THE BEST PIVOT POINTS using that same indicator?... never seen that before.

This is today's chart, let's see if your trading system/indicator found that best entry for today (see green circle in screenshot).

Cheers,

Merlin


anyone can cherry pick 3 hours after the fact

-P

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  #88 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Interesting this is posted in the Psychology section of the forum. I'm sure the intention by the OP was to attach on the Money Management portion of the full subforum title "Psychology and Money Management". Quite sure, based on all available evidence.

We've (mostly) all been there...

I personally place a huge amount of importance on the psychology of trading, including all the automated systems I've written and traded.

Mike

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  #89 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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  #90 (permalink)
 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013


MiniP View Post
anyone can cherry pick 3 hours after the fact

No need to, that's the beauty of this indicator, it shows that the trend has turned from down (blue) to up (white) and it shows you the best entry we could find at the time it did it.

Now, NOBODY would have known what would come up next but still, my indicator did it's job.



In fact, most trader who know about the Elliott Wave and Fibonacci would have told you that the downtrend will continue because after that big down move, you had this big pullback to the 50% Fib line so we should have seen wave 3 but...NOPE... my indicator turned white.


 
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 cshrum 
nashville, tn
 
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Have you uploaded your indicator to the tradestation here? Will you post some CL charts?

Thanks

Sent using the futures.io mobile app

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  #92 (permalink)
 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013


cshrum View Post
Have you uploaded your indicator to the tradestation here? Will you post some CL charts?

Thanks

Sorry, I don't have the CL feed and I will send the EL code only to the programmers who are helping me right now.

 
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  #93 (permalink)
 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013

Hey Mike, question for you..

When will this msg stop here?


Quoting 
Message:
You may only post 1 messages every 60 minutes.

I keep getting PMs from programmers willing to help me and I can't even reply to them :-(

Is there a threshold that I have to reach again to be able to remove this annoying feature?

 
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  #94 (permalink)
 phantomtrader 
Reno, Nevada
 
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MerlinWorld View Post
Sorry, I don't have the CL feed and I will send the EL code only to the programmers who are helping me right now.

Hi - Do you run your tests in market replay or is it the strategy backtest engine on TS? I ask because all these backtesting engines regardless the platform, can be highly inaccurate, particularly if you're using different types of bars (I think you're using Kase bars?)
I used to have TS but their commissions are too high for scalpers. But EL is an excellent development tool. Much easier and more flexible than Ninja.
Anyway, it looks like your strategy is somewhat similar to Martingale which continues to double up. I'm just wondering if you've considered that each trade is independent of previous trades, regardless how the strategy is programmed. If you have unlimited cash to cover drawdowns and limitless time, then the strategy can be successful. But it's unrealistic to think that in a 10 week period you can rely on a setup like that to be successful. If you're working with programmers, I would suggest that you (and they) consider the optional stopping theorem. It's very relevant to doubling strategies.

In any case, good luck with your strat. Remember, even if something doesn't work or has to be tweaked, it's important to know what DOESN'T work as well as what does work. It's the first lesson you learn as a researcher.

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 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013


phantomtrader View Post
Hi - Do you run your tests in market replay or is it the strategy backtest engine on TS? I ask because all these backtesting engines regardless the platform, can be highly inaccurate, particularly if you're using different types of bars (I think you're using Kase bars?)
I used to have TS but their commissions are too high for scalpers. But EL is an excellent development tool. Much easier and more flexible than Ninja.
Anyway, it looks like your strategy is somewhat similar to Martingale which continues to double up. I'm just wondering if you've considered that each trade is independent of previous trades, regardless how the strategy is programmed. If you have unlimited cash to cover drawdowns and limitless time, then the strategy can be successful. But it's unrealistic to think that in a 10 week period you can rely on a setup like that to be successful. If you're working with programmers, I would suggest that you (and they) consider the optional stopping theorem. It's very relevant to doubling strategies.

In any case, good luck with your strat. Remember, even if something doesn't work or has to be tweaked, it's important to know what DOESN'T work as well as what does work. It's the first lesson you learn as a researcher.

Hi,

I don't run test right now because this doubling technique is just that, a Money Management Technique and without a Trading System, it goes nowhere.

That's why I need help of programmers to convert this EasyLanguage code in to C# and then once we have this indicator on our screens, we will move to the Trading System part.

So yeah, we are not there yet but it's coming along.

Martingale is dangerous because it has no safety nets. It's constant doubling over and over again and we all know where this leads. You have to stop at one point and either bring back all the $ into the first columns of $25 or do like on my diagram here, orange backups at every level you go so that you have at least one safety net per level in case you can't double 3 times in a row.

We'll see




CSHRUM,

Here's a screenshot of the ES chart for today and yesterday. I haven't found the best settings for the ES because the RTY pays better but if that chart is trending, my indicator should find that trend and show you the best dips to enter.


 
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  #96 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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MerlinWorld View Post
Hey Mike, question for you..

When will this msg stop here?

https://futures.io/elite/

We limit PM's for non-Elite because of the overwhelming amount of spam and abuse.

Mike

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 jeffalan 
Raleigh, NC
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Posts: 25 since Sep 2010
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Merlin,

May I suggest you simply go over to Upwork.com and hire a programmer for your C+ indicator. I have used Upwork before and it was quick, smooth and extremely affordable if you are looking to hire a programmer. Good luck!

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  #98 (permalink)
 MerlinWorld 
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013


jeffalan View Post
Merlin,

May I suggest you simply go over to Upwork.com and hire a programmer for your C+ indicator. I have used Upwork before and it was quick, smooth and extremely affordable if you are looking to hire a programmer. Good luck!

Thanks but I already have a few programmers contacting me (maybe more than I need right now) because I didn't want to hire a guy who don't know trading. I want a mix of trader and programmer that can see it's potential and looks like I was right because I received some PMs.

 
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  #99 (permalink)
Joseph H
Wilmington Delaware
 
 
Posts: 21 since May 2019
Thanks: 3 given, 16 received

Hi Merlin,

I am glad you created an indicator that helps put the odds in your favor. I have created/edited indicators in TOS which uses Thinkscript. I use NinjaTrader for futures, but unfortunately don't know how to write code in C++ or whatever they use. However, I may be able to recreate the indicators in TOS and back test them while also making the formulas of the indicators part of the bars (renko, tick, range, etc...) that way when conditions are met the bar will show a certain color, that way all you need is the bars on the screen. If you'd like to send me the code, I can give it a whirl. Also will these indicators work on any market/timeframe or have you not tried them on anything else but what your currently using?

All the best,
Joe H.

 
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 jerrt 
Rochester NH/USA and soon to be Inglis FL
 
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Thanks for sharing, you have my interest.

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