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Millionaire in 10 weeks & Conversation with broker
I turned off the short term TF cloud and it shows a faster change of color of the cloud when trend changes direction.
It's not perfect (no indicator is) and the cloud changes many times it's color during consolidations as shown below but it's the best one I found so far to pinpoint as early as possible the new trend that is starting.
During big trends, it clearly shows you those deep pullbacks or "dips" as shown below when the cloud turned white.
You have assumed that 5 pts win per trade is doable. What will system dynamics be if 3 pts per trade is target for closing the trade? The reason: casually observing the available trades for MicroRussell, it seems that on many days there are not frequent 5 pt trades, especially if they are required to originate from a trend pull-back. I also note that your July 31 Double top short at 14:35 was not a trend pullback trade, it seemed like a sudden trend reversal. If so, it probably isn't a legal trade according to your early game plan?
The average daily range of the Russell 2000 back in 2013 was around 14 pts. Today it's 28.9 pts so maybe not everyday have this range but pretty much all will have a 5 pt range even those moving in a very tight range.
One the smallest range day was July 9th and still 5 pts was doable that day. Maybe not in 1 trade but at least in 2.
I never said we will have to do 5 pts in ONE TRADE, I said that to make enough money to buy a 2nd M2K contract costing $25 each, we will need to make 5 pts at $5 each pt.
Now, whether we make those 5 pts in 1, 2, 5 or more trades, I have no clue. My wish would be that we do it in just 1 trade but we'll see.
Remember, Part 1 was telling that we need 5 pts to double our contract but without a solid trading system we will go NOWHERE.
So will we soon be able to create such a trading system? I don't know... place your bet now :-)
Again these are the steps that I have in mind for many years now.
1- Find the major trend of the day (I think my 2 clouds indicator does that very well now)
2- Find the pullbacks/dips made during the trend (I think my 2 clouds indicator does that very well now also )
3- Find a group of programmers/traders willing to mastermind and discuss all the possible best entries on those dips
4- Back test, forward test, sim test live to see if the automated script got us in exactly at the point we wanted to.
5- Get a performance report to see if the system was profitable or not
6- If not, repeat from step #3
Science is research and evidence. That's it. If the evidence doesn't support the hypothesis, then you can either tweak the system (optimization) or start over. Merlin's system is a bunch of moving averages reconfigured into pretty pictures. You can square them, calculate exponential values or do some tensor calculus. It's still a moving average. Moving averages filter out noise. They smooth out the data. They are NOT predictive. Double tops and double bottoms are ex post facto observations.
The reason why people get bent out of shape with threads like this is because everyone has been there, done that. If all it took was moving averages to trade the ES, everyone would be rich and there would be no need for this website. On top of that, the OP is not a student of the markets or a strategy developer. He's hell bent on presenting a not-so-original idea that he can't even code himself. This is analogous to a cancer researcher who wants to direct his/her lab experiments from an armchair in front of a TV. It's ridiculous.
The bottom line is that the idea is not new.
The OP's response to this post by TWDsje says everything we need to know about him:
Mike's website provides an opportunity for collaboration and an exchange of ideas. That's how we all benefit. It's been a tremendous help to me, particularly picking up pieces of code and ideas that perhaps I would have never thought of. Let's not get stuck in the mud.
Done what? Done listening to people trying to help you? Done listening to people that have traded and won/lost actual real (non-sim) money? Done listening to those that have already done exactly what you are trying to do -- and know with certainty it will not work -- yet still try to spend their valuable time to help you?
What exactly is it you are done with? Done learning? Or done listening?
Your behavior encapsulates the antithesis of what our community stands for. But how long are we expected to continue you to allow the constant negativity against anyone and everyone trying to help you?
You are not here to learn. You are not helping others. There will always be rookies entering the market, and that's fine. Here, we choose to try to educate them with helpful and meaningful advice based on valuable experience, experience gained trading real money (not sim). There are some who like your system, and that's fine -- so long as they know the system itself isn't what is important, and certainly by itself isn't profitable, regardless of what any backtest report says. So long as they recognize that, anyone and everyone can find value in ideas on how to approach a trade. But you sir have completely failed at the rest of trading, the important pieces of understanding how the market works, why it works, why placing blind faith in a system is doomed to fail on its own, your lack of understanding the psychology of trading, even the psychology of trading an automated system.
Let me tell you who is done. We're done, with you. Go on and go back to the other forum and complain about how unfairly you were treated, how so many people loved you but the big bad wolf admin banned you and closed your thread, and poor you for all the time and help that other traders, real traders, have tried to bestow upon you, but how none of these people know better than you. And don't forget to mention how we continued to call out your lack of experience, despite the fact you corrected us so many times telling us just how much experience you have!
Have fun! It's a Monday, and the ban hammer has dropped for the first time in a long time. Case closed!
