Thanks for your help but I already have a few C# programmers interested so I will let them work on it and then post the code here for everyone to download for free (nope, you won't even have to join any club to get it ;-) ).
You will need to download a free version of MultiCharts to see it or some other platform that will load PowerLanguage .NT file in .pln format though.
As for using it on other markets, nope, no interested, I have done this research a long time ago and most specifically recently using Micro Futures.
I'm a black sheep so I don't think like everyone else. I'm so far the only one who thought about this way of thinking here and that just blows my mind (maybe I really am a moron who knows). I then confirmed with another conversation with my broker that I was right all along.
You see to make as much $ as possible in the stock market, you need to look at 2 things:
1- How much that trading instrument cost you to get in and trade with it
2- How many pts or more specifically "ticks" you need to do to double your investment.
For example, let's say that you buy 1 share of a stock that cost $25 and you pick the Long direction and you are right and the stock goes up 50 ticks in your favor. What you have done is this:
1- Initial investment cost: $25
2- Profit: 50 ticks at 1 cent per tick = $0.50
3- ROI: 0.02 or 2%
Now let's move on to Micro Futures more specifically the Micro Russell 2000 (M2K).
1- Initial investment cost: $25
2- Profit: 50 ticks at 50 cents per tick = $25
3- ROI: 100%
This is the basic chart...
This one is the more detailed version...
As you can see, the M2K is the best trading instrument to make the 100% ROI the fastest way possible.
With Stocks, it can take you months to make those 2,500 ticks at 1 penny per tick to make that 100% ROI and make that $25 profit to buy a 2nd share of that $25 Stock.
With Forex, as discussed on Part 1, even if you make 26.5 pips daily, you will still need 5 winning days in a row to make JUST ONE doubling. Talk about wasting time here.
But with Futures (more specifically the Micro Russell 2000) if you make 5 pts...TODAY... you will make a 100% ROI... TODAY!!!
So to answer your question, NO, nothing else than the M2K and the RTY matters to me right now.
Hi guys, been a member of Big Mike's forum since 2013 but didn't post anything back then. That's about to change today because I am leaving my present broker (TradeStation) and moving to a new Futures broker (AMP Futures) trading Micro eMini …
However, no need to get passed page 1, it's just the same old same old bitching from negative people saying "I'm a loser, this won't work, I will fail, I'm just a kid who don't know shit, etc", you know...the standard tape that people throw at people with new ideas.
Thanks for the reply. I trade the ES and have a daily goal of 4 ticks ($50). Once I achieve a certain $ amount, I increase the contract size to 2, then rinse repeat. I am always looking for something to further increase my odds of success, although I know that we can NEVER completely remove the risk, because we don't know the reasons why people are buying or selling at any particular time. I look forward to knowing the parameters of your indicators and see if I can incorporate that into my trading system. I wish you the best and I truly hope you are successful!!
Sincerely,
Joe H.
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Cudos for posting your new idea about trading. Do not get discouraged by any negative comments or posts. Stick to your original plan wherein you indicated after you had the programming for your indicators completed, you would post to this forum for all to use. It is refreshing to see a level of enthusiasm that you have for your idea.
In my opinion, it is a mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it. I say never be afraid to try something new. Remember, amateurs built the ark and professionals built the titanic.
If Elon Musk or Steve Jobs or any number of the numerous innovators gave up after someone told them their idea would not work, we would not have the tremendous advances in technology and products that we all use and enjoy today.
If I were a programmer, I would be more than willing to help.
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For those who thought that I was going to crawl in the corner and roll into ball and cry...
HAHAHAHA SOOOOOOORRRRRRYYYYYYY NOT ME...
But I'm sure the shit storm is not over yet. The first backtest usually lead to disappointing results.
For example, take a look at this screenshot that I posted earlier...
Yes my indicator showed us the trend and yes it showed us this small area below the darkest cloud where a pullback occurred but if we enter on all those pivot points, we will get CLEANED so at first the results will come negative and now they will all jump in and tell me...
SEEEEEEE....WE TOLD YOU SO.
What only a few here figured out is how good this indicator is to remove us the majority of all the areas in a chart where we can take trading decision because the more decisions you will have to make, the more errors you will make.
So everyone helping out now by PM or email will have to team up and work together because the job is not done yet. We're not out of the woods yet.
Looks like a short term and longer term Flex Renko Heiken Ashi simple (or exponential, doesn't matter much) moving average overlaid on a non-Renko (i.e. Range, volume etc) chart with a signal after the overlaid MA changes direction with the price action on the opposite side of the MA from the direction one would want. Major problem is rewriting, since the MA probably won't draw an advantageous entry until well after the event but 15-minutes + later it shows as a "hurricane". I use something similar but don't toot my horn about it.
If the system were that powerful, one wouldn't need 10-weeks to clock a million if one started with . . .
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Not really because those Heikin Ashi bars are always lagging, my indicator doesn't because it's based on PRICE movement. If the threshold needed to change the color of the clouds is met, the clouds change colors at the exact TICK the price reaches that level, not 5, 9, 20, 50, 100 or 200 bars later.
Hey, I never said I found THE HOLY GRAIL here. In part 1 I said that the MM Technique is just 1% of the climb to the Million and the Trading System is the other 99%.
This 2 clouds indicator is just that, an indicator, maybe one of the best I've seen in years and trust me I've seen my share of those on the TradeStation Forum but still, nobody I know of got rich with just an indicator.
This "Trading System" thread is mostly to find traders like me who like to work as a team and work OPENLY not just behind doors like little "Secret Societies". I never been a big fan of "Boy Clubs" anyway.
Those who see the potential of this indicator will jump in, most won't.
Well from one of the programmers who contacted me, apparently NinjaTrader indicators are also programmed in C# so when the 2 clouds will be converted into C#, you should be able to see it on your chart.
Btw guys, maybe I'm missing something big here but I don't see what the fuss is all about those phantom bars that skew the Renko charts.
I mean look at these 2 Renko charts with 0.3 pt (3 ticks) Renko bars.
I haven't seen a gap in today's chart so I had to go back to yesterday to find them and I only found 2 missing bars.
If you click this checkbox here, you will fill those gaps with fake bars but it's not like you will fill 10% of all the bars you see on your chart, it's not even 1% I would say 1 bar in 1,000 is missing so I don't think that backtesting with Renko bars will be that big of a deal here.
Stay tuned folks, we'll soon find out the answer to Big Mike's question regarding...me!!! Really???...
You see Mike, it's not that I refuse to listen, I do listen but ONLY to smart comments (I have zero tolerance for stupidity) and I refuse to be indoctrinated (aka "...Think like us or get the F... out").
You may not understand what I'm trying to do here and that's ok, not everybody is a visionary ( haha just JOKING with ya ;-) ).
Don't worry, you will all get it one day when my little team of programmers and I post the indicator codes and start to build a working strategy with it and post screenshots of our backtests.
I risk 5 ticks to make "50 ticks" or 5 points, not "5 ticks". It's a 10:1 ratio game here. If you want to play super conservative, you can even get in only at those multiple double top/bottom that you see everywhere in the Renko charts.
You place your limit order at the top and then your stop loss just 1-2 ticks above your entry so if it doesn't do a double top/bottom, you lose peanuts but again, you will be surprised as to how many of those double top/bottom you will find in this type of chart especially if you have 0.3 pt Renko charts (see green rectangles in screenshot below).
Below are those double top/bottom done on today's chart...
Pretty much all of them would have given you your 5 pts without risking more than 1-2 ticks.
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It's most certainly not a new idea.
We've told you, but you aren't listening...and you aren't reading for yourself to educate yourself (so that you don't need to be told "it won't work"). The only thing left is to learn on your own, which is usually what is needed anyway. Along the way, you'll justify all the reasons it didn't work in this example or this day, you'll add and subtract more "filters". Seriously, you don't think I've seen this before?
Best of luck, most the serious seasoned traders are not going to continue to try to help you any longer with your overwhelmingly negative attitude.
If you would just change your attitude to be open to input, you'd stand to learn something useful.
4,500 views in the past 3 days... why do you think that is? Luck??? I don't think so, your members are smart and can see some VERY INTERESTING STUFF here.
Good tell them to never come back in this thread.
Like I said, I WILL NOT BE INDOCTRINATED.
YOU will benefit from MY research not the other way around. In the past 14 years of research on MULTIPLE forums, I heard it all from guys like you and it makes me wanna cry. "It will not work, forget it, if it would have been possible somebody would have done it already, blah blah blah..."
You can laugh all you want, just wait until we start building a solid system around my 2 clouds indicator and do some backtesting. You'll see...
The stories of all the greatest scientists in the world were not about suppression and criticism. They were about liberation. Liberation is about setting yourself free from your biases. You are embedded in an attitude that will kill any idea from the git-go. Why? Because you've accepted defeat.
Developing a trading strategy is no different than developing a strategy to go to Mars. You enter with a "clean" mind. You have knowledge, you have your opinion. What you don't have is the conclusive result. And that's what you're supposed to work towards. If you can't clear your head of all the garbage that obviously has been accumulated, you are dead on the H2O.
Perhaps all of this will wiz by you at the speed of light. But at the end of the day, YOU are defeating your own project.
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There is a HUUUUUUUUGE difference between learning from a tip or two from you and being told to sit there, shut up and listen and being brainwashed by things that I've heard 100 times in my past 14, then again 15 years because I started learning about Futures in 2004.
Right now, I need programming help to convert my code and then I will need help to find the best entry points and that's about it. I don't need anything else.
Merlin, although the appearance of your indicators look great on the chart, it’s trading on the right hand side of the chart that is most important. Can I suggest you write your exact entry and exit rules out on paper and implement those rules 100% of the time. You might find this will allow you to focus on the absolute specifics and might help you nail down a system that works in real time.
When I have a free moment tomorrow I will try and post an image of what my system looks like (as it looks something similar to yours) but with firm rules, I am able to trade the system with confidence as I’ve done extensive back testing that has supported the underlying idea and theory.
All the best with your journey.
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I never told you to sit still. I told you to clean the trash out of your head. You need programming help? Learn to program yourself. How can you expect a programmer to interpret your ideas when they're obviously complex and out of the norm?
The only person who can do that is YOU.
When I was on TS I developed a program in EL which was essentially a template in a "fill in the blanks" format for strategy development. I don't know if EL has changed that much in the intervening years, but at the time a lot of people liked it. There were a few others as well. If you would clear the sh&***(((t out of your head and just do it yourself, your results might be a lot more interesting.
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I don't have any trash in my head, YOU say I do because I don't want to sit and listen to your. Sorry, it won't happen.
That's what I did with EasyLanguage, I bought some books and learned it. How do you think I created this indicator? Yes I got help at the beginning for my Squared MA but after that, it's all MY CODE.
However C# is on another planet for me. I can't do it and with the help of a few programmers interested, I will send them my code and save months of learning C#.
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Let's see how many things you change and list as reasons/excuses things didn't work, but you fixed by changing something etc, between now and whenever you stop posting.
I mention this because I am a trader and I know patterns when I see them...
I also live posted every trade I took for months with cash, brokerage statements, etc and unlike you trading from a position of fear of loss due to undercapitalization, I had days that were +/- ~50k or so. All live posted traded with cash. And in my journal. Of course you'd have to pony up to our worthless "club" to have access to the Elite content.
Anyway, I'm done now. I'm not in a good mood, my dog is seriously sick and having major surgery, and I'm getting upset trying to convince you to stop wasting your time with the direction your going. I shouldn't keep posting when having this poor attitude, because it's not representative of our community so a whole, we all try hard here to actually help people.
Just remember, we all grow up. We all start from somewhere. Most of us as kids didn't like to take their medicine or eat their veggies. Yuck. You have this problem, you don't want to take your medicine. You'll get sick, and hopefully recover.
Most of us here trying to help you (still!!) - it's not to prove you wrong. It's to help you save time, money, and get educated by sharing what is already known.
So don't use C++. TS has a complete library of math functions. It's an object-oriented language. You shouldn't need a programmer for this. I looked at your charts. Chances are I could reverse engineer what you're doing in an hour.
You're making a huge mistake by not doing this yourself. How does a child learn a language? Repeating what they hear and then transcribing it in their brain. And voila - they can speak. Think about it.
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My constructive input would be to ensure you have very fixed rules for entry. It appears, based on what you've shared so far (but of course I could be wrong), that you may not be taking every signal or entering some with discretion.
I will eagerly await your testing results!
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Once the indicator code will be done, I will post it on the forum and everybody will be able to chip in and tell me how it can be inserted in a profitable strategy.
According to your own words, you don't have a system here. All you have is an indicator that maybe looks good. You want other people to come up with rules, ie a system, based on your indicator. And you start a thread about making a million in 10 weeks. Do you see how that comes across? If you know EL, then you should have been able to do all this work yourself on TS. But for some reason you didn't and now you want other people to come up with a system for you, and you want this for no charge? Will this system be automated? Trading a .3 renko chart on the Russell is a very fast chart. Will you be able to enter the trades fast enough? If you wanted help, this method is maybe not the best way to go about it. I really do wish you luck and I hope you can say I told you so but it seems like you are lazy.
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How would you have entered there? According to your own words, you do not have rules to define entry or exit other than risk 5 ticks to make 50 ticks.
You posted Tim's backtest results but that was Tim using HIS system, not yours. He was using your money management method which is fine and fair, but he had a system. All you have is an indicator. No system. It's very easy to look at the left side of a chart and say I would have entered here and exited here with my 50 ticks.
I don't trade the micro TF but does it have enough liquidity to handle 18 contracts? Again, a .3 renko chart is very fast.
Your statement about not paying because it has value does not make any sense. If it has value, then you should have paid to get it coded last week because it has value. You can always get the programmer to sign a non-disclosure agreement. You want other people to create a system for you, using your indicator.
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I continue to increase the contract size by 1 as my account size grows. The idea is to use my earnings in the futures market to fund the next contract. I want to make 1 deposit into my brokerage account and never have to make another deposit into it again.
That was a big topic of discussion on TradeStation as to what is the bottleneck on the liquidity of the Russell to be able to get in and out with 50+ contracts.
Nobody on TS, despite their years of experience seem to know the max number of Russell Mini contract (RTY) we can get in or out without suffering large slippage even on limit orders.
As you can see, we start with the Micro M2K contract but fairly soon move to the Mini RTY contract but at this point, we believe that we will stall around Level-5. That will be part of the test once the indicator and system will be programmed and backtested.
That's the beauty of this concept because by starting at only $25, we don't really care (ok maybe a little hehe) whether we lose it all at the $50,000 or $100,000 level because we will know we started with only $25 and we played with the stock market's money.
Interesting thread, but the money management is pretty basic like many posters here put it. There are alot more refined ones. If you are looking to do this I suggest you study pyramiding into trades and that allows for achieving 1 to 5 r&r on average volatility. Say for example you have 1 entry with 1 r risk, if it trends you can add 1 more entry and move your stops to the first entry's position and get 1r risk but price is increasing at 2r per 1r volatility value. Hence by moving 2r you get 3r rewards for 1r risk. 3r volatility value you will get 5r returns on 1r risk.
Btw money management like this is really old and you can see people like Jesse Livermore doing it.
Just that, you need a trading model which is really good to work it, and by trying for 10 to 1 r and r, the implied reasoning is you need a really strong trend or very good timing, just that whipsaws will kill your system, plus you need to see if the pairs volatility supports it. I can tell you by experience if you can hit a 1 to 3 r and r with a 40% to 45% accuracy rate, it's good enough. With this kinds of system you will meet alot of scratch trades.
As is common knowledge(to be debated in my opinion) the markets range 70% of the time and trends 30% of the time, so as for how many percentage are whipsaws, and are gonna chop you up, nobody knows. So you will have to handle the chops and ranges as, your entries risk and reward are defined by the volatility factor in these types of market environment, so, you may want to keep things realistic.
Btw, I can tell you, usually it's when the markets environment changes that's what gets these systems. That's when you will have to check your stats and risk of ruin to see if it's still feasible.
Why do I know this? Well I guess I have tried it before and I understood the catches to these kinds of systems and, well I didn't do as well as what I thought would(which is what you wrote in your first post), just to clue you in, the other posters ain't wrong either, they are just trying to ground you in reality.
End of the day, I guess the best focus is on trying to minimize drawdown and trying to stay afloat would be the number one priority. It's not just how much you make that matters, how much you don't lose matters more.
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I am going out of sim in a few days, so my 1 contract at a time journey will begin soon.
I have to think though, if you were using real money and you got to that $100,000 level, could you really stomach doubling down and going for broke. It's one thing to say "no big deal", but another to actually go through with it when you see that figure in your trading account. Knowing you had that much and just going for broke, could really damage your psyche, even if you tried to do it again. I would maybe think that strategy through and say, whats the rush? There comes a point when you can earn enough to take care of your needs and have extra while slowly growing the account. Even if it took say 3-5 years, you would be building trust and confidence in your system and yourself along the way. You could still enjoy the fruits of your labor while controlling risk and building to that millionaire level. I look forward to testing these out once they become available. I also don't look at it as the markets money. It's money you earned through the many hours spent studying and testing the markets to get to this point. It should be respected and protected along the journey.
Good trading
Joe H.
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It was a figure of speech, of course I would be nervous trading $100,000.
Besides, do you remember my "3 doublings and back" method?
The first time you reach the end of level after 3 doublings (from 1 to 2 contracts, 2 to 4 and 4 to 8), you should always put all the money in the bank and start that level again a 2nd time but now you will have 8 blocks in the bank to restart that level.
So if we can reach the $100,000 level (which I don't think we will btw) there will be plenty of orange back levels waiting for us as a safety net (Orange $25,000, $8,000, $2,000, $500, $100) before we lose the original green $25 that started it all so I won't be freakin out that much.
Sure it will suck but I will bring back the other $25,000 and try to double it to $50,000 and then double it again to $100,000. All we need is 5 pts.
Back in 2014 the average daily range of the Russell Mini contract was around 14 pts, today it's double that amount (28.9 pt in 2018) so 5 pts is still a lot but I believe it's doable. Not everyday because some days the RTY is stuck in a range.
I work with this indicator now several years, it is not a system and it is lagging, but can give you nice direction indication, nothing more. the code itself is just a few lines.
I use it in a system on sierra charts, but the entries are based on other indicators. I use it on the Gold, CL and DAX and currencies, I think the Russell is a bit to fast to get good entries consistently.
I shared the code on tradestation (and used it mainly on TS / Multicharts) a while back, you can now also get it for MT4, under a different name, but since MT4 uses mainly time bars, it does not show up that nice.. I had it programmed for Sierra charts and I still use it a lot. After TS, I just love the capabilities from SC!
Do a bit of "googeling" yourself and you will find the eld or MT4 version if you want to see the code.. Yes, do not ask me, do the work yourself, "it is not about the destination, but the journey where you learn the most"..
I wish Merlin all the best, although I think it is all about trading and making money, not about showing graphics and ones in a while a live trade. Like myself, we are all a bit of a dreamer. :-) But I like his positive energy, and surely wish he will soon show a lot of great live trades!
Keep smiling, Nicolaas
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Nope, no lag with my indicator because the clouds are built with a Squared MA which is a center line of a Donchian Channel that is based on a fixed price (ex: 5 pts) instead of past bars like most MAs.
Because of that, if the threshold is exceeded by even 1 tick, the entire cloud color will change "down to the tick".
Like I said, years of experience pays off! But then again if I listen to the "experts here", I'm just a new 49 yr old "kid" who don't know shit about trading and apparenlty, I haven't been burn yet so... what do I know right?
Which part of it's based on a FIXED PRICE channel that you missed here?
Is is NOT based on past bars like regular MAs (ex: 9 or 50 MA). Because of that those type of MA lag, NOT MINE. Look at my 5 pt high channel here...
For example, say the channel is 5 pts high and the price makes 1 tick ABOVE that high, the ENTIRE channel is being crossed ON THAT SINGLE TICK the color of the channel changes and because my Squared MA is the center line of that channel, it also changes color and since the clouds are created with those squared MAs, they also change color instantly.
So as you can see with a zoom of that channel, when the price hits the border of that channel, if the price pushes the channel even 1 tick higher.... BOOM.... the entire channel and my squared MA in the center changes color.
Do you get it now? If you don't then don't bother reply because I won't.
Of course I can see it, I came up with the idea, programmed it and found out others did the same, all good..
And yes it can react, depending on the settings, even on one tick, but that does not mean anything jet.
It all looks nice in hindsight, but what about the right end edge, and trade live with a very small stop-loss(?) you need more then just an overall direction indication. And do not get me wrong, I love it for that use!
But even with a 5 pt channel, what gives you the confidence that it would not change direction at moment of entry? your Squared Moving Average(?).
Please make 100 live entries and post your findings.. lets be realistic here..
Anyway going back to "live" trading..
PS: any MA can change color instantly on one single tick :-)
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It sounds like you have been thinking about this "millionaire in 10 weeks" thing for years.
When you say you have "years of experience", is that making money, if so why not carry on just doing what you are doing and accumulating wealth. Or losing money over the long term, if the latter then lots of us have years of experience of that too.
Good luck on the new account. I'll come back in three months and look forward to seeing the results.
Trading, ideally structured, is a vehicle for expanding consciousness, not damaging it. - Brett Steenbarger
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The only thing I get is that your level of delusion is only matched by the masters of our current worldwide financial Aliceland.
I am genuinely sorry that you cannot take a deep breath and just listen to what many experienced folks have been trying to point out in so many valuable posts. There are so may flaws in your thinking it beggars belief, just listening to the information offered rather than reacting as you do would save you a world of pain and wasted time.
Seriously, we've tried.
Travel Well
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I have only read a few pages of this post. I have seen and studied a lot of different trading ideas.
What I suggest is you implement your system trading a modest number of contracts. Post your daily results in a journal.
It is my experience that paper trading we can see all the entry and exit points clearly but when you have money on the line it is different. Make these real trades so you can post your true results until then this is all speculation.
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You cannot deny a person the opportunity to learn the lesson for themselves. You can only mature and expand into new discoveries once the delusion has been stripped away. This must happen. He will be better for it.
I look forward to this because if he bombs badly, MerlinWorld probably wont post again for a long while.
But, if he makes his million, I will be downloading this indicator and trading his method with the utmost urgency
win win.
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Stop is way too tight. 5 ticks risk for 50 ticks reward. You also mentioned 1 tick stops basically entering the exact tops and bottoms and while using renko bars. It looks like you are hindsight trading. There is also position limits and liquidity issues. At minimum you will be required to be accurate 9.09% of the time with this 10:1 risk reward ratio to be profitable.
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I don't and I NEVER said it would do that. Nobody can predict the price but that's NOT the topic of discussion here. The topic is whether or not this cloud indicator...LAGS...OR....NOT....and... IT DOESN'T...PERIOD.
Oh you might want to reconsider that. I believe interesting performance report will be posted sooner than that.
Like I said, I got burned in 2005 and want to take my time to get it right.
First, I knew that minute bars were too dangerous so many of us on TradeStation voted to get those price based bars (Range, Kase, Renko, etc) but I think TreadeStation only added them up in 2011 or 12 so that kinda delayed things for me but as you can tell I'm not in a rush.
Second, when you lost $22,000 you got burned real hard and it takes a while to recover from this. Even if you can find the money, you just don't get back in like some hot head and throw it back again to the market.
I needed to make some evil Machiavellian long term "Shawshank Redemption Style" plan to get my revenge on that Stock market form hell so I looked and red 1000s of post on TradeStation which I consider to be the best forum by far (sorry Big Mike, that's why I signed up here in 2013 but decided to go at TradeStation instead) to learn as much as I could by watching and learning form the best of the best, the elite of the elite, the gods of programming and their crazy indicators and charts that all look like Christmas trees. FASCINATING is the correct word here.
So I took all this info and added them all to my research started in 2004 by Micheal Parness (Remember that one guys called from the crazy Trend Trading to win infomercial? hehe).
This is where I am. I don't know everything (nobody does) but I can hold my own, probably could teach these "experts" here a thing or two.
So who cares it it takes another 5 years to reach that plan. If I tell you that you will be a millionaire in 5 years, would you take it or say NAAAAAHHH no thanks?
Anyway, we'll see, I'm in no hurry, 1 month, 1 year, 5 years, no problem, I can wait.
Go the previous page and watch the post where I have a screenshot of my channel and explain it to the guy (who apparently invented it hehehe) how it worked.
You need to consider that other scenario, the one that your "trader ego" totally ignores thinking that I don't know shit and I will hit the brick wall at 100 Mph and yet peeking one eye on this thread juuuuuuuuust in case I would be right.
Now don't worry, if my plan fails obviously, I will get out because I will be the joke of the town but if it works!!! OMG...Talk about a MAJOR slap to your ego. OUUUUUUCCCHHHH!
So yeah don't worry I will leave too because this place will be a sad place to be. You will all be millionaires but DAMN, your soul will be shaken to the core.
I think you are wrong here...
Futures.io is a well moderated community. We try to not laugh when someone fails because we have been there. The resistance you are feeling from the community is not them trying to indoctrinate you or make you feel badly. Most of us have been there done that and only want to suggest you tread lightly so you don't lose again.
In my case, I have done EXACTLY what you are doing and the results were less than spectacular.
If you succeed, I will rejoice but if you fail I won't throw rocks.
Rejoice in the Thunderstorms of Life . . .
Knowing it's not about Clouds or Wind. . .
But Learning to Dance in the Rain ! ! !
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In a not so long ago past, I would have totally agreed with you but not today.
Why? Because after all the market (Russell 2000) is still jumping all over the place and that hasn't changed so why not agree today?
Because of this cloud indicator.
Hindsight or live you get THE EXACT SAME CHART, a place where the indicator shows "EXTENDED DIPS" and just like a rubber band, it has room to expand...UNTIL... it is stretched to the max.
At this point, the band doesn't have a lot of room left to expand...AND THAT... is why even a 1-2 ticks stop outside all these double bottoms/tops could make AAAAALLLLLLLL the difference here.
TOTALLY GAME CHANGER.
Look at all the double bottoms/tops it did today and it was not even noon yet?
Yeah yeah, Renko bars create fake bars that skew your backtest but again, not THAT MANY BARS!!!
In MultiCharts, there is still a checkbox you can check and that will remove those fake filled "Phantom Bars" and you won't see a TON of holes in the chart, just a few missing bars here and there maybe 1 every 500 or 1,000 bars. I can deal with that.
You can even check the "Show Wick" checkbox and start to see the wicks giving you a more accurate view of where the price actually went down during those double bottoms.
When you got bit by the tiger, you take your time the next time you try to kill it. You watch, observe from a far, analyze and look for patterns, habits, vulnerabilities AND THEN... you move for the kill.
In other words, I am not ready yet.
If you think you are go ahead, jump in but you better be prepared or else you will come here and well... get indoctrinated.
Ok load the M2K or RTY chart, set your cloud to 10 and 12 pts in height (not X bars back like Moving Averages here) and try to make it look so that you see juuuuuuuuust a few peaks below the cloud.
That's what I call "Extended Dips" and at that level, the price is SUPER extended and that's where EVERY TICK counts because there is not a lot of room left otherwise the price will hit my threshold and the clouds will change color as it did on the upper right.
Hey guys, I know for many "experts" here, what I'm about to post means nothing but even though I don't have my system programmed and automated yet, I was looking at my indicator and saw that on my TradeStation chart.
A double top ABOVE the darkest cloud, I couldn't resist so I switched to my Multicharts software and Sold 2 M2K contracts short and this happened.
So all my crazy ideas are becoming true now. Entry at a double top and BOOM...5 pts (100% ROI) in less than 3 minutes. Not bad.
My first trade last Friday was my 1st doubling from $25 to $50 and now I just double again from $50 to $100 (I think I did another 2 contract trade 2 days ago, hmm, anyway, it works).
It won't work every time of course but at least it's possible and that's all I need.
Pardon me, Big Mike, and to the Community at large, as I balance out the many genuinely good-hearted responses here to the OP. I hope my tone will not violate our terms and conditions. If it does, please consider myself already duly warned (but do what you must and I'll accept it on its face).
There were several amazing aspects about Jeopardy!'s James Holzhauer's $2 million plus winning streak this year which kept me glued to the screen, first in amusement, but soon in awe, and then later in thoughtful consideration as I struggled to understand it. It was that unusual. I wasn't alone, either.
Such demonstrations are rare and it was being played out in public. Many eventually picked up on it, including all major media outlets, primarily for its novelty and also because this might be the last year with Alex Trebek, who'd recently been diagnosed with late stage Pancreatic Cancer yet soldiered on to the end of taping. Many of us thought, "What a way to end the show!" (while silently and vocally wishing for Mr. Trebek to one day be in that 5% who survive). He is truly a gentleman. I am not.
James Holzhauer came out of nowhere but we quickly learned he was different from most players. Key among those factors were his in-depth knowledge in correct answers to all play challenges issued (not merely clever snarky responses to anyone who offers advice or asks questions); his money management specifically designed to compliment his near flawless play (as opposed to not having any "play" yet and ignoring outright even the most fundamental Gambler's Fallacy); like Trebek, Holzhauer came to play each and every day with focus, commitment, and sheer will (as opposed to not caring if it takes 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, or 5 years, whatever); Holzhauer stood publicly in front of The World and played his game with real money (unlike sim "wins"); while he displayed a confidence that was based on earned merit, backed by demonstrable earnings day after day (as opposed to starting a silly screed defensively because "whaa, whaa don't hurt me" from some other blog); and his strategy which was so novel after 30+ years of the show--to START with the highest paying answers and work down from there (as opposed to thinking himself so novel that even the fictional Lieutenant Sulu back in the 1960's had explained this "new" approach, "It's like having a penny and doubling it every day; in a month you'll be a millionaire"). What a blunt contrast between a true innovator and a poser.
But that's not even the most interesting part to me. The most interesting part to me--predictably to us old timers--was how Holzhauer's streak eventually came to an end. One day, his last on the show, the system--i.e. the structure of the game, the players he competed with, and pure randomness--wiped him out. On that last day, as champion he got to choose first and as usual picked a $1000 (highest paying) answer, which turned out to be that round's Daily Double. He got paid for it, but only the base amount of $1000, rather than hitting that square randomly much later in the round and doubling up as he usually did, which typically stretched his lead in the first 15 minutes. Then in Double Jeopardy, his worthy opponent randomly got both of the remaining Daily Doubles. And while his opponent was nowhere nearly as aggressive a bettor as Holzhauer, it was enough to put him slightly in the lead for Final Jeopardy. Inasmuch as both players were flawless (neither missed an answer the entire game, and the other player was in a distant third), Holzhauer's streak was over. Despite not having missed a single answer, the randomness (and truly wicked yet still random first pick) nullified all his advantages. After so many brilliant games, the universe lined up another way.
As it will for all of us someday, if not in trading, then certainly in Life.
Thus, after so many posts I ask if it's a case of Asperger's, Trolling, or Willful Ignorance? You be the judge. As for me, there's no more time to waste here. As for the OP, I don't care what its (his/her?) reply is, it doesn't matter a wit. Like the SEAL Command Master Chief in the movie "G.I. Jane" so succinctly dismisses: When I want your opinion, I'll give it to you.
My only regret is that, since the OP will only ever play sim, I won't ever have the pleasure of taking his $25 from him.
Or was it $50 in sim by now? So hard to keep track with such a stellar performance. Better yet, I claim I took his $50 in sim funds. Yeah, that's it--his trading platform lied to him. If he can make up shit, the rest of us can, too.
So yeah, Wannabe, you're dismissed. Or I am. Either way, no more wasting my time... so I win.
Either way.
Mailmon
BTW... loved the photo of the private plane's wing tip over New York's Empire State Building. Atlas didn't shrug there!
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The fact is unless you prove it with actual live trading its another indicator that looks good but who knows if it works. You make a lot of claims but no proof because you can't show it with actual live trades. You can show me charts all day but that doesn't mean that they are live trades. It could all be hindsight.
If you want to see why everyone questions your claims then go to Ninja's website and look at all the secondary vendors of "proprietary" indicators that promise the same things you are. Note that they will take your money and if it doesn't work they found another sucker, no refund.
Every one here has blown up at least one trading account and I think will find that it is 2 or 3 accounts. We have all had great ideas and paper traded the idea. Some were winners some were losers. The question is did we win more than we lost. Don't worry about trying to prove your concept to any one. Just do it. If you are right it won't take very long to make money even starting from a small account.
You've spent a lot of time writing all this but from what I see it has only frustrated you. The reality is that not everyone has the temperament to trade. If you are not ready trade live but want some second opinions on how it works why not ask 2 or 3 people here to try it on paper trading and if they have confidence in it go live and you can find out if it works in the real world.
Good luck with your trading,
Tunetyme
The following user says Thank You to Tunetyme for this post:
Now this at last is a worthwhile post. You showed your signal and you showed your entry. That's really all you need to do, all the rest is pretty useless.
Why do you think I waste my time here answering all those questions. Finally some programmers are jumping in and will convert into C# the EL code of my 2 clouds indicator AND THEN we will start to program a strategy around it AND THEN we will post backtests AND THEN improve the strategy AND THEN when/if we find something interesting we will post lots of screenshots like this.
If I was bit the tiger but now be so convinced as you are about this indicator, I would head for the goal in one straight line. I’d be testing this thing in a live environment on sim, identifying setups, experiment with scaling, etc.
And when the market is closed, I would evaluate all trades, collect stats, learn coding in C# (this thing is easy to code by the way), focus on finding a developer that would want to work with me, etc.
In other words, I would be very busy and devote all my available time on it. I would not spent my valuable time debating on a public forum since that would not get me closer to my goal. But that’s me. I’m not you.
Go go go go go trade trade trade Buy Sell Buy Sell Buy Sell wait whaaaaaaaaaaatt?? What do you mean margin call????
No more funds in my account??? How did that happen?? Hhmmm..
I just talked about it in my last post.
1- Convert my 2 clouds indicator in C# to fit in my MultiCharts trading platform (being done as we speak)
2- Install this indicator in MultiCharts M2K chart
3- Brainstrom with "positive" programmers/traders as to where would be the best entries related to this indicator, because in case you don't know, an indicator DOES NOT make you a kick ass Trading System and without a VERY good system (kinda like Tim on TradeStation who went to the Million mark in 10 weeks with his system) this indicator and myself and everyone involved are going nowhere.
4- Backtest every good idea until we make our 5 pts profit on most days in a row
5- Sim/Paper trade
6- Buy a HUUUUUUGE $25 M2K Micro Russell 2000 contract and gamble away my life's nest egg.
7- Crash and Burn, roll into a ball in the corner and cry, crawl back to the forum, receive 2,453 "I TOLD YOU SO" forum and PM msg, signup up for the Elite Club, be brainwashed by "Real Expert Traders", come back out and become a billionaire because NOW... I will know how to trade. Right guys??
..... #7??? pffff in your dreams, over my dead body.
Every single trend is nothing more than a series of broken double tops or double bottoms. In a historical chart you only see the ones that get left behind, not the ones that got destroyed, which is one of the many, many reasons why pretty charts are so alluring.
In real time at the right hand edge neither you, your indicator, God, the gods, me or my cat know whether you are shorting/buying a dream entry or about to get run over by a breakout bus. Only when you grasp this simple point will you understand just how limited this kind of stuff is, to say nothing of any channel based trend follower in choppy or fractal shift conditions, with or without squared MA's and fixed point size nonsense.
Best of luck.
Travel Well
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But EXACTLY WHEN... (as in post the link to the page and specific post) that I said that EVERY single double top will turn out as a winner?
WHEN???
Oh yeah, that's right... I NEVER SAID THAT.
The whole point is observe what you see with that very interesting indicator as possible entries. Until I can program it in C# and add a very good strategy to it and then backtest all these ideas, I won't know what's working so why would I listen to you or anyone else, nobody has a clue because NOBODY has seen this exact indicator.
Everyone shows me similar Price Channels but they are not like mine and even if they are (based on a fixed price and not X previous bars like almost all indicators on the planet) they have not extracted a centerline to make a cloud out of it and repeat that to have a short TF and Medium TF cloud.
I KNOW because I come from the mecca of programming heaven where the best programming and trading gods are located (TradeStation) and in my 14 years there, I have NEVER seen something that comes even close to it. Bollinger Bands, Donchian Channel, Keltner Channel, etc... they are NOT based on a fixed price, so they all lag.
I coded a fully automated strategy a few years ago trying to earn tons of money in just a few months. The backtesting was really good: from 1000$ to 2 milion$ in just 3 months. After 1 year I got 10M$. The money management part was very similar to the one you posted here, dividing 1000$ in just 100$ blocks and using just one of them to do the increase. In my case, when a 100$ block doubled I added another of the 100$ blocks with a 50% risk. So they were "lagging": some blocks were doubling on the 10k$ part while others were on the 100$ part yet. It was like a pyramid. About the strategy, it was a breakout strategy, different from what you are presenting us. I did some Montecarlo simulations and the results were interesting: a few times it went bankrupt but most of them it increased the account at least in a 500%.
With those results, I just started on SIM and crushed it. From 1k$ to 400K$ just the first month. After 4 months on SIM I decided to go live, because the risk/reward was worth it. I think everyone here know what happened next. I lost the 1000$ in just 3 weeks. The funny thing is that I had a SIM account at the same time using the same strategy. While my live account went bankrupt in 3 weeks, my SIM account won 80k$.
I tell you this because although Tim results are incredible, the results are on a backtest, not real. You have to be very careful about that! Don't trust 100% those results and try to do some "real" tests before. Maybe this is the reason why Tim didn't use his strategy with your MM in his account. Not because he didn't want to be millionaire but he couldn't reproduce the same results on live.
I wish you the best of luck with your strategy and I hope you can succeed! It's a big challenge!
Good trading and better results to all of you.
MC
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I think what no one has said is that most of have been able to come up with an automated system that shows equally impressive backtesting results, and then found that it does not translate to real time (even real time sim) trading. This seems especially true for systems based on range bars, since the bars are formed after the fact.
If you want to gain some credibility, post the trades as soon as they are entered in your sim account (15-min delay), e.g, BEFORE you know if they will work out or not.
Best of luck,
Zogger99
The following 2 users say Thank You to Zogger99 for this post:
I'm NOT here to gain credibility or make friends. I don't really care what you all think of me, I already had a pretty good idea when the thread exploded to 5000+ views and I had receive NO positive feedback yet and now we are borderline 10,000 in just 4-5 days.
Site Administrator Swing Trader Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
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Moderator Notice
@MerlinWorld, you need to stop being so rude in your posts. If you continue to be rude, you will be banned without further warning.
This community is here to help. Yet you act against the community in nearly every single post you make.
BTW, the thread "exploded" with views because it was featured in our newsletter, to help educate other traders who are learning the same things you are.
The majority of us accept that to be a successful trader we must continually learn and adapt, and we are members of this community to help each other -- not to simply take without giving (you've stated multiple times you only want someone to program for you, forget any and all other replies).
Because maybe not to you but to me, A LOT of those thread are not about "helping me" but more about "indoctrination" I will stop replying to the majority of posts (99%) that I don't like.
This way, this community will regain it's tranquility.
Your believe that an automated strategy around this indicator will make you a millionaire in 10 weeks shows to me that you are still a rookie.
Not only should you get banned for rude behaviour on this neat forum, but also for keeping the dream for newbies alive that an indicator will make you rich.
You are also spending way too much on this forum, while you’d be spending your valuable time in learning and finding an edge with this indicator if you really believed in it.
I believe you have other intentions than finding a developer to code for you.
Nope, I never like people who did that. If you have a money making machine as a system, why the hell would you charge people for it $299, $999, or even $25,000 when you can trade the next day and get it yourself without the hassle of pushing some sale down people's throat.
Don't worry, I will come back here and post screenshots of this system once it's built as long as this thread is not deleted and I'm not banned which seems almost inevitable by now.
I admit that I'm in a small minority of people that wish you would temper your approach but the only way you will get banned is if you violate the wildly accepted and hard established decorum here.
EVERYONE here wants you to succeed in trading, and be happy in life.
You are hyper defensive, insecure and disrespectful. Those are hallmarks for some situation or something that you have been through in life...something that none of us know. Most of us can deal with that in a reasonable way. Really the guys that have been here a while have seen it all.
There are two things that I am trying to save you from and before you rage on me for saying that, consider, what from my experience would make me care at all about your outcome?
First, your arrogance smacks of foolishness. You think that it is enthusiasm for some certainty or edge that you have worked out in your project. This will lead to your ruin. That leads to the second...
There are a fair number of active members here that have a literal shit ton of experience across a diverse skill set. ALL of those people, to a man, will go out of their way to help you. You hear that as tell you you are wrong and sit down, shut up...whatever.
I'm asking you to amend your way of thinking, not your ideas about trading or the markets. If you can get to a place where you search out value with a spirit of gratitude and consider things fairly presented you will be able to dismiss things without harm.
If other members think that I have mis-characterized this or that my "advice" is not accurate I will happily submit to those considerations. If guys think I might make some sense, maybe they will say that as well.
If, on the other hand, you have found programmers to meet your perceived immediate needs maybe you will move on in short time as the forum's first Ten Week Merlinanaire.
Either way, All the Best, man. Be well. Trade well, and do well.
-Dan
The following 6 users say Thank You to wldman for this post:
is my first post on this forum also because I write very little on the internet, I hope to be able to express my thoughts. I think that deep down everyone has or has had a bit of merlinworld in them, it is curious to see how the merlinworld posts look like those of the rebellious son and the posts of the other members seem to talk to their teenage son who does not understands the message of their parents. Your approach to the forum with this post has exposed you a lot, I hope you are a "merlinworld" magician and that you can reach your goal.
Having said that, I would like to move quickly to a technical advice.
One of the biggest problems of a trading sytem is over optimization and surely this you already know. From my last studies I discovered that to be sure of achieving the results we want, we need to have not one but many good trading sytems.
By the way, this forum is beautiful and even its participants are very good people, it will certainly not be this post that puts it in a bad light.
Good trading at all
The following 6 users say Thank You to AsAboveSoBelow for this post:
1- My Million # climb idea will fail so i should drop it
2- That I should listen to you guys... and the true is I'M REALLY LISTENING but what can I say, I don't like what you are telling me to do.
How can I tell you "no Thank you" and pass without hurting your feelings and seeing another msg popup saying "this guy doesn't listen, he needs to listen, he HAS to listen to us".
- I'm NOT going to signup up for your trading boys club
- I'm NOT going to stop my now 15 years of research for the best trading system
- I'm NOT going to start a trading journal like so many here want me to do
So can we just PLEEEAAAAAAASSSEEEE... Agree to disagree and move on with our lives without me being kicked out because I don't do EXACTLY what you want me to do?
Just like Big Mike, I celebrate the 10 years of my forum this August. It's a forum on the power of The Subconscious Mind and throughout the years, I have NEVER stopped anyone from doing THEIR own THINKING and THEIR own RESEARCH and TESTS. I NEVER charged my members for anything, I believe in the power of the community and sharing ideas and testing concepts.
Every time some wise ass would come in and tell us "You guys don't get it, this is what you need to do instead" I would simply ban the guy at first.
Over time, I learned to listen because some had some good ideas so I ask them for proof and if they can duplicate their success by challenging them to repeat it and they all left and never came back on their own.
This is the approach I suggest you all take with me. You byte your tongue. keep thinking that I will fail, keep thinking that you guys are all willing to jump in and "help me" but... let me do my research and hit the brick wall on my own. Then...an maybe then, I will let you "save me".
Until then, just respect my research, my crazy idea no matter how stupid and certain you think it will fail and let me program this indicator with the help of programmers (it's already on it's way), build an interesting system around it and post some back testing reports here.
Do you think you can do that without ripping my head off?
Your response reveals you as a parasite. I'm not looking to be host for a parasite.
If you have no interest in our boys club I recommend that you be shown the door. Get your programmers to work things out today.
During all 15 years of your research and for 15 prior to that I have been feeding myself and providing well for a family...so actually doing what you are back-testing.
The site is built on journal and contribution in a collegial professional manner. Since you are none of those things and profess as such here. Again, I recommend you be shown the door.
-Dan
The following 3 users say Thank You to wldman for this post:
Now THAT is the kind of posts I like; a constructive one.
Because of my lack of programming skills, I read a couple books on EasyLanguage but was barely able to modify some code much less start a complex strategy with 100s of lines of code and even less in another more complex programming code like C++ or C#.
However, I believe in the power of the community and everybody has a role to play and programming is NOT my role. I'm good in analysis, I can look at a chart, an indicator or a trading strategy in extract the best of them.
I think it was Napoleon Hill who said that I'd rather have 1% of the brain of 100 men than 100% of the brain of 1 man.
In other words, my strength is in seeing things that not a lot people see but hey, I suck at programming so I will need the help of members who like my crazy ideas to push it further and many of you saw the potential (most didn't and laughed at it and rejected it right away thinking that it has been done before and that it will fail, etc) and I'm chatting with them.
Will we make it work? Don't know. This Million $ climb is the Everest of Trading but hey... Edmund Hillary managed to set his foot on top of it's summit for the first time, why can't we do the same with trading. Revolutionize this baby with kick ass new technologies (modern charts and bar types, super low cost trading instruments, fantastic trading software and super high speed connection to the markets, etc).
It's now or never the TIME to do it. 10 or even 5 years ago, all this would have been impossible to do and would be a dream but NOT TODAY.
The indicator code is not done (yet) but it's coming soon and then everyone interested with some trading knowledge and a bit of vision, will be able to jump in and add their 2 cents to improve it.
With the newest of trading technologies, we can reduce the amount of a losing trade down to a few ticks which is crucial for this project and the Russell 2000 had a daily range of only 5-6 pts when I learned about it in 2004. Today it makes close to 20 pts and over 100s of pts overall in ups and downs almost on a daily basis and all we need is 5 of those pts.
And of course the fact that these programmers came from THIS FORUM and 1000s of people have decided to read these threads and would like to see the end of this research...that for you is well... not important right? Just kick me out period who cares what the others think...right?
Here's a PM I just got.
By respect to his privacy, I will not of course say who sent it.
And in case you asked NO... he's not the only one here who sent me this type of PM so before you kick me out like a dog, you might wanna to respect the opinion of MANY other members here who want to hear me out and see where that research leads.
This is not an "idea". This is an insane one-sided conversation that took over the forum combined with lunacy and arrogance. You have members here that contributed time and effort (for years) while providing PRACTICAL ideas getting irritated and insulted by a member who is a theorist at best.
That is not fair to them, and the rest of the unregistered members who come to the site to learn.
Matt Z
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The following 4 users say Thank You to mattz for this post:
Now many will say that it's done at hindsight but to me, a formation is a formation is a formation meaning that it will be on your chart in hindsight and ALSO live as it is forming.
This means that once this formation is programmed in an automated strategy, the software will be able to recognize such programmed pattern and get you in or out of that trade.
Even though the indicator is not yet converted in C# and the strategy using it is not fully developed yet, I believe more and more now that Double Tops/Bottoms are the best entry with the help of this indicator.
And no, it's not perfect as you can see, we would have had 2-3 failed entries but a 1-2 ticks StopLoss ABOVE the Double Top would have taken us out with very little loss of $.
Eventually, as it went back down (typical head & shoulders pattern here) we caught one more and as you can see,, just like on yesterday, it was one of the best entry point of the day.
Now, because I had no way to know that it would do such a big move on the down side, I would have gotten out after making my 5 pts but hey, THAT IS ALL WE NEED to double our M2K contracts and move to the next column in my $25-M climb.
Guys, this is JUST ONE THREAD out of a beautiful trading forum that has 1000s of threads. If I am THAT BAD and EVIL, couldn't you just skip this thread next time?
I don't know about you but if a thread or a guy drives me nuts on a forum, I just do't go to his thread... I just don't.
But many of us, unlike you, are invested in this forum via money, time, and a genuine desire to help others by providing meaningful content and discussion about trading. We don't like to see garbage here.
And hell yeah to what Matt said. I said a couple days ago this thread should be nuked but instead it was given even more publicity, with the result being more faction and now warnings issued.
Money make ya handsome
The following user says Thank You to Pariah Carey for this post:
OMG...Talk about a MAJOR slap to your ego. OUUUUUUCCCHHHH!
