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Millionaire in 10 weeks & Conversation with broker
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Millionaire in 10 weeks & Conversation with broker

  #171 (permalink)
Jacksonville, FL
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
Posts: 9 since Aug 2018
Thanks: 41 given, 22 received

Aspberger's, Trolling, or Clueless?

Pardon me, Big Mike, and to the Community at large, as I balance out the many genuinely good-hearted responses here to the OP. I hope my tone will not violate our terms and conditions. If it does, please consider myself already duly warned (but do what you must and I'll accept it on its face).

There were several amazing aspects about Jeopardy!'s James Holzhauer's $2 million plus winning streak this year which kept me glued to the screen, first in amusement, but soon in awe, and then later in thoughtful consideration as I struggled to understand it. It was that unusual. I wasn't alone, either.

Such demonstrations are rare and it was being played out in public. Many eventually picked up on it, including all major media outlets, primarily for its novelty and also because this might be the last year with Alex Trebek, who'd recently been diagnosed with late stage Pancreatic Cancer yet soldiered on to the end of taping. Many of us thought, "What a way to end the show!" (while silently and vocally wishing for Mr. Trebek to one day be in that 5% who survive). He is truly a gentleman. I am not.

James Holzhauer came out of nowhere but we quickly learned he was different from most players. Key among those factors were his in-depth knowledge in correct answers to all play challenges issued (not merely clever snarky responses to anyone who offers advice or asks questions); his money management specifically designed to compliment his near flawless play (as opposed to not having any "play" yet and ignoring outright even the most fundamental Gambler's Fallacy); like Trebek, Holzhauer came to play each and every day with focus, commitment, and sheer will (as opposed to not caring if it takes 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, or 5 years, whatever); Holzhauer stood publicly in front of The World and played his game with real money (unlike sim "wins"); while he displayed a confidence that was based on earned merit, backed by demonstrable earnings day after day (as opposed to starting a silly screed defensively because "whaa, whaa don't hurt me" from some other blog); and his strategy which was so novel after 30+ years of the show--to START with the highest paying answers and work down from there (as opposed to thinking himself so novel that even the fictional Lieutenant Sulu back in the 1960's had explained this "new" approach, "It's like having a penny and doubling it every day; in a month you'll be a millionaire"). What a blunt contrast between a true innovator and a poser.

But that's not even the most interesting part to me. The most interesting part to me--predictably to us old timers--was how Holzhauer's streak eventually came to an end. One day, his last on the show, the system--i.e. the structure of the game, the players he competed with, and pure randomness--wiped him out. On that last day, as champion he got to choose first and as usual picked a $1000 (highest paying) answer, which turned out to be that round's Daily Double. He got paid for it, but only the base amount of $1000, rather than hitting that square randomly much later in the round and doubling up as he usually did, which typically stretched his lead in the first 15 minutes. Then in Double Jeopardy, his worthy opponent randomly got both of the remaining Daily Doubles. And while his opponent was nowhere nearly as aggressive a bettor as Holzhauer, it was enough to put him slightly in the lead for Final Jeopardy. Inasmuch as both players were flawless (neither missed an answer the entire game, and the other player was in a distant third), Holzhauer's streak was over. Despite not having missed a single answer, the randomness (and truly wicked yet still random first pick) nullified all his advantages. After so many brilliant games, the universe lined up another way.

As it will for all of us someday, if not in trading, then certainly in Life.

Thus, after so many posts I ask if it's a case of Asperger's, Trolling, or Willful Ignorance? You be the judge. As for me, there's no more time to waste here. As for the OP, I don't care what its (his/her?) reply is, it doesn't matter a wit. Like the SEAL Command Master Chief in the movie "G.I. Jane" so succinctly dismisses: When I want your opinion, I'll give it to you.

My only regret is that, since the OP will only ever play sim, I won't ever have the pleasure of taking his $25 from him.

Or was it $50 in sim by now? So hard to keep track with such a stellar performance. Better yet, I claim I took his $50 in sim funds. Yeah, that's it--his trading platform lied to him. If he can make up shit, the rest of us can, too.

So yeah, Wannabe, you're dismissed. Or I am. Either way, no more wasting my time... so I win.

Either way.

Mailmon

BTW... loved the photo of the private plane's wing tip over New York's Empire State Building. Atlas didn't shrug there!


Last edited by Mailmon; July 31st, 2019 at 05:33 PM.
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  #172 (permalink)
Raleigh NC USA
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Optimus
Favorite Futures: Emini, gold, currency
 
Posts: 34 since May 2018
Thanks: 95 given, 27 received

Merlin:

The fact is unless you prove it with actual live trading its another indicator that looks good but who knows if it works. You make a lot of claims but no proof because you can't show it with actual live trades. You can show me charts all day but that doesn't mean that they are live trades. It could all be hindsight.

If you want to see why everyone questions your claims then go to Ninja's website and look at all the secondary vendors of "proprietary" indicators that promise the same things you are. Note that they will take your money and if it doesn't work they found another sucker, no refund.

Every one here has blown up at least one trading account and I think will find that it is 2 or 3 accounts. We have all had great ideas and paper traded the idea. Some were winners some were losers. The question is did we win more than we lost. Don't worry about trying to prove your concept to any one. Just do it. If you are right it won't take very long to make money even starting from a small account.

You've spent a lot of time writing all this but from what I see it has only frustrated you. The reality is that not everyone has the temperament to trade. If you are not ready trade live but want some second opinions on how it works why not ask 2 or 3 people here to try it on paper trading and if they have confidence in it go live and you can find out if it works in the real world.

Good luck with your trading,

Tunetyme

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  #173 (permalink)
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013



Mailmon View Post
Either way, no more wasting my time...

Bye bye!


Tunetyme View Post
If you want to see why everyone questions your claims

No not really. have a nice day.

 
  #174 (permalink)
CA
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 108 since Sep 2009
Thanks: 727 given, 84 received


MerlinWorld View Post
Hey guys, I know for many "experts" here, what I'm about to post means nothing but even though I don't have my system programmed and automated yet, I was looking at my indicator and saw that on my TradeStation chart.

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A double top ABOVE the darkest cloud, I couldn't resist so I switched to my Multicharts software and Sold 2 M2K contracts short and this happened.

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So all my crazy ideas are becoming true now. Entry at a double top and BOOM...5 pts (100% ROI) in less than 3 minutes. Not bad.

My first trade last Friday was my 1st doubling from $25 to $50 and now I just double again from $50 to $100 (I think I did another 2 contract trade 2 days ago, hmm, anyway, it works).

It won't work every time of course but at least it's possible and that's all I need.

Now this at last is a worthwhile post. You showed your signal and you showed your entry. That's really all you need to do, all the rest is pretty useless.

More like this please.
Good luck

 
  #175 (permalink)
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013


cv2low View Post
Now this at last is a worthwhile post. You showed your signal and you showed your entry. That's really all you need to do, all the rest is pretty useless.

More like this please.
Good luck

Yes I know, I know.

Why do you think I waste my time here answering all those questions. Finally some programmers are jumping in and will convert into C# the EL code of my 2 clouds indicator AND THEN we will start to program a strategy around it AND THEN we will post backtests AND THEN improve the strategy AND THEN when/if we find something interesting we will post lots of screenshots like this.

Patience my friend...patience.

Merlin

 
  #176 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader 8
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Favorite Futures: CL, ES
 
GruttePier's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,519 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,574 given, 7,185 received


MerlinWorld View Post
When you got bit by the tiger, you take your time the next time you try to kill it. You watch, observe from a far, analyze and look for patterns, habits, vulnerabilities AND THEN... you move for the kill.



In other words, I am not ready yet.



If you think you are go ahead, jump in but you better be prepared or else you will come here and well... get indoctrinated.

If I was bit the tiger but now be so convinced as you are about this indicator, I would head for the goal in one straight line. I’d be testing this thing in a live environment on sim, identifying setups, experiment with scaling, etc.
And when the market is closed, I would evaluate all trades, collect stats, learn coding in C# (this thing is easy to code by the way), focus on finding a developer that would want to work with me, etc.
In other words, I would be very busy and devote all my available time on it. I would not spent my valuable time debating on a public forum since that would not get me closer to my goal. But that’s me. I’m not you.

What’s your plan in getting ready?

Nice trade btw.


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  #177 (permalink)
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013


GruttePier View Post
If I was bit the tiger but now be so convinced as you are about this indicator, I would head for the goal in one straight line. I’d be testing this thing in a live environment on sim, identifying setups, experiment with scaling, etc.

Aaaaannnnnnnddd that's how you lose your shirt.

Go go go go go trade trade trade Buy Sell Buy Sell Buy Sell wait whaaaaaaaaaaatt?? What do you mean margin call????

No more funds in my account??? How did that happen?? Hhmmm..



GruttePier View Post
What’s your plan in getting ready?

I just talked about it in my last post.

1- Convert my 2 clouds indicator in C# to fit in my MultiCharts trading platform (being done as we speak)

2- Install this indicator in MultiCharts M2K chart

3- Brainstrom with "positive" programmers/traders as to where would be the best entries related to this indicator, because in case you don't know, an indicator DOES NOT make you a kick ass Trading System and without a VERY good system (kinda like Tim on TradeStation who went to the Million mark in 10 weeks with his system) this indicator and myself and everyone involved are going nowhere.

4- Backtest every good idea until we make our 5 pts profit on most days in a row

5- Sim/Paper trade

6- Buy a HUUUUUUGE $25 M2K Micro Russell 2000 contract and gamble away my life's nest egg.

7- Crash and Burn, roll into a ball in the corner and cry, crawl back to the forum, receive 2,453 "I TOLD YOU SO" forum and PM msg, signup up for the Elite Club, be brainwashed by "Real Expert Traders", come back out and become a billionaire because NOW... I will know how to trade. Right guys??

..... #7??? pffff in your dreams, over my dead body.

Merlin

 
  #178 (permalink)
Birmingham UK
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: TST/Rithmic
Favorite Futures: YM/Gold
 
ratfink's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,652 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 17,422 given, 8,380 received


MerlinWorld View Post
Yup DEFINITELY those Double Bottoms/Tops Entry need to be consider later on in this backtest when the indicator will be programmed in C#.

Every single trend is nothing more than a series of broken double tops or double bottoms. In a historical chart you only see the ones that get left behind, not the ones that got destroyed, which is one of the many, many reasons why pretty charts are so alluring.

In real time at the right hand edge neither you, your indicator, God, the gods, me or my cat know whether you are shorting/buying a dream entry or about to get run over by a breakout bus. Only when you grasp this simple point will you understand just how limited this kind of stuff is, to say nothing of any channel based trend follower in choppy or fractal shift conditions, with or without squared MA's and fixed point size nonsense.

Best of luck.

Travel Well
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  #179 (permalink)
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 128 since Jan 2013


ratfink View Post
In real time at the right hand edge neither you, your indicator, God, the gods, me or my cat know whether you are shorting/buying a dream entry or about to get run over by a breakout bus.

Well I don't know your cat so, I can't tell...

But EXACTLY WHEN... (as in post the link to the page and specific post) that I said that EVERY single double top will turn out as a winner?

WHEN???

Oh yeah, that's right... I NEVER SAID THAT.

The whole point is observe what you see with that very interesting indicator as possible entries. Until I can program it in C# and add a very good strategy to it and then backtest all these ideas, I won't know what's working so why would I listen to you or anyone else, nobody has a clue because NOBODY has seen this exact indicator.

Everyone shows me similar Price Channels but they are not like mine and even if they are (based on a fixed price and not X previous bars like almost all indicators on the planet) they have not extracted a centerline to make a cloud out of it and repeat that to have a short TF and Medium TF cloud.

I KNOW because I come from the mecca of programming heaven where the best programming and trading gods are located (TradeStation) and in my 14 years there, I have NEVER seen something that comes even close to it. Bollinger Bands, Donchian Channel, Keltner Channel, etc... they are NOT based on a fixed price, so they all lag.

 
  #180 (permalink)
Barcelona, Spain
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS IB w Python API, NT
Broker/Data: InteractiveBrokers, XTB
Favorite Futures: YM, NQ, ES, DAX
 
marc2c's Avatar
 
Posts: 3 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 4 given, 9 received


I coded a fully automated strategy a few years ago trying to earn tons of money in just a few months. The backtesting was really good: from 1000$ to 2 milion$ in just 3 months. After 1 year I got 10M$. The money management part was very similar to the one you posted here, dividing 1000$ in just 100$ blocks and using just one of them to do the increase. In my case, when a 100$ block doubled I added another of the 100$ blocks with a 50% risk. So they were "lagging": some blocks were doubling on the 10k$ part while others were on the 100$ part yet. It was like a pyramid. About the strategy, it was a breakout strategy, different from what you are presenting us. I did some Montecarlo simulations and the results were interesting: a few times it went bankrupt but most of them it increased the account at least in a 500%.

With those results, I just started on SIM and crushed it. From 1k$ to 400K$ just the first month. After 4 months on SIM I decided to go live, because the risk/reward was worth it. I think everyone here know what happened next. I lost the 1000$ in just 3 weeks. The funny thing is that I had a SIM account at the same time using the same strategy. While my live account went bankrupt in 3 weeks, my SIM account won 80k$.

I tell you this because although Tim results are incredible, the results are on a backtest, not real. You have to be very careful about that! Don't trust 100% those results and try to do some "real" tests before. Maybe this is the reason why Tim didn't use his strategy with your MM in his account. Not because he didn't want to be millionaire but he couldn't reproduce the same results on live.

I wish you the best of luck with your strategy and I hope you can succeed! It's a big challenge!

Good trading and better results to all of you.

MC
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