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Directional Bias
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Directional Bias

  #31 (permalink)
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courier12 View Post
Thank you @Fat Tails. I went and re read the other posts and it became clear you use Prior Day and Day before Yesterday VWAP and Pviots for your bias. You do not use Today's VWAP for bias.

I was making mistake of comparing today's VWAP with Yesterday's VWAP for bias and not looking @ Day before Yesterday's VWAP.

So does today's vWAP carry any significance as far as trend bias goes?

Loved your posts on the other thread regarding Inversion and Ideal order of VWAPs and Pivots.

Thank you,

@courier12,

Sorry for the interruption,but as far as i`m concerned,he uses the current VWAP`s bands for entries/exits.But let`s hear from Fat Tails himself!

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  #32 (permalink)
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Thanks Cachevary.

Let me reframe the question: So use Yesterday's and Day before Yesterday's VWAP for trend bias

and use today's VWAP and Standard deviation bands only to time entries / exits and not to determine trend bias?


Cachevary View Post
@courier12,

Sorry for the interruption,but as far as i`m concerned,he uses the current VWAP`s bands for entries/exits.But let`s hear from Fat Tails himself!


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  #33 (permalink)
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courier12 View Post
Thanks Cachevary.

Let me reframe the question: So use Yesterday's and Day before Yesterday's VWAP for trend bias

and use today's VWAP and Standard deviation bands only to time entries / exits and not to determine trend bias?

Ecxactly right,use current VWAP`s bands for entries/exits and 2-D and 3-D VWAPs for the trend bias(at least from FT annotation).

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  #34 (permalink)
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Cachevary View Post
@Fat Tails,

i`d like to also ask,those Purple vertical lines to mark the Bonds RTH,if you apply them manually,or you have a study that does that?

Thanks

The chart has the anaDailyPivotsV42 indicator and an enhanced commercial version (not available open source) of the anaCurrentDayVWAPV42 applied. You can download the indicators here

https://futures.io/download/ninjatrader-7/indicators/371-download.html
https://futures.io/download/ninjatrader-7/indicators/674-download.html

but will need to draw the lines showing yesterday's VWAP and the VWAPs 2 and 3 days ago manually. Both indicators can be set to calculate from ETH or RTH data.

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  #35 (permalink)
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Fat Tails View Post
The chart has the anaDailyPivotsV42 indicator and an enhanced commercial version (not available open source) of the anaCurrentDayVWAPV42 applied. You can download the indicators here

https://futures.io/download/ninjatrader-7/indicators/371-download.html
https://futures.io/download/ninjatrader-7/indicators/674-download.html

but will need to draw the lines showing yesterday's VWAP and the VWAPs 2 and 3 days ago manually. Both indicators can be set to calculate from ETH or RTH data.

Neither one from the links you`ve given contains the Value Area feature.Is it also in the enhanced anaDailyVWAP version?If so,can you suggest the separate prior day Value Area indicator on futures.io (formerly BMT)?

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  #36 (permalink)
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courier12 View Post
Thank you @Fat Tails. I went and re read the other posts and it became clear you use Prior Day and Day before Yesterday VWAP and Pviots for your bias. You do not use Today's VWAP for bias.

I was making mistake of comparing today's VWAP with Yesterday's VWAP for bias and not looking @ Day before Yesterday's VWAP.

So does today's vWAP carry any significance as far as trend bias goes?

Loved your posts on the other thread regarding Inversion and Ideal order of VWAPs and Pivots.

Thank you,


There is not one bias for the trading day, but there are different lookback periods to consider.


3-day bias

I typically use a 3-day rolling VWAP to get an overview. The chart below shows that the trend bias changed from short to long on December 17. On December 18 price opened above the 3-day value area.

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The current day VWAP also shows a long scenario, as the average price of each consecutive day was higher. You would therefore buy value (yesterday's value area) or engage in an intraday countertrade. On such a day I am allowed to buy the lower 2SD band (in line with the long bias), but I am not allowed to sell the upper 2SD band. The upper 2SD band should only be used for exits.

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Trending or Range Bound Day

After a strong trending day, the probability for a range bound day is increased. As value has considerably shifted on the prior day, the new value area needs to be tested and either confirmed or rejected. On the contrary, if prices have been moving around directionless the prior day and closed in the middle of the daily range, a strong move becomes more likely. However, this case depends on the news that are expected for the current trading day. If there are no news, then another directionless day may follow.

The width of the pivot range can be used as indicator:

wide pivot range: yesterday closed near high or low, probability for a range bound day is increased
narrow pivot range: yesterday's market closed near the midline, you may expect a breakout (depending on news)

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  #37 (permalink)
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Fat Tails View Post
There is not one bias for the trading day, but there are different lookback periods to consider.

Thank you Fat Tails. The charts from last week are a big help!

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  #38 (permalink)
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Fat Tails View Post
There is not one bias for the trading day, but there are different lookback periods to consider.


Hi @Fat Tails:

Since you use 2 distinct measures for today's trend bias :

1. Yesterday and Day before Yesterday Pivots
2. Yesterday and Day before Yesterday VWAPs



From your experience, does one provide a better edge than the other ?
E.g. Say after a trend day, pivots tend to work better for trend bias.
E.g. if pivots and VWAP provide conflicting signals, generally Pivots tend to work better?


Or do they pretty much have an equal edge? Just thinking out aloud here.

Thank you,

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courier12 View Post
Hi @Fat Tails:

Since you use 2 distinct measures for today's trend bias :

1. Yesterday and Day before Yesterday Pivots
2. Yesterday and Day before Yesterday VWAPs



From your experience, does one provide a better edge than the other ?
E.g. Say after a trend day, pivots tend to work better for trend bias.
E.g. if pivots and VWAP provide conflicting signals, generally Pivots tend to work better?


Or do they pretty much have an equal edge? Just thinking out aloud here.

Thank you,

I use both VWAPs and pivots on my chart. They reflect different timeframes, for example

Today's prices are above the main pivot PP -> meaning: the market trades above yesterday's value
Today's prices are above the current day's VWAP -> meaning: the market trades above today's value
The pivot range is up -> meaning: yesterday's close was in the upper half of the range, the bull trend is the first scenario retained, unless pivot range is broken

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  #40 (permalink)
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Fat Tails View Post
I use both VWAPs and pivots on my chart. They reflect different timeframes, for example

Today's prices are above the main pivot PP -> meaning: the market trades above yesterday's value
Today's prices are above the current day's VWAP -> meaning: the market trades above today's value
The pivot range is up -> meaning: yesterday's close was in the upper half of the range, the bull trend is the first scenario retained, unless pivot range is broken

@Fat Tails,

could you please provide with more details?Main pivot PP is equal the previous day VWAP?And what does the ''pivot range is up'' mean?Hard to guess,an image maybe?

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