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I Can't Make a Friend of the Trend
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Created: by Leon of Pizza Attachments:6

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I Can't Make a Friend of the Trend

  #11 (permalink)
St. Louis
 
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1st practice

Tried it out on Pres day. This is the journal entry:

Replay. RTY 2/15/19. Attempt to condition myself for with-trend will to participate. First practice so made some rules:

1. General replay and sim rules - except the random pick. Pick a known trend day.
2. No counter-trend trades.
3. Exit at all regular T1 exits. This makes for more with-trend planning and entry experience, because it puts me flat more often and for more time. (Size is still limited to 2, so just canít buy bigger and swing).

Presidents day and started 6h or more late. I immediately noticed that my memory of the day wasnít right and this feeling carried through to quitting time. They made a series of contracting bull flags through the day. I knew the first 2 were big enough to stop me out, but wasnít sure beginning around late morn. I didnít feel any bullish certainty, like I expected, but rather the regular level of uncertainty that is average for most days. Being wed to the with-trend side felt like a neutral comparison w/ the not knowing feeling of live. Using the regular risk/reward methods is key to being able to test these feelings.

The result was a surprise, but Iím still optimistic that the intended conditioning is possible. Maybe the big secret solution to beating a counter-trend bias is the revelation that neutrality is key. That at least sounds like an improvement. First time out experience has me wanting to go again.

----------------- end of journal entry

Then today, traded like I always do. I sold the 1st PB for a winner and I was one and done on the day. Couldn't be bothered to take a buy for the rest of the day. I'm less pessimistic about it anyway.

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  #12 (permalink)
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Leon of Pizza View Post
Greetings all, I could use some help with my mental problem. I find it difficult to participate in one-sided markets.

I've had this problem for years and my record shows that during these periods, my trade count is lower and my scratch count is higher.

Hate to be blunt. Do you have a fear of the bigger stops? The big boys don't let you ride those trends without some effort. I always tell myself "If you won't to ride the trend to the top, get a bigger stop". They will tell you when their done, so don't take yourself out by having unreal stops.

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  #13 (permalink)
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Felt bad for being blunt
Here is a little proof for bigger stops. My first trade today, I got stopped out leaving 17.5
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  #14 (permalink)
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Here is today's examples:
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  #15 (permalink)
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WoodyFox View Post
Felt bad for being blunt

No worries. Setting stops and targets is easy for me. Participation is the problem. I either want to go counter-trend or just sit.

8/16/19 was a bull trend day for RTY. I lost $21 with 1 W, 1 L, 4 SL. 2 longs for 1W & 1/2 W, and 4 shorts for 2 BE, 1L, & 1/2 L.

I have a strategy for trends but I didn't use it. Instead, I used a half-baked experimental strategy that I've never fully developed. I analyzed the day and compared the two strategies. Both would have worked consistently until the afternoon. The TICK/Q threshold cross is the half-baked one. The Buy the Bar's Bottom (BBB) is the developed one. So, I'm not happy that even when I managed to get on the right side, my strategy selection process failed.

Attached Thumbnails
I Can't Make a Friend of the Trend-rty-190816-tickq-zero-line-buys-bull-5m.png   I Can't Make a Friend of the Trend-tickq-190816-zero-line-buys-bull.png  
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  #16 (permalink)
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With the higher Volatility lately.. I have suspended my smaller stop strategies and shifted into some swing trades. This is my trade from Yesterday. Good example of how deep the pullbacks can be. The trade has a minimum 2 to 1 take and is trailed by nearly 59 Points. Holding through the weekend can sometimes be a little nerve wracking, but already up 59 points, I should be able to handle a pretty large gap down Sunday night. At least to my initial stop and be out with a normal loss for the strategy. I do not trade RTY, but large stops are must for me with NQ. Even when day trading a 12.5 point stop would be small for me. Anyways good luck with your trading, and I hope you find what works for you!
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  #17 (permalink)
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WoodyFox View Post
...suspended my smaller stop strategies...

I hesitate to ask this for fear I'm opening up a semantic can of worms, but I like to parse through others' perspectives. Are you suspending the entire thing? e.g. the pattern, execution mechanics, etc.
I stay with the same strategies and change the risk/reward to accommodate volatility. I see it as a change of tactics.

I presume you know the following, but I'll post it for others: NQ and RTY offer the better opportunity when looking at method expectancy/(relative)margin req. Another indication of this opportunity is their top line behavior. These two tend to rotate around the Dow and S&P, sometimes as leaders and laggards in the same day. In trends, the day over day compounding effect is active. At the other end of the risk/reward spectrum, I see opportunity in index spreads, such as YM-RTY. If RTY has been top-line leader for a multi day trend and then moves to laggard, I see it as an indication that there could be several days of unwinding the "risk-on" trade. That trade is 2x the margin req, but its low risk, making it a good strategy for reserve capital. It can be done with less capital using options and micros. AKA pairs trade.

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  #18 (permalink)
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WoodyFox View Post
Felt bad for being blunt
Here is a little proof for bigger stops. My first trade today, I got stopped out leaving 17.5
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care to explain the +.5 deviation lvl your talking about/ how your using it ?


-P

"Truth is not what you want it to be; it is what it is, and you must bend to its power or live a lie"-Miyamoto Musashi
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  #19 (permalink)
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Leon of Pizza View Post
I hesitate to ask this for fear I'm opening up a semantic can of worms, but I like to parse through others' perspectives. Are you suspending the entire thing? e.g. the pattern, execution mechanics, etc.
I stay with the same strategies and change the risk/reward to accommodate volatility. I see it as a change of tactics.

No maybe a bad word, more like on hold. With the VXN moving above 19, I started taking advantage of the bigger moves within my swing strategy. I am good adjusting my intraday strategies for volatility, it was just my first opportunity to try out my swing strategy. Showed my screen shot to stress how much I feel big stops are important with NQ. Small stops (12.5 Points or less) for me, are like fighting the tide.

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  #20 (permalink)
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MiniP View Post
care to explain the +.5 deviation lvl your talking about/ how your using it ?


-P

The +.5 Deviation is just that. One half of the the expected/implied daily deviation move. I use those levels for take profits. The market tends to go sideways on them and/or reverse intraday direction. The most powerful being the +- 1 deviations. In lower IV days and while using intraday strategies, I will not trade out side a one deviation move. At this point in my trading, I also would not trade without them.

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