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This is just my take on what you've written. The fear of losing could be either stemming from having too much at stake in the trade or not being used to losing or both. I'd suggest risking less per trade if the losses are too big. For getting used to losses, I think just going through hundreds of trades win or lose helps. Also consider losses are the "costs of doing business" where most every business has various expenses that can't be avoided. I'd also agree it's good to watch the trades in action because it helps with developing "screen time" and strategizing when to take profits. My 2c.
Trading: The one I'm creating in the present....Index Futures mini/micro, ZF
Posts: 2,311 since Nov 2011
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Not sure if I highlighted all the above "I can't" statements but bro you have to stop repeating these words. NOW! You can my brother you can!!! PERIOD THE END!!!!
You have to train yourself. It's as simple as that ...but unfortunately it is a very hard thing to do.....developing a Probabilistic Mind Set.
Take this example: you are placed with Seal Team Six (elite US Naval Special Warfare Development Group) without any training AT ALL on super short notice and you find yourself under heavy enemy fire thousands of miles/km from home....and you have zero clue what to do....because you have zero training for this type of situation. You do not need a restroom ...you need a shower and change of clothes.... GET IT....?????
Back to your situation.... you need to obtain a Probabilistic Mind.... which is an extremely difficult thing to have. Each trade on its own means nothing ...it is just 50/50. Sample size is the only time and edge can be seen..... bigger is better.
The example above is you in trading.....because you are not trained.... your mind is not trained to think in probabilities.
The best thing to do is get a competent coach. But most will not do that/go that far...as you said above "hobby"..... But never fear brother ...books.... Audio books ...Kindle...paper....Kindle books with the Amazon app are a substitute for Audio book as the Amazon app will read to you when asked.....lol....
Read Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb.... Mark Douglas......Van Tharp.....Brett Steenbarger......etc etc...
Watch some webinars here there are soooo many.
Let's keep this dialogue going here..... You have taken the first step putting yourself out there ....asking for help ... Great Job!
Just understand it is an organic process to mentally equip yourself with what you need... so think...planting a seed... you have to water it and make sure it gets enough sun ....nurture it.... and keep it safe from weeds animals bugs etc......
Everything in bold underline is a metaphor for your study/self training.
You said FOREX why not trade micro lots? Until such time as you have the needed mental apparatus............
Tell me your thoughts please.........................................
Ron
...My calamity is My providence, outwardly it is fire and vengeance, but inwardly it is light and mercy...
The steed of this Valley is pain; and if there be no pain this journey will never end.
Buy Low And Sell High (read left to right or right to left....lol)
Hi, I relate to your points of view. I can't watch because of fear of involvement. I've watched for years and years, I still watch but I can't watch when I'm in the trade. Once engaged I have an overwhelming urge to interfere. I feel like I have learned what I need to which is defining an opportunity. Once i'm in, if I'm not stopped out within say 1 hour I subconsciously know where price is heading, I know it plays mind games against my position, it retests my entry, it makes false crosses below my moving averages etc. I know it is invoking fear within me to tell me i'm wrong and get out of the trade. This is why I don't look, I don't want to be seduced or scared off by it's mind games. I'm like the kid in a horror movie who closes his eyes when the ghosts try and hurt him even though the ghost have not manifested as yet.
I guess i'm emotionally ill equipped to handle the markets, but at the same time I believe I have a talent for picking winners which I don't want to throw away, I just can't seem to capitalise on them. it's a double edged sword. I can't trade a system because a system can't feel the market like I do. It sees price data as it happens, it doesn't see what I see left of chart, it doesn't see the candles flicker with urgency after a slumber as the banks begin to build positions. It doesn't see climatic blow offs either not to my knowledge. The system also won't know that price is approaching a historical high or low from 1,2,3 months back either.
Your last point is what I'm trying to do just stick with fixed exits but as simple as that sounds it is not for me. Thank you for your feed back..
Thanks for your detailed post. Fooled by randomness sounds like a title I relate to, I'll put that book on my research list. I understand what your saying, train my mind. Believe me I have at least 20-30 journals with notes and plans and strategies for what to do...I've been on a constant journey of self study, training. I've been pretty much spending all my time in the markets and myself for a number of years. One would think that one would grow a set of balls so to speak, but maybe not.
Micro lots, I hate them, been on them for years doesn't help. You learn to become the way you are with an insignificant amount of money on the line. And then your results are in pennies and nobody cares. Not to mention you are tempted to take silly little trades because they are meaningless in monetary terms.
I know a trading partner would be very beneficial to me and I'm on the look out. When my alter ego is not feeding doubt in my mind I'm quite rationale and perceptive of what's really happening any given moment. Thanks for taking the time to post to me.
I like to watch every loss. I want my full money's worth. It leads to higher market cognition. For example, I learned tonight or hypothesized that the first touch lower is a stop run (takes out the longs) and the second touch establishes the shorts. So, tonight they actually took out the shorts. It required for the bounce for the shorts to get short and not just to take out the longs.
What I would suggest you do is you just make a commitment not to modify your trades but to watch them for the next 10 trades. I don't see why it should be that difficult. You do not need to equate watching the market with changing your stop/targets. You can do either/or or neither. If you truly have defined stop and target then set it. It doesn't matter in that regards whether you are watching the market or not as to whether you will take action. If after 10 trades, you see that your fixed exits are optimal then you will have confidence in that or if you feel you can improve then try for another 10 trades and allow yourself limited ability to modify things. Evaluate the results. Go with whatever works best.
I think there is value in systems trading too. You don't have to go fully automated but you might build a graybox or simplified set of rules for helping you with the management. If you only embody "one market cognition" there is a risk that shifts in the market will make it hard to adapt. But, it is certainly possible to code multiple "market cognitions" into discrete systems.
This sounds like somebody who suffers from agoraphobia trying to drive a car in rush hour traffic. They may very well be able to drive on a sim in the comfort of their own home and have the mechanics of driving down pat, but fall short when going real world.
Unless they deal with their agoraphobia first, chances are they won’t overcome this obstacle.
Aversion therapy may be a route that this person decides to take in dealing with their issue.
Yeah I don't mind watching my football or horse bet go up or down, it is entertainment like you describe, I want my moneys worth there. My behaviour is really ridiculous I know.
Speaking off stop runs I fell victim to one shortly after the ASX200 open today Monday morning. Gap down, retrace, enter short, stopped out, reverse back down. I didn't mind accepting defeat and losing my money even though price didn't trade through my stop. Can't complain when you trade a synthetic instrument however.
I do feel mentally strong today and losing my 1st trade of the week didn't affect me, hopefully I can build on that. I'm not ready for automation not till I prove I'm making money would I consider that. Imagine your robot does something silly how you'd feel being in a trade you weren't aware of ? At least I'm fully responsible this way even if I do mess it up.
This sounds like somebody who suffers from agoraphobia trying to drive a car in rush hour traffic. They may very well be able to drive on a sim in the comfort of their own home and have the mechanics of driving down pat, but fall short when going real world.
Unless they deal with their agoraphobia first, chances are they won’t overcome this obstacle.
Aversion therapy may be a route that this person decides to take in dealing with their issue.
Good example, I actually have that problem with panic attacks on the road but not when playing Forza. Aversion therapy sounds interesting I would need somebody to make me sit there and watch the trade from start to finish it would be difficult to carry out in my circumstances.... Thanks for your input.
Two and a half years ago I was completely new to trading. Through a family friend I became acquainted with the futures market. Seeing how much the markets move and the opportunity that it represented I felt that it would be worth a shot to try trading. …
Two and a half years ago I was completely new to trading. Through a family friend I became acquainted with the futures market. Seeing how much the markets move and the opportunity that it represented I felt that it would be worth a shot to try trading. …
In order to experience the gains, you have to be willing to take the losses.
Also, it is worth understanding that it is both mathematically and practically extremely difficult to increase your max net profit over your entry positions or strategies "max risk" (large stop loss) by reading the market after an entry and taking any action, aka tape reading or active risk management. What a skilled tape reader can sometimes do is produce a far superior risk adjusted return or reduce the average risk per trade significantly. Basically, your entry signal only has so much juice-- you can't extract more from it then exists.
If you really want to trade, you need to just decide that it is worth it and recognize that the risk of losing exists. There must be some part of you that recognizes that often you can recognize losing trades before they hit your stop loss. However, you have observed that your max net profit is going to be higher if you take the full risk.
So, you are somewhat divided because you are not fully conscious of the conflicting goal states. I would want to know how much you are risking. This sort of problem is common in futures because the contracts are not very granular. This leads too competing optimums: a global and a local optimal. The global optimal might suggest using a larger stop loss and taking more risk per trade. However, once the account size is figured and risk per trade then a "local optimal" might suggest risking less per trade and potentially making a bit less in net profit for a better risk adjusted return and/or to stay within reasonable risk parameters given uncertain outcome.
My advice is the same though: if you want to trade-- commit yourself to taking some number of trades, say 10 to 30, using your pre-planned entry/exit. Allow yourself to monitor the trades. Allow yourself to exit early on a simulator. Finally compare the difference in results. If you did well with your market read, you should probably see less risk per trade, lower drawdown, and a slightly lower return. All that should translate into a higher risk adjusted return. For your pre-planned/established exit, you should see a higher net profit and larger wins and losses. Of course, it is based on hypothetical assumptions. Also, I'd suggest starting an exercise program of some sort -- lifting weights or something. Trading is stressful.
