All in all out vs. scaling in and out - Psychology and Money Management | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


All in all out vs. scaling in and out
Updated: Views / Replies:26,154 / 130
Created: by caprica Attachments:9

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

View Poll Results: All in all out or scale in and out?
All in, all out 79 33.05%
All in, scale out 103 43.10%
Scale in, scale out 57 23.85%
Voters: 239. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 9  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

All in all out vs. scaling in and out

  #121 (permalink)
Elite Member
Sydney, Australia
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart, IRESS
Broker/Data: IB, IQFeed
Favorite Futures: ES, SPI, ASX stocks, options
 
Posts: 399 since Jun 2015
Thanks: 169 given, 446 received


DionysusToast View Post
This is not true at all. Prop traders get taught how to trade, not how to backtest. I know the management at a number of prop firms as well as many prop traders and they do not back test, they see trading as a skill that you develop over time, not as a 'system' you fine tune.

What they do is teach, review, journal, practice and (if you are lucky) mentor.

Floor traders never got to do any backtesting either. They were certainly professional.

Your viewpoint is a systematic one - based on a belief set that the market is systematic. Not all share your view, nor can you really prove that it is an absolute as you seem to think.

I scale out and you say that I am definitely giving money back when I do that. That's not an assessment you are in a position to make.

But let me add some more to what I do....

- In a very slow market I will be all in/all out. Range trading
- With a more normal market, which on my market means runs that can last 30 mins to an hour and then reverse, I scale out because the target is unknown and depends purely on how other traders behave in terms of jumping on the move (as well as those that get stuck fading it).
- In a very fast market, I will scale in. Mostly because I know I can go offside quickly and that the market can put in a larger run, so I will de-risk the trade by starting small

Now - I could turn all this into statistics but that presumes that I can draw cause from the effect. I am a firm believer in logging but I log the state of the mark




You simply cannot automate certain styles of trading. There is too much nuance involved. It's not about rules, it's about the fact that automation will DUMB DOWN your trading style. You have to lose a lot of the nuance.

The back test / forward test already exists in the successful track records of the prop and floor traders, hence there is no need to back test an existing method that works. If you told a new retail person with no mentoring and abilities to just go ahead and start trading on a method they just made up, would that be wise?

Trading an unproven method with no testing is stupid - if you argue that isn't the case then I got nothing else to say.

I never said you are definitely giving money back when scaling, you are defending a remark I never made. I said IF anybody's past performance shows scaling doesn't give you any love you should go all out. I don't even know what your stats are nor do I care.


Quoting 
@DionysusToast uses all in/scale out so what I said applies. However, I am not saying that his scaling out doesn't work or saying scaling out doesn't work in general,

I also never said you can automate all styles, and that I in fact think discretionary on a short time frame like yours is necessary


Quoting 
I don't think mathematical is the only way, I believe in discretionary, infact, I think for short time frames discretionary is the only way to go except for arb as you mentioned, as order flow is hard to automate.

Do you and Itchy both read with blinders on?

To each their own - if you don't like to use statistics to evaluate past performance and see if you can fix any patterns then that is your deal. There most certainly are patterns, especially in personal behavior which you can find and fix but if it's not your cup of tea then lets agree to disagree.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to PeakGrowth for this post:
 
  #122 (permalink)
Elite Member
Helsinki, Finland
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: SC/CQG, API/Rithmic, TWS
Broker/Data: AMP, Interactivebrokers
Favorite Futures: FDAX
 
Scalpguy's Avatar
 
Posts: 154 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 95 received


PeakGrowth View Post
Anyhow, back on topic as I am done debating this topic in the inappropriate thread.

The simple truth is if your scale in/out points are not making you money (and you can find out by looking at your history), then you should not do it - you will instantly increase your expectancy by doing so. This is situational, everyone is different and should find out for themselves, hence, the answer to this thread is it depends.

I agree 100%.

I do not see/know/have heard any other way how to find the best scale in/out method for your own system than trading it again in history and simulating the different methods. Even if the strategy is based into very same ideas than others. Different people different results.

It takes courage to be a Pig
Go With The Flow !
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Scalpguy for this post:
 
  #123 (permalink)
Elite Member
Johor, Malaysia
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Favorite Futures: CL, GC
 
Posts: 167 since Oct 2013
Thanks: 1,010 given, 151 received


@DionysusToast
But let me add some more to what I do....

- In a very slow market I will be all in/all out. Range trading
- With a more normal market, which on my market means runs that can last 30 mins to an hour and then reverse, I scale out because the target is unknown and depends purely on how other traders behave in terms of jumping on the move (as well as those that get stuck fading it).
- In a very fast market, I will scale in. Mostly because I know I can go offside quickly and that the market can put in a larger run, so I will de-risk the trade by starting small



Thank you for sharing.

Sleep well, Eat Healthy, Breathe...

Last edited by mykee; December 26th, 2015 at 03:09 AM. Reason: adding
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to mykee for this post:
 
  #124 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bangkok
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MultiCharts.NET, S5, Ninj
Broker/Data: AMP, S5, IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
DionysusToast's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,668 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 776 given, 8,721 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


PeakGrowth View Post
The back test / forward test already exists in the successful track records of the prop and floor traders, hence there is no need to back test an existing method that works. If you told a new retail person with no mentoring and abilities to just go ahead and start trading on a method they just made up, would that be wise?

That's not how prop shops work. There's a very small percentage of prop shops that want bums on seats to execute a specific strategy. I know a prop trader that was considering such a position in a Canadian shop as it was close to where he was located. The biggest problem he had with the job was that they'd dictate very strictly how he could trade. It was not an attractive proposition for him. On the one hand he wanted back in prop, on the other hand he wanted to execute his own style.

They effectively wanted drone-traders which is the opposite of what most prop shops are doing. That is taking people with promise, showing them how the market works and helping them to develop as traders. If you don't believe this, call a prop shop, ask them how many traders they have and how many are executing exactly the same method. They won't - they'll all be growing in different directions because prop shops want to develop independent traders that evolve with the markets, not finger pushing drones. It's a bit like teaching a man to fish as opposed to giving him a fish.

I met 5 traders for a coffee in Singapore one day - all at the same prop shop. All doing very different things. Some on spreads, some on outrights and one girl trading the queue position in what can only be described as marginally less exciting than watching paint that had already dried.

Once in a trade, it's a matter of monitoring until you are convinced the market is following through. If it doesn't follow through, if you get in a trade and then work your way out because you feel momentum is simply not there - then you will be out, maybe at a profit. You may be a scale-out trader but decide after 4 or 5 ticks that the market is stuck and then unwind the position. So you got 'all out'. This does no mean there are no rules but it does mean that trying to turn the numbers into trade management statistics is problematic because the stats are not situation specific. Stats for April 2015 and stats for December 2015 would not be comparable for day traders because of the different conditions.



PeakGrowth View Post
Trading an unproven method with no testing is stupid - if you argue that isn't the case then I got nothing else to say.

Practice is what makes you better at trading. Practice, journaling and reviewing your trades are not backtesting but they are proven ways of improving as a discretionary trader to the point you can get to live. It's not stupid it's just skill development, not mechanical method implementation.


PeakGrowth View Post
I never said you are definitely giving money back when scaling, you are defending a remark I never made. I said IF anybody's past performance shows scaling doesn't give you any love you should go all out. I don't even know what your stats are nor do I care.

This is where we agree then. There is no right or wrong. It cannot be mathematically proven that scaling is better or worse in all cases. It is just one of many aspects of trading that we have to think about every day.


PeakGrowth View Post
I also never said you can automate all styles, and that I in fact think discretionary on a short time frame like yours is necessary


Do you and Itchy both read with blinders on?

Yes, of course.


PeakGrowth View Post
To each their own - if you don't like to use statistics to evaluate past performance and see if you can fix any patterns then that is your deal. There most certainly are patterns, especially in personal behavior which you can find and fix but if it's not your cup of tea then lets agree to disagree.

I didn't say you cannot have statistics and I am a firm believer in having a trade journal. Where I disagree really comes from cause and effect. I have bad days where the day is bad because I thought the day would play out one way and I stuck to my guns on that despite the market clearly doing something else. My journal records such things "being a dick" is a common sentence in my journal. When I look at my journal, it reads more like a diary than a spreadsheet. I am interested in how well I followed my plan, what techniques I applied, how well they worked, how the day played out. So I build a picture of the type of activity, what techniques I applied, how well I applied them and how they worked.

Of course I can get stats, what worked well in what conditions and my rating for how well I followed my plan. What I don't do is data mine the results because that could find 'causes' that don't exist - patterns that appear that are nothing more than randomness or just a reflection of that period of time (such as a period of exceptional volatility).

Data mining just the technique applied and the results is not valid in my opinion because that is only a small part of the equation in any period. Market conditions, news risk, market maker participation are just as important and have just as much effect as specific trade strategies applied during that period. So you end up crunching partial data. So you can either try to quantify 5000 data points or embrace the "skills" aspect of trading.

I see it as a way to ensure I build on my experience because in the heat of the moment, you can get so caught up that you don't really spend time to reflect on what you did.

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Reply With Quote
The following 7 users say Thank You to DionysusToast for this post:
 
  #125 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bangkok
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MultiCharts.NET, S5, Ninj
Broker/Data: AMP, S5, IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
DionysusToast's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,668 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 776 given, 8,721 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


PeakGrowth View Post
That is quite literally the worst analogy ever.

It's not hard to know, the issue is that you don't know because you don't understand it.

If you are all in and scale out, say 2 in and 1 out at POC and 1 out at VAH, you are effectively trading two separate methods at the same time, 1 with an exit at POC and 1 at VAH. If you have the data, you can easily see which exit type earned what money. If you are consistently losing money scaling out at POC, then once you only all out at VAH, you will increase your returns for the same amount of initial risk. If you can only earn consistent money by using both POC and VAH, then scaling out is the right method. This is called self improvement.

OK - so this is one of the trades I regularly take.

Market opens up, we end up rotating in a 6 point range. We have a decent size range built and "value" is a way of defining the range. In other words, you look for a long entry around the VAL and a short around the VAH.

So you go long somewhere around the VAL, you target the VAH but you have a hurdle in the way - the POC. So you take some off ahead of that first hurdle, target the VAH if it gets through the POC and work your way an exit if it fails to get through POC.

So what you did was got into a long - saw 'hurdles' ahead. You could "all out" at the first hurdle but instead you pay attention at each hurdle and react accordingly. That surely must be a better approach than "this price or bust".

Certainly, it didn't seem like the worst analogy ever.

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Reply With Quote
 
  #126 (permalink)
Elite Member
Philadelphia
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: corded black telephone
Favorite Futures: ticker tape
 
Itchymoku's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,892 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 1,681 given, 3,621 received

@PeakGrowth


Please show me at least one system that works long term that uses all in / all out that is based on back testing.
Provide a brief description of what it does. You can obfuscate it to some degree if you wish to keep some of the variables secret. Explain it vaguely as pseudo code if it's too lengthy. I just want one example of a system that uses this type of trading.


I don't need exacts or a broker statements. I don't want this debate to get lost in being able to prove, it isn't about proving, it's about simply seeing a system that works.

Show me a journal, book, video of someone who uses this type of trading for over a year and is profitable. ANYTHING.

thank you.


Last edited by Itchymoku; December 27th, 2015 at 01:33 AM.
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Itchymoku for this post:
 
  #127 (permalink)
Elite Member
Quebec
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader wt Rancho Dinero's profiling tools
Broker/Data: Stage 5 trading/AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: ES, NQ, YM
 
trendisyourfriend's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,697 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 3,041 given, 4,496 received


Itchymoku View Post
@PeakGrowth


Please show me at least one system that works long term that uses all in / all out that is based on back testing.
Provide a brief description of what it does. You can obfuscate it to some degree if you wish to keep some of the variables secret. You can just explain it vaguely as pseudo code too if it's lengthy. I just want one example of a system that uses this type of a trading.


That it is all. If you can't do this then please do us all a favor and leave your lengthy rebuttals aside. And this goes to anyone who supports the topic.

I don't need exacts or a broker statements. I'm not asking anyone to prove the system. I just want to be shown a system that works with this type of trading. That is all.

thank you.


Reply With Quote
 
  #128 (permalink)
Elite Member
Philadelphia
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: corded black telephone
Favorite Futures: ticker tape
 
Itchymoku's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,892 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 1,681 given, 3,621 received


trendisyourfriend View Post

- need a description of how it works
- needs to work long term

Reply With Quote
 
  #129 (permalink)
Elite Member
Sydney, Australia
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart, IRESS
Broker/Data: IB, IQFeed
Favorite Futures: ES, SPI, ASX stocks, options
 
Posts: 399 since Jun 2015
Thanks: 169 given, 446 received


Itchymoku View Post
@PeakGrowth


Please show me at least one system that works long term that uses all in / all out that is based on back testing.
Provide a brief description of what it does. You can obfuscate it to some degree if you wish to keep some of the variables secret. Explain it vaguely as pseudo code if it's too lengthy. I just want one example of a system that uses this type of trading.


That it is all. If you can't do this then please do us all a favor and leave your lengthy rebuttals aside. And this goes to anyone who supports the topic of all in / all out intra-day trading.

I don't need exacts or a broker statements. I don't want this debate to get lost in being able to prove, it isn't about proving, it's about simply seeing a system that works.

Show me a journal, book, video of someone who uses this type of trading for over a year and is profitable. ANYTHING.

thank you.

Read any of the market wizards books, there are a ton of mechanical traders there.

Ernest Chan is one
Managed Accounts | QTS Capital Management, LLC.

I don't need to dig up any more because my point is proven.

Unlike you, coming out of this debate I have even more respect for @DionysusToast than I did before because he can debate his side with facts and experience. You on the other hand, can't debate out of a wet paper bag.

YOU of all people want evidence based replies? This is coming from the guy who believes in fibonacci and probably how the alignment of Saturn with our moon will affect our markets, you aren't even in the same league.

Since you can't read, I'll help you one more time - I never said anything apart from all in/out works - it most certainly can work. If you have an edge, it doesn't matter if you do AIAO, AISO, SIAO, SISO, you will make money, how much of it you make depends on how you apply those 4 methods in the right situations and part of figuring that out is looking at how you did in the past, whether it be your live results or a back test.

In terms of who would be doing a favor and leaving anything aside, I'd say with gems like this:
https://futures.io/off-topic/38021-how-do-i-thank-my-own-posts.html

You're the one making a fool of yourself. Here's some evidence for you - nobody thanked your posts because they weren't any good.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to PeakGrowth for this post:
 
  #130 (permalink)
Elite Member
Philadelphia
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: corded black telephone
Favorite Futures: ticker tape
 
Itchymoku's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,892 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 1,681 given, 3,621 received



PeakGrowth View Post
Read any of the market wizards books, there are a ton of mechanical traders there.

Ernest Chan is one
Managed Accounts | QTS Capital Management, LLC.

I don't need to dig up any more because my point is proven.

Unlike you, coming out of this debate I have even more respect for @DionysusToast than I did before because he can debate his side with facts and experience. You on the other hand, can't debate out of a wet paper bag.

YOU of all people want evidence based replies? This is coming from the guy who believes in fibonacci and probably how the alignment of Saturn with our moon will affect our markets, you aren't even in the same league.

Since you can't read, I'll help you one more time - I never said anything apart from all in/out works - it most certainly can work. If you have an edge, it doesn't matter if you do AIAO, AISO, SIAO, SISO, you will make money, how much of it you make depends on how you apply those 4 methods in the right situations and part of figuring that out is looking at how you did in the past, whether it be your live results or a back test.

In terms of who would be doing a favor and leaving anything aside, I'd say with gems like this:
https://futures.io/off-topic/38021-how-do-i-thank-my-own-posts.html

You're the one making a fool of yourself. Here's some evidence for you - nobody thanked your posts because they weren't any good.

I apologize about the lengthy rebuttals statement and about what people have to prove on this forum. I didn't want this debate to get out of sorts and am sorry it turned out that way. I understand there are people who are profitable with all in all out but it's probably on the range of 1.618% or less, those that were lucky. The thanking my own posts thread was just a joke and not of relevance here.

And by the way PeakGrowth Happy holidays, I still love ya my brotha



Last edited by Itchymoku; December 27th, 2015 at 02:03 AM.
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Itchymoku for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > All in all out vs. scaling in and out

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Linda Bradford Raschke: Reading The Tape

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

January

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Scaling-in/Adding near your average MAE; why not? Gary Psychology and Money Management 40 August 29th, 2017 10:31 PM
NinjaTrader Chart Scaling msedlak40 NinjaTrader 7 November 24th, 2012 09:09 PM
Scaling in and scaling out...when the total is NOT the sum of its parts RM99 Psychology and Money Management 8 April 11th, 2012 10:21 AM
NT7 Scaling on charts grego NinjaTrader 3 November 28th, 2010 06:40 AM
Best Practices for Scaling In/Out with Ninja DOM HJay Traders Hideout 1 August 8th, 2009 04:19 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:41 AM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-11 in 0.23 seconds with 21 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.82.81.154