What time period strategy works best for futures trading? W/D or H/15M
What is the best time period strategy for trading futures (weekly/daily, hourly/15M, other)?
I've been trading futures off/on for many years with limited success. When I first started out in mid-80's after college, I used a chart service and focused on weekly/daily charts and made decisions based on these periods. I had some success but failed and stepped away quite a few years. I've started back in past several years and tried to pickup using similar strategy but with available charts/data today, I'm not sure if weekly/daily makes sense.
What I've found is that when looking at weekly/daily, I try to determine long term moves on the markets and find myself trapped in trying to tell the market what to do vs. listening to the market.
In past 4 months, I've been focused on trying to apply the indicators I use (RSI, ADX/DMI, and EMA on price) to an hourly and 15M chart. My thought process is that I'll ignore what the market is doing long term (strategic thinking) but just react to what the indicators are telling me on the 15M chart (tactical thinking). I find myself not caring what long term market direction is doing and so not trying to tell market what to do.
Does this make sense? Does anyone have any thoughts or feedback on this topic?
This is going to sound rash, but know that I mean the best in what I say.
What you are doing is wrong. Disregarding long-term and only looking at indicators is the best recipe for failure I have seen in a while.
Now, I am not saying you can't be profitable looking at RSI, ADX/DMI, and EMA's, but it IS highly unlikely. You will spend 20 more years trying to get profitable.
You want to be profitable? Are you willing to do what it takes?
Buy the elite membership. Study the threads, watch the webinars, and get as much screen time as possible.
You will notice that time frame only matters to the indicators that you use. Watch and read what successful traders do in the market, not failing ones. If you do not know how to trade, the time frame won't matter!
What are successful traders using? Follow their lead. You will save yourself A LOT of time! Trust me!
If you want some thread suggestions, I would be happy to do so!
I hope you understand I am trying to help. I was in the same spot as you once!
Last edited by rocksolid68; August 14th, 2016 at 01:02 PM.
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I would have to argue with the scalping statement. Ask any successful trader here on the forum: scalping is a surefire way to blow your account. Futures trading will kill you if you want to scalp them. Scalping is high stress and high cost with little reward.
@Inletcap @tturner86 @Big Mike @tigertrader etc all are successful traders and none of them scalp and all advise not to. I am profitable as well. What helped me? Learning to not scalp.
I am trying to help. I will ask you two questions then I'll be done:
What do most retail traders do? -Scalp
Do most traders fail? -Yes
(If some successful traders could chime in, that would be great. That way they see I am not just a crazy guy )
Last edited by rocksolid68; August 14th, 2016 at 01:05 PM.
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@rocksolid68 thanks for the candid feedback and input. I'll look into the elite membership as my goal in trading is to make money.
@Infinite i'm not really looking at scalping but just focusing on a very short term period (maybe day trades are same as scalping?)
I guess what i was thinking of trying was to trade like I did on the weekly/daily trend type trades but use the 1H to determine the trend direction and use the 15M to time the entry and trade in the direction of the 1H trend. However, I'm not positive if I'd hold a position across days or make each decision to get in on a daily basis. I would probably exit at end of day regardless and determine a strategy to re-enter next day based on first hour of trading and apply same strategy.
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I'll use USOil as an example and have included a 1H and 15M chart (I don't trade USOil but crude future options)
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looking at the shaded rectangles, I'd use something like 9/45/90P EMA on price to determine trend or change in trend. Once i feel that trend has changed, I'd use the 15M chart (or maybe 5M but may be too granular) and indicators to find a place to enter in the direction of the 1H trend along with where to place stops and such. As the example, I would say that the trend in the shaded rectangle on the 60M chart changed to up once price and 9P SMA moved over 45/90P EMA and then look to the 15M chart to determine when to best get in based on indicators. The 15M chart may not be granular enough but maybe the 5M. This would probable vary based on markets that are traded 23Hrs a day in high volume like crude oil vs. something like soybean oil that's traded fewer hours and less volume.
It would seem I could do the same using weekly and daily charts but what I've found is that confirmation of trade requires a larger draw and that I get too hung up on trying to predict what market will do vs. reacting to what market is doing (I'm not sure of what others' experience here has been but I've spent probably too much time studying Elliott and Gann and have not succeeded at either but have been more distracted by such things). So, now I'm trying reset my thinking and looking at just short term trades based on market/price and a small set of indicators.
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There is no timeframe or majic combination of indicators that will help a trader. If there were, we'd all be done tomorrow and the markets would cease to exist. Indicators are useful for scanning multiple securities to narrow the list down, then one goes into the charts to see what's happening and how it relates to the present environment. You won't believe me now, but one day you will appreciate that statement.
There are no shortcuts but it does not necessarily have to take a long time to learn enough to begin trading against the brightest minds in the world. Best $100 you will spend on your trading journey is an elite membership- with that, guys will help you and you will see a whole new perspective that you do not even know exists. You will learn what context is and how to prepare and execute a thesis- you can see what some extremely successful traders do and you'll see what struggling traders do/can't do. ( I have no financial interest in this site- just a genuine suggestion as you are only getting 1/10 of what's available without it)
Best of luck on your journey- look forward to seeing you on the "other side"
Last edited by Inletcap; August 14th, 2016 at 07:15 PM.
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