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Trading Opposite Signals
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Trading Opposite Signals

  #1 (permalink)
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Trading Opposite Signals

It's well known that most retail traders don't make money in trading.

In this scenario, the method is based on an indicator and you take every setup. For example, you get a green arrow to go long and the market goes up for a few ticks and then goes in the other direction to your intended trade to stop you out. You risk 20 ticks to make 10 in this example. After many resets in TopStep, you notice that your winning days average +20 ticks and your losing days are -50 ticks (causing a reset in TopStep).

So if you have a signal for a long position, just go short instead. Also, reversing your stop and profit targets to risking 10 ticks to make 20 ticks.

Has anybody in this forum done a controlled study where the other side of the intended trade is taken?

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  #3 (permalink)
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Omer עומר / Israel י
 
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I tested that..
You will also loose...

The wining/loosing is not exclusively the signal.

Part of the loosing comes from :
- slippage
- commission

Only when you have a true edge, have a disciplined system, able to identify the right context when the system is at it's best, have proper money management, then you will be able to consistantly make profits

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  #4 (permalink)
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rleplae View Post
I tested that..
You will also loose...

The wining/loosing is not exclusively the signal.

Part of the loosing comes from :
- slippage
- commission

Only when you have a true edge, have a disciplined system, able to identify the right context when the system is at it's best, have proper money management, then you will be able to consistantly make profits

I understand slippage and commission. But how does that change the number of ticks that you make on a setup?

If the arrow is green and you usually buy it, risking 20 to make 10, and you keep losing, then why wouldn't selling the price give the opposite result? Also reversing the risk reward ratio.

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Beginners tend to be counter trend traders. But the counter trend has a low probability of success, about 40%. So, if you are counter-trend trading you actually can do worse than what you would get flipping a coin. So the solution is to only trade pullbacks with the trend.

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  #6 (permalink)
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Omer עומר / Israel י
 
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tradethetick View Post
I understand slippage and commission. But how does that change the number of ticks that you make on a setup?

If the arrow is green and you usually buy it, risking 20 to make 10, and you keep losing, then why wouldn't selling the price give the opposite result? Also reversing the risk reward ratio.

What I mean is, let people do the opposite and they will still loose money...
because the win/loose, is more than the signal

it is :
- slippage
- commission
- money management

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