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Subconscious Beliefs - Key to Trading?
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Subconscious Beliefs - Key to Trading?

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Normal Wizard
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Subconscious Beliefs - Key to Trading?

Ok so as the title implies I will be talking about subconscious beliefs and how they are absolutely key to success or failure. Pretty big claim so I will explain. There are similar posts by "George" titled "Trading psychology and how the mind works I-IV" under sticky threads, I would highly recommend going through these as well and there will be quite some overlapping information here when it comes to the subconscious and our beliefs (Wish I read this at the start of my journey).

My trading journey has been characterized by a lot of frustration and lack of results. I saw myself improve dramatically in terms of skill and knowledge: I can now see things I could not see before, I am significantly more adept at reading the market and yet my results had not changed. I came to realize that your individual trading performance is pretty much 100% dependent on your emotional state (assuming you have the necessary skills). You can be highly skilled but if you come to the markets feeling stressed or anxious it will cloud your mind, you can't think properly. You can come to the market feeling relaxed and focused but have your state of mind change later during the day due to a number of triggers. I shifted from the approach, from increasing the amount of knowledge I had and developing skill to managing emotional state. This was logical to me because as I mentioned, increases in skill and knowledge were doing bugger all because I was failing to execute properly - doing what I know I'm meant to and not doing what I'm not meant to. I made a list of all my trading setups and commit them to memory to address this problem, so I would know what to do and when but this failed as well (although I must say there is a high degree of subjectivity in my trading). I shifted to developing self-awareness and learning my triggers and identifying negative emotional states and eliminating them by using deep breathing and deliberate relaxing of muscles. This worked for a while but I could not sustain it. The reason this has all failed, is because I was not addressing root causes. The root cause of our results is our deeply held subconscious beliefs, which cause us to emotionally react to situations in certain ways. This is why some market tendencies will cause varying negative responses in some traders and simply not impact others, because we all hold different beliefs about ourselves and the world and it is through these beliefs that we experience the world. I'll finish here with the words of Mark Dogulas (Trading in the Zone) "Any desire or action we want to take that is not congruent with our beliefs will be met with sabotage, usually in the form of mistakes (conscious or unconscious) or lapses in focus during inconvenient times."

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Here is a boat analogy I created.

Lets say you want to build a boat. The most important thing a boat must do is float(!); this is the foundation to a functioning ship. it also needs a power source and steering. Lets say you have a ship but it has a large hole in the hull.

You might have everything correct; you have sails on, you have steering. No matter what you do, you are going to sink. You can struggle all you like, you can get a pair of paddles and row furiously to try to move forward to your destination faster, but the result is inevitable; though you might move forward for some time eventually your boat sinks and you bail. Lets ignore for the moment that it is completely obvious something needs to be done about the holes in the hull. You come to the conclusion that sails suck. They are rubbish. Adding paddles is no help at all. You decide, its time to get a motor. Internal combustion is the key, the “secret” to a working boat.You build a new boat with a motor and start from scratch. You start again, but your boat sinks again. You become increasingly frustrated. You decrease the weight of the boat, you add a more powerful motor, you make the boat more streamlined but the same result keeps happening over and over again. You sink.

This is the story of many traders. They go from one strategy to the next looking for the one that works, but they all have a big “hole” in their psychology; an ineffective belief system. Perhaps a few traders might then get involved in trading psychology. You learn about cognitive biases and the flaws of the human brain, you learn to develop mindfulness about your emotional state and learn emotional regulation techniques, like calming the body through deep breathing and developing mindfulness about how you feel. You understand that certain market tendencies cause you to go “on tilt”. Maybe it helps some, but you are still not treating root causes. With the boat analogy, this is the equivalent of now having a bucket which you can use to throw out excess water when it starts to flow in (neutralizing negative emotional states). But the water will continue to flow in and it will be an unceasing struggle the whole way through. As soon as you stop throwing out the water, perhaps you tire (again, willpower is finite), you sink. Again you fail to acquire a functioning boat because you have not built it up from a solid foundation. Unfortunately, a lot of trading psychology material does not address beliefs nor how to effectively change them, although they might give give you a good understanding of the brain. You might also create rules like “3 losses in a row, max” or “$X max loss per day” but continually break them or find your results still unsatisfactory. You lose confidence, you come to believe you are “undisciplined” or you “just don’t have what it takes”. And your trading might ever become worse as you lose belief in yourself.

This is because you are still operating under the idea that it is your “conscious thinking” that creates action. It can for a time but if it is in conflict with subconscious beliefs, you will eventually lose; willpower is limited. "Discipline" or fighting yourself (subconscious) is bound to fail and sap you of energy. Your subconscious mind is vastly more powerful to your conscious mind and is working 24/7 to create the ideas it holds about you and the world, positive or negative. You can have a a profitable system/strategy but fail to execute it properly. It is common experience to reflect upon a trading day and think “DAMN! WHY DID I DO THAT! THAT WAS SO STUPID!”. Many don’t know, Or worse, blame the market. A more observant trader might say, “the market was slow and rangebound today, which generated feelings of uneasiness and impatience and I overtraded”, and proceed to continually repeat this behavior even though he recognizes he was acting from his emotions and knows the trigger for his emotions. It doesn’t solve the problem because it does not address the root of the problem – deeply held beliefs. Successful traders are able to execute their trades according to their plan because they have working beliefs about themselves, money and the market.

A proper boat will operate in both smooth and stormy seas. A leaky boat will sink regardless. Once you have a solid foundation, then improvements in strategy will lead to better results, but not before. Once you have a waterproof hull, then you can add a motor, make it more streamlined etc and you will experience increased performance. Of course, it is entirely possible to have a waterproof hull but you wont get anywhere if you are using a teaspoon as a substitute for a paddle. In this case, you have a solid belief system but a strategy that does not have edge or you don’t have the experience/skill or pattern recognition to execute it. Everybody starts out this way. But when you find you are becoming overly emotional during trading, or find yourself doing things you know you shouldn’t be doing (or not doing things you know you should be doing) this indicates you need to work on your belief system.

Solutions

Ok, so now that we know the problem: what is the solution? Firstly, we must understand how the subconscious works. There is a difference between saying “I believe” and truly believing in something. When you believe in something it is a feeling of certainty. One can agree upon an idea, understand it, but until that idea is embedded into the subconscious it is not a belief. The subconscious mind responds only to emotions, suggestion and repetition. So trying to rationalize that something is true, i.e. give reasons why, will not alter beliefs that are fundamentally irrational. In addition, it does not distinguish between experiences real or imagined. The goal is to change one’s collection of beliefs, or paradigm, from negative or disempowering to positive and empowering. Growing up, many of us are subject to negative inputs from family, friends and media. You might have been told things like “you have to work hard to earn a living”, “money doesn’t grow on trees”. The behavior of your parents might also have indicated that money is scarce, embedding it into your belief system. They might have behaved tight and anxious about money, focused completely on saving money and were very conservative. Neglect and being made to feel that you are not enough, or that love was conditional upon your success or performance (in school, sport, etc) will usually result in a feeling that you aren’t worth much. All of this conditioning forms our beliefs about ourselves and the world, and once you believe something you will act as if it is true, regardless of whether or not it is true. One point that is greatly stressed in Pyscho-cybernetics (Maxwell Maltz) is that we cannot act in conflict for long with the deeply embedded images we hold of our-self and the world – inevitably we will “revert to the mean” – the mean being the collection of beliefs we hold. If you don’t feel you are worthy of living a life of luxury, it simply won’t happen, no matter how much know-how you have. If you deeply believe that resources are scarce, there's never enough, you will never have enough - and you may disagree with these statements on a conscious level but deeply believe them and not be aware of it because of early conditioning. Feelings of poverty and scarcity will proceed to create the actual situation of feeling and poverty in your life. Andrew Carnegie himself said that “any idea that is held in the mind, that is either feared or revered, will begin at once to clothe itself immediately in the most convenient and appropriate form available”. I know a person who continually thinks about could go wrong in any given situation, and believe me this person is not living a pleasant life in terms of health or wealth. The flip side to this is that through consciously alter your habitual ways of thinking, you flip your deeply held beliefs into positive ones, and they will inevitably express themselves and transform your life in the direction you want. In many cases, the change is automatic, and the person doesn’t consciously plan how their life will turn around, it simply does in a seemingly serendipitous way – its all in the subconscious mind.It works purely based of emotions, suggestion and repetition.

George gives some excellent recommendations in his last post as to how we can flip our belief systems, although I would disagree when he says affirmations, visualization etc doesn't work (this is what I talk about).

Visualization.

This means clearing your mind, closing your eyes and then imagining yourself as if you were already the person you want to be or that you already have the things you want to have. It is highly recommended that you write down on a piece of paper what you want, and who you want to be. Think, feel, and imagine in terms of the end result. If it is wealth you want, imagine in detail the person you would be, what you would be doing, how you would feel, rather than the actions you would be taking to get the result. (You probably didn't visualize doing bad trades growing up as a kid nor were you told you would be a poor trader... its more about key beliefs about the world and yourself that fractal out into all areas of life). These things should be what you truly want, things that you have a burning desire for. Give no heed to how impossible it might seem. The optimal goal you should be going for is one that you don’t know how to do. The worst goal is that which you know you can do, as there is no inspiration or desire. What you think you can do is only slightly better. If it is something you truly desire, you can achieve it. Visualizing is best done just after waking up and right before you go to sleep, when your brain is in a beta or theta state and the subconscious is more open to suggestion, but you can also achieve these states consciously through calming the mind through meditation. Repeated visualization of the desired outcome is absolutely critical. Do this every morning and every evening, and you should begin to at least feel different after 21 days, and that is key. Arnold Schwarzenegger is an excellent example demonstrating the power of correct visualization. He would hang up posters of these bodybuilders in his room, always imagining himself to be like them, he would imagine himself winning the Mr. Olympia competition, and he always had a burning desire to win. He also worked out every day, extremely hard – but I believe it was his razor sharp focus about what he wanted deeply, and the strong conviction that he would have it, that allowed him to have it. It is the main message in Think and Grow Rich – the golden thread that all the wealthiest men of the 20th century shared, was that that they held a clear vision of what they wanted in their mind, a burning desire for its fulfillment (i.e. they burned the bridges and would not take no for an answer; it was sink or swim), and the conviction or”faith” that it would be theirs. I end this section with a quote from Think and Grow Rich – “If you are one of those who believe that hard work and honesty, alone, will bring riches, perish the thought! It is not true! Riches, when they come in huge quantities, are never the result of HARD work! Riches come, if they come at all, in response to definite demands, based upon the application of definite principles, and not by chance or luck.” You can replace riches with any goal you desire.

Affirmations.

When you think either negatively or positively about a situation, that is an affirmation. True or not, if you say it repeatedly and with emotion, you are giving instructions to your subconscious to act on the thought. It is important to say the affirmation in a relaxed an open way. Skepticism, or the belief that it wont happen, will ensure that it doesn’t – “whether you think you can, or you can’t; you are right” (Henry Ford). The Power of Positive Thinking (W. Clement Stone) offers a simple but effective method – create a list of positive affirmations that produce feelings of belief/trust/faith, that relax you, make you feel good or affirm a desire you want. Write them down on a piece of paper, read them to yourself often and whenever you think in a fearful or negative way about something. Do this without fail until it becomes a habit, this usually takes 21 days. By changing the habitual way you think about things, you can change the habitual way you feel about things and it is the emotional feeling that communicates to the subconscious.

Here are some examples.

(For inducing a state of relaxation and belief – crucial to success).

“Everything will turn out to be just fine”

“Everything will turn out for the best”

“Good things happen to me”

“Expect the best”

One chapter in The Power of Positive Thinking stood out to me, describing a young thirty year old man who despite having “a good family and educational and business opportunities beyond the average”, had a “tragic flair for failure. Everything he touched went wrong, he tried hard enough yet somehow he missed success”. It goes on – he discovered a “secret”, and after a while after practicing this secret, he “lost his flair for failure and he aquired the touch of success. His personality began to focus, his powers fuse”. What was this “secret?”.

He says “Really it was simple, I merely learned the magic of believing. I discovered if you expect the worst you will get the worst, and if you expect the best you will get the best. It all happened through actually practicing a verse in the Bible [auto-suggestion; repetition of positive affirmations]. ‘If thoust can believe, all things are possible to him that believeth.’.” His negative beliefs and habitual ways of thinking about circumstances ensured that they fulfilled themselves. By changing his habitual thinking (thereby changing his subconscious), he changed his results.

(For attaining wealth)

“Money comes easily and abundantly,”

“There is more than enough”

They can sound irrational and you can sound like a complete idiot to yourself saying them. But it is the repetition that makes them effective – just read them out over and over again. It is also more effective if you feel the feelings of being wealthy. This is about convincing your subconscious, not conscious and rational mind. It is the subconscious that is responsible for our actions and our success or failure – emotional impulses and habit triumphs over logic and willpower every time. Otherwise people would not things they know to be destructive, again and again.

Repetition of Empowering Material.

Get books like Pyschocybernetics, Think and Grow Rich, Your Invisible Power, As A Man Thinketh, The Secret of the Ages, the Power of Consistency, and read them over and over again (many of the older titles can be found for free online). Take notes. Get audiobook versions of them and listen to them over and over again. Watch videos by Bob Proctor, Tony Robbins, watch "the secret", over and over again. Continue to expose yourself to this kind of material every day for 21 days, and at least intermittently after that. It is the repetition that causes you to internalize the concepts and buy into them, to believe them at a deep level. You will internalize the fact that you have the power to achieve what you want. Whether you think you can, or you can’t; you are right – this will cause you to think and believe that you can. This is a highly effective way of changing your paradigm. You will see that they all contain similar concepts pointing that habitual ways of thinking and feeling create who we are and the world around us, because they influence our subconscious mind.

Understanding yourself is just as important as understanding markets.
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Last edited by TickedOff; November 25th, 2015 at 04:41 AM.
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Normal Wizard
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Also, I think the reason why traders will have an easy time on sim but get roughed up live, is because when on sim they are not thinking of money, it just doesn't come into the equation, so they aren't viewing markets through potential negative beliefs or "scarcity filters" about wealth and don't have the negative sabotaging emotions.

Understanding yourself is just as important as understanding markets.

Last edited by TickedOff; November 22nd, 2015 at 08:36 PM.
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You do NEED to have some solid understanding of price action, or an indicator based trading system that can be profitable with good money management. But I do agree that when it comes down to it, those things do not make a good trader without a belief system that allows you to be comfortable.

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Normal Wizard
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DrewDown View Post
You do NEED to have some solid understanding of price action, or an indicator based trading system that can be profitable with good money management. But I do agree that when it comes down to it, those things do not make a good trader without a belief system that allows you to be comfortable.

Agreed. For a lot of people though I think they are struggling with trading but looking in the wrong place for solutions, i.e. they have a good understanding of price action (or whatever their approach is) and know how to apply it but continue to look for refinements in strategy, when it is their belief system that needs to be changed (i.e. they know what to do and what not to do, but can't seem to do what they need to consistently and instead do what they know to be damaging; self-sabotage). A functional belief system on its own will not produce profit, you need strategy, but the belief system is the foundation because you can have everything else but with negative and self sabotaging beliefs you will either not have success or you will be held back in some way because of subconscious self-sabotage.

Understanding yourself is just as important as understanding markets.
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I like the analogy of a Boat, but I believe (There we go with beliefs again) that the Boat is the System.

If the System has a hole in it, (no proven edge) then no amount of psychology will keep it afloat.

We cannot change what the market is going to do by wishing. No amount of visualization or affirmation will change market behaviour. As traders all we can do is react to what the market is doing.

I agree that you have to believe in your system but that belief comes from using the system and having data to prove the system is viable.

It is hard to find the Truth when you start your search with a preconceived notion of what the Truth will be.
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@TickedOff - if you haven't already, I'd recommend Trading Psychology 2.0: From Best Practices to Best Processes by Brett Steenbargen. Great book.

Wiley: Trading Psychology 2.0: From Best Practices to Best Processes - Brett N. Steenbarger

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Normal Wizard
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deaddog View Post
I like the analogy of a Boat, but I believe (There we go with beliefs again) that the Boat is the System.

If the System has a hole in it, (no proven edge) then no amount of psychology will keep it afloat.

We cannot change what the market is going to do by wishing. No amount of visualization or affirmation will change market behaviour. As traders all we can do is react to what the market is doing.

I agree that you have to believe in your system but that belief comes from using the system and having data to prove the system is viable.

My post is more for people who are having trouble with the psychological side, i.e. they have a system with proven edge but are struggling to execute properly, and they know they have the skill to do so but keep seem to be running into blocks. Exactly like how one can trade really well on sim but fail trading live. Absolutely, you need a system with edge, it is a requirement. And you can know the system works by looking at its data, but subconsciously if you don't believe you are worthy of the money or have wealth blocks (theres never enough money etc) which are pretty much all irrational, but exist at a deep subconscious level due to early childhood conditioning, the results just wont show because they conflict with the beliefs (from involuntary self-sabotage). Even if on a conscious level you acknowledge they are stupid beliefs, and agree that you deserve the money and know your system works, and even say, "I believe I deserve the money", that doesn't mean you do because beliefs lie in the realm of the non-logical, emotional subconscious part of ourselves.

Understanding yourself is just as important as understanding markets.

Last edited by TickedOff; November 23rd, 2015 at 06:39 PM.
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Just found a new book "how to develop a millionaire mind" by T. Harv Eker, 24 pages, very concise and explains very well how our subconscious programming about money literally caps our wealth potential. If you just google it you can find a free pdf.

Understanding yourself is just as important as understanding markets.
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Quoting 
beliefs lie in the realm of the non-logical, emotional subconscious part of ourselves.

While I personally believe worrying about work psychology is a slippery slope i.e. I just mentally quote Frank Herbert: I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration" etc. I am 'deep' but I keep my professional brain very shallow. Just make yourself believe your doing this for someone else and your integrity will force you to do a good job etc. etc.

My recent psychological mentoring of junior I.T. staff was only to show this video and then commenting that sometimes tasks are simply very hard, one may just have to go that far to crack problem. It can be tougher when you don't know what plywood is. If it is too difficult, something is possibly wrong so check with a colleague. It also alerted me to the dudes with insufficient attention span for 3 minutes of video....

To the point: I'm trying to train a much older student/assistant at the moment. He is late 50s, damn smart (retired air-traffic controller) but really struggling with following the simple mechanical trading method I have worked out for him to start with (just on live SIM). He does not ask questions when he is at a brick wall or changes the method and justifies it afterwards. I remind him to pipe up when stuck or thinking of going off-script..he just does not.

I think, maybe.. the primary issue is that he (like I), have not sufficient experience of subconsciously trusting a mentor who is significantly younger . He has buckets of confidence, his amygdala? is very used to being 'the man' and unquestioned in competence through his career. He sees me "knocking it out of the park" every week and it is depressing him already. He is a nice guy but I guess has general old-lion issues?

If your looking through books or online, have you ever seen anything addressing the issue of an older person who is maybe struggling with still being very good, just not as brilliant as when young? Hopefully obviously related to trading, maybe the biography of a trader who started at a much older age or anything else?

Sorry, maybe that is off your topic, I'm not sure I'm defining clearly but may as well ask someone

Rory

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